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Trading Up III: Does Anyone Have Incriminating Photos Of Burnaby Joe?

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Old
06-27-2013, 11:46 AM
  #351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
No but since people assume that since Kesler didn't produce at a young age that Couturier will. I didn't know people can predict the career path of a player who has scored 42 points combined in his first 123 games. Other players have came in at 18, put up seasons a lot better then Couturier and then never improve and reached their ceiling early. Scoring 4 goals in 46 games shows nothing except at the current moment he is a 3rd line center at best.

Considering the Sabres likely were one of if not the first team to use advanced stats, why have they failed to build a good team? I thought advanced stats are the holy grail and the end all to be all. Fact is, this isn't baseball and advanced stats aren't as informative as sabremetrics are. Hockey is a fluid game, not like Baseball. Advanced stats don't tell the whole story and are really being overstated around here. Especially when people like to discount things like goals and points and care more about offensive zone starts or Shots against/60. Does advanced stats differentiate shots that are prime scoring chances against ones that are from the outside and are harmless?
Where do you get the bolded from.

No one acts like advanced stats tell the story, but if you aren't using them (and all stats... people should just stop separating "advanced stats" from regular statistics, they're all the same thing) with your eyeball analysis then you're missing half the picture.

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06-27-2013, 11:48 AM
  #352
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Originally Posted by Rowley Birkin View Post
Seems like overpayment, but on the other hand I'd be happy enough (Couturier is highest value piece of the deal at this stage IMO).

Why not simplify to Miller and 16th for Couturier ?
I don't want to part with the 8th pick, so I'm thinking about that type of deal too.

Miller (Sabres take 50% of salary)
16th overall
roster player, prospect, or pick

for

Couturier

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06-27-2013, 11:49 AM
  #353
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Couturier > 8th
11th > 16th

Miller is the payment for upgrading from 8 to Couturier, and 16 to 11

sure, i'd prefer your deal... but i am attempting to make fair deals...

instead of arguing about Miller's value... I am happy converting his trade value into improving the value of 2 of our most important rebuild assets
Or

Couturier > 16th
with Miller as the difference.

TBH moving back three places is no huge deal unless someone unexpectedly falls to 8... just seems a way of over complicating a proposal. Either way I actually think it makes the basis of a very good deal IF the Flyers wanted Miller badly enough. I still don't think they would move Couturier though even with their trigger happy GM.

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06-27-2013, 11:53 AM
  #354
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Originally Posted by Rowley Birkin View Post
Or

Couturier > 16th
with Miller as the difference.


TBH moving back three places is no huge deal unless someone unexpectedly falls to 8... just seems a way of over complicating a proposal. Either way I actually think it makes the basis of a very good deal IF the Flyers wanted Miller badly enough. I still don't think they would move Couturier though even with their trigger happy GM.
i'd love it if that were the case... but it's just not

look at it from Philly's perspective... what could possibly convince them to give up a 20 yr old stud prospect? to me there are only 2 things... Tyler Myers or getting into the draft range to get a defensemen they covet (maybe Nurse). That's it...

Miller ices the deal

16 for 11... is added in Buffalo favor.

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06-27-2013, 11:59 AM
  #355
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Giving up way too much for a prospect that had a very very shakey and uncertain year.

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06-27-2013, 12:13 PM
  #356
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
i'd love it if that were the case... but it's just not

look at it from Philly's perspective... what could possibly convince them to give up a 20 yr old stud prospect? to me there are only 2 things... Tyler Myers or getting into the draft range to get a defensemen they covet (maybe Nurse). That's it...

Miller ices the deal

16 for 11... is added in Buffalo favor.
Like I said - your original proposal worked for me. I just tried to simplify it while still holding out some hope of getting the player we have been targeting at 8 (who knows, they may also get him at 11).

As I also said before - I don't think they give up Couturier. If they did, it would be because they really wanted Miller, and not a draft pick.

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06-27-2013, 12:28 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by SabresBillsBuffalo View Post
Giving up way too much for a prospect that had a very very shakey and uncertain year.
Couturier had good offensive numbers in the AHL during the lockout and his offensive numbers in the NHL were on par with his rookie year.

His +/- and his lack of improving offensively were the only sort of things that might worry someone.

But, I wouldn't worry about it too much. But, I'm not expecting him to be a #1 C. I'd be very happy with him turning into something akin to a bigger version of Peca. I think he can still get there.

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06-27-2013, 12:36 PM
  #358
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
This was going to be my response. Stafford + 16th for Burmi + 13th is really a perfect deal. Those 3 spots could be the difference between nabbing one of the guys they have in the top few of that tier to not getting one of them.
Agree with you & Jame on this. I would already do the player deal straight up. Would do the player + pick swap deal hands down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I think that's more in reference to players like Schiestel and Lagace...

I'd be shocked if they didn't qualify Adam and stick him in Roch
Agree. Qualify Adam, winger depth insurance for injury call-ups. Keep him as trade sweetener to an organization which would value him more highly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vito_81 View Post
Jame's deal would be fantastic.

Buffalo still gets a very good draft pick this draft as well as a very YOUNG and vital piece for the rebuild.

Some folks seem to forget that Couturier was once among the talk of being the 1st overall selection in 2011 before he slid to... wait for it... 8th overall.

Jame's deal is basically 8th overall for 8th overall. Only Couturier is just as good if not better than what's probably on the board at 8 any ways. AND he's ready to make an impact for Buffalo now. The kid's just 20 years old and he's got stud written all over him.

Sign me up for this everyday of the week.
Me too, fair value for sure. PHI motivated to deal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Carr's Rug View Post
So you're trading away Miller to move up five spots in the draft and to time travel two years into the future with the development of your 8th pick.

I don't hate it...

However, I suspect the Flyers could add.
I would take a 3rd but would really want Matt Read.
Would be even better, but I don't think PHI moves Couterier without slight BUF overpayment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Djp View Post
Miller+ Sekera + 16th for Couts + 11th
Really, really, prefer to keep Sekera, but I could live with that, eventually. I would not lead with that offer, and be very reluctant to offer it. However, if Lindholm / Monahan / Nichuskin gone at 8, then I'd offer Philly the Jame deal, if they balk, consider offering the DJP deal, and then BUF takes Ristolainen / Zadarov / Nurse with the 8th.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
I don't see how having guys like Girgensons and Larsson means that we shouldn't be interested in Couturier. I mean, I very much like Girgensons and Larsson, but even if the two of them develop properly and become top-notch defensive forwards who can play top six minutes, a guy like Couturier, even if he ends up topping out where he is right now, is still a useful piece who would have a role and meaningful place in the lineup.

Even aside from that, there's the fact that Couturier is much, much, much more established than either Girgensons and Larsson are. Larsson is a few months older than Couturier, and to be fair Girgensons is over a year younger, but Couturier has played over 130 games (including playoffs) in the NHL and Larsson and Girgensons combined have played 1 NHL game. Couturier is much more proven than either Girgensons and Larsson, and has a higher floor than either of them. Furthermore, considering their pedigrees and also their performances as pro players so far, it's pretty reasonable to conclude that Couturier has a higher ceiling than either Girgensons and Larsson do.
I'm fine with as many top-9 forwards who can play center on the roster as possible.
Centers playing center (ignoring line assignments):
Grigorenko
Hodgson
Couturier
Porter (4th line)
Centers playing wing:
Girgensons
Larsson
Wingers who can take faceoffs / play center during injuries:
Ennis
Ott
Leino
Wingers:
Foligno
Kaleta
(Vanek / Armia)
Tropp
Flynn
Scott (4th line)
That's 15 forwards for 14 healthy forward spots.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
or multiple dominant 2 way lines, that compete for a cup

Couturier line = Bergeron line
Hodgson/Grigorenko line = Krejci line
Girgensons/Larsson = Marchand line

sprinkle in : Ennis, Stafford, Vanek, Leino, Foligno, Kaleta, Flynn Armia, Kea, Catenacci, etc
Yes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
i'd love it if that were the case... but it's just not

look at it from Philly's perspective... what could possibly convince them to give up a 20 yr old stud prospect? to me there are only 2 things... Tyler Myers or getting into the draft range to get a defensemen they covet (maybe Nurse). That's it...

Miller ices the deal

16 for 11... is added in Buffalo favor.
Agree with the logic.
And therefore, would prefer to keep Sekera and trade 8th pick, as opposed to trading Sekera and using 8th pick to replace the lost Sabre D.

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06-27-2013, 12:40 PM
  #359
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Couturier was at 32%... would a 40% increase in offensive opportunities lead to a significant increase of offensive production... YES, I think so. Assuming that the increase in offensive opportunities was coupled with the improved linemates those situations would likely entail.

add in the additional PP time (non existent), that a growing into a more offensive role would also include... and yes, I think a 50% increase in production after a transition/growth period is actually a rather fair assumption.



I'll judge whatever he does next year, within the context it was done.

your Bergeron example is silly... (post lock out run n gun NHL)... it's still the highest total of his career
context... get some
Oh, there's little doubt you're going to need a whole lot of context when comparing Bergeron's 21 year old season to Couturier's. You're going to have to squeeze every bit of context out of that one. Adjust it for goal inflation, it still won't be close. Does it bother you that "context" has become reality for you? Context matters more than a 7 goal pace. You're too far into the forest to see the trees.

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06-27-2013, 12:42 PM
  #360
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Originally Posted by brian_griffin View Post
Really, really, prefer to keep Sekera, but I could live with that, eventually. I would not lead with that offer, and be very reluctant to offer it. However, if Lindholm / Monahan / Nichuskin gone at 8, then I'd offer Philly the Jame deal, if they balk, consider offering the DJP deal, and then BUF takes Ristolainen / Zadarov / Nurse with the 8th.

[...]

Agree with the logic.
And therefore, would prefer to keep Sekera and trade 8th pick, as opposed to trading Sekera and using 8th pick to replace the lost Sabre D.
Strictly from my perspective and not what makes the most sense for Philly: If Lindholm is there at 8 then I absolutely prefer to trade Sekera. Otherwise, depending on who is there it is either close or heavily leaning towards the #8 instead.

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06-27-2013, 12:56 PM
  #361
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Originally Posted by MLH View Post
Oh, there's little doubt you're going to need a whole lot of context when comparing Bergeron's 21 year old season to Couturier's. You're going to have to squeeze every bit of context out of that one. Adjust it for goal inflation, it still won't be close. Does it bother you that "context" has become reality for you? Context matters more than a 7 goal pace. You're too far into the forest to see the trees.
So he's closer to Kesler than Bergeron? Where do I sign?

It's too damn bad Philly didn't just send him back to the Q. His HF value would've been way, way higher.

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06-27-2013, 12:57 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by MLH View Post
Oh, there's little doubt you're going to need a whole lot of context when comparing Bergeron's 21 year old season to Couturier's. You're going to have to squeeze every bit of context out of that one. Adjust it for goal inflation, it still won't be close. Does it bother you that "context" has become reality for you? Context matters more than a 7 goal pace. You're too far into the forest to see the trees.
that's cool.... the **** in the forest is actually relevant.... you're at 10,000 feet and just see green.

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06-27-2013, 01:00 PM
  #363
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Oh, there's little doubt you're going to need a whole lot of context when comparing Bergeron's 21 year old season to Couturier's. You're going to have to squeeze every bit of context out of that one. Adjust it for goal inflation, it still won't be close. Does it bother you that "context" has become reality for you? Context matters more than a 7 goal pace. You're too far into the forest to see the trees.
Maybe this is just you using weird semantics but context describes reality. That's what context is. A description or understanding of the parameters of reality/a situation/a subject.

I mean, I get what you mean on some level... a forest for the trees critique. The truth is looking at a 7 goal pace without "any context" (in quotes since it's not possible) gives you less understanding of reality than any of the alternatives. The reality that a 7 goal pace was scored at--

Actually let me stop there. Pace is not "reality", it is a projection based on an understanding of the context 4 goals were scored in (which was... 48 games?) and an assumption that everything will remain constant. Not reality. Also not wise in most cases.

--Continuing: The reality that only 4 goals were scored in 48 games is a reality that is understood and accepted no matter how you approach the issue, so people forgetting that reality should not be a legitimate concern.

The analysis and valuation of that 4 goal season or 7 goal pace is what differs based on how you approach the matter, but it's not an issue of reality, it's subjective and involves projection and interpretation regardless of where you're coming from.

James believes Couturier will score 60+ points. It seems to me at this point that we can all understand it is possible (since it's happened many times) that a player in Couturier's exact position could put up the same production and then go on to be a 60+ point scorer. It's also possible that a player in Couturier's exact position doesn't. It doesn't matter what he would have done in a different role this season. This is about development and what different people see in him. So either you see Couturier as having the tools to do it or you don't. All this arguing is going nowhere.

By the way, Couturier scored something like 28 points in 32 AHL games this season, which is about what you expect from an offensively very good 20 year-old prospect.

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06-27-2013, 01:09 PM
  #364
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Couturier had 28 points in 31 AHL games this past season. Cody Hodgson had 30 points in 52 AHL games in 2010-2011. Couturier was 19-20 years old during his season, and Hodgson was 20-21 during his.

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06-27-2013, 01:14 PM
  #365
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Mods - quick question: Is it possible to block any post that contains the following words so I don't have to see them ever again?

Couturier
Couts
Coots
Bergeron
Context

Many thanks.

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06-27-2013, 01:38 PM
  #366
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Originally Posted by AirBriere48 View Post
Mods - quick question: Is it possible to block any post that contains the following words so I don't have to see them ever again?

Couturier
Couts
Coots
Bergeron
Context

Many thanks.
"Couts and "Coots" need to ****ing go, that's for sure.

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06-27-2013, 02:22 PM
  #367
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Originally Posted by Sabresfansince1980 View Post
Differences in opinion are not to be accepted, they are to be laboriously debated to the Nth degree with insults until somebody gives up.
Some sayings from "Poor Homer's (Simpson) Almanac":

Because sometimes the only way you can feel good about yourself is by making someone else look bad. And I'm tired of making other people feel good about themselves.

The code of the schoolyard, Marge! The rules that teach a boy to be a man. Let's see. Don't tattle. Always make fun of those different from you. Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone feels exactly the same way you do. What else ...

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06-27-2013, 02:32 PM
  #368
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So let's wheel this back around to moving up in the draft rather than about possible Miller return outside of the parameters of his use in said move, shall we?

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It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. - Aristotle

Last edited by Chainshot: 06-27-2013 at 03:10 PM.
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06-27-2013, 04:14 PM
  #369
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Patrice Bergeron finished his 2nd NHL season at the age of 20. He scored 31 goals added 42 assists for 73 points in 81 games. The Bruins scored 2.80 goals per game that season.

Sean Couturier finished his 2nd NHL season at the age of 20. Prorating to ignore the lockout, he produced 7 goals and 19 assists for 26 points in 81 games. The Flyers scored 2.77 goals per game that season.

The only logical conclusion is that Couturier will be the far better player because of context! Zone starts! Quality of linemates! Corsi! Bergeron is the low end comparison. Context? Got some now, I have seen the light.


Quote:
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So let's wheel this back around to moving up in the draft rather than about possible Miller return outside of the parameters of his use in said move, shall we?
EDIT: Sorry, done.

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06-27-2013, 04:18 PM
  #370
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Originally Posted by MLH View Post
Patrice Bergeron finished his 2nd NHL season at the age of 20. He scored 31 goals added 42 assists for 73 points in 81 games. The Bruins scored 2.80 goals per game that season.

Sean Couturier finished his 2nd NHL season at the age of 20. Prorating to ignore the lockout, he produced 7 goals and 19 assists for 26 points in 81 games. The Flyers scored 2.77 goals per game that season.

The only logical conclusion is that Couturier will be the far better player because of context! Zone starts! Quality of linemates! Corsi! Bergeron is the low end comparison. Context? Got some now, I have seen the light.
contectual points (not conclusions)
- Max Afinogenov scored 61 points that year (post lockout NHL was a different environment)
- Bergeron got 5 minutes of PP per game and scored 29 PP points (Couturier gets no PP time)
- and yes, QOC, Corsi, Linemates etc are also valid contextual points


Last edited by Chainshot: 06-27-2013 at 04:24 PM. Reason: Cut it out.
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06-27-2013, 05:31 PM
  #371
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3 more days until all my dreams before legacy-dreams.

Thought of the day:

If we want Lindholm/Monahan, and are unsure that Car/Cal/Edm make the right moves to allow that, using a 2nd or 3rd to get to 5 makes sense, selling Carolina on the fact that Nichushkin and/or Nurse/Ristolainen will be there at 8.

Also, https://twitter.com/MikeStrawQCS

Don't know about his credibility, but the march for a top pick continues! I can continue to live the dream until Sunday!

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06-27-2013, 05:33 PM
  #372
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Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
Couturier had 28 points in 31 AHL games this past season. Cody Hodgson had 30 points in 52 AHL games in 2010-2011. Couturier was 19-20 years old during his season, and Hodgson was 20-21 during his.
What were the NHL totals? Because those actually matter.

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06-27-2013, 05:37 PM
  #373
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Originally Posted by SabresBillsBuffalo View Post
Giving up way too much for a prospect that had a very very shakey and uncertain year.
I agree giving up way to much for maybe a 2nd liner

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06-27-2013, 05:48 PM
  #374
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Originally Posted by DYaeger89 View Post
3 more days until all my dreams before legacy-dreams.

Thought of the day:

If we want Lindholm/Monahan, and are unsure that Car/Cal/Edm make the right moves to allow that, using a 2nd or 3rd to get to 5 makes sense, selling Carolina on the fact that Nichushkin and/or Nurse/Ristolainen will be there at 8.

Also, https://twitter.com/MikeStrawQCS

Don't know about his credibility, but the march for a top pick continues! I can continue to live the dream until Sunday!
It appears he's the owner/writer of Queen City Sports. Associated article is: http://queencitysports.net/sabres-ha...a-about-trade/

Quote:
The source said a deal with the Panthers would be contingent on Buffalo acquiring another first round pick and dealing one or both of its two first round picks as well as a roster player, and top-level prospect to the Panthers for the second pick. Itís a move that would allow the Sabres to draft Seth Jones or Jonathan Drouin since Nathan MacKinnon will likely be the number one pick by Colorado.
I put no stock in it/him personally.

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06-27-2013, 07:19 PM
  #375
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Trading up isn't that difficult, I'm helping run our draft in reddit's mock and I just traded Vanek to Minnesota for Granlund and Setoguchi, and, in a move I'm not as sure about, Ennis+Hodgson+8 for Skinner+5.

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