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Trading Up III: Does Anyone Have Incriminating Photos Of Burnaby Joe?

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Old
06-28-2013, 04:58 PM
  #401
Rhett4
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This is really, really odd to me. Why would a team announce, "We might be able to move up!" Either do it...or say you're trying but it's hard like they have been. It's either some silly PR move to make fans interested in the draft or meant as some kind of smokescreen. What it doesn't mean, however, is that they're about to announce any good news.

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06-28-2013, 04:58 PM
  #402
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Within reason of course

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06-28-2013, 04:58 PM
  #403
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerz View Post
But yeah... if this deal isnt all but done DR iw going to get **** for toying with peoples emotions haha
Exactly. Regier just gave some posters on here a ton of ammo if he doesn't trade up.



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Would have to get to 3, at the very least. Nashville loves Barkov.
That's sad to read. He's going to be a beast.

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06-28-2013, 05:01 PM
  #404
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But yeah... if this deal isnt all but done DR iw going to get **** for toying with peoples emotions haha
Gets **** for squashing hopes at the presser. Gets **** for getting hopes up. He should just stop answering questions re draft trades.

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06-28-2013, 05:01 PM
  #405
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If we get into the top 4, I think you start to detect that the rebuild is taking a particular direction. Barkov as the centerpiece gives us a different team identity than, say, Drouin.

If we're picking outside the top 4, I think we're not quite sure we've got a long term impact player.

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06-28-2013, 05:01 PM
  #406
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As others have said, I'm only interested if they can get the the top 4 to grab either Barkov or Drouin. Spending good assets to get to 5 to land Lindholm (who might fall to 8 anyway) would be silly.

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06-28-2013, 05:04 PM
  #407
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To be honest I dont really trust any of the mocks outside the top 4 .. if you have your mind set on a player..gotta grab em.
Well, that's halfways my point. Nobody really knows how picks 5-8 are gonna go. There's a very good chance that you'd be giving up assets for nothing to move those 3 spots, no matter who your heart is set on.

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06-28-2013, 05:06 PM
  #408
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If they trade up to 5 Monahan would be the pick not Lindholm

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06-28-2013, 05:07 PM
  #409
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The Regier interview video is up:

http://video.sabres.nhl.com/videocen...261096&lang=en

Not much. Just a wishy-washy answer that he might have one opportunity to move up...maybe, you know. And he says the marketplace for Miller and Vanek's not open yet.

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06-28-2013, 05:08 PM
  #410
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Would have to get to 3, at the very least. Nashville loves Barkov.
While I think that likely, there's no certainty here. Besides, I don't see such a trade being done BEFORE the pick in question is on the clock. And while Barkov is my guy, if the cost isn't gigantic then Drouin or Jones are still worth trading up for.

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Originally Posted by Rhett4 View Post
This is really, really odd to me. Why would a team announce, "We might be able to move up!" Either do it...or say you're trying but it's hard like they have been. It's either some silly PR move to make fans interested in the draft or meant as some kind of smokescreen. What it doesn't mean, however, is that they're about to announce any good news.
I don't see what the hell Buffalo cares about fans being interested in the draft, so I don't buy that. Wait for the video and we'll see in what context Darcy said what he said. I'm sure he was asked questions and answered them.

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As others have said, I'm only interested if they can get the the top 4 to grab either Barkov or Drouin. Spending good assets to get to 5 to land Lindholm (who might fall to 8 anyway) would be silly.
It's not silly, especially if the cost isn't a big deal. Many see Lindholm as the clear #5 prospect and see there being a top 5 not a top 4. He may fall but if you're high on him then that's a huge risk, because we'd be quite lucky for him to fall. We'd be lucky for either of he or Monahan to fall and while there's a fair chance one of them will, there's no telling which. So if you grade Lindholm much higher than Monahan, that matters.

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06-28-2013, 05:10 PM
  #411
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Ok..just listened. .. false alarm we aint moving up

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06-28-2013, 05:11 PM
  #412
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Ok..just listened. .. false alarm we aint moving up
Yeah, the Sabres Twitter feed made that sound way more important than it was. Anything to drive web traffic! Oh, Craig, this ain't the Huffington Post. Less sensationalism, please.

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06-28-2013, 05:12 PM
  #413
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If we trade up to 5 and then draft Risto or Nurse the reactions on here will be hilarious!

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06-28-2013, 05:18 PM
  #414
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Regier also sounded like he was saying not to expect any Miller/Vanek trades unti after UFA, if at all.

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06-28-2013, 05:20 PM
  #415
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The only thing I take away from that is ****, we're not going to get any kind of draft asset from Miller and Vanek.

Here we go, the perpetual retool!

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06-28-2013, 05:23 PM
  #416
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
The only thing I take away from that is ****, we're not going to get any kind of draft asset from Miller and Vanek.

Here we go, the perpetual retool!
All it means is we won't get anything in this draft. Nothing wrong with that, this gives teams time to possibly talk extension before making a trade. We need assets in next year's draft too.

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06-28-2013, 05:24 PM
  #417
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
All it means is we won't get anything in this draft. Nothing wrong with that, this gives teams time to possibly talk extension before making a trade. We need assets in next year's draft too.
(a) not nearly as good of a draft.
(b) personally, I think their value only diminishes from here on out.
(c) is there really any chance of a sign and trade? Why would Miller or Vanek sign an extension on those terms?

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06-28-2013, 05:35 PM
  #418
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
(a) not nearly as good of a draft.
(b) personally, I think their value only diminishes from here on out.
(c) is there really any chance of a sign and trade? Why would Miller or Vanek sign an extension on those terms?
Darcy said other teams are preoccupied with other avenues of player acquisition. What's he going to do, force them to focus only on Miller and Vanek? The only way to do that is to give them a great price, which indicates that, no, the return probably won't be better now than in a couple weeks.

Why wouldn't Vanek or Miller be open to signing extensions with a playoff team? I'm not saying they would sign one, but I can't imagine them not being open to it. Let's say for the sake of argument Pittsburgh trades Letang. They have interest in Vanek. You're saying Vanek wouldn't even consider talking extension with them?

With regards to the draft not being better next year, yes it looks that way but as a practical matter so what? If you get #10 overall in either draft you'll get as good of a player if you choose the right one, you just have to choose a bit harder. That's why we pay our scouting staff, and it's a scouting staff that appears to have done well since it started and now has more resources than it did a few years ago (with the tape-heavy scouting).

Another aspect to that is if you try trading Vanek to a team for a specific pick in this draft a team might say "no thanks, we know we're picking ___ overall and like the options we think will be there". Teams are generally more likely to give up picks in the next draft where they have no idea where they'll finish. Now, that could go either way for us but I think it increases the chance of getting picks in addition to other assets in a deal.

I'm spinning this positively but I'm not saying it is definitely positive, but what's Darcy to do about it? He can't really do anything, if teams aren't hot for a deal on those two right now then they're more likely to be in a couple weeks.

No one should have gotten the idea in their head that if Miller and Vanek were going to be traded it'd happen before the completion of the draft or that it is necessarily the most ideal time to do it.

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06-28-2013, 05:54 PM
  #419
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
The only way to do that is to give them a great price, which indicates that, no, the return probably won't be better now than in a couple weeks.
Darcy said he was basically waiting for everybody to be done in the UFA market before shopping Vanek and Miler. Meaning most teams will have met their need already. I think the slack in aggregate demand around the league at that point will probably outweigh any marginal increase in appetite you get from a few teams that missed out.

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Why wouldn't Vanek or Miller be open to signing extensions with a playoff team? I'm not saying they would sign one, but I can't imagine them not being open to it. Let's say for the sake of argument Pittsburgh trades Letang. They have interest in Vanek. You're saying Vanek wouldn't even consider talking extension with them?
Of course not, what I was saying is we can't sign them first with the promise to trade them. I don't recall a team ever negotiating trades simultaneously with letting the player negotiate hypothetical contracts with each potential trading partner and then the team adjusting how much they ask for in a trade based on those separate talks. Do you have any examples?

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With regards to the draft not being better next year, yes it looks that way but as a practical matter so what? If you get #10 overall in either draft you'll get as good of a player if you choose the right one, you just have to choose a bit harder. That's why we pay our scouting staff, and it's a scouting staff that appears to have done well since it started and now has more resources than it did a few years ago (with the tape-heavy scouting).
Everyone who ever makes this argument comes off sounding like they're 10 years old. There's no way to just choose harder. Every team pays a scouting department. The last time any team had any kind of real drafting advantage was when Detroit was the only team scouting the other half of the planet. Unless there's a third half of the planet out there that I'm not aware of, it's not happening again. Every team makes their best guess and then prays, and how well they do usually corresponds over a long enough time with where they picked and how deep the draft was overall. You might as well just pick better lottery numbers.

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Another aspect to that is if you try trading Vanek to a team for a specific pick in this draft a team might say "no thanks, we know we're picking ___ overall and like the options we think will be there". Teams are generally more likely to give up picks in the next draft where they have no idea where they'll finish. Now, that could go either way for us but I think it increases the chance of getting picks in addition to other assets in a deal.

I'm spinning this positively but I'm not saying it is definitely positive, but what's Darcy to do about it? He can't really do anything, if teams aren't hot for a deal on those two right now then they're more likely to be in a couple weeks.

No one should have gotten the idea in their head that if Miller and Vanek were going to be traded it'd happen before the completion of the draft or that it is necessarily the most ideal time to do it.
It's the best draft in the last decade and we've got the most present assets that need to go that we've had since Dominik Hasek asked for a trade. I can't really think of any more opportune circumstances to kick start a rebuild than that. I respect that maybe the market isn't there, but I also don't just blanket trust everything Darcy says. Otherwise he's basically writing our opinions for us. If we can't even turn our present assets into futures at this exceptional draft, I'm not particularly holding my breath on anything coming of this rebuild.

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06-28-2013, 06:35 PM
  #420
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Darcy said he was basically waiting for everybody to be done in the UFA market before shopping Vanek and Miler. Meaning most teams will have met their need already. I think the slack in aggregate demand around the league at that point will probably outweigh any marginal increase in appetite you get from a few teams that missed out.
There are hardly any players out there who can fill Vanek's shoes, so I simply disagree strongly. Miller's another story. There is competition out there. The problem is that no one is going to want to give up assets for a goalie with 1 year left when they can get one on the contract they want for free. You have to wait and see how it shakes out, there's really no choice.


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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Of course not, what I was saying is we can't sign them first with the promise to trade them. I don't recall a team ever negotiating trades simultaneously with letting the player negotiate hypothetical contracts with each potential trading partner and then the team adjusting how much they ask for in a trade based on those separate talks. Do you have any examples?
You assumed the wrong thing then because I'm talking about letting teams talk to him about extensions. Yes, it happens. I guess I could try and search up an obvious example later.

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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Everyone who ever makes this argument comes off sounding like they're 10 years old. There's no way to just choose harder. Every team pays a scouting department. The last time any team had any kind of real drafting advantage was when Detroit was the only team scouting the other half of the planet. Unless there's a third half of the planet out there that I'm not aware of, it's not happening again. Every team makes their best guess and then prays, and how well they do usually corresponds over a long enough time with where they picked and how deep the draft was overall. You might as well just pick better lottery numbers.
Please, you're taking "choose harder" way too literally. "Choose more carefully". Satisfied? Instead of maybe 4 viable candidates at #10 you have 2. So what?

It's ridiculous to say that scouting staffs do not have advantages over each other. They are not even. It's not the point, anyhow. The point is the talent will be there, you just may not have as many options.

The draft is absolutely nothing like the lottery. Talk about sounding like a 10 year old...

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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
It's the best draft in the last decade and we've got the most present assets that need to go that we've had since Dominik Hasek asked for a trade. I can't really think of any more opportune circumstances to kick start a rebuild than that. I respect that maybe the market isn't there, but I also don't just blanket trust everything Darcy says. Otherwise he's basically writing our opinions for us. If we can't even turn our present assets into futures at this exceptional draft, I'm not particularly holding my breath on anything coming of this rebuild.
It only looks like the best draft in a decade. Saying it is the best draft in a decade is silly. We don't know that yet. We especially don't know in what way it is great. Clearly the top end is great.

However, people do feel that at this point it is a great draft. That's sort of the point, isn't it? A team is less likely to give up a #10 in this draft knowing what will be available to them than they are to give up a 1st when they don't know where it'll end up nor what quality of player will be available.

If we can't trade Vanek and Miller for draft picks in this draft, you'd question the entire rebuild? OK, that definitely sounds like a 10 year old. Someone gave you the wrong color bike I suspect...


What do you want Darcy to do exactly? It's so important to trade these guys before the draft that we do so for whatever we can get?

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06-28-2013, 07:11 PM
  #421
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There are hardly any players out there who can fill Vanek's shoes, so I simply disagree strongly.

Then why is he waiting? His point was that other teams think they can get a Vanek in UFA. If they can't.....how does waiting help?


Please, you're taking "choose harder" way too literally. "Choose more carefully". Satisfied? Instead of maybe 4 viable candidates at #10 you have 2. So what?

It's ridiculous to say that scouting staffs do not have advantages over each other. They are not even. It's not the point, anyhow. The point is the talent will be there, you just may not have as many options.

The draft is absolutely nothing like the lottery. Talk about sounding like a 10 year old...

If there's some way to just draft better that we're all missing, you'd better go get an NHL job. Accept the truth: thousands of scouts from across the planet watch thousands of hours of tape every year, and half of that just goes into producing Central Scouting rankings. The Central Scouting rankings end up looking nothing like who actually pans out, at all. Then, two days before the draft, nobody has any idea who will pick what players, outside of maybe #1, and the best hockey minds on the planet can't agree on who drafted the best players after it's done, let alone be right about it. "Narrow it down to two players instead of four?" WTF is that even supposed to mean? Fine, let's say Colorado narrows it down to Drouin and Barkov. Are they doing it right? Are they doing it wrong? Can you name one person on the planet, or even a system of analysis, that would be able to actually tell us????


If we can't trade Vanek and Miller for draft picks in this draft, you'd question the entire rebuild? OK, that definitely sounds like a 10 year old. Someone gave you the wrong color bike I suspect...

What, you think its probable that Stanley Cups just happen to you because you're special? You've got to make the best of a lot of opportunities. I don't know why anyone smart would think it's likely that the next core of Sabres wins a cup no matter what they do, but it just makes it that much harder if you don't even move your dwindling assets trying to make them the best core they can be.

What do you want Darcy to do exactly? It's so important to trade these guys before the draft that we do so for whatever we can get?

I'm very averse to criticizing Darcy. I don't know what the conversations are like on the phone. But basically, this is that one exception, because it's about as clear from 500 yards what you need to do as it's ever going to be. I've never felt a situation was as obvious in the 16 years I've been a fan. You need big futures. You have big present assets that want out. There's a one day window where the best futures we've seen in a decade will be up for taking. Do the math. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to do something smart if he misses on this go round, but it's like driving past a gas station in the desert because you think there's better priced gas in the next few miles. You'd better be daaaaaamn right, or you're going to look like a fool. And no, I don't particularly have any faith that the prospects in the system at this time will win a Stanley Cup, so he'd better turn some kind of asset into blue chips.
In bold.

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06-28-2013, 07:18 PM
  #422
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Same here, unless you can guarantee Drouin or Barkov are there.
I disagree. Getting us into the top 6 virtually guarantees us one of Barkov/Monahan/Lindholm IMO. That's where we need to be. Top 6.

Mac
Barkov
Druin
Lindholm
Jones
Monahan - Boom

That's the order with us drafting at 6, boys. Write it down.

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06-28-2013, 07:21 PM
  #423
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I disagree. Getting us into the top 6 virtually guarantees us one of Barkov/Monahan/Lindholm IMO. That's where we need to be. Top 6.
So, in the abstract, we'd all prefer #6 to #8, but what would you give up for #6?

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06-28-2013, 07:31 PM
  #424
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So, in the abstract, we'd all prefer #6 to #8, but what would you give up for #6?
6+22+28 for 8+16+38

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06-28-2013, 07:35 PM
  #425
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6+22+28 for 8+16+38
Those in the draft thread were just suggesting 22 + 28 for 16 + 38

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