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Trading Up III: Does Anyone Have Incriminating Photos Of Burnaby Joe?

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06-28-2013, 07:53 PM
  #426
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Regier also sounded like he was saying not to expect any Miller/Vanek trades unti after UFA, if at all.
Then I better see a Vanek contract done. I cant take BS from this GM anymore.

Miller I dont really care if they keep him until the deadline or not, he may be worth more then, but Vanek is a must trade at the draft or a must re-sign now. You are not taking a player like Vanek into the season on his last year when he has already hinted he didnt want a rebuild. It would just be stupid. Many things could happen, and all of them go against the GM getting the best deal for his team.

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06-28-2013, 08:00 PM
  #427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
In bold.
I can't quote this properly because it's already a quote so I'll just run through quick:

Darcy is waiting with Vanek presumably because teams aren't making him worthwhile offers. What can he do about that? Regarding teams losing interest in Vanek via FA's, there are only so many decent FAs and many more teams will be interested in them than have realistic interest in Vanek, because Vanek costs assets and is a top line player. Regardless of what happens in FA, I would think there'll be a few teams with worthwhile interest in Vanek.

Re: Scouting, selection options, and the difference in the drafts, you're just consistently missing my point and I'm not sure anything I say is going to change that. I'll just stress this point instead: Most teams this year are far less likely to include this year's pick because they know where it is and they know who'll more or less be available with it. So, your preference doesn't matter, of course my and everyone's preference is to have, say, #20 in this draft than what will likely be around #20 next draft. A team's going to have that same preference.

The likelihood is that Darcy will be looking for a combination of roster player, pick, and prospect in these deals if he can help it. It's not like the deal will be centered around draft picks or mostly draft picks. So, I'm not sure we'd be looking at a great draft pick either way but we're more likely to get a 1st rounder as part of the return if it's in next year's draft, unless it's like #28 in this year's. In such a case, I'd just as soon have that team's pick next year as at least there's a chance it finishes as a better pick than #28.

Let's say we are making a trade with the Islanders. I'd rather have their 1st next year than 15th overall this year. There's no guarantee they'll make the playoffs next year in the new divisional system. Any team that misses the playoffs has a shot at winning the lottery for #1. I could see them take a step back with all the parity in the league and the fact they were a borderline team to begin with. There are surely other examples where the pick next year is a better gamble than this year.

Re: the rest
I'd like to stockpile 1st rounder in this draft, maybe high 2nds to a lesser extent. But it's not something you can just say and then do. Is Darcy trying to do it as much as I would? Probably not, but I can't really say for sure. I don't think he's intent on truly blowing the team up whereas I would feel comfortable moving Miller, Vanek, Stafford, my fav dude Sekera and maybe some other pieces... not necessarily straight up for picks, but I'd be looking for 1sts and 2nds where I could get them.

That's not the only or necessarily even the best way to get good, young talent, though. Deals can be made for prospects that more is known about or young players on the cusp of cracking the NHL. Darcy knows more about what's out there than I do. I question his commitment to blowing it up, as I don't think that's what he has in mind. What I don't question is his handling of Vanek and Miller right now because he knows the trade market far better than we do. In hindsight I might complain, depending on what we get (if he even trades them). Right now, not so much?

You're entitled to feel differently but I'll side with Darcy that the best shot at good return isn't available right now. It's not like he said "I'm waiting to trade them." If a team makes a good offer then that's that. Draft day is more likely to open things up. If it looks like Darcy was wrong then I'm going to roast him because, like you, all things being equal I'd like to see us have another 1st in this draft.

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06-28-2013, 08:02 PM
  #428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
Then I better see a Vanek contract done. I cant take BS from this GM anymore.

Miller I dont really care if they keep him until the deadline or not, he may be worth more then, but Vanek is a must trade at the draft or a must re-sign now. You are not taking a player like Vanek into the season on his last year when he has already hinted he didnt want a rebuild. It would just be stupid. Many things could happen, and all of them go against the GM getting the best deal for his team.
Vanek's the player more likely to be worth more at the deadline. When was the last time you saw a goalie traded at the deadline? Bishop was last year but that wasn't for a playoff run.

Guys, it's not like Darcy said "I'll trade them in a month". Free agency is a week away. Teams can start meeting/negotiating with free agents in 3 days. Where do you get that he's going to take them into the season without an extension?

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06-28-2013, 08:16 PM
  #429
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
Vanek's the player more likely to be worth more at the deadline. When was the last time you saw a goalie traded at the deadline? Bishop was last year but that wasn't for a playoff run.

Guys, it's not like Darcy said "I'll trade them in a month". Free agency is a week away. Teams can start meeting/negotiating with free agents in 3 days. Where do you get that he's going to take them into the season without an extension?
Goalies like Miller rarely are available at the deadline.

Vanek had his 1st point per game season in 6 years, his value should be highest now. Plus Vanek was already on the market last deadline. Its not like you trade Vanek as a rent a player, this guy is a 1st line scoring wing only 29.

Sign the guy or trade him.

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06-28-2013, 08:20 PM
  #430
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06-28-2013, 08:27 PM
  #431
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Here's a scenario. Say Buffalo pays through the nose to get to the 4th pick (say the Preds like Hodgson and 8 or whatever)...and MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov go 1,2,3. Do you say, "I can't believe Jones fell to four!" or are you pissed you gave up your best center for a defenseman? I'm not sure there can be a middle ground of emotions.

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06-28-2013, 08:30 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by Rhett4 View Post
Here's a scenario. Say Buffalo pays through the nose to get to the 4th pick (say the Preds like Hodgson and 8 or whatever)...and MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov go 1,2,3. Do you say, "I can't believe Jones fell to four!" or are you pissed you gave up your best center for a defenseman? I'm not sure there can be a middle ground of emotions.
You take Jones and run.

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06-28-2013, 08:30 PM
  #433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
Goalies like Miller rarely are available at the deadline.

Vanek had his 1st point per game season in 6 years, his value should be highest now. Plus Vanek was already on the market last deadline. Its not like you trade Vanek as a rent a player, this guy is a 1st line scoring wing only 29.

Sign the guy or trade him.
I'd prefer to trade Vanek now too, but he'd hold value better at the deadline than Miller with the possibility of you even getting a better deal. I don't think it's more likely you'd get a better deal, but it's more possible than it is with Miller. In Miller's case it's such an odd situation that you can't really say what would happen. I think it's much more important to trade Miller now.

The most important thing I wanted to get across in my comment is that we aren't anywhere near that point. The offseason just started. I'm not going to put much thought into this concern until it's near August and no trade or extension in sight.

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06-28-2013, 08:33 PM
  #434
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When's the last time a contender brought in a new starting goalie at the deadline? Nobody in a contender's position changes the most important position on the ice (cue Jame) with 20 games left to go unless they're doing it for a huge upgrade, and if they need a huge upgrade in goal they're probably not in a contender's position in the first place.

Miller is moving this offseason or he's walking next summer. Period. Okay, one caveat: maybe a team brings him in to be a backup/1B kind of guy at the deadline if they're not totally sure about their guy, but if you have to make that kind of trade, you're going to get a backup goaltender's ransom, i.e., not much.

Darcy really has a few weeks tops to move Miller. If he doesn't, I'm gonna comfortably guarantee you he's pissing away assets.

Vanek might move for more at the deadline, but it's very unlikely. He's coming off a season where he scored at a 40 goal pace. The last three normal seasons, he scored 26, 28, 32. With even less talent around him than before, it's very likely you're trying to shop a 25 goal scorer at the deadline. NOW Vanek has value. Sit on your hands, and again, I think it's very likely you're pissing away value.

And again, if you're comfortable with the idea that they should be moved this offseason, I don't see how you think it's preferable to take the best deal later in the summer than to take the best deal now, when great draft picks are in play. That's just Hamlet thinking.

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06-28-2013, 08:36 PM
  #435
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I'd prefer to trade Vanek now too, but he'd hold value better at the deadline than Miller with the possibility of you even getting a better deal. I don't think it's more likely you'd get a better deal, but it's more possible than it is with Miller. In Miller's case it's such an odd situation that you can't really say what would happen. I think it's much more important to trade Miller now.

The most important thing I wanted to get across in my comment is that we aren't anywhere near that point. The offseason just started. I'm not going to put much thought into this concern until it's near August and no trade or extension in sight.
I dont really understand. Miller IMO would be in more demand at teh deadline because I think more teams would be interested.

I dont really see how Vanek's value goes up at the dead line. Who is trading the farm the for a rent a player? This a is a 1st line player.

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06-28-2013, 08:38 PM
  #436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
I dont really understand. Miller IMO would be in more demand at teh deadline because I think more teams would be interested.

I dont really see how Vanek's value goes up at the dead line. Who is trading the farm the for a rent a player? This a is a 1st line player.
Who's trading the farm for Vanek at all? He's already a rental unless there's an extension in place. At the deadline there are more/different teams that'd have interest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
And again, if you're comfortable with the idea that they should be moved this offseason, I don't see how you think it's preferable to take the best deal later in the summer than to take the best deal now, when great draft picks are in play. That's just Hamlet thinking.
You're assuming there is a "best deal" worthy of taking right now. Did it sound like that to you in Darcy's interview? Sure didn't to me.

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06-28-2013, 08:40 PM
  #437
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Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
I dont really understand. Miller IMO would be in more demand at teh deadline because I think more teams would be interested.

I dont really see how Vanek's value goes up at the dead line. Who is trading the farm the for a rent a player? This a is a 1st line player.
When's the last time a contender totally ditched their starting goaltender for a rental at the deadline with 20 games left in the season? Maybe somebody might want insurance, and would be willing to pay you what a backup goaltender is worth to them. But if they're in a contending position at the deadline, their goaltending has to be at least alright. You move goaltenders in the offseason for this reason. A goaltender isn't looked at as that last piece to get you over the hump. A goaltender is a cornerstone piece.

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06-28-2013, 08:43 PM
  #438
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
You're assuming there is a "best deal" worthy of taking right now. Did it sound like that to you in Darcy's interview? Sure didn't to me.
And you're assuming that the deal will get better if we just wait long enough without any real reason why it should.

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06-28-2013, 08:46 PM
  #439
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
Who's trading the farm for Vanek at all? He's already a rental unless there's an extension in place. At the deadline there are more/different teams that'd have interest.



You're assuming there is a "best deal" worthy of taking right now. Did it sound like that to you in Darcy's interview? Sure didn't to me.
Players like Vanek are not rent a players.

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06-28-2013, 08:48 PM
  #440
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
And you're assuming that the deal will get better if we just wait long enough without any real reason why it should.
I'm not assuming anything. I'm attempting to rationalize what is being presented to us as the reality.

I'm not the one listening to offers now and professionally judging the landscape and neither are you. Darcy implied that concrete interest is not high and that he expects it to increase as this period progresses through the draft and into the start of free agency. On what basis do we question that?

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06-28-2013, 08:52 PM
  #441
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
Players like Vanek are not rent a players.
Except he is, because he is on an expiring contract. The only way that changes is if he negotiates an extension. What was it I clearly said in my comment? I said if he's traded without having negotiated an extension as part of the trade, then he's essentially a rental already. His return will not be great without that extension.

Can a team trade for him without the extension and then extend him as time goes on? Yes, but that's a huge risk and they're going to offer assets accordingly.

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06-28-2013, 08:55 PM
  #442
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When's the last time a contender totally ditched their starting goaltender for a rental at the deadline with 20 games left in the season? Maybe somebody might want insurance, and would be willing to pay you what a backup goaltender is worth to them. But if they're in a contending position at the deadline, their goaltending has to be at least alright. You move goaltenders in the offseason for this reason. A goaltender isn't looked at as that last piece to get you over the hump. A goaltender is a cornerstone piece.
If you are looking for 1st round pick and a top prospect for Miller you are more likely to get it at the deadline from a team thinking they are a goalie away.

With vanek I just dont see how hos stock goes higher.

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06-28-2013, 08:56 PM
  #443
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They might be able to move up? Well, no ****. I might become the next Pope. It's bizarre Darcy would announce that.

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06-28-2013, 08:56 PM
  #444
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Originally Posted by Rhett4 View Post
Here's a scenario. Say Buffalo pays through the nose to get to the 4th pick (say the Preds like Hodgson and 8 or whatever)...and MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov go 1,2,3. Do you say, "I can't believe Jones fell to four!" or are you pissed you gave up your best center for a defenseman? I'm not sure there can be a middle ground of emotions.
Buffalo would have to judge how much their need at C necessitates selecting Monahan/Lindholm vs taking BPA and selecting Jones.

Normally I'd say take Jones, but Buffalo isn't half bad with RHDs but they sure as hell need a top-two C.

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06-28-2013, 08:57 PM
  #445
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Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
If you are looking for 1st round pick and a top prospect for Miller you are more likely to get it at the deadline from a team thinking they are a goalie away.

With vanek I just dont see how hos stock goes higher.
If you are looking for a 1st round pick and a top prospect the only way you have any chance is in the offseason by allowing the team to negotiate an extension with Miller.

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06-28-2013, 08:58 PM
  #446
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Buffalo would have to judge how much their need at C necessitates selecting Monahan/Lindholm vs taking BPA and selecting Jones.

Normally I'd say take Jones, but Buffalo isn't half bad with RHDs but they sure as hell need a top-two C.
Take Jones. You'll be able to trade him in a couple years and get huge return. I guarantee it. That's the personal Paxon guarantee.

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06-28-2013, 09:00 PM
  #447
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Except he is, because he is on an expiring contract. The only way that changes is if he negotiates an extension. What was it I clearly said in my comment? I said if he's traded without having negotiated an extension as part of the trade, then he's essentially a rental already. His return will not be great without that extension.

Can a team trade for him without the extension and then extend him as time goes on? Yes, but that's a huge risk and they're going to offer assets accordingly.
I cant even remember a player like that in traded in his prime as a rent a player. Hossa maybe? I dont think the THrashers did very well there.

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06-28-2013, 09:01 PM
  #448
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Last guy I heard guaranteeing stuff got axed as his own company's CEO.

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06-28-2013, 09:04 PM
  #449
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Last guy I heard guaranteeing stuff got axed as his own company's CEO.



anyone not knowing the joke, look up Men's Warehouse

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06-28-2013, 09:04 PM
  #450
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I'm not assuming anything. I'm attempting to rationalize what is being presented to us as the reality.

I'm not the one listening to offers now and professionally judging the landscape and neither are you. Darcy implied that concrete interest is not high and that he expects it to increase as this period progresses through the draft and into the start of free agency. On what basis do we question that?
That he could be wrong? I mean, if Darcy tells you the sky is green, I'm going to at least ask for, expect, and analyze the reason for why he supposes that to be true.

The reason he gave was that once teams have spent all their UFA dollars, they'll be more interested in trading away assets for players, but I don't think he's right. We're trying to unload $7M players here. The cap is $64M. More teams will have less room, and the teams that wanted scorers/goalies the worst will have already gotten them. The only guys left on the market will be the ones who either (a) couldn't afford to throw money at players (in which case why would they be able to take on these contracts) or (b) just didn't want them badly enough, in which case why would they offer us the best deal anyways.

A team that really wants a top flight scorer/goalie is more likely to take one from you now with certainty, without the risk of having to bid with 29 other teams for a second rate one in July. That seems at least as persuasive to me as the argument that teams will want to trade more to you in mid-July. Also, consider this is a buyer's year. There's more players on the market with buyouts than usual. In a buyer's year, you never want to be the last person with merchandise on the market.

Compound that with this being a guy who notoriously likes to sit on his hands and wait in hopes that something shiny falls into his lap. That's his MO in the league. Yes, I'm extremely ****ing dubious when he tells you he's going to sit on his hands for a while and can't articulate a compelling reason why. Yes, I would prefer he trade them for the best deal available now.


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