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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk IV

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Old
06-27-2013, 10:30 AM
  #326
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
For sure, even with "good" scouting - however you choose to define it - the draft is still a numbers game. Problem with being a "contending" team is there is always pressure to deal picks at the deadline for that piece or two that fills holes and sets you up for a cup run. Gillis has been as guilty if this as Nonis and it is having the same effect on our prospect pool. Our first rounders have actually been fairly good, esp when you factor in our low draft position but it is the lack of prospects out of the second and third rounds - where teams generally are able to find a player every 2 or 3 years - that we've fallen behind in part to some bad luck (Sauve, Rodin injuries) as well as trading away picks.
The more I read here, the more I think (maybe) this lack of a 'young' core was not avoidable. We have been a good team, and drafting lower in the first round for several years now, so our chances of building a Cup competetive 'young' core were very slim - if not 'nil'. Could this be a good thing? We tried very hard to win a Cup, and now we are going to 'fall off a cliff' and head to the bottom of the league, and draft very high for a few years in a row?

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06-27-2013, 10:32 AM
  #327
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
For sure, even with "good" scouting - however you choose to define it - the draft is still a numbers game. Problem with being a "contending" team is there is always pressure to deal picks at the deadline for that piece or two that fills holes and sets you up for a cup run. Gillis has been as guilty if this as Nonis and it is having the same effect on our prospect pool. Our first rounders have actually been fairly good, esp when you factor in our low draft position but it is the lack of prospects out of the second and third rounds - where teams generally are able to find a player every 2 or 3 years - that we've fallen behind in part to some bad luck (Sauve, Rodin injuries) as well as trading away picks.

As well as drafting poorly from 31-90. It's lack of picks, bad luck, and making unorthodox decisions in that mid-range that have led to poor execution in that range. For the most part, the drafting _seems_ good in the 1st, and in the later rounds (4-7), but the mid picks are hurting this team in a very real sense. The impact is being felt.

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06-27-2013, 10:47 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
As well as drafting poorly from 31-90. It's lack of picks, bad luck, and making unorthodox decisions in that mid-range that have led to poor execution in that range. For the most part, the drafting _seems_ good in the 1st, and in the later rounds (4-7), but the mid picks are hurting this team in a very real sense. The impact is being felt.

The bolded is why the Mallet pick is so frustrating. To see Gillis and/or our scouts try to "outsmart" everyone by looking for players who were further in their development - despite having put up terrible numbers in their draft and post-draft year - rather than stick to the most basic approach of drafting for potential is maddening. I was relieved to hear that they have abandoned this approach already, but it has already (potentially) cost us a 2nd pick in a system where 2nd picks are already a rare commodity. Stop trying to "think outside the box" and start doing a better job of thinking in the damn box!

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06-27-2013, 10:53 AM
  #329
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The more I read here, the more I think (maybe) this lack of a 'young' core was not avoidable. We have been a good team, and drafting lower in the first round for several years now, so our chances of building a Cup competetive 'young' core were very slim - if not 'nil'. Could this be a good thing? We tried very hard to win a Cup, and now we are going to 'fall off a cliff' and head to the bottom of the league, and draft very high for a few years in a row?

That is how I see it at least. If you really think about it, we've actually been *contending* since about 2003 with the WCE, so our total window has been about a decade, the same as teams like Chicago, Boston, and LA will likely have with their current core. We did a mini re-tool after 2006 and again in 2008, then resumed our chase for the cup. It isn't impossible that our window stays open beyond the next couple of years, but for every Detroit that seems to contend for 20 years, there is a New Jersey, Dallas, and Colorado that falls off a cliff once their core ages and/or retires. Hockey is inherently cyclical, the only thing that varies is the length of the cycles.

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06-27-2013, 11:04 AM
  #330
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
The bolded is why the Mallet pick is so frustrating. To see Gillis and/or our scouts try to "outsmart" everyone by looking for players who were further in their development - despite having put up terrible numbers in their draft and post-draft year - rather than stick to the most basic approach of drafting for potential is maddening. I was relieved to hear that they have abandoned this approach already, but it has already (potentially) cost us a 2nd pick in a system where 2nd picks are already a rare commodity. Stop trying to "think outside the box" and start doing a better job of thinking in the damn box!

Some time ago it was remarked that Mallet was tracking like Austin Watson pre-draft. But on the whole, I agree. The deviation in strategy from the 1st round to the 2nd and 3rd is quite absurd. I think I have always taken issue with it... The whole scouting staff needs to get back to basics here.

Could be worse, the move away from the older draftee could have been delayed for another 2-3 years, instead of correcting it immediately. I'm glad there will be an adjustment here.

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06-27-2013, 11:10 AM
  #331
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That is how I see it at least. If you really think about it, we've actually been *contending* since about 2003 with the WCE, so our total window has been about a decade, the same as teams like Chicago, Boston, and LA will likely have with their current core. We did a mini re-tool after 2006 and again in 2008, then resumed our chase for the cup. It isn't impossible that our window stays open beyond the next couple of years, but for every Detroit that seems to contend for 20 years, there is a New Jersey, Dallas, and Colorado that falls off a cliff once their core ages and/or retires. Hockey is inherently cyclical, the only thing that varies is the length of the cycles.
I wonder how many years we will have to be bad' to be good again, and does this all start in 2015, the first draft that is 'post' Sedin?

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06-27-2013, 11:15 AM
  #332
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Im going to just say that at least a number of Gillis' deadline acquistions using picks were retained or good value, same cant be said of Nonis'.


Also doesn't help that the 2007 draft didnt even produce one AHLer...that is straight up pathetic....why can't we just sign better scouts, it's seems easy.

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06-27-2013, 11:22 AM
  #333
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Also doesn't help that the 2007 draft didnt even produce one AHLer...that is straight up pathetic....why can't we just sign better scouts, it's seems easy.
While I don't disagree (2007 was pathetic), it ultimately makes no objective difference if a draft busts before or after players make the AHL. While it is more encouraging to see players develop to a higher level and perhaps signals a better level of scouting (though this isn't necessarily true), it ultimately no better than the former if your AHL players cannot progress to the NHL level.

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06-27-2013, 11:27 AM
  #334
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I wonder how many years we will have to be bad' to be good again, and does this all start in 2015, the first draft that is 'post' Sedin?

Impossible for anyone to say of course. Depends on how Jensen, Gaunce, and Corrado in particular progress since they (IMO) are our only prospects with top 6/4 upside. Also think this draft is a big part of that future, given its depth and talent. Look at how much getting Kesler in 2003 (instead of Pouiliot or O'Sullivan or Stewart) has changed our team's fortunes in the past 10 years. Some teams manage to re-build without ever languishing at the bottom of the league (Ottawa, Dallas) while others weave in and out (Colorado) while others still sink and never seem to get back up (Edmonton). Impossible to say or even guess at this point, or even what things will look like in 2015...

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06-27-2013, 11:28 AM
  #335
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While I don't disagree (2007 was pathetic), it ultimately makes no objective difference if a draft busts before or after players make the AHL. While it is more encouraging to see players develop to a higher level and perhaps signals a better level of scouting (though this isn't necessarily true), it ultimately no better than the former if your AHL players cannot progress to the NHL level.
Objectively sure, subjectively it makes a big difference. The organization, especially now that it owns its own affiliate, is more than just the NHL level and creating competition, even if its just for the cream to rise to the NHL is beneficial.

Obviously you want to produce NHLers, but if you are drafting players that are getting written off before being able to establish as AHLers it is a pretty good sign the people vouching for these picks are inadequate.

I think producing AHLers should be the minimum requirement, not being able to do this means there is something seriously wrong.

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06-27-2013, 11:33 AM
  #336
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Per a Vancouver sun article I can't link right now, Adam tambellini was one of the 63 players we interviewed at the combine. He was interviewed by 21 teams.

Sounds like our western scouting is at least doing their homework this year!

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06-27-2013, 11:34 AM
  #337
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Objectively sure, subjectively it makes a big difference. The organization, especially now that it owns its own affiliate, is more than just the NHL level and creating competition, even if its just for the cream to rise to the NHL is beneficial.

Obviously you want to produce NHLers, but if you are drafting players that are getting written off before being able to establish as AHLers it is a pretty good sign the people vouching for these picks are inadequate.

I think producing AHLers should be the minimum requirement, not being able to do this means there is something seriously wrong.

Perhaps if you are discussing two different organizations or scouting staffs, but the same team that drafted 3 NHL'ers in 2004 also drafted no AHL players in 2007. Did the scouts get objectively worse in 3 years, or was 2007 just an anomaly? Since drafts are all inherently volatile - you can get several hits one year and none the next - I don't think it means a whole lot, except for fan perception perhaps.

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06-27-2013, 11:47 AM
  #338
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For those interested in this stuff, here's a list of the top NHLEs for this year:

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jrh...160237263.html

This list factors in age, so Anthony Duclair comes out looking very interesting.

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06-27-2013, 11:52 AM
  #339
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For those interested in this stuff, here's a list of the top NHLEs for this year:

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jrh...160237263.html

This list factors in age, so Anthony Duclair comes out looking very interesting.
I think Taylor Cammarata is the most interesting guy on that list. Been saying for a while that he should go higher than he's rated. Mentioned back in February that it would be an interesting exercise to draft him, Petan and Andrighetto... between the three of them, you probably end up hitting a homerun with at least one.

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06-27-2013, 11:54 AM
  #340
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I think Taylor Cammarata is the most interesting guy on that list. Been saying for a while that he should go higher than he's rated. Mentioned back in February that it would be an interesting exercise to draft him, Petan and Andrighetto... between the three of them, you probably end up hitting a homerun with at least one.
Yeah, I'm a little skeptical of USHL NHLEs just because of the quality of competition, but it's strange it looks like he's ranked around the third round. Size concerns I guess.

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06-27-2013, 11:54 AM
  #341
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Perhaps if you are discussing two different organizations or scouting staffs, but the same team that drafted 3 NHL'ers in 2004 also drafted no AHL players in 2007. Did the scouts get objectively worse in 3 years, or was 2007 just an anomaly? Since drafts are all inherently volatile - you can get several hits one year and none the next - I don't think it means a whole lot, except for fan perception perhaps.
Saving grace, or silver lining, of 2007 draft was how Gillis turned White (and others) into Erhoff. I am on the "fire Gillis now " bandwagon, but he did make good on the trade.

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06-27-2013, 11:55 AM
  #342
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Yeah, I'm a little skeptical of USHL NHLEs just because of the quality of competition, but it's strange it looks like he's ranked around the third round. Size concerns I guess.
Even ignoring that, his stats are eye-popping no matter how far back you go for the USHL records.

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06-27-2013, 11:58 AM
  #343
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Impossible for anyone to say of course. Depends on how Jensen, Gaunce, and Corrado in particular progress since they (IMO) are our only prospects with top 6/4 upside. Also think this draft is a big part of that future, given its depth and talent. Look at how much getting Kesler in 2003 (instead of Pouiliot or O'Sullivan or Stewart) has changed our team's fortunes in the past 10 years. Some teams manage to re-build without ever languishing at the bottom of the league (Ottawa, Dallas) while others weave in and out (Colorado) while others still sink and never seem to get back up (Edmonton). Impossible to say or even guess at this point, or even what things will look like in 2015...
From what I am learning here, chances of drafting key Cup contending 'core' players (forwards anyway - these unique D-man the Canucks have never had seem to be drafted later) goes way up, when a team drafts in the top 10?

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06-27-2013, 11:59 AM
  #344
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
For those interested in this stuff, here's a list of the top NHLEs for this year:

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jrh...160237263.html

This list factors in age, so Anthony Duclair comes out looking very interesting.
Interesting I guess, but I disagree with the final sentence: "So what might one ultimately include? With all due respect to Seth Jones, this is not a year to draft a defenceman No. 1 overall".

I find these sorts of analysis interesting, but I don't really put much stock into it.

Things I'd be interested in seeing is goals per 82, and what do defensman look like in this equivalency? I see one dman on the list at 25th....where does Jones fit?

How big is the gap between 58 points as a rookie forward and 30 points for a rookie defensman? The dman will likely play 10% more of the game.

Thanks for posting, just another discussion point.

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06-27-2013, 12:01 PM
  #345
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Some time ago it was remarked that Mallet was tracking like Austin Watson pre-draft. But on the whole, I agree. The deviation in strategy from the 1st round to the 2nd and 3rd is quite absurd. I think I have always taken issue with it... The whole scouting staff needs to get back to basics here.

Could be worse, the move away from the older draftee could have been delayed for another 2-3 years, instead of correcting it immediately. I'm glad there will be an adjustment here.
Could you dumb this down for me? Curious what you mean by it.

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06-27-2013, 12:04 PM
  #346
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Interesting I guess, but I disagree with the final sentence: "So what might one ultimately include? With all due respect to Jared Seth Jones, this is not a year to draft a defenceman No. 1 overall".

I find these sorts of analysis interesting, but I don't really put much stock into it.

Things I'd be interested in seeing is goals per 82, and what do defensman look like in this equivalency? I see one dman on the list at 25th....where does Jones fit?

How big is the gap between 58 points as a rookie forward and 30 points for a rookie defensman? The dman will likely play 10% more of the game.

Thanks for posting, just another discussion point.
The issue (maybe) with choosing Jones #1 is (mabye) not so much a function of Jones, but more the fact there are several other very good D-men rated high in that draft too. Colorado is most likely hoping some other team gives them a nice young asset (or high pick) and then they draft Nurse, Morin, or Ristolainen. They get the young D-man, who could be just as good as Jones (maybe better) and another young player too. Is Jones really that much better than these other three guys?

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06-27-2013, 12:05 PM
  #347
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Interesting I guess, but I disagree with the final sentence: "So what might one ultimately include? With all due respect to Seth Jones, this is not a year to draft a defenceman No. 1 overall".

I find these sorts of analysis interesting, but I don't really put much stock into it.

Things I'd be interested in seeing is goals per 82, and what do defensman look like in this equivalency? I see one dman on the list at 25th....where does Jones fit?

How big is the gap between 58 points as a rookie forward and 30 points for a rookie defensman? The dman will likely play 10% more of the game.

Thanks for posting, just another discussion point.
Jones' NHLE is probably closer to 20-25 points right now.

What hurts Jones is that he's almost a full year older than Mackinnon. If you think they're roughly at the same level or that Mackinnon is even a little behind, that age gap is probably a bigger factor than anything else right now. I would go with Mackinnon unless I thought Jones was head and shoulders above him.

I also think that sentence is in reference to the fact that Mackinnon is tracking exceptionally. As noted in the article, he's only behind Crosby and Tavares right now. Tough to take anyone else over someone who is in such great company.

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06-27-2013, 12:08 PM
  #348
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Could you dumb this down for me? Curious what you mean by it.
Austin Watson was drafted 18th overall in 2010, same year that Mallet was originally eligible. His final year in the OHL he had 25 goals, 68 points in 61 games and 10 goals, 17 points in 19 playoff games. That made Watson the 2nd/3rd highest scorer on his team.

Mallet wasn't drafted in 2010, but in that same final year of junior, he put up 81 points in 68 games and 10 goals, 25 points in 21 playoff games. Mallet was the 2nd highest scorer on his team.

Perhaps Mallet will be a bust (although I don't think so) but he wasn't as crazy of a pick as people are implying.

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06-27-2013, 12:13 PM
  #349
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Austin Watson was drafted 18th overall in 2010, same year that Mallet was originally eligible. His final year in the OHL he had 25 goals, 68 points in 61 games and 10 goals, 17 points in 19 playoff games. That made Watson the 2nd/3rd highest scorer on his team.

Mallet wasn't drafted in 2010, but in that same final year of junior, he put up 81 points in 68 games and 10 goals, 25 points in 21 playoff games. Mallet was the 2nd highest scorer on his team.

Perhaps Mallet will be a bust (although I don't think so) but he wasn't as crazy of a pick as people are implying.
Thanks. Yeah fingers crossed.

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06-27-2013, 12:14 PM
  #350
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Jones' NHLE is probably closer to 20-25 points right now.

What hurts Jones is that he's almost a full year older than Mackinnon. If you think they're roughly at the same level or that Mackinnon is even a little behind, that age gap is probably a bigger factor than anything else right now. I would go with Mackinnon unless I thought Jones was head and shoulders above him.

I also think that sentence is in reference to the fact that Mackinnon is tracking exceptionally. As noted in the article, he's only behind Crosby and Tavares right now. Tough to take anyone else over someone who is in such great company.
Admittedly I'm not a big follower of this type of things, but I'd be interested to see Tavares' rankings....any chance you have that?

The irony is his points pace got worse as he moved along in the OHL and like Jones was a full year older than his peers at the time.

What is the history on this equivalency? HOw long have they tracked it? Is there evidence of its accuracy?

Are there clear cases where they were out to lunch?

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