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Stu. Is it time to drop the Magnificent?

View Poll Results: What say Stu?
Magnificent ******* 15 10.95%
Insignificant ******* 43 31.39%
******* 14 10.22%
Too soon to say 65 47.45%
Voters: 137. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-27-2013, 01:12 PM
  #126
misfit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
Swallow some pudding.

Peter Klima Round 5 pick # 88

Adam Graves Round 2 pick # 22

Sergei Fedorov HOF Round 4

Slava Koslov Round 3 pick # 45

Tomas Holmstrom Round10 pick # 257

Petr Sykora Round 3 Pick # 76

Henrik Zetterberg Round 7 Pick # 210

Jiri Hudler Round 2 Pick # 58

Val Filppula Round 2 Pick # 63

Pavel Datsyuk Round 6 pick # 171
Anything from this last decade? Filppula was 2002 and every other example you listed is from the 90's or earlier.

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06-27-2013, 01:14 PM
  #127
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i'm starting to lean towards OK *astard. Marincin was a terrific 2nd round snitch, as was Klefbom in the 1st, but guys like Pitlick, Hamilton, Roy, Bunz, Martindale, Zharkov, Moroz and Ewanyk will likely only turn into average NHL players if they make it at all. Pitlick was even mentioned lately as trade bait to Minny.

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06-27-2013, 01:24 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Perfect_Drug View Post
I get what your saying, but results are the ONLY thing that matters.
Well, then of the players who have cracked the NHL, let's only look at the ones that have proven to be useful players at that level. Lander hasn't, yet (as an example). I think you win this argument purely on the merit of what the prospects are doing outside the NHL.

Quote:
I'm not saying Lander is a GREAT player by any means, but if Detroit's scouting staff is superior to what Stu has done, then where is the tangible proof?
No argument here. I think people around here love arguing about prospects because you can talk so much fluff about them and then by the time the results are in, the conversations are long forgotten and there's no accountability. It's an Internet troll's dream.

I'm contemplating developing a web site where you go and register your HFboards username, and then lock in predictions about prospects. And then when you come on here to talk about how much you know about such and such a player, people can look you up and find either an empty page, a lot of bad predictions to a few goods ones, or better than that. No money in it, but if I could just sustain the site, boy would it be fun to watch the results after even a year or two. The core idea being you don't have to drudge through a users post history to demonstrate that he's full of it.

Credibility... until you've got it, you don't have it, so don't act like you do and shout people down.

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06-27-2013, 01:26 PM
  #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavy Dee View Post
Lost all respect when he drafted Musil over Boone Jenner. Stu The Bust
it's funny you say that because the Oilers are always told by their fans and especially opposing teams fans that they need to draft d-men...well here they did draft one ranked anywhere from the bottom of the 1st round to the mid 2nd, and some are squawking that they should have taken a center instead! poor Stu and his crew just can't win no matter what they do! but i hear yuh...i thought they should have taken the best goalie in the draft, John Gibson, instead of Musil.

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06-27-2013, 01:27 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
No he was not a top 10, top 5 pick. He was rated about around where he was picked. He has shown zero to indicate he is going to be a really good player or anything other than a bottom pairing guy.
At preliminary rankings he was thought as possible top 5-10.

http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2011...czech-canadian

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...t-david-musil/

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06-27-2013, 01:34 PM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
Swallow some pudding.

Peter Klima Round 5 pick # 88

Adam Graves Round 2 pick # 22

Sergei Fedorov HOF Round 4

Slava Koslov Round 3 pick # 45

Tomas Holmstrom Round10 pick # 257

Petr Sykora Round 3 Pick # 76

Henrik Zetterberg Round 7 Pick # 210

Jiri Hudler Round 2 Pick # 58

Val Filppula Round 2 Pick # 63

Pavel Datsyuk Round 6 pick # 171
This is a pretty ridiculous stretch. I have a feeling you were looking for any opportunity to unleash your witty punchline

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06-27-2013, 01:38 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
Credibility... until you've got it, you don't have it, so don't act like you do and shout people down.
I wouldn't say I'm shouting people down. I'm simply asking the people to base their opinions on Stu on actual results.

Scouting after the first round is complete conjecture I don't disagree with you there.


Just curious to know, if Stu is BAD, then who exactly do you consider to be good? 7 years is a pretty good sample size.

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06-27-2013, 01:56 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
Stu MacGregor, Head Scout - MacGregor, former GM of the Kamloops Blazers, took over Prendergast's role as the fellow in charge of the scouting department. He was previously based in Kamloops and scouted western Canada/USA for the Oilers since 2000/01, making him a Kevin Lowe hire.

MacGregor was the General Manager for the Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League from 1995 to 1998, before taking a scouting position with the Dallas Stars of the NHL. He joined the Edmonton Oilers in 2000, and in 2008 he replaced Kevin Prendergast as the Oiler's Director of Amateur Scouting.[1]
So from 2000 to 2007 Stu was a WHL scout. Let's take a look at the Oiler draft picks from his area:

2000 - Oilers had 10 picks, 1 from WHL: Shaun Norrie (184 OV) - Bust
2001 - 11 total selections, 3 from the WHL: Doug Lynch (43 OV) - AHL all-rookie, inj, Dan Baum (215 OV) - Bust, Shay Stephenson (278 OV) - 2 game cup of coffee, bust
2002 - 15 total selections, 2 from WHL: Jarret Stoll (36 OV) - NHL regular, Robin Kovar (123 OV) - Bust
2003 - 12 total selections, 2 from WHL: Kyle Brodziak (214 OV) - NHL regular, Troy Bodie (278 OV) - Cup of coffee, bust
2004 - 10 total selections, 4 from WHL: Devan Dubnyk (14 OV) - NHL starting goalie, Roman Tesliuk (44 OV) - Bust, Max Gordichuk (177 OV) - Bust, Tyler Spurgeon (242 OV) - inj, bust
2005 - 8 total selections, 0 from WHL
2006 - 5 total selections, 0 from WHL
2007 - 6 total selections, 1 from WHL: Alex Plante (15 OV) - Bust


So out of 67 total Oiler selections over that time, you could reasonably say that Stu had at least some say in 13 of them (just under 20%). Of those 13 picks, 3 became regulars in the NHL (23%) or 2 of the 11 that were taken after the first round (18%). In total, the Oilers had 9 players with 150 NHL games or more of the 57 picks that came after the 1st round (or 16%).

The Oilers' success rate out of the WHL for picks after the 1st round was 18%, or basically 1 of 5. Their success rate everywhere else was 15% (7 players out of 46 selections).

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06-27-2013, 02:56 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Perfect_Drug View Post
I wouldn't say I'm shouting people down. I'm simply asking the people to base their opinions on Stu on actual results.

Scouting after the first round is complete conjecture I don't disagree with you there.
No to be clear, I'm not talking about you. I'm actually talking about the people criticizing the Oiler's drafting in the past 5 years, or elevating Detroit's drafting.

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06-27-2013, 03:20 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Perfect_Drug View Post
I get what your saying, but results are the ONLY thing that matters.

I'm not saying Lander is a GREAT player by any means, but if Detroit's scouting staff is superior to what Stu has done, then where is the tangible proof?
They make the playoffs every year. We dont. There's your proof.

Detroit lets their prospects spend two or three years (or more) in the AHL before rushing them into the nhl. They actually develop their prospects.

We stick anyone and everyone in the nhl asap whether they are ready or not, often times due to the lack of nhl talent on the big club and the lack of depth on the farm team.

If you think Detroit's prospects are on par or worse than ours at the ahl level then you havent been paying attention too closely. Theyve got good young players at every position, defense, forward and in goal. We have a couple of decent dmen, one forward and two rookie goalies who have been less than impressive.

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06-27-2013, 03:26 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by Slats432 View Post
You do realize that every year, there are about 30+ players who are at some point in time, on some web site on the Internet hinted at as "potentially top 5" or similar in the year leading up to the draft, right?

I mean the link you yourself supplied has him ranked very late in the first round by every credible source right before the draft. I think it's a very defensible draft pick at 31 but you're focusing on the wrong argument here. But I'm not putting a lot of stock in Musil, to be honest, the size is great but the skill level is dangerously low with him.

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06-27-2013, 03:49 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
If you think Detroit's prospects are on par or worse than ours at the ahl level then you havent been paying attention too closely. Theyve got good young players at every position, defense, forward and in goal. We have a couple of decent dmen, one forward and two rookie goalies who have been less than impressive.
"At the AHL level" - You need to widen your gaze. All Detroit's best prospects played primarily for the AHL team and are just now getting a foot into the NHL (McCollum, Mrazek, Tartar, Nyquist, Smith, Sheahan, etc). The Oiler's best non-first-overall draft picks of the last 6 years are in the NHL (Eberle, MPS), Europe (Kelfbom), or CHL (Reider, Gernat, Musil etc). Or reverse it, look who the Oilers have had developing in OKC: Lander, Hartikainen, Pitlick, Marincin.

Grand Rapids is a better place to develop prospects right now, I won't argue that... I think some changes are needed in OKC. But the AHL isn't a valid method of pitting prospect pools against each other by seeing who won the Calder cup last year. OKC makes it as far as it does each year in the playoffs on the backs of it's veterans, not it's young prospects. The hockey world is so much bigger than that these days.

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06-27-2013, 05:33 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Anything from this last decade? Filppula was 2002 and every other example you listed is from the 90's or earlier.
Jimmy Howard Round 2 # 64

Johan Franzen Round 3, # 97

Darren Helm Round 5, # 132

Shawn Matthias Round 2, # 47

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06-27-2013, 05:57 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
Swallow some pudding.
Peter Klima Round 5 pick # 88
Adam Graves Round 2 pick # 22
Sergei Fedorov HOF Round 4
Slava Koslov Round 3 pick # 45
Tomas Holmstrom Round10 pick # 257
Petr Sykora Round 3 Pick # 76
Henrik Zetterberg Round 7 Pick # 210
Jiri Hudler Round 2 Pick # 58
Val Filppula Round 2 Pick # 63
Pavel Datsyuk Round 6 pick # 171
Bwahaha... Hilarious. You haven't named a player drafted in the last decade. Maybe you should also criticize Stu because he didn't find gems from the Montreal Canadiens in the 1960s too. They have equal relevance.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
Jimmy Howard Round 2 # 64
Johan Franzen Round 3, # 97
Darren Helm Round 5, # 132
Shawn Matthias Round 2, # 47
Man you just don't get it. Stu macgregor become head of scouting for the Oilers on Sept 10 2007. The 2008 was his first draft.

In order to say that Stu "needs to be put to be put out to pasture". You stated "Detroit's scouting seems to grab these needles in a haystack for the past how many years ..... but we miss the boat."

So show me the needles that Stu has missed during the time period in which Macgregor was in charge.

Or do you just like spouting your opinion without any factual basis?

Jimmy Howard was drafted in 2003.
Franzen was drafted in 2004.
Helm was drafted in 2005.
Matthias was drafted in 2006.

All of them drafted before Macgregor was named head of amateur drafting. So tell me how are they examples that Stu failed to draft?

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06-27-2013, 06:10 PM
  #140
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He has been with the organization since 2000 and so your going to tell me that he had zero input just because he wasn't the top dog. Whatever. Our scouts have been terrible for a long time. When your organization can only boast since 2000 Stoll, Brodziak, Green as your gems past round 1 there is a bit of a problem.

Explain why so many previous Oilers players shine when they go to other organizations. Detroit being one of them. They have been in the playoffs for how many years in a row again ? That isn't pure luck. Other then our cup run with Roli we haven't fart sniffed the playoffs. The entire org needs to be revamped rather then recycle the same product. Scouting is part of the good old boys club. Time to wake up.

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06-27-2013, 06:45 PM
  #141
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We have a sizable group of prospects outside the first round that are trending really well right now. What do you people expect, a 100 percent drafting rate?

Jujhar Khaira
Tobias Rieder
Martin Gernat
Martin Marincin
Kristians Pelss (RIP though)
Brandon Davidson
Toni Rajala


These are all players that have arrows pointing up, or had them in the sad case of Pelss.

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06-27-2013, 06:47 PM
  #142
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
They make the playoffs every year. We dont. There's your proof.

Detroit lets their prospects spend two or three years (or more) in the AHL before rushing them into the nhl. They actually develop their prospects.

We stick anyone and everyone in the nhl asap whether they are ready or not, often times due to the lack of nhl talent on the big club and the lack of depth on the farm team.

If you think Detroit's prospects are on par or worse than ours at the ahl level then you havent been paying attention too closely. Theyve got good young players at every position, defense, forward and in goal. We have a couple of decent dmen, one forward and two rookie goalies who have been less than impressive.
Hehe, I'm not talking about development systems. Based on Scouting alone there's been little evidence to suggest that Detroit scouting is better than Stu's.

Detroit has made the playoffs based on the strength of their veterans and coaching. Not their late round picks after 2007.

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06-27-2013, 06:54 PM
  #143
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Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
He has been with the organization since 2000 and so your going to tell me that he had zero input just because he wasn't the top dog. Whatever. Our scouts have been terrible for a long time. When your organization can only boast since 2000 Stoll, Brodziak, Green as your gems past round 1 there is a bit of a problem.

Explain why so many previous Oilers players shine when they go to other organizations. Detroit being one of them. They have been in the playoffs for how many years in a row again ? That isn't pure luck. Other then our cup run with Roli we haven't fart sniffed the playoffs. The entire org needs to be revamped rather then recycle the same product. Scouting is part of the good old boys club. Time to wake up.

Not completely modern (the stats taken from the 90s), but I imagine that the numbers are similar (I retrieved it here):
  • 1st rounders 63% become career NHLers
  • 2nd rounders 25% become career NHLers
  • 3rd round and beyond 12% become career NHLers
I personally don't think the problem is at the draft table. I've said it before. I'm more of the opinion that the issue is a problem with player development at the AHL level. Young players who were quite successful in junior are not necessarily shown the confidence that they need to improve and develop at the AHL level. Instead, veteran AHL players are playing in key situations at the expense of developing some of our young talent. How should success be measured at the AHL level? Should it be measured in playoff victories or player development? I think it is a combination of factors, and I think there needs to be more of a balance there.

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06-27-2013, 06:59 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
Swallow some pudding.

Peter Klima Round 5 pick # 88

Adam Graves Round 2 pick # 22

Sergei Fedorov HOF Round 4

Slava Koslov Round 3 pick # 45

Tomas Holmstrom Round10 pick # 257

Petr Sykora Round 3 Pick # 76

Henrik Zetterberg Round 7 Pick # 210

Jiri Hudler Round 2 Pick # 58

Val Filppula Round 2 Pick # 63

Pavel Datsyuk Round 6 pick # 171

That's not the Petr Sykora you think it is.

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06-27-2013, 07:30 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
"At the AHL level" - You need to widen your gaze. All Detroit's best prospects played primarily for the AHL team and are just now getting a foot into the NHL (McCollum, Mrazek, Tartar, Nyquist, Smith, Sheahan, etc). The Oiler's best non-first-overall draft picks of the last 6 years are in the NHL (Eberle, MPS), Europe (Kelfbom), or CHL (Reider, Gernat, Musil etc). Or reverse it, look who the Oilers have had developing in OKC: Lander, Hartikainen, Pitlick, Marincin.

Grand Rapids is a better place to develop prospects right now, I won't argue that... I think some changes are needed in OKC. But the AHL isn't a valid method of pitting prospect pools against each other by seeing who won the Calder cup last year. OKC makes it as far as it does each year in the playoffs on the backs of it's veterans, not it's young prospects. The hockey world is so much bigger than that these days.
You can look wherever you want. Right now we have Klefbom and Marincin, possibly Lander and a whole bunch of maybe's and by the looks of things a bunch of never gonna be's.

Rieder isnt our property anymore and Gernat and Musil are far from nhl ready. Gernat in particular. He took a step back this year, albeit due to injury but he was a fraction of the player he was the year before.

What we are focusing on in this discussion is what do we have AFTER the first round? Not much from where I sit. The Wings however have Nyquist (4th), Tatar (2nd), Mrazek (5th), Pulkkinen (4th), Jarnkrok (2nd), Sproul (2nd), Ouellete (2nd), Jurko (2nd), Frk (2nd), Athanasiou (4th), Paterson (3rd).

They are loaded with really good players just waiting to develop into nhl'ers. Theyve got a few good dmen, a bunch of talented forwards and two pretty good goalies. The only area we come close is the dmen. After that we fall flat on our faces in any comparison with Wing's non-first round prospects.

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06-27-2013, 07:33 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Senor Catface View Post
We have a sizable group of prospects outside the first round that are trending really well right now. What do you people expect, a 100 percent drafting rate?

Jujhar Khaira
Tobias Rieder
Martin Gernat
Martin Marincin
Kristians Pelss (RIP though)
Brandon Davidson
Toni Rajala


These are all players that have arrows pointing up, or had them in the sad case of Pelss.
Rieder isnt ours and the arrows are definitely NOT pointing up for Gernat.

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06-27-2013, 07:46 PM
  #147
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
So from 2000 to 2007 Stu was a WHL scout. Let's take a look at the Oiler draft picks from his area:

2000 - Oilers had 10 picks, 1 from WHL: Shaun Norrie (184 OV) - Bust
2001 - 11 total selections, 3 from the WHL: Doug Lynch (43 OV) - AHL all-rookie, inj, Dan Baum (215 OV) - Bust, Shay Stephenson (278 OV) - 2 game cup of coffee, bust
2002 - 15 total selections, 2 from WHL: Jarret Stoll (36 OV) - NHL regular, Robin Kovar (123 OV) - Bust
2003 - 12 total selections, 2 from WHL: Kyle Brodziak (214 OV) - NHL regular, Troy Bodie (278 OV) - Cup of coffee, bust
2004 - 10 total selections, 4 from WHL: Devan Dubnyk (14 OV) - NHL starting goalie, Roman Tesliuk (44 OV) - Bust, Max Gordichuk (177 OV) - Bust, Tyler Spurgeon (242 OV) - inj, bust
2005 - 8 total selections, 0 from WHL
2006 - 5 total selections, 0 from WHL
2007 - 6 total selections, 1 from WHL: Alex Plante (15 OV) - Bust


So out of 67 total Oiler selections over that time, you could reasonably say that Stu had at least some say in 13 of them (just under 20%). Of those 13 picks, 3 became regulars in the NHL (23%) or 2 of the 11 that were taken after the first round (18%). In total, the Oilers had 9 players with 150 NHL games or more of the 57 picks that came after the 1st round (or 16%).

The Oilers' success rate out of the WHL for picks after the 1st round was 18%, or basically 1 of 5. Their success rate everywhere else was 15% (7 players out of 46 selections).
I'm going to relieve Stu from one of those busts- Tyler Spurgeon was actually Kevin Lowe's selection, he would occasionally be given a pick in the later rounds and that is one of his. I guess we should also take Brodziak away as that is one that Lorne Davis really wanted. I would not categorize Lynch as a bust either, he was an instrumental piece in getting us Pronger and I'm not sure how you can't be happy about that; to me scouts should ideally be selecting us NHL players but really if you are selecting players that are better than the players taken behind them and if they show good growth after you've selected them you've done your job IMO, it is up to our development team to nurture them after that and upto our GM and everyone who is keeping tabs on our prospects to make the call if they are going to fall just short of that next level and trade them when their value is at it's zenith. I'm honestly not sure how much you can tell about the local scout based on who we selected from his area as there is a lot of cross over, and you don't really know what is being said in the room, nor do we get the benefits of the draft reports and evaluations our scouts write up for the players. I would think if an area scout was really adamant that a player shouldn't be selected we would usually give him the benefit of the doubt but it's pretty hard to say.

Did anyone watch Max Gordichuk play? While being pretty late in the draft and being a miss usually makes a bad selection pretty forgivable, that has to be the worst player I have ever seen the Oilers draft, he was just big, he had no redeeming quality that would make me ever think he could play in the NHL, even with guys like Abney and Moroz who were just selected too early, they atleast have some very obvious qualities where you can see what the scouts liked in them. I really hope Stu had no say in Gordichuk, cause that kid was horribad. For right now I think Stu is average to slightly above average based on the general strength of our selections.

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06-27-2013, 07:48 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by Perfect_Drug View Post
Stu took over in 2007.


rajala is looking like a nice pick, klefbom, musil... i like alot of our picks. In your deeper rounds i like to believe they realized alot of those players will never make the bigs. They were trying to find a gem in the rough. someone that had the pieces but hadnt put them together yet, someone who they felt had the chance to just be a late bloomer.

considering we are only 6 drafts in... and most prospects take around 4 years to develop in a proper organization...

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06-27-2013, 08:04 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Detroit lets their prospects spend two or three years (or more) in the AHL before rushing them into the nhl. They actually develop their prospects.
This thread is kind of funny.

Detroit has a system loaded with good prospects, drafted in the later rounds, and currently playing impressively in the AHL.

"That's AHL. They haven't done anything in the NHL."

Okay, here's a list of late-round Detroit picks that made an impact in NHL, by draft year.

"Those are all old!"


Hmm... maybe we need a new role model. Which is the franchise again that immediately rolls 4th round picks into Top 6 scorers? Let's be like that one.

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06-27-2013, 08:34 PM
  #150
stratedge
Rebuild, year 4...
 
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,205
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I love how the people criticizing Stu are doing so by basing their argument largely on factors that take place AFTER the player is drafted.

"Oh that guy was traded so he doesn't count." "That guy got injured so he took a step backwards so that's bad drafting."


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