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Canucks draft F Bo Horvat 9th Overall (1st Round)

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Old
07-02-2013, 12:07 PM
  #376
MikeK
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Originally Posted by Krnuckfan View Post
I'm really not sold on his offensive production and would be happy if he could put up 50 points in the NHL. I think some of you hoping he becomes a first liner are kidding yourselves. Players who play in the 1st line in the NHL completely dominate juniors in most cases. Horvat didn't even get a ppg.

http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/18...ft-comparables

Don't know how much stock i put into that analysis, but his player comparisons aren't anything to be excited about.

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07-02-2013, 12:23 PM
  #377
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Originally Posted by just22 View Post
Yeah, no idea what he meant there.

Horvat won it because of clutch scoring and his two way play. Not because of luck and ice time.
I meant literally what I said. Any player can go on a hot streak, full stop

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07-02-2013, 12:24 PM
  #378
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Originally Posted by SDK View Post
16 goals in 21 playoff games isn't dominant? That's better production than MacKinnon and Drouin had.
It's 21 games. Not 70. ANYTHING can happen in small samples

That's why you watch players or defer to insightful people that do. I wouldn't take your word for it, but generally I've learned not to bet against tiranis or feebster without having a very good idea first

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07-02-2013, 12:27 PM
  #379
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I meant literally what I said. Any player can go on a hot streak, full stop
I agree with this. Horvat was considered a mid-late 1st for the majority of the year, but had a hot streak at the end of the year. I really dislike drafting late risers like this very high, as I think it has a lot of "what have you done for me lately"

If Horvat had started the season like he ended it and vice versa, I doubt he gets picked in the top half of the 1st round.

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07-02-2013, 12:33 PM
  #380
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
It's 21 games. Not 70. ANYTHING can happen in small samples
Well, anything can happen in a 70 game sample too. It's just more likely that that a bad player has a good season than a good player over a smaller sample than in a bigger one. But even in 21 games, it's more likely that a good player has a good run than a bad player.

The big question is whether Horvat's splits between his first 27 games and his last 61 were the result of fluctuations around his true talent level or the reflection of an improvement in his underlying ability. I think its more likely the former, which is why I'm a little skeptical of this pick, but I'm hoping its the latter.

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07-02-2013, 12:35 PM
  #381
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I agree with this. Horvat was considered a mid-late 1st for the majority of the year, but had a hot streak at the end of the year. I really dislike drafting late risers like this very high, as I think it has a lot of "what have you done for me lately"

If Horvat had started the season like he ended it and vice versa, I doubt he gets picked in the top half of the 1st round.

It goes in the opposite direction for guys like Shinkaruk too, where he had a drop in production, which may have contributed to his fall.

Draft lists are pretty volatile throughout the year. The final rankings are great, as they tell us the call scouts were willing to make to back up their paychecks. However, where a pick is selected has many factors that aren't tied to production alone. For instance, Horvat is being evaluated based on his projection on the whole, not due to a short sample, or even just strictly the larger sample that does not align with it. It's more his skillset, body type, and mental make up. The opposite being true for Shinkaruk, who despite great production overall, had bigger questions about his body type and mental game (defensive awareness and attitude). That's why he dropped.

Put another way, even though Shinkaruk was higher on draft boards for longer, I gave preference to guys like Horvat, Lazar, Erne and even Dickinson because of their projection. It's not as simple as looking at production alone.

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07-02-2013, 12:36 PM
  #382
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Boyd Gordon comparisons are ludicrous.

Gordon was taken 17th overall in a horrific draft... seriously Ben Eager was a first round pick...

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07-02-2013, 12:38 PM
  #383
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
It's 21 games. Not 70. ANYTHING can happen in small samples

That's why you watch players or defer to insightful people that do. I wouldn't take your word for it, but generally I've learned not to bet against tiranis or feebster without having a very good idea first
Horvat's upside offensively may not be as high as some players that were drafted after him in the 1st round but he's the type of player you win with. Definately a safe pick but if you look at the Bruins they didn't really have any super high point producing forwards this past season but they had a deep team who stepped up when it counted.

Chicago and Boston's best/most valuable forwards aren't players who lead their respective teams in points. They are players who put up 0.75-1 points per game and play in all situations. Horvat looks to be of that mold.

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07-02-2013, 12:40 PM
  #384
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I agree with this. Horvat was considered a mid-late 1st for the majority of the year, but had a hot streak at the end of the year. I really dislike drafting late risers like this very high, as I think it has a lot of "what have you done for me lately"

If Horvat had started the season like he ended it and vice versa, I doubt he gets picked in the top half of the 1st round.
There's a difference between starting hot and ending hot.

Starting hot usually means the player is more prepared entering the season, but when the rest of the league gets their legs, that player reverts to his relative talent.

Ending hot, however, has the chance of meaning that the player's game just clicked... like half a season's worth of work turning into something great.

Anyways, drafting is not an exact science... but I'd rather have a guy who was underwhelming in the regular season and hot in the playoffs than a guy who was hot in the regular season and underwhelming in the playoffs.

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07-02-2013, 12:42 PM
  #385
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
The best comparison I can come up with is a David Backes without the mean streak. Bergeron and O'Reilly don't really play the same type of game in the offensive zone.
Except the mean streak is what makes Backes so special

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07-02-2013, 12:44 PM
  #386
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
It's 21 games. Not 70. ANYTHING can happen in small samples
Those were 21 big games though. His last second heroics in the playoffs give me hope that he will turn into a clutch player. I would certainly be happy with a solid, two way player that really turns it on for the big games.

Any prospect is a gamble of course. I really hope that he turns out to be the guy we want him to be (Basically the leadership, clutch play and heart of Trevor Linden, with the scoring touch of Daniel Sedin, the speed of Pavel Bure and the injury resistance of Henrik Sedin).

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07-02-2013, 12:44 PM
  #387
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I think the biggest thing separating them offensively (in terms of translating their games to the NHL and thus fulfilling their potential) is that Horvat plays at a high pace while Gaunce tries to slow the game down and has had to slowly learn how to play at a higher pace.
This is the first thing I noticed about Horvat. He's fast, not just fast on his skates but fast decision making and quick on the puck. This is usually a quality that translates well to the NHL, since it's such a fast paced game. This is what makes me weary of Gaunce, I don't feel he can be a true offensive contributor at the NHL level with how he plays the game. He seems tailor made to be more of a 3rd line guy, with possibly some 2nd line upside.

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07-02-2013, 12:49 PM
  #388
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I agree with this. Horvat was considered a mid-late 1st for the majority of the year, but had a hot streak at the end of the year. I really dislike drafting late risers like this very high, as I think it has a lot of "what have you done for me lately"

If Horvat had started the season like he ended it and vice versa, I doubt he gets picked in the top half of the 1st round.

You are right, in a sense, but as others have said starting hot is much different than ending hot. The question is, did he end hot or did he demonstrate growth as a player throughout the season? Our scouts are obviously banking on the latter. I think we'll have a better idea half way through his next season, but as of right now he's earned the benefit of the doubt. 16 goals in 21 playoff games along with playoff MVP and an extremely good two-way game is something to get excited about, I do hope he follows it up.

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Old
07-02-2013, 12:54 PM
  #389
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
Well, anything can happen in a 70 game sample too. It's just more likely that that a bad player has a good season than a good player over a smaller sample than in a bigger one. But even in 21 games, it's more likely that a good player has a good run than a bad player.

The big question is whether Horvat's splits between his first 27 games and his last 61 were the result of fluctuations around his true talent level or the reflection of an improvement in his underlying ability. I think its more likely the former, which is why I'm a little skeptical of this pick, but I'm hoping its the latter.
Is it more likely for any given run that it was done by a good player? There are more bad than good. But yeah, good explanation of what I can't elucidate on a phone.

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07-02-2013, 12:57 PM
  #390
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Originally Posted by DCantheDman View Post
Those were 21 big games though. His last second heroics in the playoffs give me hope that he will turn into a clutch player. I would certainly be happy with a solid, two way player that really turns it on for the big games.
A performance can be clutch but that doesn't mean it has any predicative value

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07-02-2013, 12:59 PM
  #391
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There's really no point in discussing this now. I know people will anyway but Horvat was drafted to play for us in 2015, not now. Talk to me in 2 years.

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07-02-2013, 01:00 PM
  #392
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Originally Posted by Luck 6 View Post
This is the first thing I noticed about Horvat. He's fast, not just fast on his skates but fast decision making and quick on the puck. This is usually a quality that translates well to the NHL, since it's such a fast paced game. This is what makes me weary of Gaunce, I don't feel he can be a true offensive contributor at the NHL level with how he plays the game. He seems tailor made to be more of a 3rd line guy, with possibly some 2nd line upside.
Yeah, from what I've seen, Gaunce projects to be a third liner with second line upside, while Horvat projects to be a second liner with first line upside.

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07-02-2013, 01:00 PM
  #393
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
A performance can be clutch but that doesn't mean it has any predicative value
I would understand your point if Bo had just a great Memorial Cup or something, because then sample size would be a serious issue. I think the length of the playoffs really takes away the amount of luck involved

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07-02-2013, 01:04 PM
  #394
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Originally Posted by Luck 6 View Post
This is the first thing I noticed about Horvat. He's fast, not just fast on his skates but fast decision making and quick on the puck. This is usually a quality that translates well to the NHL, since it's such a fast paced game. This is what makes me weary of Gaunce, I don't feel he can be a true offensive contributor at the NHL level with how he plays the game. He seems tailor made to be more of a 3rd line guy, with possibly some 2nd line upside.
Gaunce would serve the Canucks better by being an excellent 3rd line centre than a competent 2nd line centre.

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07-02-2013, 01:05 PM
  #395
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
That's exactly the point. You think if he would come over all this way to not take the tests and give lousy interviews, he'd have a reason to do so.

If he weren't at all commited why would he bother coming to the draft combine at all?

Wouldn't it make sense(at least as much sense as Shinkaruk purposely interviewing badly, imo) that he tried to make himself fall as far as possible?
Don't follow your reasoning at all. I don't believe it makes any sense for Nichushkin to make himself fall or give a lousy interview, especially when he said his focus was to give a strong one.

As I said before, I don't think any rational person would have done this. It was just a wild idea proposed by a poster that I linked as a wild explanation to Shinkaruk's fall. I don't think it's true at all, but I have no other explanations about the interview reports either.

To the bolded: Why would Radulov come over to play in the CHL if he weren't committed? He said all the right things and look what happened. Trading away Schneider for a flight risk was not the right move and I don't think anything will change my mind about that.

--------

Do people looking at Horvat's stats understand he was doing this with 2nd line minutes? Or that he started the season on the 3rd line? Or that he was given the toughest defensive matchups intentionally throughout the season?

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07-02-2013, 01:09 PM
  #396
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Gaunce would serve the Canucks better by being an excellent 3rd line centre than a competent 2nd line centre.
How is the player any different? The difference between an excellent #3 and a competent #2 is who the team has to fill the #1 and #2 centre imo

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07-02-2013, 01:09 PM
  #397
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Do people looking at Horvat's stats understand he was doing this with 2nd line minutes? Or that he started the season on the 3rd line?
Obviously not. It's very "in vogue" around here to glance at stat lines and make sweeping statements about a players game and upside as opposed to looking for any sort of context.

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07-02-2013, 01:15 PM
  #398
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I think most people are being reasonable and maybe apprehensive, not critical. Are there people I e ignored that are flying off the handle?

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07-02-2013, 01:19 PM
  #399
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Do people looking at Horvat's stats understand he was doing this with 2nd line minutes? Or that he started the season on the 3rd line? Or that he was given the toughest defensive matchups intentionally throughout the season?
Of course. If he wasn't doing that, his numbers would be more reflective of a late(r) round pick than a potential first rounder.

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07-02-2013, 01:26 PM
  #400
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I know anything could happen but this guy could really be our next superstar. Excited to watch him play.

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