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Former Hab Thread - The Subban/Eller Edition II *Mod warning post #1*

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Old
09-21-2016, 03:05 PM
  #1
Lafleurs Guy
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Former Hab Thread - The Subban/Eller Edition II *Mod warning post #1*

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A reminder that all Subban vs Weber talk should be kept to this thread.

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09-21-2016, 04:04 PM
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Subban's power play numbers were clearly inhibited by Desharnais.

Desharnais scored a pathetic 2.06 p/60 at 5on4 last year. His GF/60 was 5.78, very weak, in spite of a PDO of 1118 which means his stats are inflated.

Galchenyuk had a P/60 of 4.44, and Plekanec of 3.61. Both had PDOs below 1000.

Subban was 71st in the NHL last year for p/60 at 5on4 among defensemen. However he was 18th at 5on4 (Weber was 51st).

Subban's s production will rise next year as he will no longer be dealt the hand of a dd-centric power play.

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09-22-2016, 06:52 AM
  #3
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All the proof you need that it was a bad trade is that Bergevin is actively and publicly trying to acquire a puck moving defenceman to play with Weber because they know that's an area of deficiency (and according to McKenzie they see Beaulieu as a third pairing guy behind Emelin) meaning they now realize they created a new hole that previously did not exist.

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09-22-2016, 08:35 AM
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All the proof you need that it was a bad trade is that Bergevin is actively and publicly trying to acquire a puck moving defenceman to play with Weber because they know that's an area of deficiency (and according to McKenzie they see Beaulieu as a third pairing guy behind Emelin) meaning they now realize they created a new hole that previously did not exist.
If that is the case should we not evaluate the two trades together?

As for Beaulieu being third pairing, they used to see Galchenyuk as a second line winger.

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09-22-2016, 08:39 AM
  #5
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All the proof you need that it was a bad trade is that Bergevin is actively and publicly trying to acquire a puck moving defenceman to play with Weber because they know that's an area of deficiency (and according to McKenzie they see Beaulieu as a third pairing guy behind Emelin) meaning they now realize they created a new hole that previously did not exist.
Really? Actively & publicly?

I had that interview on the radio in the car as BG so I may have missed something but I thought I heard him say they're looking to him to probably fill in as a top 4 d-man.

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09-22-2016, 08:50 AM
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For once I see things the same way as management. Beaulieu will never be a top pairing guy. He lacks every quality to succeed at that level except skating. Maybe he'll randomly "get it" as he grows older but I wouldn't ever bet the farm on him. If he could be packaged for an upgrade I would do it and move Markov to third pairing + special teams.

Fowler/whoever-Weber
Emelin-Petry
Markov-Pateryn

would be a D corp I'm a lot more comfortable with. Markov/Emelin can switch places during cold streaks or whatever. Markov can rest some back to backs, toss in Barberio.

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09-22-2016, 09:03 AM
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Corsica. Use Relative numbers. I can't remember what minimum I used for the GF number. I tried to make it high to weed out the non first pairing guys.
Thanks, this probably belongs more in the do you used advanced stats thread but it is a continuation of our discussion from yesterday on Subbans PP contribution relative to his teammates.

Corsica has Subban 2nd in the league in 5-4 GF60 relative at 5.31 with Klingberg marginally better. Puckalytics has him 14th overall at 0.60. Their number 1 is mark Giordano at 3.20.

There seems to be quite the disparity between these two stats that obviously must be calculated differently. If we look at raw GF60 numbers they should be similar Corsica has subban at 6.12 while the other has him at 6.51. The difference being caused by Corsica having subban on the ice for 32 GF 5-4 while PA has him on for 33.

I have a problem understanding how that 5.31 can be right. his raw score is 6.12 and that is supposed to 5.31 better than his PP teammates when they are on without him. 6.12-5.31 is 0.81 GF60. yet somehow the PP managed to score 7 PPG (5-4) in the 126 mins that Subban was not on the ice.

That stats don't make sense and that is a big problem. I like the analytics and the new stats but I have problems trusting something that does not pass the smell test. Also we have to make sure that the stat being used is actually relevant as we discussed yesterday when pointing that GF% or any of its derivitaves is not relevant to non even-strength time.

I like stats but I do not blindly accept them as gospel, they are man made after all. There as an brutal book that I read a few years ago called the Flaw of Averages that discussed many of the bad decisions made in the business world based on misinterpreting statistics. Painful to read but it had one great analogy,

Imagine a drunk wandering home on a busy 6 lane highway walking weaving from side to side. His average position is safe on the median but the average drunk wandering on a busy freeway is dead.

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09-22-2016, 09:28 AM
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All the proof you need that it was a bad trade is that Bergevin is actively and publicly trying to acquire a puck moving defenceman to play with Weber because they know that's an area of deficiency (and according to McKenzie they see Beaulieu as a third pairing guy behind Emelin) meaning they now realize they created a new hole that previously did not exist.
If we had Subban we'd still be needing a top pairing LHD...

We have a future potential top pairing LHD in Sergachev, who will develop a lot better with a guy like Weber than he would've with Subban.

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09-22-2016, 09:47 AM
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If we had Subban we'd still be needing a top pairing LHD...

We have a future potential top pairing LHD in Sergachev, who will develop a lot better with a guy like Weber than he would've with Subban.
Wouldn't need one this season though. Markov complimented Subban well.

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09-22-2016, 10:25 AM
  #10
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If we had Subban we'd still be needing a top pairing LHD...

We have a future potential top pairing LHD in Sergachev, who will develop a lot better with a guy like Weber than he would've with Subban.
No, we wouldn't have needed one. Markov was still effective being paired with PK, as he wasn't the go-to guy to move the puck around. He could also stay back a bit more and wasn't relied as much to carry the offensive burden from the back end.

Also, although it was a short sample, Beaulieu did quite well when paired with PK.

Right now though, we definitely need an improvement over Markov. I just don't see Markov working there and Beaulieu isn't ready to be the go to PMD of a top pair duo.

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09-22-2016, 10:38 AM
  #11
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Thanks, this probably belongs more in the do you used advanced stats thread but it is a continuation of our discussion from yesterday on Subbans PP contribution relative to his teammates.

Corsica has Subban 2nd in the league in 5-4 GF60 relative at 5.31 with Klingberg marginally better. Puckalytics has him 14th overall at 0.60. Their number 1 is mark Giordano at 3.20.

There seems to be quite the disparity between these two stats that obviously must be calculated differently. If we look at raw GF60 numbers they should be similar Corsica has subban at 6.12 while the other has him at 6.51. The difference being caused by Corsica having subban on the ice for 32 GF 5-4 while PA has him on for 33.

I have a problem understanding how that 5.31 can be right. his raw score is 6.12 and that is supposed to 5.31 better than his PP teammates when they are on without him. 6.12-5.31 is 0.81 GF60. yet somehow the PP managed to score 7 PPG (5-4) in the 126 mins that Subban was not on the ice.

That stats don't make sense and that is a big problem. I like the analytics and the new stats but I have problems trusting something that does not pass the smell test. Also we have to make sure that the stat being used is actually relevant as we discussed yesterday when pointing that GF% or any of its derivitaves is not relevant to non even-strength time.

I like stats but I do not blindly accept them as gospel, they are man made after all. There as an brutal book that I read a few years ago called the Flaw of Averages that discussed many of the bad decisions made in the business world based on misinterpreting statistics. Painful to read but it had one great analogy,

Imagine a drunk wandering home on a busy 6 lane highway walking weaving from side to side. His average position is safe on the median but the average drunk wandering on a busy freeway is dead.
It was used in rebuttal to the silly argument that PK was responsible for our pathetic PP. as for Klingberg, he disappears with the minimums I used.

As for this number being weird, it's actual goals we're looking at not possession. And you have to remember that our PP was atrocious. I'm not using this number to say PK is the best PP guy in the league but I am saying that it clearly rebuffs the nonsense that he was the problem on the PP. no other player in the league improved his team's PP more than PK did. As for the discrepancies in the numbers, are you looking at 5 on 4 relative? Regardless, let's say PK was 3rd in the league instead of first, for the purposes of this discussion it doesn't really matter. Either way the guy is making that PP much better and has a huge positive impact relative to his team.

If you're going to fix something, fix what's broken, not what works.

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If we had Subban we'd still be needing a top pairing LHD...

We have a future potential top pairing LHD in Sergachev, who will develop a lot better with a guy like Weber than he would've with Subban.
I don't see why that would be the case. You keep making blanket statements (some of which are easily refuted) with nothing to back it up.


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09-22-2016, 10:45 AM
  #12
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Also, although it was a short sample, Beaulieu did quite well when paired with PK.
Yeah, that's what bugs me quite a bit. They should have given Beaulieu/Subban - Markov/Petry a real shot. Petry got hurt so last year they couldn't, but this year would have been the time to do it. Instead, they have to run Weber with either Markov, Beaulieu, or Emelin, and according to McKenzie seem to be rather running Markov with Weber or trading for a guy to play with Weber.

In other words, Bergevin is trying to create a completely brand new first pairing on his defence. It's a bit shocking.

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09-22-2016, 10:56 AM
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Wouldn't need one this season though. Markov complimented Subban well.
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No, we wouldn't have needed one. Markov was still effective being paired with PK, as he wasn't the go-to guy to move the puck around. He could also stay back a bit more and wasn't relied as much to carry the offensive burden from the back end.

Also, although it was a short sample, Beaulieu did quite well when paired with PK.

Right now though, we definitely need an improvement over Markov. I just don't see Markov working there and Beaulieu isn't ready to be the go to PMD of a top pair duo.
Everyone complained Markov has been overused for the last three years, now we don't need one?

Markov is still an excellent D, but he should be playing second pairing minutes. Even with Subban, we need someone to eat minutes on the left side with him.

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09-22-2016, 10:57 AM
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Everyone complained Markov has been overused for the last three years, now we don't need one?

Markov is still an excellent D, but he should be playing second pairing minutes. Even with Subban, we need someone to eat minutes on the left side with him.
Correct. I don't wanna see Markov on the first pairing again, especially in the playoffs.

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09-22-2016, 11:04 AM
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I don't see why that would be the case. You keep making blanket statements (some of which are easily refuted) with nothing to back it up.
Our options to play top pairing with Subban are Markov, Emelin and Beaulieu.

Markov has played too many minutes the past few years and gets worn out, he's still a very good D but he shouldn't be playing 24-25 minutes a game.

Emelin is at best a 2nd pairing D.

Beaulieu hasn't shown he can be a top 4 D, he got outplayed by even Barberio last year. He's a good skater, but his decision making and shot are below average.

Over the years Subban has been effective with veterans (Markov/Gill/Hamrlik/Gorges), young and inexperienced guys struggle with him since he's too unpredictable. A guy like Sergachev would look better with a veteran like Weber who he'd have to back him up and it'd allow him to be able to use his offense/skating better. If you're a young player trying to adjust to the NHL, I think it is easier to play with a guy you'll usually know what he's going to do rather than a guy who randomly will put out a spino-rama and rush at random times.

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09-22-2016, 11:09 AM
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I don't see why that would be the case. You keep making blanket statements (some of which are easily refuted) with nothing to back it up.
I don't think there's anything at all wrong with that statement. It is as close to absolute truth as you can possibly get that Weber is better at helping young players develop and become better versions of themselves than Subban is. Subban is a distraction and is more likely to teach young players how to wear fur coats and hang out with celebrities than to become mature and respectable hockey players. That's if they are on his good side. If they are on his bad side he'll just fight with them at practice.

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09-22-2016, 11:22 AM
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Our options to play top pairing with Subban are Markov, Emelin and Beaulieu.

Markov has played too many minutes the past few years and gets worn out, he's still a very good D but he shouldn't be playing 24-25 minutes a game.

Emelin is at best a 2nd pairing D.

Beaulieu hasn't shown he can be a top 4 D, he got outplayed by even Barberio last year. He's a good skater, but his decision making and shot are below average.

Over the years Subban has been effective with veterans (Markov/Gill/Hamrlik/Gorges), young and inexperienced guys struggle with him since he's too unpredictable. A guy like Sergachev would look better with a veteran like Weber who he'd have to back him up and it'd allow him to be able to use his offense/skating better. If you're a young player trying to adjust to the NHL, I think it is easier to play with a guy you'll usually know what he's going to do rather than a guy who randomly will put out a spino-rama and rush at random times.
False. PK Subban improves the play of almost every single player he's played with. Beau's numbers were great with him.

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09-22-2016, 11:22 AM
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I don't think there's anything at all wrong with that statement. It is as close to absolute truth as you can possibly get that Weber is better at helping young players develop and become better versions of themselves than Subban is. Subban is a distraction and is more likely to teach young players how to wear fur coats and hang out with celebrities than to become mature and respectable hockey players. That's if they are on his good side. If they are on his bad side he'll just fight with them at practice.
See above.

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09-22-2016, 11:24 AM
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The last thing you'd want is Subban playing with a younger defenseman. He's doesn't seem like the mentoring type at all.

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09-22-2016, 11:33 AM
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You can't be a good mentor when you're that competitive with your own teammates. Subban is the type of guy that would react negatively when one of his teammates starts to steal the thunder he feels entitled to.

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09-22-2016, 11:38 AM
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It was used in rebuttal to the silly argument that PK was responsible for our pathetic PP. as for Klingberg, he disappears with the minimums I used.

As for this number being weird, it's actual goals we're looking at not possession. And you have to remember that our PP was atrocious. I'm not using this number to say PK is the best PP guy in the league but I am saying that it clearly rebuffs the nonsense that he was the problem on the PP. no other player in the league improved his team's PP more than PK did.

If you're going to fix something, fix what's broken, not what works.

Agreed PK was not the problem or the solution to our PP. It was equally pathetic with or without him. My point is that the stat is wrong. No way can PK's GF60rel at 5-4 be 5.31 if his GF60 is 6.12. the GF60rel says he is 5.31GF60 better than his teammates when he is not on the ice. If he is at 6.12 then the teammates must collectively be at 0.81GF60. Problem is they scored 7 5-4PP goals in the 126 mins of 5-4 pp time he did not play. About 3.33 per 60mins. Intuitively it does not make sense there is some averaging within how that stat is calculated that is messing up the results.

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09-22-2016, 11:41 AM
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Agreed PK was not the problem or the solution to our PP. It was equally pathetic with or without him. My point is that the stat is wrong. No way can PK's GF60rel at 5-4 be 5.31 if his GF60 is 6.12. the GF60rel says he is 5.31GF60 better than his teammates when he is not on the ice. If he is at 6.12 then the teammates must collectively be at 0.81GF60. Problem is they scored 7 5-4PP goals in the 126 mins of 5-4 pp time he did not play. About 3.33 per 60mins. Intuitively it does not make sense there is some averaging within how that stat is calculated that is messing up the results.
It's not equally pathetic when he's on the ice, it's significantly better. I'll take a look at the rest of your post later.

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09-22-2016, 11:50 AM
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Subban's power play numbers were clearly inhibited by Desharnais.

Desharnais scored a pathetic 2.06 p/60 at 5on4 last year. His GF/60 was 5.78, very weak, in spite of a PDO of 1118 which means his stats are inflated.

Galchenyuk had a P/60 of 4.44, and Plekanec of 3.61. Both had PDOs below 1000.

Subban was 71st in the NHL last year for p/60 at 5on4 among defensemen. However he was 18th at 5on4 (Weber was 51st).

Subban's s production will rise next year as he will no longer be dealt the hand of a dd-centric power play.
Subban was not getting his shots through. We all saw his skyscraping wind-up to miss the net or hit the blocker 4 feet away, happen over and over. Stop the excuse making, that is not DD's fault, that is a poor decision making and execution by PK Subban. This isn't going to change in Nashville unless a coach can get him to stop being dumb or selfish.


Shea Weber has a much more dangerous shot than PK, you think he is not being covered or something? He got 20 goals. That is better execution and decision making by the player.

Lidstrom was the last D-man to get PPG, you think he wasn't being covered? He didn't even take slapshots so he could get them off faster. Maybe PK Subban should go watch some Lidstrom tape and he could learn something improve his poor shooting %.

With a NMC kicking in on July 1st the Habs would basically lose all ability to trade him in the future and Bergevin just decided they couldn't take that risk that selfish and/or dumb PK Subban could improve his decision making to really bring him to the next level.

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09-22-2016, 11:59 AM
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Subban was not getting his shots through. We all saw his skyscraping wind-up to miss the net or hit the blocker 4 feet away, happen over and over. Stop the excuse making, that is not DD's fault, that is a poor decision making and execution by PK Subban. This isn't going to change in Nashville unless a coach can get him to stop being dumb or selfish.
A thousand times yes

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09-22-2016, 12:03 PM
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Subban was not getting his shots through. We all saw his skyscraping wind-up to miss the net or hit the blocker 4 feet away, happen over and over. Stop the excuse making, that is not DD's fault, that is a poor decision making and execution by PK Subban. This isn't going to change in Nashville unless a coach can get him to stop being dumb or selfish.


Shea Weber has a much more dangerous shot than PK, you think he is not being covered or something? He got 20 goals. That is better execution and decision making by the player.

Lidstrom was the last D-man to get PPG, you think he wasn't being covered? He didn't even take slapshots so he could get them off faster. Maybe PK Subban should go watch some Lidstrom tape and he could learn something improve his poor shooting %.

With a NMC kicking in on July 1st the Habs would basically lose all ability to trade him in the future and Bergevin just decided they couldn't take that risk that selfish and/or dumb PK Subban could improve his decision making to really bring him to the next level.
Subban didn't have a shooting lane.

Watch the games.

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