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Cal Petersen (2013, 129th) – '16-17: Notre Dame #40 (NCAA)

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Old
05-16-2017, 01:52 PM
  #551
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Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
To elaborate on this, let me outline two separate scenarios. In both scenarios I'll assume that Petersen signs a contract identical to the one Vesey signed.

Scenario 1) Petersen leaves school this summer, becomes a free agent and signs somewhere (where doesn't matter)
Petersen gets a $92.5k signing bonus and a $70k minor league salary. That's $162.5k assuming he spends the entire season in the minors. Even if you don't assume he spends the entire season in the minors, he'd get an additional $4k or so for every day he's on the NHL roster. even if we assume he spends an additional, say, 30 days on the NHL roster (which is no guarantee) that's an additional $127k.
So Petersen would make a minimum of $162.5k. With the assumption he gets 30 days in the NHL, that takes him up to about $290k. With 60 days in the NHL, he makes about $417k.

Scenario 2) Petersen remains in college. Maybe he participates in the Olympics. Doesn't really matter. Following the completion of his season at Notre Dame he signs a contract with Buffalo for the end of the NHL season. He gets a $92.5k signing bonus and about $4.6k for each day he spends on the NHL roster. If Notre Dame makes the Frozen Four again, he might only get one day in the NHL. If they don't, but do get a tournament berth, he could spend about two weeks on the NHL roster. He'd get almost $65k in that situation.
So Petersen would make between $97k and $157k.

So, not taking any sort of performance bonuses into account in either scenario, it's plausible that Petersen could be leaving as little as five thousand dollars on the table by staying in college. Maybe it's more likely he gets a few days on an NHL roster in scenario 1 or gets fewer than 14 days on a roster in scenario 2, but even then we aren't talking about him leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table. You need to get to the point where you take it as a given that he gets a long term call-up at some point for him to lose what is comparatively a large amount of money.
Watch out below, facts and truth bombs incoming!

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05-16-2017, 01:54 PM
  #552
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Yeah, but $

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05-17-2017, 05:27 AM
  #553
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Originally Posted by BaccusDrunk View Post
Why do people keep saying he's going to "turn down a million dollars" when you know there's literally no chance he's not in the minors for the next couple years making maybe 70k-90k tops? Only thing he's really passing up on is whatever signing bonus he gets which I believe also caps at like 90k? It's not A MILLION DOLLARS any way you slice it.

Let's not act like he's going to be in the NHL no matter where he signs. Going back to school/Olympics is a perfectly valid development/career path for a goalie at his current level. Is he really a better prospect than Matt O’Connor a couple years ago who is shockingly still in the minors himself?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
To elaborate on this, let me outline two separate scenarios. In both scenarios I'll assume that Petersen signs a contract identical to the one Vesey signed.

Scenario 1) Petersen leaves school this summer, becomes a free agent and signs somewhere (where doesn't matter)
Petersen gets a $92.5k signing bonus and a $70k minor league salary. That's $162.5k assuming he spends the entire season in the minors. Even if you don't assume he spends the entire season in the minors, he'd get an additional $4k or so for every day he's on the NHL roster. even if we assume he spends an additional, say, 30 days on the NHL roster (which is no guarantee) that's an additional $127k.
So Petersen would make a minimum of $162.5k. With the assumption he gets 30 days in the NHL, that takes him up to about $290k. With 60 days in the NHL, he makes about $417k.

Scenario 2) Petersen remains in college. Maybe he participates in the Olympics. Doesn't really matter. Following the completion of his season at Notre Dame he signs a contract with Buffalo for the end of the NHL season. He gets a $92.5k signing bonus and about $4.6k for each day he spends on the NHL roster. If Notre Dame makes the Frozen Four again, he might only get one day in the NHL. If they don't, but do get a tournament berth, he could spend about two weeks on the NHL roster. He'd get almost $65k in that situation.
So Petersen would make between $97k and $157k.

So, not taking any sort of performance bonuses into account in either scenario, it's plausible that Petersen could be leaving as little as five thousand dollars on the table by staying in college. Maybe it's more likely he gets a few days on an NHL roster in scenario 1 or gets fewer than 14 days on a roster in scenario 2, but even then we aren't talking about him leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table. You need to get to the point where you take it as a given that he gets a long term call-up at some point for him to lose what is comparatively a large amount of money.
You are looking at the front end and what about the back end?

One year of development in the AHL is getting to the NHL faster thus making more money. There is more to it then just the numbers this year. You posters are the ones saying he needs two years in the AHL (or at least one year minimum) it is more than just 100,000 because he would enter the NHL sooner. The sooner he becomes pro the chance at a longer career in the NHL giving him more time to make money. If he is 22 and needs 2 years of AHL that puts him in the NHL at 24 if he plays until he is 35 that is an 11 year career. If he stays in college until 23 and plays in the AHL for 2 years that is 25 and gives him 10 years in the NHL thus earning money over a 10 year career. What is the average salary of an NHL player? OR it doesn't work that way?

The only way he is not losing NHL money is if staying in college is equivalent to 1 year in the AHL. People should understand the sooner you get to the NHL the more money you make. It is not just about hey he has to spend two years in the AHL so he only gives up 100,000 dollars. No that is not true, for how many years he remains out of the NHL he is losing million(s). If he MUST develop two years in the AHL for every year he does not enter into pro is a year of NHL earnings as it shortens his length of his NHL career.

Rebutting that there is more to a decision then money doesn't change the facts of my post.


Last edited by HeartforReinheart: 05-17-2017 at 05:56 AM.
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05-17-2017, 05:33 AM
  #554
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Originally Posted by Lessavyfav View Post
Yeah, but $
If a player doesn't sign because of money the only other options are close to home or chance to win a cup. Which ones do you posters who think he signs here are you using as an example?

You could also use loyalty but as a draft pick what loyalty does a player have other then being thankful a team picked them.


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05-17-2017, 07:23 AM
  #555
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
To elaborate on this, let me outline two separate scenarios. In both scenarios I'll assume that Petersen signs a contract identical to the one Vesey signed.

Scenario 1) Petersen leaves school this summer, becomes a free agent and signs somewhere (where doesn't matter)
Petersen gets a $92.5k signing bonus and a $70k minor league salary. That's $162.5k assuming he spends the entire season in the minors. Even if you don't assume he spends the entire season in the minors, he'd get an additional $4k or so for every day he's on the NHL roster. even if we assume he spends an additional, say, 30 days on the NHL roster (which is no guarantee) that's an additional $127k.
So Petersen would make a minimum of $162.5k. With the assumption he gets 30 days in the NHL, that takes him up to about $290k. With 60 days in the NHL, he makes about $417k.

Scenario 2) Petersen remains in college. Maybe he participates in the Olympics. Doesn't really matter. Following the completion of his season at Notre Dame he signs a contract with Buffalo for the end of the NHL season. He gets a $92.5k signing bonus and about $4.6k for each day he spends on the NHL roster. If Notre Dame makes the Frozen Four again, he might only get one day in the NHL. If they don't, but do get a tournament berth, he could spend about two weeks on the NHL roster. He'd get almost $65k in that situation.
So Petersen would make between $97k and $157k.

So, not taking any sort of performance bonuses into account in either scenario, it's plausible that Petersen could be leaving as little as five thousand dollars on the table by staying in college. Maybe it's more likely he gets a few days on an NHL roster in scenario 1 or gets fewer than 14 days on a roster in scenario 2, but even then we aren't talking about him leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table. You need to get to the point where you take it as a given that he gets a long term call-up at some point for him to lose what is comparatively a large amount of money.
It's not 1 yr of AHL money that's the real stake. It's a year of his time proving himself and developing at a professional level. Staying in college won't likely make teams shorten that path for him later, not at his position. It's also two years of negotiating power, since he could've killed a year of his ELC signing a few weeks ago. In a league where the average player has a 6 year career, you don't want to delay your arrival into your mid 20s and tie yourself to an ELC salary for two years longer than you have to. The front end money is nothing, it's all about how quickly (or whether) you can get that full time gig and that second contract.

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05-17-2017, 07:34 AM
  #556
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goalies are always better suited starting at a lower level than backing up a higher one

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05-17-2017, 08:16 AM
  #557
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
It's not 1 yr of AHL money that's the real stake. It's a year of his time proving himself and developing at a professional level. Staying in college won't likely make teams shorten that path for him later, not at his position. It's also two years of negotiating power, since he could've killed a year of his ELC signing a few weeks ago. In a league where the average player has a 6 year career, you don't want to delay your arrival into your mid 20s and tie yourself to an ELC salary for two years longer than you have to. The front end money is nothing, it's all about how quickly (or whether) you can get that full time gig and that second contract.
Given Peterson or any player that is an NHL regular.
It is the date you enter the NHL the amount of money you can make until you retire. Players aren't stupid and neither are agents.

entering the nhl at 19, 22 or 25 makes a big difference in career earnings. If Peterson goes back to college and still needs two years of AHL he loses his NHL salary for one year entering the NHL at 25 instead of 24.

I am not saying money is the only decision but I am sure it is one of the biggest ones when it comes to the player deciding and not the team on when to go pro and I am sure the agents have to math worked out.


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05-17-2017, 08:56 AM
  #558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeartforReinheart View Post
Given Peterson or any player that is an NHL regular.
It is the date you enter the NHL the amount of money you can make until you retire. Players aren't stupid and neither are agents.

entering the nhl at 19, 22 or 25 makes a big difference in career earnings. If Peterson goes back to college and still needs two years of AHL he loses his NHL salary for one year entering the NHL at 25 instead of 24.

I am not saying money is the only decision but I am sure it is one of the biggest ones when it comes to the player deciding and not the team on when to go pro and I am sure the agents have to math worked out.
And it's also just your odds of making it in general. I know Petersen is a good prospect, but you have to figure it's still <50% he becomes an NHL regular at all. It's hard to imagine he's not developing better at the AHL level than the NCAA.

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05-17-2017, 09:01 AM
  #559
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And it's also just your odds of making it in general. I know Petersen is a good prospect, but you have to figure it's still <50% he becomes an NHL regular at all. It's hard to imagine he's not developing better at the AHL level than the NCAA.
The math is not really about Peterson and Peterson is not basing his decision he doesn't make the NHL. The point is not about if he makes the NHL but the amount of money that is possible a player can make and what a player loses when he decides not to turn pro.

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05-17-2017, 09:04 AM
  #560
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Honestly **** Cal Peterson. He should be grateful to the team that drafted him. If he only cares about making money then he's going to go nowhere. Pompous.

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05-17-2017, 09:14 AM
  #561
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There is so much over-reaction in this thread. So much salt. He hasn't made up his mind, per reports, let him make up his mind before throwing him under the bus.

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05-17-2017, 09:50 AM
  #562
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Originally Posted by HeartforReinheart View Post
You are looking at the front end and what about the back end?

One year of development in the AHL is getting to the NHL faster thus making more money. There is more to it then just the numbers this year. You posters are the ones saying he needs two years in the AHL (or at least one year minimum) it is more than just 100,000 because he would enter the NHL sooner. The sooner he becomes pro the chance at a longer career in the NHL giving him more time to make money. If he is 22 and needs 2 years of AHL that puts him in the NHL at 24 if he plays until he is 35 that is an 11 year career. If he stays in college until 23 and plays in the AHL for 2 years that is 25 and gives him 10 years in the NHL thus earning money over a 10 year career. What is the average salary of an NHL player? OR it doesn't work that way?

The only way he is not losing NHL money is if staying in college is equivalent to 1 year in the AHL. People should understand the sooner you get to the NHL the more money you make. It is not just about hey he has to spend two years in the AHL so he only gives up 100,000 dollars. No that is not true, for how many years he remains out of the NHL he is losing million(s). If he MUST develop two years in the AHL for every year he does not enter into pro is a year of NHL earnings as it shortens his length of his NHL career.

Rebutting that there is more to a decision then money doesn't change the facts of my post.
You said he's turning down a million dollars. He's not. Now you want to move the goalposts that the money is on the back end.

It's been outlined about how much money he is most likely going to "lose", ~150k, maybe a bit more. He can go back to school and I would say yes, that year of NCAA/Olympic time is close enough to having an AHL development year. Apparently the last 4 years weren't development time?

Again, he's a goalie, the odds of him being in the NHL in the next 2-3 years seems pretty suspect to me. I haven't seen/heard anything suggesting he's on some rocket course to the NHL. I don't see how 1 year in the AHL is such a massive accelerant to getting to the NHL vs another school/Olympic year.

The overall point from me is your hyperbole over A MILLION DOLLARS is silly. He's still getting a year of development time in the NCAA/Olympics, and he can then still pursue a pro career with the Sabres/whomever if he wants.

You've got him mapping out every year of his pro career and how much money he'll make during it. I don't think that's a reasonable thought process. That's like saying he should go to the Olympics, because if he can magically take the USA to gold, just think how much more money he'll make on the back end....

He's a kid, he hasn't even made a choice yet.


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05-17-2017, 10:16 AM
  #563
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While I would like to see Peterson signed, mainly because the Sabres goaltending depth in the system is non-existent outside of Ullmark, I wonder how good of a prospect Peterson is? Is he that much better than Matt O'Connor who was signed as a highly regarded UDFA also out of college, and then has proceeded to toil in the AHL, having two very mediocre seasons?

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05-17-2017, 10:25 AM
  #564
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Originally Posted by lancaster14 View Post
While I would like to see Peterson signed, mainly because the Sabres goaltending depth in the system is non-existent outside of Ullmark, I wonder how good of a prospect Peterson is? Is he that much better than Matt O'Connor who was signed as a highly regarded UDFA also out of college, and then has proceeded to toil in the AHL, having two very mediocre seasons?
In my view, he's a better prospect today than O'Connor when he was on the market. Being that he's not Carey Price, though, he could easily end up going how O'Connor has so far. That's just the nature of the position for everyone but the most elite prospects.

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05-17-2017, 12:45 PM
  #565
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Honestly **** Cal Peterson. He should be grateful to the team that drafted him. If he only cares about making money then he's going to go nowhere. Pompous.
A player owes a team absolutely nothing for simply being drafted. This is a business, and that goes both ways.

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05-17-2017, 02:06 PM
  #566
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Honestly **** Cal Peterson. He should be grateful to the team that drafted him. If he only cares about making money then he's going to go nowhere. Pompous.
Meh, every team in the league ignored him for 128 picks before Buffalo took him in the 5th round. He doesn't owe us gratitude for that. We didn't show great foresight in drafting him, he demonstrated great talent and ability in the years following the 2013 draft. He deserves to be in the driver's seat when it comes to his career, and we deserve the first opportunity to offer him max contract and bonus to get him to sign. If he doesn't want to, then it's no skin off any of our backs.

The last thing any of us should want is a goalie who doesn't want to be part of our organization but was forced to.

It's also worth noting that there's almost zero clear indication of his intentions. For all any of us know, he could sign this afternoon.

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05-17-2017, 02:30 PM
  #567
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Jack Eichel should demand a four year contract after his ELC is up. He doesn't owe us any gratitude or loyalty it's simply a business and a four year deal means he can choose where to play and maximize money. So if Jack ends up leaving in free agency 5 years from now we can't be upset then right?

Part of me misses the old cba. These players are so spoiled, imagine them not hitting group 4 UFA until age 31!

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05-17-2017, 02:39 PM
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Jack Eichel should demand a four year contract after his ELC is up. He doesn't owe us any gratitude or loyalty it's simply a business and a four year deal means he can choose where to play and maximize money. So if Jack ends up leaving in free agency 5 years from now we can't be upset then right?

Part of me misses the old cba. These players are so spoiled, imagine them not hitting group 4 UFA until age 31!
Maybe he will. Players and agents demand the most money and flexibility they can get, teams demand the most term they can get for the best price. It's called negotiating. Jack will get his money and the team will get the term. Lets not forget that you're comparing apples to grapes with a second deal vs an ELC, which is capped on both term and value...no matter which team Petersen signs with he's going to get the exact same term and money.

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05-17-2017, 02:39 PM
  #569
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You said he's turning down a million dollars. He's not. Now you want to move the goalposts that the money is on the back end.

It's been outlined about how much money he is most likely going to "lose", ~150k, maybe a bit more. He can go back to school and I would say yes, that year of NCAA/Olympic time is close enough to having an AHL development year. Apparently the last 4 years weren't development time?

Again, he's a goalie, the odds of him being in the NHL in the next 2-3 years seems pretty suspect to me. I haven't seen/heard anything suggesting he's on some rocket course to the NHL. I don't see how 1 year in the AHL is such a massive accelerant to getting to the NHL vs another school/Olympic year.

The overall point from me is your hyperbole over A MILLION DOLLARS is silly. He's still getting a year of development time in the NCAA/Olympics, and he can then still pursue a pro career with the Sabres/whomever if he wants.

You've got him mapping out every year of his pro career and how much money he'll make during it. I don't think that's a reasonable thought process. That's like saying he should go to the Olympics, because if he can magically take the USA to gold, just think how much more money he'll make on the back end....

He's a kid, he hasn't even made a choice yet.
My god you just completely ignored facts to think he will only lose 150,000 to stay away from the NHL for three years instead of two. If you want to play ignorant thats on you. You are also implying development in the NCAA for goalies is the same as development as the AHL what can I say other then speechless.

I didn't map out anything...hyperbole much? You don't even get the concept of the million dollars because his NHL career is one year shorter. It is probably a bit complex for you. I can't really explain to you in more laymens terms other than staying in college does jeopardize one year of development thus entering the NHL one year older and losing earnings of that year in the NHL.

So the bolded you are thinking what? 4-5 years before he sees the NHL? Really? So if he did sign a contract and turned pro this year you think more like 4-5 years in the AHL? Ok interesting.


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05-17-2017, 02:52 PM
  #570
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Nobody owes anything in this league. Speculating about how much money lost is also irrelevant. He could sign with a team like Chicago and them toilet in the minors for years or he could sign with us, prove to be a stud and back up Robin in 2018/2019. This could also go vice versa but we will never know the true answer. If he wants to sign with us and take his time, we welcome you with open arms. If you want to wait and go to FA and sign with a different team, best of luck you earned it. I think a lot of people are still sour on Vesey. Cal hasn't said a word so at this point there is no reason to assume he is leaving and we still own his rights as of today.

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05-17-2017, 08:15 PM
  #571
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Originally Posted by HeartforReinheart View Post
My god you just completely ignored facts to think he will only lose 150,000 to stay away from the NHL for three years instead of two. If you want to play ignorant thats on you. You are also implying development in the NCAA for goalies is the same as development as the AHL what can I say other then speechless.

I didn't map out anything...hyperbole much? You don't even get the concept of the million dollars because his NHL career is one year shorter. It is probably a bit complex for you. I can't really explain to you in more laymens terms other than staying in college does jeopardize one year of development thus entering the NHL one year older and losing earnings of that year in the NHL.

So the bolded you are thinking what? 4-5 years before he sees the NHL? Really? So if he did sign a contract and turned pro this year you think more like 4-5 years in the AHL? Ok interesting.
Nice job on the ad hominem attacks. Can you get more obnoxious?

I'm not ignoring any facts. You're making up conjecture as to the length and success of a NCAA prospects NHL career and projecting losses on future earnings. Why don't you let him make it there first? His future maybe NHL career is maybe possibly a year shorter because he stayed in school another year? Chain some more maybe's together.

If he goes back to NCAA/Olympics, he's delaying his ELC by ONE year and losing 150-200k and maybe "hurting" his development by some debatable amount. Playing in the NCAA got him this far, I'm sure another year will be a disaster for him.

You came out and said he was losing "a million dollars" and it was then pointed out that he wasn't unless he was full time in the NHL, which he won't be. Then you moved the storyline to the "back end" of his career. A career in the NHL he doesn't have yet, and may never have. It's a silly way to do it, but whatever.

I said it may take 2-3 years for him to reach the NHL, hence suspect to project NHL salary quicker than that, not sure why you stretched that out to 4-5 years. You may want to check out goalie development and how quickly it takes for them to stick in the NHL even as a backup. Many play 3-4 years of junior/NCAA and then 3+ in the AHL. I would post some examples, but frankly I can't see how it's worth the effort. Look it up yourself. I"m sure you'll cherry pick something.

You don't know what's best for him unless you are Cal Petersen posing as a random HF poster. If he stays in school he's losing some money that he would otherwise earn, but it's not A MILLION DOLLARS, and that choice it utterly up to him.

I don't particularly care either way outside of the Sabres perhaps losing a prospect, but you seemed unaware of how much they actually make on an ELC in the minors. Then you went sideways and now it's a big waste of time.

Congratulations on maintaining the high HFboards standards.

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05-17-2017, 09:01 PM
  #572
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^^^Moreover, to support your point that it's not a guaranteed MILLION DOLLARS or even close to it:

Not only is there the probability factor whether Petersen (or any similar player, regardless of position played) becomes a regular, but there is also variability in the development duration before Petersen (or any similar player) makes it in the NHL.

That variability in duration-to-make-the-NHL will be a function of overall depth in the organization he signs in, coaching & development, injuries, and even the total number of NHL-caliber players at the given position and how that changes year over year. Heck, whether and when the NHL adds a 32nd team is a factor too.

Bottom line, even with a draft choice as high as Alex Nylander, one really can't bracket with high accuracy the money he'll earn in a career, nor assert with high certainty whether intentionally waiting a year to sign (or not) will have a meaningful impact on those career earnings. There's just too many factors in play.

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05-17-2017, 09:12 PM
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JLewyB
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When Kris Baker, the biggest Sabres optimist, says, "yeah, I don't know why he would choose Buffalo over Chicago," then I'm assuming he's gone. I don't have an opinion on it really. I personally think he's going to be really good but I also think Lehner is super underrated so we're essentially losing our future backup goaltender.

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05-18-2017, 06:15 AM
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Jim Bob
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Who is this Peterson guy people keep talking about?

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05-18-2017, 07:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
Who is this Peterson guy people keep talking about?
Judd.

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