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The Luongo Thread: Part LXMIV - Cant stop. Wont stop.

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07-03-2013, 01:13 PM
  #376
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Originally Posted by Dado View Post
First, Luongo put up a 0.920 at ES this past season. If you're going to play statistical hanky panky, you have to do it for all players if you want to make comparisons.

Second, even if he had hit 0.930 at ES, that is no longer elite. The league had three regulars this past season put up 0.940 or above, and another five at 0.935 or higher.

He's still a quality starter, and consistency is worth paying for. Assuming his head will be in the game after what's happened, the team's problems won't be in net, IMO.

What's your definition of elite? Statistical hanky panky was the highlight of your post. Nicely put.

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07-03-2013, 01:15 PM
  #377
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What's your definition of elite? Statistical hanky panky was the highlight of your post. Nicely put.
I think what has made Luongo Elite is the consistency year to year rather than being off the charts any one year. The league is filled with flash in the bottle goalies who have a amazing vezinesque season only to fall into obscurity ina few years (Theodore, Mason to name a couple).

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07-03-2013, 01:17 PM
  #378
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^ Agreed. And this past year a bunch of stats are weird anyway. Is Riberio now an elite player after going PPG. Something he hasn't ever done before?

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07-03-2013, 01:17 PM
  #379
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Originally Posted by Dado View Post
Luongo put up a 0.920 at ES this past season. If you're going to play statistical hanky panky, you have to do it for all players if you want to make comparisons. Even if he had hit 0.930 at ES, that is no longer elite. The league had three regulars this past season put up 0.940 or above, and another five at 0.935 or higher.

The bar has been raised.

He's still a quality starter, and consistency is worth paying for. Assuming his head will be in the game after what's happened, the team's problems won't be in net, IMO.
When Luongo consistently reaches a certain level, over a lot bigger sample than a short 48 game regular season, I wouldn't call it statistical hanky panky.

It's fine if you want to take 10 other NHL goalies over him...I don't.

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07-03-2013, 01:19 PM
  #380
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What's your definition of elite?
A starter who can keep his job, for starters.

 
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07-03-2013, 01:21 PM
  #381
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That's the idea. Spend that money elsewhere to get the same overall benefit. Only now, the value of said player is clearly higher than the equivalent value in net. Further, that 3-4 win doesn't have the age/mental concerns we know Luongo will have.

As far as the math goes, I have seen and have looked into exactly this difference in sv% vs goals allowed resulting in W/L. I understand the logic. I just don't think it's that important anymore given the competence of goaltenders, on average, around the league. If one could pull a Thomas off the scrap heap, and he ends up giving said team a .920 sv%, then they are benefitted by being able to spend the money elsewhere. Who knows? Maybe you only get a 1-2 game drop from the switch from elite to good, but then make up an even greater difference with the better forward you are able to add? The net gain may be 3-4 games of improvement overall.
I mean, it makes sense that there isn't as much of a disparity between the best and worst NHL goaltender as there is the best and worst skater - there are only 60 spots open at a time, as opposed to 360 forwards and 160 defencemen, give or take. I think that's the model some general managers are working from, and while the results are intriguing, they're by no means definitive. Too many variables at play to ever truly get a read on what disinvesting at the goaltending position gets you.

But I do know this - a less competent goaltender on last years' team, and the Canucks probably have a 3-5% chance of drafting MacKinnon last Sunday.

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07-03-2013, 01:21 PM
  #382
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Originally Posted by Dado View Post
A starter who can keep his job, for starters.
So if two elite goalies exist on a team, one losing his job by default, that one ceases to be elite. Gotcha.

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07-03-2013, 01:25 PM
  #383
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Originally Posted by Finkle is Einhorn View Post
I mean, it makes sense that there isn't as much of a disparity between the best and worst NHL goaltender as there is the best and worst skater - there are only 60 spots open at a time, as opposed to 360 forwards and 160 defencemen, give or take. I think that's the model some general managers are working from, and while the results are intriguing, they're by no means definitive. Too many variables at play to ever truly get a read on what disinvesting at the goaltending position gets you.

But I do know this - a less competent goaltender on last years' team, and the Canucks probably have a 3-5% chance of drafting MacKinnon last Sunday.

If everything else on the team stays the same, sure. But this assumes that the money saved isn't put to better use up front.

I'm a bit biased in this because I do believe in the way teams like DET/CHI structure their teams as opposed to BOS/LA do. In a vacuum, I prefer the money spent on skaters.

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07-03-2013, 01:29 PM
  #384
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^ Agreed. And this past year a bunch of stats are weird anyway. Is Riberio now an elite player after going PPG. Something he hasn't ever done before?
Luongo has never played all that well whenever he's not playing alot (eg., starters duty). We've all seen how well he's looked after a number of games off. Reason why I'd throw his past season's numbers 'out the window' (at when judging him in a starters role).

He's gotten better at it (negative effects from rust) but it's the other constant in his entire career.

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07-03-2013, 01:30 PM
  #385
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If everything else on the team stays the same, sure. But this assumes that the money saved isn't put to better use up front.
I imagine the dollars that Detroit and Chicago had to spend as a result of cheap goaltending were, while basically untraceable, perfectly utilized. It's a formula that can work, no doubt, but if it goes towards a Ballard-type acquisition, you're hooped.

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07-03-2013, 01:30 PM
  #386
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
If everything else on the team stays the same, sure. But this assumes that the money saved isn't put to better use up front.

I'm a bit biased in this because I do believe in the way teams like DET/CHI structure their teams as opposed to BOS/LA do. In a vacuum, I prefer the money spent on skaters.
Detroit is paying Jimmy Howard at the same cap hit as Luongo. In the past sure they skimped on it, but they also targetted elite or high end net minders too (Hasek and Cujo to name two).

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07-03-2013, 01:30 PM
  #387
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1500 shots is not enough to evaluate a goaltender, you need about double that as a strong basis.

Crawford is a below average goalie who had a good 48 games and playoffs. His other career numbers support this.
It's not enough to evaluate a goalie if you're trying to predict future performance. In that sense you're correct that Crawford is merely average. But that doesn't mean he didn't perform quite well this season.

Maybe it was a hot streak, maybe it was luck. But a team pinning their hopes on a below average starter getting lucky for an entire season is no different than going into a season with mediocre 1st line center and hoping he randomly puts up 80 points.

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07-03-2013, 01:33 PM
  #388
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It's not enough to evaluate a goalie if you're trying to predict future performance. In that sense you're correct that Crawford is merely average. But that doesn't mean he didn't perform quite well this season.

Maybe it was a hot streak, maybe it was luck. But a team pinning their hopes on a below average starter getting lucky for an entire season is no different than going into a season with mediocre 1st line center and hoping he randomly puts up 80 points.
Oh, okay I understand your point and I agree.

Elite goaltending gives you a higher chance of a goalie getting hot enough to win it all, IMHO. Look at the Kings last year. I bet you that it was Crawford over Quick in net they miss the playoffs and become the biggest joke of the year after the off season they had. Quick simply stood on his head and gave the team a chance to get the **** together. An average starter likely can't provide that for you.

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07-03-2013, 01:40 PM
  #389
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
Exactly. Over a 60 game regular season for a starter, you're probably looking at around 1500 shots at ES. The difference between a 929 ES goaltender and a 919 ES goaltender is about 15 goals at ES. That's probably 3-4 wins, which is the same value as you'll get from a very good/elite forward. Even Crosby is probably only worth 5-6 on his own.

The only real question at this point is whether there's any ability for a team to tailor playstyle to a goaltender, which is totally unquantifiable as far as I know (at least for the published numbers we see). But there are teams that look at shot location, so it wouldn't surprise me if this is a thing that's happening behind the scenes. Like, if you have a goaltender that's weak on second saves or gives up more rebounds on the whole, you play your defense to collapse and clear loose pucks.
I remember reading somewhere that most goalies have an absurdly low save percentage on rebound shots (I think it was defined as a shot within 10-15 feet taken within 2 or 3 seconds after another shot) so in a way it does make intuitive sense to me that a team could tailor their system to increase a goalie's sv% by keeping a higher proportion of shots to the outside.

At the same time though, past evidence based on goalies who switch teams shows virtually no more variation in sv% from year to year than goalies who stay on the same team, so who knows what kind of effect a team is having. People like to point out guys like Bryzgalov, but the best sv% of his career was with Gretzky as his coach.

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Regardless of how you get there, I think having that goaltending is important. The only way an average goaltender would be useful is if you paid him like 950k a year -- someone like Ericsson -- and were able to spend another 5-6 million on a 3-4 win player. That seems possible I guess.
Yeah, it's like any other position. You really want a guy who can outperform his contract. I don't think going cheap on goaltending is inherently any smarter than doing the same with any other position. I suppose there's more chance of a $3M goalie outplaying his contract than a $6M one, but you can say that about any position.

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07-03-2013, 01:44 PM
  #390
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Yeah, it's like any other position. You really want a guy who can outperform his contract. I don't think going cheap on goaltending is inherently any smarter than doing the same with any other position. I suppose there's more chance of a $3M goalie outplaying his contract than a $6M one, but you can say that about any position.
I think the big thing is that you're far more likely to get a UFA goalie on a sub-$2 million deal that can give you $4-6 million goaltending than you are to find a sub-$2 million UFA skater to give you the same type of production.

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07-03-2013, 01:55 PM
  #391
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I think the big thing is that you're far more likely to get a UFA goalie on a sub-$2 million deal that can give you $4-6 million goaltending than you are to find a sub-$2 million UFA skater to give you the same type of production.
Yes. Only downside I see to that is if you take a swing and miss, you're in a much worse position than swinging and missing on a LW. You need to get lucky and have some pretty good pro scouting at that position.


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07-03-2013, 01:59 PM
  #392
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Yes. Only downside I see to that is if you take a swing and miss, you're in a much worse position than swinging and missing on a LW. You need to get lucky and have some prety good pro scouting at that position.
Or just sign goalies who have high career SV%s. That seems to be a winning strategy for teams that end up with good cheap goalies.

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07-03-2013, 02:04 PM
  #393
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Originally Posted by Finkle is Einhorn View Post
I imagine the dollars that Detroit and Chicago had to spend as a result of cheap goaltending were, while basically untraceable, perfectly utilized. It's a formula that can work, no doubt, but if it goes towards a Ballard-type acquisition, you're hooped.
Of course. It demands a certain level of competence from Gillis to find that acquisition... I leave it at that.

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Detroit is paying Jimmy Howard at the same cap hit as Luongo. In the past sure they skimped on it, but they also targetted elite or high end net minders too (Hasek and Cujo to name two).
They are paying Jimmy Howard now, after years of service, with a contract through his prime. However, they had many chances to cut bait and bring in a more established starter, but they didn't do it. It's a mix of money and utility. If the market or the pipeline has not stable replacement, re-sign him. As we've seen with many teams out there, the market tends to give them what they need in regards to goaltending, and if it's not there, they go cheap on it.

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Yes. Only downside I see to that is if you take a swing and miss, you're in a much worse position than swinging and missing on a LW. You need to get lucky and have some prety good pro scouting at that position.
Well yes, the same point Finkle brings up. That said, it's a lot harder to miss given the options out there, relative to skaters. The team is also insulated by having Lack and Eriksson already in house, so the worst case scenario may not be bleak at all.

I seriously think the team should explore going this route. Now, or in the near future.

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07-03-2013, 02:17 PM
  #394
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I remember reading somewhere that most goalies have an absurdly low save percentage on rebound shots (I think it was defined as a shot within 10-15 feet taken within 2 or 3 seconds after another shot) so in a way it does make intuitive sense to me that a team could tailor their system to increase a goalie's sv% by keeping a higher proportion of shots to the outside.

At the same time though, past evidence based on goalies who switch teams shows virtually no more variation in sv% from year to year than goalies who stay on the same team, so who knows what kind of effect a team is having. People like to point out guys like Bryzgalov, but the best sv% of his career was with Gretzky as his coach.
I agree. I think it's something most teams probably already do anyway. I also think goaltending -- particularly at even strength -- is largely team independent. Some teams seem quite skilled at always having a man between the shooter and the net (Kings 2012) or boxing out rebounds (Bruins 2011), which I would think would perhaps reduce shot quality at the margins, but over the course of 1500+ shots, it's probably not hugely meaningful.

I think I'm more curious if moving forward this will become a factor, as teams become more versed in tracking shot location data. I think most of what we've seen suggests it hasn't played a large role previously, even if the nature of the samples (too small, other roster changes, etc.) make it hard to say that definitively. Just wonder if that will always be the case, as it seems intuitive to me that certain goaltenders excel at stopping the puck in different ways: tracking versus blocking, rebound control, agility, etc.


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Yeah, it's like any other position. You really want a guy who can outperform his contract. I don't think going cheap on goaltending is inherently any smarter than doing the same with any other position. I suppose there's more chance of a $3M goalie outplaying his contract than a $6M one, but you can say that about any position.
Not only that, but goaltender health seems a bit more controllable to me. It's not like they don't get injured, but it's less likely a guy is going to get elbowed and be out for 50 games the way a forward might be. I have nothing to back that up, however...

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07-03-2013, 02:22 PM
  #395
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Or just sign goalies who have high career SV%s. That seems to be a winning strategy for teams that end up with good cheap goalies.
That's true -- if they're available at a good price. I'm curious to see if either of Lack/Ericsson acquit themselves competently. It could allow the Canucks an out on the Luongo situation next summer if they choose to pursue it. If he has a terrific season, he might even accrue some trade value

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07-03-2013, 02:28 PM
  #396
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I seriously think the team should explore going this route. Now, or in the near future.
In the near future, cheap goaltending options won't be much lower than Luongo's cap hit.

Capgeek has Luongo 11th in cap hit for 2013-2014.

Next summer we'll be looking at these goalies hitting the market:

Corey Crawford, Semyon Varlamov, Dubnyk, Halak, Miller, Lundqvist, Hiller....not sure how many of these guys will end up making less than $5.3.....I'd imagine only Dubnyk and Halak will make less.

Summer 2015 will have these goalies hit the market:

Fasth, Anderson, Niemi, Schneider and Boborovsky.

With the rising cap, Luongo will very shortly be in the bottom half of NHL starter cap hits.

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07-03-2013, 02:35 PM
  #397
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In the near future, cheap goaltending options won't be much lower than Luongo's cap hit.

Capgeek has Luongo 11th in cap hit for 2013-2014.

Next summer we'll be looking at these goalies hitting the market:

Corey Crawford, Semyon Varlamov, Dubnyk, Halak, Miller, Lundqvist, Hiller....not sure how many of these guys will end up making less than $5.3.....I'd imagine only Dubnyk and Halak will make less.

Summer 2015 will have these goalies hit the market:

Fasth, Anderson, Niemi, Schneider and Boborovsky.

With the rising cap, Luongo will very shortly be in the bottom half of NHL starter cap hits.

And there will be a influx of goalies willing to work at or near the minimum. No different than it is now. Luongo's contract may stay static while others rise, but it's about getting a close-to-Luongo level performance, at age 35+, from another goalie, for a 3-4m difference. Not elite, but good enough. This is a good risk to take IMO.

You are not also accounting for the fluctuations in pay for established starters coming off bad years/contracts. Like Bryz, or Thomas, Nabokov. Such players could provide a decent-good performance, at a fraction of the cost, despite having long track records behind them.

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07-03-2013, 03:22 PM
  #398
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A starter who can keep his job, for starters.
I have to think as usual you are out to lunch on your assessment of Lu. I think taking the lockout shortened year as evidence of what goalies are good is a mistake, much like assessing the good teams from last year.

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07-03-2013, 03:31 PM
  #399
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Anyone else think that Luongo is going to do very well under Torts?

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07-03-2013, 03:34 PM
  #400
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Anyone else think that Luongo is going to do very well under Torts?
I do. I think Torts will be able to get Lu back on his game. Not saying AV and Lu had a bad relationship but I just don't think AVs lack of confidence in him helped anything. I.E: starting an injured Schneider over Luongo again SJ.

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