HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Vancouver Canucks
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

[VAN/NJD] Canucks trade G Cory Schneider to Devils for 9th Overall Pick - Part II

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-19-2013, 11:46 AM
  #976
silvercanuck
Registered User
 
silvercanuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,403
vCash: 500
Is Luongo much better than an average NHL goaltender and how far will his play drop over the next nine seasons? That is the only question that needs to be asked. The Canucks are committed to Luongo for a very long time and if Luongo falters they are totally screwed.

silvercanuck is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 11:48 AM
  #977
rune74
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 4,931
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by silvercanuck View Post
Is Luongo much better than an average NHL goaltender and how far will his play drop over the next nine seasons? That is the only question that needs to be asked. The Canucks are committed to Luongo for a very long time and if Luongo falters they are totally screwed.
Um, yes? How is he not better then an average goalie?

Has everyone forgot who he is all of a sudden?

rune74 is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 11:51 AM
  #978
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,442
vCash: 833
I think Gillis is a terrific GM. I dont' think he's perfect, but I can't think of many times he's made decisions that weren't at least defensible. His decision making process seems sound, even if I don't always agree with the ultimate decision.

I can't really imagine someone being more comfortable with any of the previous GMs the franchise has had, and I can't think of many other GM's in the league that are as consistently on point as Gillis is.

Proto is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 12:02 PM
  #979
silvercanuck
Registered User
 
silvercanuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,403
vCash: 500
last season:

25th in GAA
31st in Sv%

2011-2012
20th in GAA when you remove tenders with <10 games
15th in Sv% when you remove tenders with <10 games

Clearly, Luongo is not this top five or top ten goaltender that people used to talk about. He is an average goaltender at this stage of his career and his skills are deteriorating as he gets older.

silvercanuck is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 12:41 PM
  #980
rune74
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 4,931
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by silvercanuck View Post
last season:

25th in GAA
31st in Sv%

2011-2012
20th in GAA when you remove tenders with <10 games
15th in Sv% when you remove tenders with <10 games

Clearly, Luongo is not this top five or top ten goaltender that people used to talk about. He is an average goaltender at this stage of his career and his skills are deteriorating as he gets older.
Hmm in 2011 to 2012 what was his SV% 0.919 sure looks bad only 8 goalies above him who had played 50 or more games...13th in the nhl, 2.41 GA as well. 17th in the nhl only 9 goalies who played more then 50 games above him. that year according to this site:

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seaso...ies-stats.html


Weird Carey Price, Ryan Miller and Ryan Ward all had worse stats then him....they must be on the decline to and are only average.

rune74 is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 12:47 PM
  #981
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,442
vCash: 833
I don't know how people can look at the wide variation in year-to-year special teams save percentage and think it's a more useful metric than ES goaltending.

Even if you think SH goaltending is a true, repeatable talent, I think it would be possible for a team to shelter a poor SH goaltender by playing more disciplined hockey (and improving penalty killing), whereas there has been no evidence to suggest you can protect a bad ES goaltender in any way but limiting shots.

If the Canucks can be a more disciplined team, I think Luongo has 3-4 more elite seasons in him, followed by a modest decline.

Proto is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 01:18 PM
  #982
Wisp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 5,730
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proto View Post
If the Canucks can be a more disciplined team, I think Luongo has 3-4 more elite seasons in him, followed by a modest decline.
There basically isn't a coach with a higher record of strong discipline than Tortorella, so I wonder if the Canucks were thinking the same thing you are here.

Wisp is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 01:40 PM
  #983
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,442
vCash: 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wisp View Post
There basically isn't a coach with a higher record of strong discipline than Tortorella, so I wonder if the Canucks were thinking the same thing you are here.
That's what made me come around on the Tortorella hiring, honestly. He might be a jerk, but a coach with a team consistently in the bottom 5 in times shorthanded is doing something very right, especially in contrast to AV's undisciplined wild bunch.

Proto is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 01:42 PM
  #984
tantalum
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Missouri
Posts: 11,684
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by silvercanuck View Post
last season:

25th in GAA
31st in Sv%
Not a good year stats wise. also a very small sample size that one game threw the numbers all out of whack.

Quote:
2011-2012
20th in GAA when you remove tenders with <10 games
15th in Sv% when you remove tenders with <10 games
Seriously? The guy appears in over 50 games and you are comparing him to guys with 10? The more apt comparison would be to compare him to other starters (i.e. over 40 games)

here's some stats: 31 wins, 0.919 SV%. Damn that sucks.

Quote:
Clearly, Luongo is not this top five or top ten goaltender that people used to talk about. He is an average goaltender at this stage of his career and his skills are deteriorating as he gets older.
But Halak and Lehtonen are because the stats in 2011-12 would say that based on your analysis.

0.919 is not really average and considering that with the exception of this past 20 game sample and his rookie season, he has been at or around that mark suggests that he will be right back there again. He isn't one that bounces down to 0.895 on year and up to 0.935 the next. He is consistently around the 0.920 mark. If having Luongo at around 0.920 SV% has a negative effect on the team then wow are they ever in trouble. If they need a 0.930 SV% there is so much wrong with the team that it wouldn't even really matter that they had such a goaltender (and keep in mind until Schneider can actually do that with a starter's workload he hasn't proven he can do it).

tantalum is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 01:48 PM
  #985
Bankerguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,050
vCash: 500
I am not the biggest Luongo fan but i have to step in to this conversation....

You cant look at last years numbers and draw any useful conclusions

Luongo is a SLOW starter but picks up his game later on....also, the sample size is too small...

Over a 65 game season, Luongos numbers will sparkle like usual....

Also, i would argue that even when he puts up a .920 save %..he's actually BETTER than that..because he has a few blowouts a yaer..like really bad blowouts where he lets like 7 goals....if you exclude those from the sample and recalculate his number look even better.

Bankerguy is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 01:52 PM
  #986
Samzilla
Prust & Dorsett are
 
Samzilla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 11,560
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bankerguy View Post
I am not the biggest Luongo fan but i have to step in to this conversation....

You cant look at last years numbers and draw any useful conclusions

Luongo is a SLOW starter but picks up his game later on....also, the sample size is too small...

Over a 65 game season, Luongos numbers will sparkle like usual....

Also, i would argue that even when he puts up a .920 save %..he's actually BETTER than that..because he has a few blowouts a yaer..like really bad blowouts where he lets like 7 goals....if you exclude those from the sample and recalculate his number look even better.
If you're gonna take out his blowout outliers from the samples, should you not also remove his shutout outliers too? You can't just take blowouts away from the equation and say, "well if you take out the games where he let in a lot of goals...his stats look way better!" That's no more valid than saying "If you take away Lu's shutouts his stats look worse."

That being said, perhaps we have a coach now who won't hang him out to dry and leave him on the ice to get lit up. That'll help his numbers a lot more than just taking them out of the stats after the fact.

Samzilla is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 02:00 PM
  #987
overtherainbow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 116
vCash: 500
A reason why you would exclude blow outs is because the quality of shots increases as the team stops trying/playing defense. Lackluster defense skews his stats and thus you can't accurately predict performance based on that. On the other hand close games and shut outs where teams are still trying to score or play defense are better for predicting future performance.

overtherainbow is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 02:02 PM
  #988
Barney Gumble
Registered User
 
Barney Gumble's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 22,434
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proto View Post
That's what made me come around on the Tortorella hiring, honestly. He might be a jerk, but a coach with a team consistently in the bottom 5 in times shorthanded is doing something very right, especially in contrast to AV's undisciplined wild bunch.
Which also especially problematic when the officiating seems to not go your way.

Barney Gumble is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 02:15 PM
  #989
Reign Nateo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,737
vCash: 500
You have to admit the numbers look concerning when compared to Schneider's in front of the same team. Maybe they played different for him, but that's a another can of worms altogether. It's a bit worrisome.

I don't think Luongo is an elite goaltender anymore. But he doesn't have to be. 'Elite' to me means you're one of the, if not the best goaltender in the sport. Luongo is not on that level anymore. To succeed, he just has to be solid from start to finish. He's not the athlete he once was and has a lot of miles on him. The days of him putting up top 5 or even top 10 numbers are likely gone, but we can still do well with him in net. It's really up to him to do it though.

Reign Nateo is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 02:17 PM
  #990
Reign Nateo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,737
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samzilla View Post
If you're gonna take out his blowout outliers from the samples, should you not also remove his shutout outliers too? You can't just take blowouts away from the equation and say, "well if you take out the games where he let in a lot of goals...his stats look way better!" That's no more valid than saying "If you take away Lu's shutouts his stats look worse."

That being said, perhaps we have a coach now who won't hang him out to dry and leave him on the ice to get lit up. That'll help his numbers a lot more than just taking them out of the stats after the fact.
In baseball at the end of the year a pitcher takes away his 5-7 best starts, and his 5-7 worst and what's left gives you a pretty good idea of what kind of year you had. I think the same thing could be applied to goalies.

Reign Nateo is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 02:19 PM
  #991
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,442
vCash: 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reign Nateo View Post
In baseball at the end of the year a pitcher takes away his 5-7 best starts, and his 5-7 worst and what's left gives you a pretty good idea of what kind of year you had. I think the same thing could be applied to goalies.
Or you just look at the xFIP and ERA+ and call it a day!

Proto is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 02:42 PM
  #992
RandV
It's a wolf v2.0
 
RandV's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 16,235
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by rune74 View Post
Um, yes? How is he not better then an average goalie?

Has everyone forgot who he is all of a sudden?
Haha pretty much. Or they used his losing the starting job to 'backup goalie with sheltered starts' Schneider as a sleight against Luongo rather than a credit to Schneider.

RandV is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 03:05 PM
  #993
silvercanuck
Registered User
 
silvercanuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,403
vCash: 500
Nothing like the off-season and the usual cherry picked Luongo stats... Never mind the 30 other goaltenders that we're comparing him to or the goaltender that played on the same team as Luongo. Nahh we'll just remove Luongo's worst starts and use real stats for everyone else. That sounds fair. I bet every GM that Gillis used that argument on was lining up to trade for our "top five" goalie.

silvercanuck is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 03:09 PM
  #994
Reign Nateo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,737
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by silvercanuck View Post
Nothing like the off-season and the usual cherry picked Luongo stats... Never mind the 30 other goaltenders that we're comparing him to or the goaltender that played on the same team as Luongo. Nahh we'll just remove Luongo's worst starts and use real stats for everyone else. That sounds fair. I bet every GM that Gillis used that argument on was lining up to trade for our "top five" goalie.
This is something people seem to be missing. Contract or no contract, if Luongo was still considered an "elite" or "top 5" goalies, there would have been even one team willing to give an asset for him. There wasn't. Not even one. That tells you all you need to know about Luongo's status around the league right now.

I appreciate the support and affection some Canucks fans seem to have for Luongo, but we need to look realistically at what we have in net. It's a lot of uncertainty from where I stand.

Reign Nateo is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 03:11 PM
  #995
Wisp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 5,730
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reign Nateo View Post
This is something people seem to be missing. Contract or no contract, if Luongo was still considered an "elite" or "top 5" goalies, there would have been even one team willing to give an asset for him. There wasn't. Not even one. That tells you all you need to know about Luongo's status right now.
Caman. Nobody wanted to give assets for Grabovski, Briere, or Lecavalier either. Two of those guys ended up getting some pretty decent deals as UFAs, though.

Wisp is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 03:14 PM
  #996
Reign Nateo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,737
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wisp View Post
Caman. Nobody wanted to give assets for Grabovski, Briere, or Lecavalier either. Two of those guys ended up getting some pretty decent deals as UFAs, though.
Anyone still under the delusion that those are top centres though? That's my point.

If they were elite players, they would have garnered a return, regardless of contract, but they aren't. And neither is Luongo.

Reign Nateo is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 03:25 PM
  #997
BrandonL
Registered User
 
BrandonL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,312
vCash: 500
I'm interested to see what this kid can do over the next couple of years, I probably haven't been this excited about the Canucks acquiring a player since Luongo.

BrandonL is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 03:29 PM
  #998
Wisp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 5,730
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reign Nateo View Post
Anyone still under the delusion that those are top centres though? That's my point.
Lecavalier is still good for 0.84 ppg, so it's pretty asinine to insist calling him a top centre is a "delusion." Grabovski, too, was a great two way talent before getting buried by Carlyle. Kesler-like in a lot of ways. Still is, probably. Not sure what the hold up on him is.

I don't know what sort of numbers Luongo is going to post next year but he's been ridiculously consistent over his career and is coming off a light work load. I wouldn't want to bet against him.

Wisp is offline  
Old
07-19-2013, 03:33 PM
  #999
OgoBoHo
FIRE BENNING
 
OgoBoHo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 28,006
vCash: 53
Time for a new thread.

Closed.

Part III: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...1#post69396151

OgoBoHo is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:57 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.