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Penguins draft strategy: Cause for concern?

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Old
03-10-2014, 06:10 PM
  #226
Warm Cookies
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
Thornton has eleven 20 goal seasons out of 14 full seasons and 340 career goals. Using his goals per game this year as a comparison to Bennett's situation is definitely cherry picking stats.

My point with this statement is that even if you don't think it's fair to judge Bennett by his goal scoring in the NHL (which I mostly agree with) using Thornton as an example doesn't really help your case as much as you think.
Shady, do you understand why, if someone were describing Thornton's impact, it would be a misrepresentation to only say that he was an 11-time 20 goal scorer?

"Dad, how good was Joe Thornton?"

"He scored 20 goals 11 times."

"Ah, well, that's pretty good, but nothing special."

Dad omitted that Thornton was arguably the greatest playmaker of his generation, and consequently gave a false impression of his overall impact. Thornton's an HoFer, but to hear Dad, the kid wouldn't think he was appreciably better than Ed Olczyk.


Last edited by Warm Cookies: 03-10-2014 at 06:17 PM.
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Old
03-10-2014, 06:26 PM
  #227
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I get RRPs point. It would be the same for Adam Oates. Guy was never a scorer outside one ridiculous year.

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03-10-2014, 06:31 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Pens1566 View Post
I get RRPs point. It would be the same for Adam Oates. Guy was never a scorer outside one ridiculous year.
Thanks man. To illustrate:

Adam Oates, 5-time 20 goal scorer.
Chris Kunitz, 6-time 20 goal scorer.

According to this misrepresentative description, Kunitz > Oates offensively.


Last edited by Warm Cookies: 03-10-2014 at 06:42 PM.
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03-10-2014, 06:42 PM
  #229
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You may have a point RRP if Bennett had up great assist totals, which he hasn't.

Comparing him to JT or Oates is a joke. As is saying that he's good enough in every other aspect of his game that it's ok he doesn't score.

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03-10-2014, 06:59 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Ragamuffin Gunner View Post
You may have a point RRP if Bennett had up great assist totals, which he hasn't.

Comparing him to JT or Oates is a joke. As is saying that he's good enough in every other aspect of his game that it's ok he doesn't score.
He's been chained to the likes of Glass and Adams. The eye test tells me he creates a couple good scoring chances every game. The points are going to come if he can ever get healthy.

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03-10-2014, 07:04 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by Sideline View Post
He's been chained to the likes of Glass and Adams. The eye test tells me he creates a couple good scoring chances every game. The points are going to come if he can ever get healthy.
The eye test is very kind to him, but if the article's author had even mentioned Bennett's assist totals (which are better but hardly anything to write home about), it would at least show he was trying to give an earnest evaluation.

Citing goals just seems dishonest. I think the author came up with the storyline before he looked at the data, then brought out the old shoehorn to make everything fit the way he liked it.

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03-10-2014, 07:37 PM
  #232
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Nobody is hating on Bennett, but simply pointing out the fact that he hasn't done much of anything yet. Yes, there are factors involved, but we're all still waiting for him to make a legit impact. We're all extremely high on him, and hope he succeeds, but I think it's prudent to temper the expectations with regard to the kid. People assuming, or expecting him to be the savior when it comes to the make up of our dismal scoring depth isn't really fair. Personally, I don't think he's the answer to Sid's winger situation. I'd rather him play with Geno as a third wheel, or add depth on the 3rd line. I see a very good hockey player, but I don't see a star, scoring line player that a lot of others do. Just my opinion, and I apologize if it's offensive to anyone.

I agree he needs to have a longer look in a legit scoring role, but right now, let's cool it. He's got the "Bylsma factor" working against him, and he needs to prove he can finally get, and remain healthy for an extended period of time. I want him to succeed, but I'm not exactly enthusiastic about putting all of my eggs in one basket and thinking this guy's gonna be Shero's savior when it comes to fixing the scoring depth. I think he can be a very effective player, but I don't think he's the answer.

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03-10-2014, 07:46 PM
  #233
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Bennett is never going to be a good goal-scorer until he makes big improvements on his release. His shot velocity isn't a problem but his release is very sub-par, the big reason why he's never scored goals at a decent clip at any advanced level (13 goals in 47 GP NCAA, 7 in 39 AHL GP and 4 in 38 NHL GP). Hell, it's a big reason he doesn't generate many shots on goal either.

Quickening his release is going to be the difference in him being a solid player to a very good one.

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03-10-2014, 07:49 PM
  #234
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I have seen enough from Bennett to believe that the hype around him is warranted. That goal he scored against the Isles in the playoffs was a goal scorers goal. I have watched enough of him in WBS to know he has the ability to find gaps in coverage and the ability to unleash shots. He has made some passes here that were awesome, but the guys receiving them didn't know what to do with them. My big concern surrounding him has nothing to do with his ability, but how his wrist injuries impact his short term, and long term game. Are these reoccurring problems? Are they able to be rectified? Will he be able to get the strength in his wrists to the level where he has a hard enough shot to beat NHL goaltenders when he has the chance? That's something we as fans will never know because we aren't his doctors.

I do agree with a portion of RRP's assessment...yeah, Thornton has scored 20 goals a season, but fact is, he's not a goal scorer. Hemsky is the same way. He's just not a goal scorer. Bennett is of a similar ilk, and if one were to point at a guy like Thornton or Hemsky's goal scoring totals or even ability, they would be doing both players an injustice seeing as how the cream to their game is the ability to dish the puck.

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03-10-2014, 07:51 PM
  #235
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sivek View Post
Bennett is never going to be a good goal-scorer until he makes big improvements on his release. His shot velocity isn't a problem but his release is very sub-par, the big reason why he's never scored goals at a decent clip at any advanced level (13 goals in 47 GP NCAA, 7 in 39 AHL GP and 4 in 38 NHL GP). Hell, it's a big reason he doesn't generate many shots on goal either.

Quickening his release is going to be the difference in him being a solid player to a very good one.
Complete disagree about his release. He would unleash pucks on the left side in WBS. And as I just said, that goal he scored against the Isles in the playoffs, if that is any indication of his ability, he will have no problem beating NHL goaltenders.

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03-10-2014, 07:57 PM
  #236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sivek View Post
Bennett is never going to be a good goal-scorer until he makes big improvements on his release. His shot velocity isn't a problem but his release is very sub-par, the big reason why he's never scored goals at a decent clip at any advanced level (13 goals in 47 GP NCAA, 7 in 39 AHL GP and 4 in 38 NHL GP). Hell, it's a big reason he doesn't generate many shots on goal either.

Quickening his release is going to be the difference in him being a solid player to a very good one.
Man, that's not a lot of hockey since 2010.

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03-10-2014, 08:00 PM
  #237
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And that's about 90% of the problem with Bennett, and that is a huge cause for concern in my eyes. People can say that these injuries are isolated incidents, but some guys are just prone to injuries...whether those injuries are linked or not. As talented as the kid is, he's no good to us if he's constantly hurt, and he has been.

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03-10-2014, 08:04 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
Complete disagree about his release. He would unleash pucks on the left side in WBS. And as I just said, that goal he scored against the Isles in the playoffs, if that is any indication of his ability, he will have no problem beating NHL goaltenders.
We'll just have to agree to disagree on this point. I think his load-up is slow and another thing in particular, he's poor at getting off shots on passes that aren't on the money, like he has difficulty in taking a puck from his skates or a pass that's 6-8 inches too far one way or the other and getting them off.

If my life depended on it, I'd say he'll end up closer to a 15-18 goal guy than 25-28 one. Either way, he's going to end up very assist heavy production-wise.


Last edited by Sivek: 03-10-2014 at 08:14 PM.
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03-10-2014, 08:47 PM
  #239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTG View Post
And that's about 90% of the problem with Bennett, and that is a huge cause for concern in my eyes. People can say that these injuries are isolated incidents, but some guys are just prone to injuries...whether those injuries are linked or not. As talented as the kid is, he's no good to us if he's constantly hurt, and he has been.
Careful with that sort of discussion. Implying that sort of thing is grounds for being drawn and quartered to some people around here.

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03-11-2014, 03:15 AM
  #240
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I can't sift through this entire thread...

But things that concern me about this team, drafting wise are:
  • Shero & Scouts putting too much emphasis on drafting defensemen.
  • The fact that a lot of Pens are College bound players, while education is important, I'm not entirely convinced that is the best developmental path.
  • The lack of European scouting and drafting.
  • Playing it overly safe, instead of even trying to take a Euro that could be a good pick, they take the good ol' North American that is College bound!
  • Sometimes, not really taking TPA. Sometimes, I am not a fan of that approach, but other times, I am.

The biggest reason we have the same gripes every year is because this team can't seem to draft well overall. A lot of risky forward picks with a few solid ones sprinkled in and a great group of young defensemen and a slightly decent group of young goaltenders.

That's the pens prospect pool.

Team's biggest need since 2005-06: Wingers.

Since 2005, only one player has emerged as a drafted winger.

Beau Bennett and he's a guy that we all have high hopes for but he might not work out as well, also damn this kid is unlucky with freak injuries, hopefully he can get past that. Mark Eaton and Martin Straka are worried in that regard. Workout machines and orbital bones be damned.

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03-11-2014, 02:29 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Shady, do you understand why, if someone were describing Thornton's impact, it would be a misrepresentation to only say that he was an 11-time 20 goal scorer?

"Dad, how good was Joe Thornton?"

"He scored 20 goals 11 times."

"Ah, well, that's pretty good, but nothing special."

Dad omitted that Thornton was arguably the greatest playmaker of his generation, and consequently gave a false impression of his overall impact. Thornton's an HoFer, but to hear Dad, the kid wouldn't think he was appreciably better than Ed Olczyk.
For sure. I only got in this conversation because you made an extreme comparison that was wrong. That said, I don't think judging Thornton or Bennett or Hemsky, etc primarily by goal scoring makes much sense. So yeah, we are in agreement.

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03-11-2014, 02:36 PM
  #242
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Originally Posted by Sivek View Post
We'll just have to agree to disagree on this point. I think his load-up is slow and another thing in particular, he's poor at getting off shots on passes that aren't on the money, like he has difficulty in taking a puck from his skates or a pass that's 6-8 inches too far one way or the other and getting them off.

If my life depended on it, I'd say he'll end up closer to a 15-18 goal guy than 25-28 one. Either way, he's going to end up very assist heavy production-wise.
15-20 goals is the right range. If you assume he's an assist machine like Thornton (but not nearly as good) and you take Thornton's goals to points ratio and apply it to Bennett, that's right in the range of what we can expect.

60-70 points: 15-20 goals and 45-50 assists.

That looks about right if he pans out the way we hope.

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03-11-2014, 03:03 PM
  #243
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bennett is not a stud but can be a very good complementary player for Geno and Neal. Maybe his luck will change and he stays reasonably healthy. I have no issue with the early picks but taking so many 5-10 and 5-11 smaller wingers is just not prudent. The Pens need size on the wings and yes a trade can help the roster, but clearly shero needs to take some big guys who may develop

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03-11-2014, 04:50 PM
  #244
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Even if you want to include Staal and Bennett as positives for Shero's drafting, that's 2 forwards since he took over. Whether that's due to trading away picks, focusing on defensemen, or whatever. The bottom line is, that's a pretty horrible track record for drafting forwards.

It's not like there's a bunch of sure fire top six forwards in the pipeline, either. So it's not like there's a Drouin or even a Connolly just around the corner to bolster that total.

As someone else mentioned, what compounds the problem is it's not even like Shero's been able to flip all those defense prospects for forward help.

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03-11-2014, 07:23 PM
  #245
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTG View Post
And that's about 90% of the problem with Bennett, and that is a huge cause for concern in my eyes. People can say that these injuries are isolated incidents, but some guys are just prone to injuries...whether those injuries are linked or not. As talented as the kid is, he's no good to us if he's constantly hurt, and he has been.
Correlation doesn't always infer causation. He's not injury prone. He's unlucky. If he gets another 2 or 3 major injuries here in relatively quick fashion, I'll start agreeing with you. This isn't to say the injuries aren't a problem in his development.

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03-11-2014, 10:21 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by MrBurgundy View Post
Correlation doesn't always infer causation. He's not injury prone. He's unlucky. If he gets another 2 or 3 major injuries here in relatively quick fashion, I'll start agreeing with you. This isn't to say the injuries aren't a problem in his development.
6 or a half dozen...

He hasn't had a season since the BCHL where he wasn't injured.

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03-11-2014, 10:27 PM
  #247
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
6 or a half dozen...

He hasn't had a season since the BCHL where he wasn't injured.
Last season he wasn't. At least not anything that I can find. If it was it was minor, and what guys don't have minor injuries most seasons?

It's not the same, and it's intellectually dishonest to think so.

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03-11-2014, 10:34 PM
  #248
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Bennett missed at least 5 games in a row at some point last season in the AHL with the very informative "lower-body injury". Don't remember the exact amount of games he missed overall in the AHL last season in his seperate stints in WBS.

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03-11-2014, 10:40 PM
  #249
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Bennett missed at least 5 games in a row at some point last season in the AHL with the very informative "lower-body injury". Don't remember the exact amount of games he missed overall in the AHL last season in his seperate stints in WBS.
That's fine. Getting dinged up and missing a handful of games is nothing new to this roster. It happens to most of our stars every single season, and mostly all NHL players.

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03-12-2014, 12:31 AM
  #250
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Jokes or not with some, I think people are pushing it with the Beau is weak and injury prone crap. But it is concerning that he is the only winger prospect that could turn out to be a solid top 6 option.

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