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Who's The Most Underrated Coach In NHL History?

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Old
06-22-2013, 08:22 AM
  #1
ted1971
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Who's The Most Underrated Coach In NHL History?

I'm going to say it's Fred Shero. Still not in the HHOF after winning 2 Stanley Cups and the Flyers dominated the Soviet Red Army Team to the point that they left the Ice. In 10 seasons ( only coached 20 games in 80-81 before re-signing), He won 4 Division Championships, won 2 Stanley Cups, lost in the finals 2 other times and only failed to reach the Semi-Finals only Once in 8 playoff appearances.

Regular Season Record:
390 - 225 - 119

Playoff Record:
62-47

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06-22-2013, 08:52 AM
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Archangel
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once I saw your avatar I see why you went Shero. Shero is not underrated and that is not what is keeping him out of the hall of fame. There are lots of coaches with his won lose record not in. Pat Burns jumps to mind right away and he should be in before Shero. All because he is not in the hall of fame does not mean he is underrated. For me Curt Fraser and Craig Hartsburg are underrated and no not get the respect they deserve

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06-22-2013, 09:12 AM
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Francis Vernal
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Al MacNeil? (wins Cup in rookie coaching season; gets fired)

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06-22-2013, 09:31 AM
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Mayor Bee
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A couple years ago, I doodled out the mathematical expectations for each team in NHL history (based on the Bill James formula for baseball managers). This is through the end of the 2011-12 season.

The top ten in terms of average points above expectations, for those who have coached 500+ NHL games, are:
1) Scotty Bowman
2) Fred Shero
3) Glen Sather
4) Lester Patrick
5) Peter Laviolette
6) Tommy Ivan
7) Darryl Sutter
8) Ken Hitchcock
9) Jacques Lemaire
10) Bob Hartley

Now, this is regular season only and doesn't take postseason into account. I'll leave the rest up to you guys.

(I originally started this to analyze the question of whether Pat Burns was a HHOFer. He fell somewhere between Andy Murray and Bryan Murray.)

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06-22-2013, 09:49 AM
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Canadiens1958
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Jimmy Skinner

Overlooked is Jimmy Skinner:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/coaches/skinnji99c.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Skinner

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06-22-2013, 10:24 AM
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LeBlondeDemon10
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06-22-2013, 10:32 AM
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Dennis Bonvie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
A couple years ago, I doodled out the mathematical expectations for each team in NHL history (based on the Bill James formula for baseball managers). This is through the end of the 2011-12 season.

The top ten in terms of average points above expectations, for those who have coached 500+ NHL games, are:
1) Scotty Bowman
2) Fred Shero
3) Glen Sather
4) Lester Patrick
5) Peter Laviolette
6) Tommy Ivan
7) Darryl Sutter
8) Ken Hitchcock
9) Jacques Lemaire
10) Bob Hartley

Now, this is regular season only and doesn't take postseason into account. I'll leave the rest up to you guys.

(I originally started this to analyze the question of whether Pat Burns was a HHOFer. He fell somewhere between Andy Murray and Bryan Murray.)
So it doesn't work, right?

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06-22-2013, 01:12 PM
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Pat Burns

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06-22-2013, 03:33 PM
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Evincar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrcrazycanuck View Post
once I saw your avatar I see why you went Shero. Shero is not underrated and that is not what is keeping him out of the hall of fame. There are lots of coaches with his won lose record not in. Pat Burns jumps to mind right away and he should be in before Shero. All because he is not in the hall of fame does not mean he is underrated. For me Curt Fraser and Craig Hartsburg are underrated and no not get the respect they deserve
Why should Burns be in before Shero? Shero was the first coach to use a full-time assistant coach. The first coach to study film and have a morning skate. Shero was an innovator and he made a bigger impact on the game of hockey than Burns did.

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06-22-2013, 03:43 PM
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jkrx
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
First guys that came to mind was Jimmy Skinner, Leo Dandurand and Lalonde.

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06-22-2013, 03:49 PM
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agentblack
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This is tough to answer unless you really Really know Hockey history because while yes winning a cup should put you into the conversation there are many coaches that did very well and got lesser talented squads to overachieve without even getting to the show. I mean this would be a tough question to answer today

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06-22-2013, 04:11 PM
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BrimStone64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ted1971 View Post
I'm going to say it's Fred Shero. Still not in the HHOF after winning 2 Stanley Cups and the Flyers dominated the Soviet Red Army Team to the point that they left the Ice. In 10 seasons ( only coached 20 games in 80-81 before re-signing), He won 4 Division Championships, won 2 Stanley Cups, lost in the finals 2 other times and only failed to reach the Semi-Finals only Once in 8 playoff appearances.

Regular Season Record:
390 - 225 - 119

Playoff Record:
62-47
You picked a good one....because he took a not very talented Rangers team to the Finals. So, it wasn't the goons why Phily did all their winning

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06-22-2013, 11:28 PM
  #13
Mayor Bee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Bonvie View Post
So it doesn't work, right?
Based on what?

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06-23-2013, 12:41 AM
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reckoning
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
A couple years ago, I doodled out the mathematical expectations for each team in NHL history (based on the Bill James formula for baseball managers). This is through the end of the 2011-12 season.

The top ten in terms of average points above expectations, for those who have coached 500+ NHL games, are:
1) Scotty Bowman
2) Fred Shero
3) Glen Sather
4) Lester Patrick
5) Peter Laviolette
6) Tommy Ivan
7) Darryl Sutter
8) Ken Hitchcock
9) Jacques Lemaire
10) Bob Hartley
Would it be possible to get an outline of what the formula is?

Bill James has come up with a lot of interesting stuff over the years. Whenever I see one of his articles with a new statistical innovation, I always wonder if it can be applied to hockey. Sometimes it can, sometimes it can't.

The top 9 on the above list is justifiable, but Hartley ay #10 is puzzling. Unless he was so underrated that I'm underrating him.

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06-23-2013, 02:12 AM
  #15
Killion
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Pete Green - Ottawa
Cecil Hart - Montreal
Cooney Weiland - Boston
Tom Johnson - Boston

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06-23-2013, 09:26 AM
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06-23-2013, 09:44 AM
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06-23-2013, 09:45 AM
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Dennis Bonvie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Based on what?
Peter Laviolette and Glen Sather in Top 5.

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06-23-2013, 10:16 AM
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... How is Shero underrated, unless you're a victimized Flyers fan?!?!? Shero is perceived as a Top-15 coach of all time... And most likely Top-10. As long as he's not considered Top-3, I don't have any problem with him being anywhere from 4th to, say, 12th.

Pat Burns and Jacques Demers are underrated. I think Billy Reay is somewhat underrated as well. Pete Green too.

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06-23-2013, 10:28 AM
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Mayor Bee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckoning View Post
Would it be possible to get an outline of what the formula is?

Bill James has come up with a lot of interesting stuff over the years. Whenever I see one of his articles with a new statistical innovation, I always wonder if it can be applied to hockey. Sometimes it can, sometimes it can't.

The top 9 on the above list is justifiable, but Hartley ay #10 is puzzling. Unless he was so underrated that I'm underrating him.
The formula I tinkered around with and used is:

[(Points 3 years ago + points 2 years ago + [points last year * 4] + [number of games this year * 2])

Divided by

(# of games 3 years ago + # of games 2 years ago + [number of games last year * 4] + [number of games this year * 2])]

Times number of games this year


This reflects both most recent past performance, with a heavy weight on the most recent season, as well as the tendency to gravitate back toward .500. The only adjustments I had to make were to account for the OT point, the lockout years, and the ever-changing number of games in the earlier days of the league.

For expansion teams, the first three years are slotted at a .350 point percentage for the first two years and .450 for the third year. This based on the historical performance of expansion teams. It does, however, do heavy damage to the early expansion coaches. George Kingston (San Jose 1991-92 and 1992-93) shows up as an overall -51.8 points against expectations, and it understates Kevin Constantine in 1993-94 as being only +6.4 in that season. The early years of Minnesota give Jacques Lemaire a +47.4 in the first three years. Quebec in 1992-93 (Pierre Page), however, is +45.27 for that season alone, based on their poor performance the previous three years.

For coaches fired or hired mid-season, the total performance is further pared down to a per-game average, then multiplied by the number of games they coached. Columbus in 2011-12, for example, fired Scott Arniel after 41 games and replaced him with Todd Richards. Arniel (11-25-5) shows up as -15.44, Richards (18-21-2) as -4.44.

To specifically reference Bob Hartley, I think it reflects an inherent flaw in the system. A coach who is more of a journeyman and takes on rebuilding projects will tend to vastly exceed mathematical expectations. Someone who stays in one place for longer will eventually start to struggle against his own raised expectations, and thus ever-increasing numbers will be closer to expectations. I will argue that this reflects real life, in that people who have success can make themselves obsolete by performing at a high level for long enough.

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06-23-2013, 10:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Bonvie View Post
Peter Laviolette and Glen Sather in Top 5.
I haven't updated Laviolette through 2012-13 yet, which undoubtedly will hurt him.

Sather is based on the expansion team formula outlined in the post directly above this. The first three years in Edmonton have him with a net +69.6, with additional positive numbers (albeit lower) across the ensuing four seasons. The three after that were all net negative, but not to any real extent. That was the end of his coaching career except for the half-year replacing Ted Green, so he avoided the tendency of a successful coach to stay and make himself obsolete.

It's no different than the player who retires at the peak of his career. He skips the decline phase, which would crush his averages and muddy the picture slightly.

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06-25-2013, 07:47 PM
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06-26-2013, 04:02 AM
  #23
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Most under-rated coach (by a mile) is Mike Keenan.

The guy should be in the HHOF, and had an utterly dominant decade of coaching from 1984-94 and a ton of success at lower levels before that. Was miles ahead of his time and completely revolutionized the way NHL games were coached, especially in terms of shortening shift length.

After the 1995 lockout the game passed him by, his ego and confrontational attitude got the best of him, and he turned into a parody of himself. And now that's all anyone seems to remember.

But until 1994, he was just unreal. Won in the NHL. Won in the AHL. Won in juniors. Won in college. Won in international play. Won with old teams. Won with young teams. Won with crap teams. Won with stacked teams. Won with offensive teams, won with defensive teams. All the guy did was win.

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06-26-2013, 06:45 AM
  #24
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06-26-2013, 10:19 AM
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Mike Keenan for me as well. Perhaps not the easiest guy to play for but the guy seemed to have decent success wherever he went to.

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