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Old
07-08-2013, 09:06 AM
  #1
ryno23
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Advanced Stats

Just looking for some feedback on these advance stats that are creeping into hockey. Disclaimer I am old school 40 years old and don't get caught up in advance stats and rely more on watching games and not looking at a piece of paper to evaluate a player.

Now my question is how can these stats work if there are so many variables in play during a hockey game and each player is not measured against the same variables or situations during a game.

Teams don't play each team equally so if you played against a team such as Detroit who is a puck possession team vs NJ who plays a more conservation trap so to speak how can you measure that equally?

How do you measure a players numbers if he was playing hurt or if it was back to back games. How do you factor match ups into the stats. What happens if one of those match ups changes in the middle of a game or a guy misses a game say Patrice Bergeron missing half a period due to a fight would impact how Bozak's faceoff numbers are and how some of the stats are calculated.

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07-08-2013, 09:10 AM
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CreeksideStrangler
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Ummm yes.

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07-08-2013, 09:12 AM
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sangreale
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For a long time now Detroit has been using a stat where they gather numbers on what happens with the play after an initial player makes a pass. Scotty saw it as a revelation in terms of how effective that player was being in his game. After a while they didn't even bother gathering the numbers for Lidstrom. lol

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07-08-2013, 09:23 AM
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Of course the type of team you play on will affect your advanced stats but also your regular stats. For example, some team may not be an offensive juggernaut so the player who has played their whole career on that team may not have the best stats.

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07-08-2013, 09:27 AM
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CreeksideStrangler
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Corsi stats are a better indicator of skill and effectiveness

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07-08-2013, 09:35 AM
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caribouPINE
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They can help sure, but with anything, there are limitations and pitfalls. And, like anything, they shouldn't be taken as a whole just part of the puzzle. Another piece.

If you follow James Mirtle though you would think they are essential to evaluating all trades, players, etc. In fact, I think Mirtle should go follow baseball as he's clearly a stathead and has little use for watching the game, rather just look at bar charts and draw Venn diagrams.

And yes, I know James reads this site. Hi James. Shouldn't you be reading Bill James' book on Win Shares to see how you can extrapolate that into the hockey world?

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07-08-2013, 09:46 AM
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anderson3133
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I think advanced stats are going to have their place in hockey but at this time there are still quite a few complications with them, when comparing them to models used in a sport like baseball.

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07-08-2013, 09:51 AM
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Lightsol
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All these "new" stats, I wonder if hockey is becoming more like baseball, what with the recent insane argument that Miguel Cabrera shouldn't win MVP despite winning the Triple Crown (one of the hardest achievements in baseball) simply because Mike Trout had better Sabremetrics...

Please tell me we're not going to have people pulling out insanely irrelevant stats to prove their points. You know what they say about three types of lies and all that....

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07-08-2013, 09:52 AM
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SeenSchenn2
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Way too many people see them as the be-all and end-all. I guess they're somewhat useful, but there are so many flaws.

I prefer the good ole eyeballs.

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07-08-2013, 09:53 AM
  #10
Loosie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Just looking for some feedback on these advance stats that are creeping into hockey. Disclaimer I am old school 40 years old and don't get caught up in advance stats and rely more on watching games and not looking at a piece of paper to evaluate a player.

Now my question is how can these stats work if there are so many variables in play during a hockey game and each player is not measured against the same variables or situations during a game.

Teams don't play each team equally so if you played against a team such as Detroit who is a puck possession team vs NJ who plays a more conservation trap so to speak how can you measure that equally?

How do you measure a players numbers if he was playing hurt or if it was back to back games. How do you factor match ups into the stats. What happens if one of those match ups changes in the middle of a game or a guy misses a game say Patrice Bergeron missing half a period due to a fight would impact how Bozak's faceoff numbers are and how some of the stats are calculated.
Yeah I'm with you there, watch the games see how they play rather than read a paper with numbers to see how people played.

Looking at stats only are how people either under or over value players. (Usually under value)

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07-08-2013, 10:22 AM
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mydnyte
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you can take a bunch of 'advanced stats', and any decent mathematician can prove and disprove the exact same statement a dozen different ways when you add any variables.

in the end the only stats that matter, are Wins and Losses.

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07-08-2013, 10:25 AM
  #12
LeafDangler
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Hockey is about 10 years behind other sports when it comes to statistical analysis. Make no mistake though, they're coming. The majority of NHL teams employ them. They provide a ton of useful info but as with anything context is critical.

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07-08-2013, 10:25 AM
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Grant
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I find them useful to help support thoughts I get from watching games and to get a bit of an idea of a player I am unable to watch regularly. I won't ever use advanced stats on their own, as you said, to many variables.

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07-08-2013, 10:26 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Just looking for some feedback on these advance stats that are creeping into hockey. Disclaimer I am old school 40 years old and don't get caught up in advance stats and rely more on watching games and not looking at a piece of paper to evaluate a player.

Now my question is how can these stats work if there are so many variables in play during a hockey game and each player is not measured against the same variables or situations during a game.

Teams don't play each team equally so if you played against a team such as Detroit who is a puck possession team vs NJ who plays a more conservation trap so to speak how can you measure that equally?

How do you measure a players numbers if he was playing hurt or if it was back to back games. How do you factor match ups into the stats. What happens if one of those match ups changes in the middle of a game or a guy misses a game say Patrice Bergeron missing half a period due to a fight would impact how Bozak's faceoff numbers are and how some of the stats are calculated.
These stats don't answer questions so why ya askin?

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07-08-2013, 10:26 AM
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mydnyte
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Originally Posted by anderson3133 View Post
I think advanced stats are going to have their place in hockey but at this time there are still quite a few complications with them, when comparing them to models used in a sport like baseball.
they dont work there either ...player B always strikes out on a curveball ...player B has never hit a home run on a curveball ...next at bat player B hits a home run on a curveball.

nothing in sports is can be determined as an absolute, stats help, but, often-time, they also end up costing you the game.

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07-08-2013, 10:27 AM
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achtungbaby
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I find that most people who have something against advanced stats are in one of two camps. A: They don't understand them and haven't taken the time to learn about it. B: They don't like the way it makes it their favourite players look.

Like them or not, they're here to stay as more and more teams are beginning to understand how important they can be if used with good old fashioned scouting.

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07-08-2013, 10:30 AM
  #17
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Originally Posted by mydnyte View Post
you can take a bunch of 'advanced stats', and any decent mathematician can prove and disprove the exact same statement a dozen different ways when you add any variables.

in the end the only stats that matter, are Wins and Losses.
Figures don't lie but liars figure.

Iposted against Mirtle's stats on here and he didn't respond after just posting and promoting his stats to another poster.

He didn't like my thoughts on them i guess.

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07-08-2013, 10:33 AM
  #18
mydnyte
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Originally Posted by achtungbaby View Post
I find that most people who have something against advanced stats are in one of two camps. A: They don't understand them and haven't taken the time to learn about it. B: They don't like the way it makes it their favourite players look.

Like them or not, they're here to stay as more and more teams are beginning to understand how important they can be if used with good old fashioned scouting.
advanced stats are interesting, and can be applied in anything, but, i wouldnt risk my career by determining my lineup on advanced stats vs, even my gut feeling. (i.e. lineup change)
...they are good for commentators, to provide interesting tidbits ...they are good for scouts.

the thing about stats, is they change every time any player does anything.

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07-08-2013, 10:34 AM
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LeafDangler
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Originally Posted by mydnyte View Post
they dont work there either ...player B always strikes out on a curveball ...player B has never hit a home run on a curveball ...next at bat player B hits a home run on a curveball.

nothing in sports is can be determined as an absolute, stats help, but, often-time, they also end up costing you the game.
They don't work there either? Every single MLB team employs advanced stats.

Just because something only paints part of the picture doesn't mean you disregard it completely. Knowledge from every angle is a GMs best weapon.

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07-08-2013, 10:36 AM
  #20
AlienWorkShop
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I am contemptuous of both those who are consider stats like CORSI or Fenwick the end-all-be-all of player evaluations and those who dismiss them entirely as statistical gobbledy-goop. (Okay, I detest the latter far more given my personal penchant for statistical analysis)

The current crop of 'advanced' stats is interesting and I don't see an issue with a sports journalist tossing in a PDO or CORSI reference when discussing a team or player. If you don't like that, then why is posting a defenceman's heavily second-assist assisted assist (woah) totals in an article not questioned? If you don't like a stat, it's easy to ignore it.

However, and people have given him some unwarranted stick for this quote, I think Brian Burke's quote, “Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunk: Useful for support but not for illumination,” is pretty spot on when it comes to hockey stats so far. Any hockey stat I've read about has way too much year-to-year variance (see teams maintaining a 'lucky' PDO for entire seasons) to be relied on without a doubt. There's some interesting work on all-in-one player measurements, but when they've got guys like Tyler Kennedy, who just take a ton of low-quality shots, ranked in the top-10 in the NHL, they've still got some work to do.

HOWEVER, as this Grantland piece details: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...cal-revolution, as SportVU cameras are inevitably installed in NHL arenas and are open to public consumption, there could be a legitimate statistical revolution over the next 5-10 years in hockey. Check out the embedded YouTube clips in the article to get a glimpse of what the Raptors are using right now. Pretty neat stuff.

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07-08-2013, 10:37 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by achtungbaby View Post
I find that most people who have something against advanced stats are in one of two camps. A: They don't understand them and haven't taken the time to learn about it. B: They don't like the way it makes it their favourite players look.

Like them or not, they're here to stay as more and more teams are beginning to understand how important they can be if used with good old fashioned scouting.
I find advanced stats were predicting who would win games and were wrong mostly.

The leafs getting out shot so much shouldn't have won this game because of quality of competition.They should have lost because of lack of possession time etc, and they still won.

The leafs were not supposed to make the playoffs last year if you listened to these stats. They wiill not dictate the outcome of the game but the outcome of the game will dictate the stats.

These stats are a coaching tool not a playing tool.

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07-08-2013, 10:38 AM
  #22
mydnyte
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Originally Posted by leafspring View Post
Figures don't lie but liars figure.

Iposted against Mirtle's stats on here and he didn't respond after just posting and promoting his stats to another poster.

He didn't like my thoughts on them i guess.
not sure which stats you are referring to, but, i'll guess they were the ones used to try to bash the Clarkson signing?

...then i would say, Ryan's stats indicate he is the better player, but, once the 2 players lineup vs one another, Clarkson 'intimidates' (physically/verbally or both) Ryan and goes on to outscore him in the game and the Leafs win... which player has more value at that point based on those stats?

is this the type of argument against stats you would agree with?

when my mother had cancer, stats said she should be dead in 3 months ...she lived 2 more years. Stats are worthless most of the time

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07-08-2013, 10:38 AM
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Vexxed14
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Stats are always useful; stats that take many factors into account are even better.

The problem is that individuals read statistics and believe to be experts on interpretation.

Properly interpreting statistics are never an exact science and professionals spend years educating themselves to get a grip on all the factors.

Frankly, I doubt there are many posters here, if at all, that can claim to be statistical analysts as it relates to hockey.

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07-08-2013, 10:48 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by mydnyte View Post
not sure which stats you are referring to, but, i'll guess they were the ones used to try to bash the Clarkson signing?

...then i would say, Ryan's stats indicate he is the better player, but, once the 2 players lineup vs one another, Clarkson 'intimidates' (physically/verbally or both) Ryan and goes on to outscore him in the game and the Leafs win... which player has more value at that point based on those stats?

is this the type of argument against stats you would agree with?

when my mother had cancer, stats said she should be dead in 3 months ...she lived 2 more years. Stats are worthless most of the time
It was before the play-offs when we were being badly outshot predicting all doom/gloom because of being statistical losers lol. We kept winning,kept getting out shot,made the play-offs,took Boston to 7 games.

Stats don't know who the coach is,they don't know the style you play,they don't know who is injured,or hung over (seguin)lol. These stats are overboard.

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07-08-2013, 10:54 AM
  #25
Duffman955
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Originally Posted by mydnyte View Post
you can take a bunch of 'advanced stats', and any decent mathematician can prove and disprove the exact same statement a dozen different ways when you add any variables.

in the end the only stats that matter, are Wins and Losses.
My thoughts exactly.

Advanced stats suck, and don't have much bearing on who wins games.

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