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Old
07-09-2013, 01:07 PM
  #101
bruyns
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Originally Posted by wulfio View Post
if the corsi proponents are going to outright mock the idea of intangibles, stating only corsi matters. then why is it wrong for people who actually know a bit about the game, and probably played some puck, to dismiss these kids who have never played before, and probably watched moneyball one too many times?

there are so many variables in the game that can't be quantified. A coaches system for instance. The game of hockey is a game of momentum, and swings, more than any other sport, except for basketball possibly. Hockey is also a game of pure emotion, which is something nobody can quantify. It's the reason why someone can go on a 15 game goal streak, or post up a .960 save% in the home stretch of the season to get his team in the playoffs. Or why a little used player, benched for most of overtime, happens to score a game winning goal in double overtime in game 7 to get his team in to the finals. Or why some players, show very little promise during the regular season. But all of a sudden, in playoffs, they become dominant players that carry their teams to much success. The opposite is also true, with some players excelling during the regular season, but disappearing during the playoffs.

I feel as though the stats pundits have never played the game, and don't understand the joy and emotion of it, highs and lows, the swings, and most importantly, situational hockey. Among the different scenarios a player can find himself in, the other aspect to it, is that in hockey, it's really a team sport. You rely on the other 5 guys on the ice at the time. And what you do depends on the who the 6 guys are you're facing, in what circumstance you're facing them in, and what part of the emotional roller coaster you're on. Baseball, and football, you have cogs in a machine, everyone has a job to do, and they do it individually, when everyone does their individual job properly, it leads to team success. Statistics is very applicable in these sports. Basketball, is sort of a mix between ultra individualistic, and team just because of the super star effect. And hockey, is the purest sense of team. Yes there's role players in hockey, but it's a total game of flow, and those 6 guys on the ice at one time, they become one unit. Not individual parts. Every statistic in hockey has everything to do with the guys on the ice with them. You know that old hockey cliche? Wouldn't have been able to do it without my linemates? It's not just lip service. Hockey players have team cliche's down to a science because it's all true.

I believe corsi says Phaneuf is a good player. He's really not. You only have to evaluate him with your eyes to know his first pass is average, he's not a very nice skater, he handles the puck like it's a grenade. His vision is also very uninspired, you see him trying to make passes like gardiner, and all you can do is roll your eyes. And he lacks the agility and quickness to keep up with forwards in our own end. He is learning to cope by being a statue and watching the play buzz around him so he doesn't leave the net wide open. But he's not suited for his role. I'm not saying this to start a phaneuf debate. I'm saying this because this is legitimately what's wrong with phaneuf. And 11th in voting or not, you can't be a cup contender when your #1 D has those deficiencies. And I'm pretty sure I recall people using corsi to state otherwise.

The bottom line is, corsi can be interesting to look at. But the majority of people present it as hockey dogma. And all that does, is show your lack of understanding.
Justin Bourne has probably played hockey at a higher level than you have and he sees the value of these stats. I'm sure there are plenty of people that have played high level hockey and don't think stats are useless. I might be mistaken, but you seem to think that everyone who has played high level hockey finds stats worthless and only young nerdy kids think they are helpful. This is a foolish position to hold IMO.

I also have yet to come across anyone who is "stating only corsi matters" like you claim in your 1st paragraph so why do you think people who use stats to support what they see dismiss everything else like intangibles?

Can you not agree that even though watching a player remains the optimal way to evaluate there are alternative ways to judge a player?

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07-09-2013, 01:13 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by bruyns View Post
Justin Bourne has probably played hockey at a higher level than you have and he sees the value of these stats. I'm sure there are plenty of people that have played high level hockey and don't think stats are useless. I might be mistaken, but you seem to think that everyone who has played high level hockey finds stats worthless and only young nerdy kids think they are helpful. This is a foolish position to hold IMO.

I also have yet to come across anyone who is "stating only corsi matters" like you claim in your 1st paragraph so why do you think people who use stats to support what they see dismiss everything else like intangibles?

Can you not agree that even though watching a player remains the optimal way to evaluate there are alternative ways to judge a player?
I guess you didn't actually read what I wrote. Please quote me where I said it was useless. And I don't care if someone who played more hockey than I did thinks the stats are brilliant; I know plenty of meat heads who made it farther than I did. Objective observation understands that stats are HIGHLY reflective of who you're on the ice with, and against, in what situation, in what point of the game emotionally, if you're injured, and the list of variables goes ON AND ON. Until you develop a metric for the infinite possibilities of life and intangible facets of the human condition, I say take it with a grain of salt.


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07-09-2013, 01:17 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by wulfio View Post
I guess you didn't actually read what I wrote. Please quote me where I said it was useless.
I did read it and I prefaced that with "I might be mistaken"

That was just the vibe I got from your post, advanced stats are meritless and should be disregarded because what I personally see with my eyes is more correct than what numbers could tell me.

If I got the wrong read off of you and you do see their worth and understand how when coupled with watching hockey they can provide support and reasoning behind an argument then I was mistaken on how you view them.

Also certain stats take into account what you mention "who you're on the ice with, and against, in what situation"

You edited your response and added to it so I will add that finding a "metric for the infinite possibilities of life and intangible facets of the human condition" is both impossible and silly.
I'm not comparing hockey to baseball, but sabremetrics are pretty widely accepted now and baseball doesn't account for the "infinite possibilities of life"

No stat will ever be completely predictive of future outcomes, everyone realizes sports have variables and humans are unpredictable. It is about coming up with a model that is intuitive and provides reasoning behind why athletes and teams perform the way they do.

Of course advanced stats are meant to be taken with a grain of salt, I don't think you will find anyone to argue otherwise. These stats and salt grains do have some worth though so if you are holding out for this perfect metric that can break hockey down into numbers it will be a long wait since it will never be that black and white.


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07-09-2013, 01:23 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by bruyns View Post
I did read it and I prefaced that with "I might be mistaken"

That was just the vibe I got from your post, advanced stats are meritless and should be disregarded because what I personally see with my eyes is more correct than what numbers could tell me.

If I got the wrong read off of you and you do see their worth and understand how when coupled with watching hockey they can provide support and reasoning behind an argument then I was mistaken on how you view them.

Also certain stats take into account what you mention "who you're on the ice with, and against, in what situation"
Then I guess you didn't really understand what I wrote.

so there's a stat for when you get caught on a long shift after an icing? or after your team has been hemmed in your zone for 5 minutes and the momentum is in their favour?

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07-09-2013, 01:39 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by wulfio View Post
Then I guess you didn't really understand what I wrote.

so there's a stat for when you get caught on a long shift after an icing? or after your team has been hemmed in your zone for 5 minutes and the momentum is in their favour?
I guess not, if you could summarize your point it would be appreciated.

Are the advanced stats we have at our disposal perfect and cover all scenarios? No they're not and congrats if that was the point you were making since I agree and you are correct.

IMO not accounting for certain variables doesn't render them useless and they can still be used to supplement opinion. Like you mentioned they still need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I believe the vast majority of ppl who use them already knew that.

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07-09-2013, 01:53 PM
  #106
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Then I guess you didn't really understand what I wrote.

so there's a stat for when you get caught on a long shift after an icing? or after your team has been hemmed in your zone for 5 minutes and the momentum is in their favour?
Those are things that happen every game, to every team, that every player will experience at some point. After an 82 game season, these things are normalized. That's why corsi and related metrics are IN GENERAL stats. They do not attempt to simulate the game.

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07-09-2013, 01:53 PM
  #107
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My point was, there's a whole lot to the game that can't be quantified. Things that are impactful to the game that aren't shown in possession time, goals, assists, +/-, etc. I gave a boat load of examples. Things the statheads are either unaware of, or just dismiss; but anybody with a lick of sense will acknowledge just how true everything I said was.

The stats pundits present it as dogma. It shows their lack of understanding of the game.

That's my point.

But to be quite honest, if I'm going to get in to my own personal opinion. I'm never going to use stats to ever evaluate a player. I might cherry pick a stat here or there, but it begins and ends with my gut and eyes. Outside of everything within a game that can affect stats, I know how much of an affect your emotional state can play on your game. Or a style of coach. Or a system. or a role you've been typecast in to, or forced to play.

And wanting a guy for the room, the character goes a long way too. If a guy like avery was the most efficient player in corsi history it wouldn't matter, because he's a cancer.

Hockey just isn't something so cold and calculated as mathematics to me.

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07-09-2013, 02:14 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by wulfio View Post
Hockey just isn't something so cold and calculated as mathematics to me.
It's not to me either. I wouldn't have played the game all my life if it was. Dude I love hockey. I'm really passionate about hockey. I think everyone here is. I love the game so much, I want to learn as much about it as I can. You said that you only need your eyes -- I'm not like that. I'll miss things from time to time. Take Grabovski for example. I would have had no idea how he was used this year just from watching him, beyond that he wasn't getting much ice time and he was playing with crappy linemates. OZ start %s tell me he was starting in the defensive zone way more than he ever has before. That makes me think, huh, maybe that's why his point totals are lower than they have been in the past.

I'm pretty confident saying statheads like the game as much as you and I do. Would you spend hours of your free time trying to develop a new way to gain insight about the game if you weren't crazy about it?

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07-09-2013, 02:51 PM
  #109
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well for me i look at who grabovskis linemates typically were. or like when carlyle sat him in that shootout to see something was not right, or lowest TOI since being in a leafs uniform. being in the doghouse, and less skilled linemates, less playing time results in lower production, etc. i rely more on observations like that rather than stats, which I find to be very open to interpretation. which much like a controlled sample size, can be used to validate, or invalidate a hypothesis.

I just can't bring myself to hold too much stock in statistics for a game like hockey.

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07-09-2013, 02:53 PM
  #110
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Do you think we sit there with notepads and calculators calculating fenwick instead of cheering and reacting like the rest you?
No but I'm sure you guys make uneducated opinions on players you don't watch by using these advanced statistics. The best way to judge a player is to watch him play. You don't need these statistics to tell you anything you wouldn't already know through watching the game

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07-09-2013, 02:58 PM
  #111
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No but I'm sure you guys make uneducated opinions on players you don't watch by using these advanced statistics. The best way to judge a player is to watch him play. You don't need these statistics to tell you anything you wouldn't already know through watching the game
Watching the games will give you an idea of how a player plays; statistics will show you the net result of that style on that team. Both should be used to evaluate a player and/or team, because I doubt everybody watches every minute of every team's season, individually focusing on every single player on the ice.

This isn't apples and oranges here. This is wine and cheese.

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07-09-2013, 03:00 PM
  #112
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We don't watch every player but the scouts of all the NHL clubs do and then these statistic guys (ppp) try an question they're moves because the statistics say otherwise. It's actually quite hilarious

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07-09-2013, 03:17 PM
  #113
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We don't watch every player but the scouts of all the NHL clubs do and then these statistic guys (ppp) try an question they're moves because the statistics say otherwise. It's actually quite hilarious
The thing is, and Cam Charron pointed this out in a post on a blog I can't mention because I write on it too (), there are limits if you're not comparing superstars to 4th liners. At some point you're trying to find the difference between the 50th and 75th best player; the 325th vs the 400th, the 500th vs the 700th. It just becomes too close to call with eyeballs.

Now, the one thing I will say, is that these stats obviously favour a style of play that involves lots of shooting and puck posession, rather than intimidation. If that's not your thing, fine, but these strategies have tended to be the way teams see sustainable long term success in modern hockey. Maybe not 20 years ago, but can you name a recent team that has won the cup without controlling the flow and possession of the game? Even the 07 Ducks and 11 Bruins, tough as they were, won with those principles.

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07-09-2013, 03:24 PM
  #114
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pittsburgh did not control the games when they beat detroit. they held on for dear life.

and i would argue that boston was controlling the series vs. chicago, until some nifty coaching turned it around.

and every time vancouver went in to boston, that was just a horror show. yet at home, they were a completely different team.

LA however was utterly dominant last year throughout the entire post season.

the stats might be able to tell you what happened, to an extent. but they can't explain why they are happening, or predict what will happen.

let me ask this, before the playoffs last year, did corsi stats predict LA's run? or did corsi simply make note of what they did?


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07-09-2013, 03:29 PM
  #115
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We don't watch every player but the scouts of all the NHL clubs do and then these statistic guys (ppp) try an question they're moves because the statistics say otherwise. It's actually quite hilarious
You have a lot of faith in NHL GMs.

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07-09-2013, 03:40 PM
  #116
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also, lol @ quoting a blog...

is this what our world has come to?

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07-09-2013, 03:47 PM
  #117
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You have a lot of faith in NHL GMs.
more than a bunch of statistic nerds. cam charron is a dope

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07-09-2013, 04:24 PM
  #118
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But again that is where you stats guys don't get it. I don't need stats to prove that the Leafs were having teams shoot more from the outside and having less quality changes against them. I see the game watch it and can see where most of the shots are coming from.
I think we just fundamentally disagree on the above point. I'd prefer to have stats than to trust myself to remember everything I've seen. Nothing really further to debate on the subject. I understand you trust your eyes.

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07-09-2013, 04:31 PM
  #119
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more than a bunch of statistic nerds. cam charron is a dope
The sheer amount of compliance buyouts that happened this year should probably lead you to question your faith in NHL GM's.

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07-09-2013, 06:20 PM
  #120
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It's not to me either. I wouldn't have played the game all my life if it was. Dude I love hockey. I'm really passionate about hockey. I think everyone here is. I love the game so much, I want to learn as much about it as I can. You said that you only need your eyes -- I'm not like that. I'll miss things from time to time. Take Grabovski for example. I would have had no idea how he was used this year just from watching him, beyond that he wasn't getting much ice time and he was playing with crappy linemates. OZ start %s tell me he was starting in the defensive zone way more than he ever has before. That makes me think, huh, maybe that's why his point totals are lower than they have been in the past.

I'm pretty confident saying statheads like the game as much as you and I do. Would you spend hours of your free time trying to develop a new way to gain insight about the game if you weren't crazy about it?
We tend to disagree very passionately about Grabovski in particular, and I think it illustrates some very frustrating aspects of the statshead analysis of the game.

As far as I can tell, Grabo's position on the third line can be explained in fairly negative terms. He didn't produce in the sprint of a season, the was put into a checking role because Carlyle didn't want to short circuit his offensive production on the Bozak and Kadri lines, and ultimately the Leafs got rid of him because his role on the team and salary didn't make sense anymore.

So if you to introduce things like offensive zone starts into this broader picture, you'd understand that if Grabo didn't have the trust of the coach in an offensive role, your coach is not likely to start you when there is an offensive zone faceoff: not when Bozak is a reliable faceoff winner who can get the puck to threats like Kessel or JVR, or Kadri, who was superbly opportunistic throughout the year. This probably affected his numbers even more negatively in general, but the root of his troubles came from falling flat on his face to start the season, and then being surpassed by Kadri unexpectedly.

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07-09-2013, 08:16 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by wulfio View Post
also, lol @ quoting a blog...

is this what our world has come to?
Doesn't matter where the information comes from. Arguments rise or fall on their own accord. Quoting a hockey blog's conclusions is not out to lunch if the conclusions drawn are sound.

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07-09-2013, 08:29 PM
  #122
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The sheer amount of compliance buyouts that happened this year should probably lead you to question your faith in NHL GM's.
What does a drastically lowered cap have to do with NHL GM's evaluating players?

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07-09-2013, 08:40 PM
  #123
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Doesn't matter where the information comes from. Arguments rise or fall on their own accord. Quoting a hockey blog's conclusions is not out to lunch if the conclusions drawn are sound.
it's not really information. it's just one goober quoting another goober as if it's a reputable source...

kind of like eklund.

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07-09-2013, 09:13 PM
  #124
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So, it's the statheads that are considered obnoxious, right?

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07-09-2013, 09:34 PM
  #125
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Nothing advanced about "advanced stats" at all. And that's the very problem with it.

Amateur statistical knowledge combined with an amateur understanding of hockey results in a model that in no way shape or form should be taken seriously.

I mean it's fine if you want to play with your toy cars...just don't walk around thinking you are some sort of automotive expert.

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So, it's the statheads that are considered obnoxious, right?
Correct.

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