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2013 Off-Season Armchair GM Thread Part V

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:15 PM
  #301
hockeyball
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
They officially announced that burns is a forward next season. Boyle is going no where. Not sure why this is being discussed anymore...?
Someone may still get dealt, we have too many d-men regardless


Boyle
Vlasic
Braun
Stuart
Demers
Irwin
Hannan

Tennyson
Albetshauser
Demelo
Comrie
Patrecki
Acolatse
Doherty
Hayes
Pelech
Davison

They have 7 NHL d-men who can not be sent down. They have 10 AHL d-men with at least 3 that are in need of NHL time. Even if they plan on playing Davison and Pelech at forward (if so, I'm sorry Worcester) then they STILL have 15 dmen between NHL and AHL. Seems fishy.

My bet is they are shopping someone, like Demers still. You never know though, they could feel Boyle is expendable, they've done wierder crap.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:25 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Amazing how sensitive people can be on here. You can't say Rags, you can't say 7uongo but yet Tin Man is still acceptable on here. Go figure.
This forum is easily the most convoluted rated G, PC forum I have ever been on, and the moderation is so far from consistent that it's laughable.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:28 PM
  #303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Someone may still get dealt, we have too many d-men regardless


Boyle
Vlasic
Braun
Stuart
Demers
Irwin
Hannan

Tennyson
Albetshauser
Demelo
Comrie
Patrecki
Acolatse
Doherty
Hayes
Pelech
Davison

They have 7 NHL d-men who can not be sent down. They have 10 AHL d-men with at least 3 that are in need of NHL time. Even if they plan on playing Davison and Pelech at forward (if so, I'm sorry Worcester) then they STILL have 15 dmen between NHL and AHL. Seems fishy.

My bet is they are shopping someone, like Demers still. You never know though, they could feel Boyle is expendable, they've done wierder crap.
Historically they have gone with a max of about 8 each AHL and NHL. The 8th NHL guy tends to have some time in Woostah. Good pickup.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:29 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
Limping in as an 8 seed is exactly what the Kings did last season... Yeah it's rare but in a league of parity it's possible.
I wouldn't call 9-2-3 to finish the season limping in. A lot of their troubles that season was injuries. The Flyers were a similar team. A team with a lot of injuries that came together and healthy at the right time. Edmonton's run, like Carolina's on the opposite side, was unique and not likely to ever occur the same way again due to how the game was played that year that was only happening that year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sjshrky27 View Post
Question: Can DW buy out Havlat once he comes off IR if its during the season, or do teams have to wait till the off season to buy out players?

If so, DW could be proactive and grab a player like Grabovski, and trade Pav's for some quality prospects/picks, then buy out Havlet and have money left over
No, there is a buyout period that he must be healthy for in order to go through with it.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:31 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by OrrNumber4 View Post
In a way, I give slack to DW on building the 3rd line, because he acquired the assets and they didn't work. Moen, Moore, Handzus, Winnik, Galiardi, Sheppard (so far); expecting these guys to be part of that depth was not a bad bet yet it didn't work. On the other side he's done well with unexpected surprises like Gomez, Roenick, Malhotra, and Wellwood...and then those guys don't produce in the playoffs.
Those moves to build a 3rd line are the ones you should hold against him the most. Any team that is even marginally good at development should have a fair number of 3rd-liners available from within the system. Even if they suck at drafting, they are likely to have at least some coming from 1st-round picks that didn't work out (i.e. Sheppard).

The lack of a decent 3rd line is the single biggest indicator of asset mis-management IMO because a 3rd line is usually where your young top-6 potential forwards come in (like Pavelski, Cheechoo, Michalek, Bernier, and Clowe. All of whom started on the 3rd line). It's also where you might find that tweener vet free agent signing who is there to provide depth and mentoring to the young guys who should make up the rest of the line.

But it should be a position you have to waste assets on filling. Not even lower-end draft picks. Let alone 2nd round picks or talented prospects or players.

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07-11-2013, 02:33 PM
  #306
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Someone may still get dealt, we have too many d-men regardless


Boyle
Vlasic
Braun
Stuart
Demers
Irwin
Hannan

Tennyson
Albetshauser
Demelo
Comrie
Patrecki
Acolatse
Doherty
Hayes
Pelech
Davison

They have 7 NHL d-men who can not be sent down. They have 10 AHL d-men with at least 3 that are in need of NHL time. Even if they plan on playing Davison and Pelech at forward (if so, I'm sorry Worcester) then they STILL have 15 dmen between NHL and AHL. Seems fishy.

My bet is they are shopping someone, like Demers still. You never know though, they could feel Boyle is expendable, they've done wierder crap.
Hayes is a forward, capgeek has him listed incorrectly as a dman.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:34 PM
  #307
OrrNumber4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
If you call Boyle a #1 currently, so is Ehrhoff by a landslide.
No. But I would say he was a #1 from 2008-2011 (clear from the context of the post).

Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
#1's are hard to get but it doesn't take a first rounder. Lidstrom, Chara, Weber, Keith, Campbell, Letang, etc. The later rounds are littered with #1 dmen. They do take a while to develop no matter the round. It is much harder to get a franchise forward outside of the top 5 picks. There are a lot of top pick dmen who are supposed to be #1's but fall short; Bogo, Myers, Hedman, etc
I would say it is also much harder to get a franchise defenseman outside of the top-half of the draft. Lidstrom and Chara have reasons for why they were picked so late. As good as Keith/Weber are, they aren't in the range of the Pronger/Niedermayers.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:40 PM
  #308
Pinkfloyd
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Originally Posted by OrrNumber4 View Post
Sure.

In a way, I give slack to DW on building the 3rd line, because he acquired the assets and they didn't work. Moen, Moore, Handzus, Winnik, Galiardi, Sheppard (so far); expecting these guys to be part of that depth was not a bad bet yet it didn't work. On the other side he's done well with unexpected surprises like Gomez, Roenick, Malhotra, and Wellwood...and then those guys don't produce in the playoffs.



True. However, it is not an easy thing developing a #1 defenseman, especially when you pick in the latter half of the first round. In fact, it is incredibly difficult.

In fact, I hold DW to the opposite of this. He should have moved players like Ehrhoff, Carle, Gorges, etc. early for players like Campbell, Boyle, and Pronger. We all know he attempted with Niedermayer; after acquiring Thornton, I think he tried to fix the third line, when his next step should have been to fix the D. He was betting that the prospect defensemen would fill that void, and that was a huge risk to make. Even the successes like Weber/Suter took years to develop.



Yet, for the most part, he's been able to get out of those mistakes. He got rid of Heatley's contract, Cheechoo's contract, etc.



Conventional thought is often underrated. There is a reason convention exists.

Your comment about too late vs too early points to the different calculus. Doug Wilson and the Sharks, for example, would rather have a player like Boyle for a playoff run, and then lose him for nothing or trade him for fewer assets, then trade him for more assets and not have him for their run.
I'll give credit to DW for properly assessing the need for a position more often than not but he has failed consistently at addressing them. The biggest issue is the drafting and developing. Yes it's difficult to draft and develop a #1 defenseman but it's been long enough to where one should've occurred by now. And really, at this point, if it's that difficult, shouldn't something be different between the drafting and development to account for the reality that they're not getting the job done in that regard? And yet, there's very little done there. I've never said that any of their jobs are easy. I'm saying that there seems to be very little in terms of accountability at their level.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:41 PM
  #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Someone may still get dealt, we have too many d-men regardless


Boyle
Vlasic
Braun
Stuart
Demers
Irwin
Hannan

Tennyson
Albetshauser
Demelo
Comrie
Patrecki
Acolatse
Doherty
Hayes
Pelech
Davison

They have 7 NHL d-men who can not be sent down. They have 10 AHL d-men with at least 3 that are in need of NHL time. Even if they plan on playing Davison and Pelech at forward (if so, I'm sorry Worcester) then they STILL have 15 dmen between NHL and AHL. Seems fishy.

My bet is they are shopping someone, like Demers still. You never know though, they could feel Boyle is expendable, they've done wierder crap.
All these Dmen without counting Mueller, who is our top D prospect.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:43 PM
  #310
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And the shocker of the summer kovalchuck retires.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:48 PM
  #311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OrrNumber4 View Post
No. But I would say he was a #1 from 2008-2011 (clear from the context of the post).



I would say it is also much harder to get a franchise defenseman outside of the top-half of the draft. Lidstrom and Chara have reasons for why they were picked so late. As good as Keith/Weber are, they aren't in the range of the Pronger/Niedermayers.
If you call Campbell and Boyle #1's, Ehrhoff is even this year. Despite playing on a team that was pathetic, his points and possession stats were way up there. In fact the only one on the team who was. Not much more definitive than that for this past year. If anything, Campbell wasn't a #1 this past year.

Giving excuses on Lidstrom and Chara is just that, an excuse. The fact is they were picked late and the reasons didn't matter. They were available. There are repeated reasons for late picks. The list of #1 dmen after the first is pretty long and a Norris nomination is a pretty definitive way of countering arguments that they weren't good enough.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:49 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Barrie22 View Post
And the shocker of the summer kovalchuck retires.
What in the actual ****???

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:50 PM
  #313
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Originally Posted by sharksohnoes! View Post
What in the actual ****???
2 years after signing a 15 year contract lol

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:55 PM
  #314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lebanezer View Post
Hayes is a forward, capgeek has him listed incorrectly as a dman.
Gah... ok well let's take inventory here:

NHL Forwards: 13
Thornton
Burns
Marleau
Pavelski
Couture
Havlat
Hertl
Torres
Wingels
Kennedy
Burish
Sheppard
Desjardins

AHL Forwards: 15
Stalberg
Oleksuk
Tierney
Nieto
Hamilton
Tarasov
Emanuelsson
Hayes
Reid
Schwartz
McCarthy
Livingston
Crane?
Gogol
Viedensky

Total Forwards: 28

NHL Defensemen: 7
Boyle
Vlasic
Stuart
Braun
Demers
irwin
hannan

AHL Defensemen: 8
Tennyson
Acolotse
Demelo
Albetshauser
Doherty
Pelech
Davison
Petrecki

Total defensemen: 15

Counting goalies the NHL team has 22 people and the AHL team has 25...

nothing difinitive but it sure wouldn't surprise me if the are planning to ship someone out on D and open up that 7th spot for one of the AHL guys, and seems like we have too many forwards too.

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Old
07-11-2013, 02:57 PM
  #315
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in the end, as soon as a player is drafter the number doesnt mean anything.

only outliers i can think of are overagers, and guys that just lack the physical tools altogether to make it in the NHL.

development starts as soon as they are drafted. coaches will see them in camp, develop a workout plan for them (gain weight, work on your skating, etc etc) the young guys with the desire can usually out do their draft position. Sharks have a history of this.

more than anything, the overall lack of drafting in the first round is our troublemaker. DW, imo has taken too long to realize the uselessness of rentals for firsts. I dont think our development of dmen is anything to scoff at, weve taken three guys recently outside of the first round that are top 4 guys. then you can add undrafted guy like irwin playing hard minutes, and a guy like tennyson who looks like he could step in any minute now.

mueller will be interesting to keep an eye on, because he arguably has the better physical tools all around than our current crop. should be an excellent development case test to watch.

trading a first for a playoff run is always a gamble, and in hindsight shouldnt be done in consecutive years.

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07-11-2013, 02:57 PM
  #316
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nothing difinitive but it sure wouldn't surprise me if the are planning to ship someone out on D and open up that 7th spot for one of the AHL guys, and seems like we have too many forwards too.
15 is about right. More injuries on defense than offense, especially in the AHL. Woostah can go through 2 spares fairly quickly.

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Old
07-11-2013, 03:01 PM
  #317
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I don't understand Kovalchuk's reasoning or timing. Seems like something he should have done before the draft or before July 5th.

Sucks to be NJ, although they got rid of that contract for free.

What happens if he un-retires in a year? FA or still property of NJ?

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Old
07-11-2013, 03:04 PM
  #318
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Originally Posted by Vaasa View Post
Those moves to build a 3rd line are the ones you should hold against him the most. Any team that is even marginally good at development should have a fair number of 3rd-liners available from within the system. Even if they suck at drafting, they are likely to have at least some coming from 1st-round picks that didn't work out (i.e. Sheppard).
The Sharks have always had plenty of potential depth players in the system. The current prospect pool points to the same.

However, the Sharks specifically have struggled with the identity of their third line. They've wavered between having a third scoring line vs. a shutdown line. I think initially, you saw the Sharks jettison players like Boyes, Goc, Dimitrakos, Kaspar, etc. who would have been decent in a scoring role for vets with experience who could play a shut-down game.

Now they have been trending in the other direction. Acquiring players like Wellwood, Galiardi, Sheppard, and letting go of players like Handzus.

Moreover, the Sharks were mostly a fairly young team. With players like Michalek, Bernier, Pavelski, Clowe, etc. in the top-6, I think they were rightfully hesitant to put inexperience on the other lines as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaasa View Post
The lack of a decent 3rd line is the single biggest indicator of asset mis-management IMO because a 3rd line is usually where your young top-6 potential forwards come in (like Pavelski, Cheechoo, Michalek, Bernier, and Clowe. All of whom started on the 3rd line).
Actually, Michalek started on the top line.

I'm not sure what the point you are making here. Yes, for a while, the Sharks haven't had that young talent that normally debuts on the third line and then graduates to the top lines.

Typically, the players doing that now would be the players from the 2008-2012 drafts. Let us look at those drafts.

In 2008, they got Wingels (who has yet to take the next step) and Demers (same). They lost their two second round picks taking Couture and Petrecki in 2007. The Couture pick being a great pick in hindsight and the Petrecki pick being universally applauded at the time. They lost their first in the Campbell trade.

In 2009, they simply didn't draft well. They got Dan Boyle for that 1st pick; without Boyle the defense looks a lot worse. For the current roster, that trade was clear win, even if the Sharks would have had Wishart now.

In 2010, the Sharks would have had Coyle and Setoguchi but not Burns. That is a trade I make every time. They also have Abeltshauser and Hamilton as likely NHL candidates.

In 2011, Nieto is looking very good. Again, I take Burns over Coyle, Setoguchi, and the first.

In 2012, a couple of guys look good. Hertl should contribute this year.

So in conclusion, I guess you could have expected the Sharks to come up with a player more in 2009 and 2011 (though the 2011 guy would not be ready to contribute this year).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaasa View Post
It's also where you might find that tweener vet free agent signing who is there to provide depth and mentoring to the young guys who should make up the rest of the line.
Don't get your point. DW has tried to put these guys here with mixed success. You've had Grier, Roenick, Malhotra, Wellwood, Winnik, and Gomez as the best examples of successes, although playoff play would eliminate many of those. He made good bets with Moore, Handzus, Moen, Galiardi, Sheppard, etc. that didn't quite pan out. I would have liked to keep Galiardi, but meh.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaasa View Post
But it should be a position you have to waste assets on filling. Not even lower-end draft picks. Let alone 2nd round picks or talented prospects or players.
I don't think you realize how valueless a 2nd round pick really is.

The Sharks want to win. Now. That means trading fuuuutures for current help. For experience. EVERY team does it. Juxtaposer had a great retort to you last time you brought this up.

In other news, HFboards must be going crazy over the Kovvy retirement.

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Old
07-11-2013, 03:04 PM
  #319
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I feel like there's a good shot Hamilton makes a strong showing too.

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Old
07-11-2013, 03:07 PM
  #320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
If you call Campbell and Boyle #1's, Ehrhoff is even this year. Despite playing on a team that was pathetic, his points and possession stats were way up there. In fact the only one on the team who was. Not much more definitive than that for this past year. If anything, Campbell wasn't a #1 this past year.

Giving excuses on Lidstrom and Chara is just that, an excuse. The fact is they were picked late and the reasons didn't matter. They were available. There are repeated reasons for late picks. The list of #1 dmen after the first is pretty long and a Norris nomination is a pretty definitive way of countering arguments that they weren't good enough.
It is the obvious excuse. Lidstrom was a Swede and Chara was abnormally large. Those kinds of instances do not happen again. Like Vancouver drafting Bure...it is a quirk.

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07-11-2013, 03:07 PM
  #321
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And the shocker of the summer kovalchuck retires.
Great...more fodder for people to hate on Russian players with.

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07-11-2013, 03:19 PM
  #322
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Originally Posted by murdock1116 View Post
Great...more fodder for people to hate on Russian players with.
You have to admit, your odds of being screwed by a Russian player are higher than any other nationality. Whether it be because of a stupid transfer agreement, poor safety, or poor health care, it's a risk.

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07-11-2013, 03:23 PM
  #323
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You have to admit, your odds of being screwed by a Russian player are higher than any other nationality. Whether it be because of a stupid transfer agreement, poor safety, or poor health care, it's a risk.
Every player is unique onto their own. I don't agree with that.

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07-11-2013, 03:23 PM
  #324
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
You have to admit, your odds of being screwed by a Russian player are higher than any other nationality. Whether it be because of a stupid transfer agreement, poor safety, or poor health care, it's a risk.
And you've only named the ones that are outside the player's control.

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07-11-2013, 03:26 PM
  #325
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Is Kovalcuk just retiring from the NHL or from hockey in general?

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