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Are we all homers in regards to our prospects?

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07-09-2013, 02:50 PM
  #26
Zetterberg4Captain
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I would say most fans of other teams equate lottery pick prospects as all being equal to crosby, stamkos, ovechkin, kane, toews and malkin and those teams without lottery pick prospects or even top 10 pick prospects as being all crap or overhype(essentially detroits)

and wings fans tend to think we dont need lottery picks or even top 10 pick prospects because we havent for the past 20 years and its not been a problem and assume we will churn out another superstar from the latter rounds just as we have done before and thus assume our top prospects are all golden boys

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07-09-2013, 03:00 PM
  #27
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We don't overrate more than anyone else.

That said, there's insane hatred for anything Wings-related across the internets.

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07-09-2013, 03:07 PM
  #28
InjuredChoker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post

By the way it is high time we start calling Mrazek elite.

Prospect goalies that have won the Calder this past decade: Price, Holtby, Pavelec, and Lehner. You win the Calder as a goalie at a young age you project as a #1 or are a number 1. Petr has entered the elite category, he is in a fight with Gibson for best goalie prospect in all of hockey.
Neuvirth won Calder Cup as a rookie in 08-09. He isn't legit starter.

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07-09-2013, 03:13 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by InjuredChoker View Post
Neuvirth won Calder Cup as a rookie in 08-09. He isn't legit starter.
Pretty much got passed by Holby, was the #1 starter for a year in Washington starting the most games and being the primary heading into the playoffs.

Guy is approaching at least his 6th partial season in the NHL, 4th full time.

So he got passed over for his #1 gig by another Calder Cup prospect goalie winner.

Stand by the fact that prospect goalies winning seems to show #1 upside or outright #1 status.

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07-09-2013, 03:18 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Guru Meditation View Post
Wait, we're paid?
Bench Bucks!

But yeah, this is consistent across all fan bases. I remember Stars fans were upset about the Kari Lehtonen trade due to the prospect traded. Anybody even remember the name of that prospect?

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07-09-2013, 03:23 PM
  #31
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I dunno, I'm sure we are just as much as other teams overvalue their prospects, however, many prospect oriented sites consistently have us ranked in the top 10 around the league. Considering those lists are likely not assembled by Red Wings fans, it makes it fairly more objective. Also, if you compare our pool now to the pool we had in 2008, it's night and day.

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07-09-2013, 03:30 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bench View Post
Bench Bucks!

But yeah, this is consistent across all fan bases. I remember Stars fans were upset about the Kari Lehtonen trade due to the prospect traded. Anybody even remember the name of that prospect?
I remember calling him Ivan the terrible, cannot think of his last name but think it was Vishnevsky or something like that probably spelled it wrong.

By the way at that point Lehtonen was like a walking ambulance. The guy traded was a first round pick plus I think they got some other draft pick.

If you thought Lehtonen was never going to be healthy again, I could see being upset. Personally I thought the D-prospect sucked anyway, so the risk was fairly low.

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07-09-2013, 03:32 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyborg Yzerman View Post
I dunno, I'm sure we are just as much as other teams overvalue their prospects, however, many prospect oriented sites consistently have us ranked in the top 10 around the league. Considering those lists are likely not assembled by Red Wings fans, it makes it fairly more objective. Also, if you compare our pool now to the pool we had in 2008, it's night and day.
As soon as they do it they are fans though.

I know Pronman is hunted for his supposed love of the Wings, even though he states over and over he puts a premium on puck possession and we just do a terrific job of drafting that kind of player.

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07-09-2013, 03:33 PM
  #34
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I think we overrate some prospects in thinking that this or that guy may be the "next" Dats or Z. We have a lot of prospects that have 20-30 goal / 60-70 pt potential. Don't have any elite superstar prospects that every team in the NHL salivates over though.

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07-09-2013, 03:34 PM
  #35
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I think what other people may knock us on is we haven't had any prospect really play since 07 where as most teams have a guy over 100 game and if you add them to that teams prospect pool it would probably look better. Also people seem to disagree on what a prospect is. And I see people saw we don't have any blue chip top 3 or top 2 guys but that's more on where we draft


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07-09-2013, 03:40 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post
Pretty much got passed by Holby, was the #1 starter for a year in Washington starting the most games and being the primary heading into the playoffs.
In 10-11?

Not bc he was that good but bc Varly was injured.

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07-09-2013, 03:43 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by InjuredChoker View Post
In 10-11?

Not bc he was that good but bc Varly was injured.
The point was more he shouldered the #1 load before. He just lost the #1 competition to Holtby another Calder Cup champion, so him losing out to another one doesn't weaken the case as much as you're hoping for.

But understand believing he won't be a #1 in this league, I actually think he will get his chance at some point.

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07-09-2013, 03:45 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post
Personally I thought the D-prospect sucked anyway, so the risk was fairly low.
Because you weren't a Dallas fan! Thus our point all fans do it.

It was high risk, but trading Ivan wasn't. At the time he was the highest rated defensive prospect in the system so he had lots of hype. Hype was all it was, though, and people being hopeful he'd be Zubov like in some way due to nationality.

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07-09-2013, 03:53 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post
The point was more he shouldered the #1 load before. He just lost the #1 competition to Holtby another Calder Cup champion, so him losing out to another one doesn't weaken the case as much as you're hoping for
Neuvirth has always lost his job with Caps, if the competition was healthy.

I wouldn't call anyone legit #1 who in his best season played 48 games and posted 91.4 sv%.

Weaken the case as much as I'm hoping for? What I hope is totally irrelevant. And if it isn't that's not what I'm hoping for if it means Mrazek becomes #1 starter down the road. Which I believe he has very good chance to do.

Quote:
But understand believing he won't be a #1 in this league, I actually think he will get his chance at some point.
Didn't say he won't be, just isn't one now. It is good idea from GMGM to use 2.5 mil on him as bench warmer instead of signing one for almost 2. mil less and actually address the weakness of that team. Caps fans ain't too happy about that.

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07-09-2013, 03:59 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bench View Post
Because you weren't a Dallas fan! Thus our point all fans do it.

It was high risk, but trading Ivan wasn't. At the time he was the highest rated defensive prospect in the system so he had lots of hype. Hype was all it was, though, and people being hopeful he'd be Zubov like in some way due to nationality.
I guess it could be, but more because I follow the AHL pretty religiously. Plus have gotten more and more into the draft so I understand who those players are before they show up for their start in North American hockey. I had seen this particular guy with both Peoria and Texas and had a pretty good feel for him.

For instance I like the chance of going to get Seguin and what it could mean. But the Stars gave up a ton of talent to do it. That was a very meaty package, especially in terms of the prospects they used. Everyone probably knows Eriksson was a big deal, but what they sent with him is nothing to sneeze at. Brendan's little brother is a good player and Morrow is a solid top 4 future guy and actually pretty soon.

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07-09-2013, 04:01 PM
  #41
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I figure part of it is simply the nature of fandom: we follow/watch Wings prospects, but most of us don't follow other teams' prospects to any significant degree. That's true of other teams too. I mean, there's a thread in the prospects forum where you can clearly see that virtually every team thinks they have a top 10 prospect pool. Nobody has any particular idea about anybody else's pool aside from numbers and draft rankings.

I think this site tends to be biased against older prospects, anybody drafted past the 2nd round, anybody who doesn't play in Ontario or western Canada, and anybody south of 6'0. It's also very "what have you done for me lately?" If you haven't done anything huge lately, it's assumed to be because you couldn't, and so you're written off. Obviously, a lot of that describes what the Wings have been doing, and because of those factors, a lot of posters here don't know why they'd want to follow Wings prospects.

Besides, let's face it; this site is largely about prospect "sex appeal." People want to get excited about the next big thing, the next mega-star, and the next reason to believe that their team can win the Cup. The easy-does-it 5 year development plan for solid but unspectacular undersized European guys is not an easy sell. Hell, it's not even an easy sell to most Wings fans, including those who know how well it works.

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07-09-2013, 04:02 PM
  #42
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I would say so.

Good depth of interesing prospects, but lacking the homerun prospects.

Mostly just projects outside of Mrazek and Nyquist (If he is still considered a prospect)

Not saying I don't believe in Jarnkrok, but his AHL stint raised some eyebrows for the wrong reasons.

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07-09-2013, 04:05 PM
  #43
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I would say so.

Good depth of interesing prospects, but lacking the homerun prospects.

Mostly just projects outside of Mrazek and Nyquist (If he is still considered a prospect)
Why don't people ever include Jurco in that list? I really think he's a home run prospect.

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07-09-2013, 04:14 PM
  #44
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If were going by HF rankings were so high because we havent lost anyone to graduation. And thats huge. Nashville has lost Josi 38th, Wilson 7th, Bourque 132, Smith 98th, and Ellis 11th. 2 were high picks but add Josi, Bourque and smith to their pool and it looks a lot better.

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07-09-2013, 04:17 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Guru Meditation View Post
Why don't people ever include Jurco in that list? I really think he's a home run prospect.
There are plenty of homeruns. The chances are low, but they constitute homeruns.

Mrazek, seems the most likely to be a homerun #1 goalie, but a #1 goalie is what he looks like, just how good, if he turns into a top 5 in the league that is a homerun.

Sproul, I still see him as a second pairing guy. I just don't think his D is going to be good enough. But he has all the tools, really an elite guy in terms of that. He irons out his defense, homerun, but don't have my heart set on it like so many do, but it would turn him into a #1 D-man.

Mantha, massive with an impressive stride and great release. They fix his compete level and get him engaging at all times he is a first line 40 goal scorer type. Chances of that, I don't know, but certainly a homerun candidate.

Jurco, power forward frame, best hands in the system and his skating seems to improve by the week. Certainly he could become a homerun.

Tvrdon and Marchenko even have homerun abilities, chances are extremely small but both could still be quite useful. Jensen actually has a lot of similarities to Duncan Keith, but I don't think his offense will continue. But he has ELITE skating and a very good frame for an NHL D-man.

So yeah chances they do it, aren't great. But at this point in their development they can carry the homerun tag no matter how small those percentages are.

That is really where the overrating comes in. Basically when looking at your own prospects, very few cut off the ceilings. This is done for a variety of reasons, usually one of your best players has done just what his ceiling was or above. There are players around the league that have done this, look at a guy like Benn. So you have experience with it, no reason to chop that off, before you know it is gone. What makes Jurco and Mrazek exciting is there is little reason to do it and they are already pros. A serious evaluation can be done on the other guys when they hit Grand Rapids and we can get a better feel.

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07-09-2013, 04:25 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Guru Meditation View Post
Why don't people ever include Jurco in that list? I really think he's a home run prospect.
He really stands out when you watch him play, but simply hasn't been able to produce impressive offensive numbers .

A homerun prospect has to show signs of being able to hang point per game type numbers IMO. I think he could be a good two way second line winger. But you still have to use the word 'could', so he is far from a homerun.

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07-09-2013, 04:25 PM
  #47
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I think a lot of the detractors look at the Wings' system and see guys not hitting the NHL until 24, 25, or 26. These guys spend 3-5 years developing in the minors. So SUBJECTIVELY, people look and say "If they were any good they'd be in the NHL already."

When guys aren't drafted and thrown right into the top-6 (see: Tampa Bay), people think there's something wrong with the player. In essence, it's more a reflection of the team and the organization. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with Tampa Bay, but I am saying that the way the prospects in the Wings' organization are treated and groomed is different than most other teams.

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07-09-2013, 04:29 PM
  #48
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When guys aren't drafted and thrown right into the top-6 (see: Tampa Bay), people think there's something wrong with the player. In essence, it's more a reflection of the team and the organization. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with Tampa Bay, but I am saying that the way the prospects in the Wings' organization are treated and groomed is different than most other teams.
Yeah this also means our prospects don't go through the rankings tumble that others experience often.

I mean where do Connolly or Nino fit right now in a lot of opinions on prospects? They aren't bad players but have been significantly downgraded for their stumbles. Curious to see the treatment of Granlund this year, he didn't stumble on their level, but have a feeling some of the huge wind in his sails in terms of discussion has taken a fairly significant hit.

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07-09-2013, 04:33 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Amyklas View Post
I think a lot of the detractors look at the Wings' system and see guys not hitting the NHL until 24, 25, or 26. These guys spend 3-5 years developing in the minors. So SUBJECTIVELY, people look and say "If they were any good they'd be in the NHL already."

When guys aren't drafted and thrown right into the top-6 (see: Tampa Bay), people think there's something wrong with the player. In essence, it's more a reflection of the team and the organization. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with Tampa Bay, but I am saying that the way the prospects in the Wings' organization are treated and groomed is different than most other teams.
Definitely a lot of truth in that- the Wings will be the last team to rush a prospect to the NHL.

But it's also fair to say that up until the last few drafts which netted the prospects most of us are excited about, they had a pretty long dry spell where they were pretty much only putting bottom 6 forwards and bottom pairing defensemen into the league.

Detroit hasn't had a real high-end impact player young guy hit the team in years outside of Howard (again, referring to top 6 F's and potential top pairing D- I know people drool all over Helm, but he's a bottom 6 lifer). Ideally, this year's rookies and next year's crop will change that.

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07-09-2013, 04:38 PM
  #50
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Definitely a lot of truth in that- the Wings will be the last team to rush a prospect to the NHL.

But it's also fair to say that up until the last few drafts which netted the prospects most of us are excited about, they had a pretty long dry spell where they were pretty much only putting bottom 6 forwards and bottom pairing defensemen into the league.

Detroit hasn't had a real high-end impact player young guy hit the team in years outside of Howard (again, referring to top 6 F's and potential top pairing D- I know people drool all over Helm, but he's a bottom 6 lifer). Ideally, this year's rookies and next year's crop will change that.
Come on now, they drafted 1st line power forward Justin MF Abdelkader in 2005.

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