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2013 Offseason: UFAs, Trades, What's Next? | Part VII

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Old
07-13-2013, 07:24 AM
  #351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReginKarlssonLehner View Post
True but now Melnyk has a year to weigh every option he has. He and Murray know that if they want to win a cup, it can be very soon but they must be able to spend for it.

If we are in same situation again next year then I fear greatly of what's to come.
I'm not expecting this team to spend... Melnyk won't williningly blow money away now cause of his financial situation.

If he does not get a Casino I expect us to go back to the small market Bryden years

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07-13-2013, 08:13 AM
  #352
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Originally Posted by ReginKarlssonLehner View Post
The cap floor next year is going to rise to 54 million. That's our current budget level. There will also be a lot of free agents and most likely some huge names because some teams still trying to extend their younger stars and what-not.

We can really cash in huge. Not to mention 2 years from now where cap floor will rise even more and we will have a lot of key names we must re-sign.

I don't care what's going on, but all I know is we have a great chance to set our team up financially for the future and nab a star forward next year through free-agency.

I don't wanna hear the term budget next year, we are contending now.
Cap floor goes up if ceiling goes up right?

But we have this:
As of 2014-15, the salary cap will be set every year according to projected NHL revenues for the coming season, based on a 50/50 revenue split between players and teams.

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/lea...And-Escrow.htm

2013-14 Compliance Buyouts:

To ease the transition to a lower salary cap in the early years of the CBA, teams can buy out up to two contracts without counting the cost of those buyouts against the salary cap. These "compliance" buyouts can be exercised in the summer of 2013 or the summer of 2014.
The cost of the buyouts will count against the playersí 50 percent share of HRR.
All contract buyouts beyond those two will be counted against the salary cap.


Next year, the floor won't reach 54M. It could even go down.

Note: Thanks Great Below for mentioning it earlier this week.

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07-13-2013, 08:17 AM
  #353
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I thought so too but I was reading Stan Bowman interview from a few weeks ago and it seems the compliance buyout comes out of escrow and won't effect that cap.

Bowman was projecting the cap to be 75 million next season.

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07-13-2013, 08:30 AM
  #354
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Originally Posted by The Great Below View Post
I thought so too but I was reading Stan Bowman interview from a few weeks ago and it seems the compliance buyout comes out of escrow and won't effect that cap.

Bowman was projecting the cap to be 75 million next season.
Why even have a salary cap if it's at 75 mil? That's stupid high.

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07-13-2013, 08:41 AM
  #355
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Originally Posted by The Great Below View Post
I'm not expecting this team to spend... Melnyk won't williningly blow money away now cause of his financial situation.

If he does not get a Casino I expect us to go back to the small market Bryden years
The cap floor and ceiling is calculated based on this formula:

Code:
                           50% of League HHR (previous year) - Projected Player Benefits
Adjusted midpoint= --------------------------------------------------------- x 105%
                                                   # of teams in the league

Lower limit =  85% of Adjusted midpoint
Upper limit = 115% of Adjusted midpoint
This formula sets an expected growth of ~5% in league revenues each year.

This year they are using Midpoint of $54.15M (but stretching the floor and ceiling beyond 15%)

To get a cap floor of $54M next season League HHR (less benefits) would have to be $3.63B, or an increase of ~12%. Over double what the projected increase is.

I expect the floor to under $50M next season.

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Old
07-13-2013, 09:10 AM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skrymir View Post
The cap floor and ceiling is calculated based on this formula:

Code:
                           50% of League HHR (previous year) - Projected Player Benefits
Adjusted midpoint= --------------------------------------------------------- x 105%
                                                   # of teams in the league

Lower limit =  85% of Adjusted midpoint
Upper limit = 115% of Adjusted midpoint
This formula sets an expected growth of ~5% in league revenues each year.

This year they are using Midpoint of $54.15M (but stretching the floor and ceiling beyond 15%)

To get a cap floor of $54M next season League HHR (less benefits) would have to be $3.63B, or an increase of ~12%. Over double what the projected increase is.

I expect the floor to under $50M next season.
Yeah, I agree. I've been looking at some projections for the increases in cap and I think many are wildly optimistic. The optimism comes from playing in a shortened season, where there was a huge degree of interest in a 48 game schedule where all of the games were meaningful. The fact that two popular US teams met in the finals also helped television ratings. I suspect things will come back down to Earth this coming season. Two non- playoff teams duking it out in March just wont bring in the same gate, the television ratings will fall closer to their norm (which dictates the size of TV contracts).

With the drop in players share of HRR decreasing from 57% to 50%, and projected increases in HRR of 5% per year, it should take 3 seasons for the cap ceiling to get back to where it was prior to the lockout. Of course, the 5% figure is only an estimate.

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07-13-2013, 10:16 AM
  #357
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[That's what he thinks... here's the link
http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=674821

Quote:
Why is the salary cap going down next year?

It was negotiated in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. We had a shortened season, so the revenues were less than you would have in a regular season. If you went by the letter of the law, because the revenues were down, the cap would be well below what it will be, which is $64.3 million. With a full season next year, it could go to $75 million. The cap this year was $70.2 million, based on the previous season.

But if you arenít playing games during a lockout, you arenít incurring the cost of player salaries. So why does the cap go down?

Because itís based on revenue. Hockey related revenue: HRR. If you arenít playing games, you arenít taking in revenue. Again, if they had stuck strictly to the formula after the lockout, the cap would have been maybe $45 or $50 million. Obviously, that was an issue. So the number that was negotiated turned out to be $64.3 million.
No wonder why the Pens signed all core players with no regard to the financial future... if they are projecting the same thing

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07-13-2013, 10:22 AM
  #358
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Post from danishh from this thread on the business board on future cap projection
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1454551

Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
for fugu:


edit: actual revenue is 7% growth in all other seasons (what NHLPA was projecting during CBA negotiations).
the reason for 10% growth in 2013-14 is all the outdoor games.


with this, i got 76M cap for 2014-15. Maybe stan bowman isnt that nuts?

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07-13-2013, 11:31 AM
  #359
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70mil+ cap = huge advantage to big market teams.

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07-13-2013, 11:50 AM
  #360
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Originally Posted by Benny FTW View Post
70mil+ cap = huge advantage to big market teams.
That's why the Sens need the Casino.... being a minimum team they could be being out spent by 28 million by the cap teams in a few years as the cap rises like some are projecting.

I don't think people realize what's about to happen... the game is growing rapidly and revenue is exploding.

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07-13-2013, 12:42 PM
  #361
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Originally Posted by The Great Below View Post
That's why the Sens need the Casino.... being a minimum team they could be being out spent by 28 million by the cap teams in a few years as the cap rises like some are projecting.

I don't think people realize what's about to happen... the game is growing rapidly and revenue is exploding.
You've mentioned casino several times here, so I figure I should respond here rather than in the casino thread. I believe it is delusional to assume all, or even most, of the profits from a casino in Kanata would be funneled into the Sens. The only way I can see a guaranteed amount of cash being funneled into the team is through the rent paid by the casino to the arena. Any other profits from Melnyk's stake will go to Melnyk. He will then decide where to reinvest, and I am betting it would go toward injecting more cash into his pharmaceutical ventures long before it hits the team coffers and increases the payroll. The reason I make this assumption is that his fortune is based on that industry, and he only decided to own a hockey team after he accumulated vast wealth.

I'm sure I'm not popping any bubbles because people will believe what they want to believe, but beyond an extra couple of hundred k per year in rent nothing else will trickle down to the team from a Kanata casino. We are far more likely to see plans for "viagra for dogs!" coming down the pipes than an increase in team payroll that lifts us away from the floor.

The team payroll over the past few seasons has typically been in the $50-55mm range. That can only go up if a core revenue stream for the team (not a secondary venture not directly linked to the team) goes up. These could be ticket sales, ticket price increases, secondary profits from things associated with the arena, television, and things of that nature. This is the core of common sense, because any cash put into the team that does not come from one of those core streams is basically the equivalent to throwing money into a barrel and setting it on fire (i.e. it is a loss for the sake of having a loss without any sustainability or guarantee of a return for the investment).

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07-13-2013, 01:05 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Skrymir View Post
The cap floor and ceiling is calculated based on this formula:

Code:
                           50% of League HHR (previous year) - Projected Player Benefits
Adjusted midpoint= --------------------------------------------------------- x 105%
                                                   # of teams in the league

Lower limit =  85% of Adjusted midpoint
Upper limit = 115% of Adjusted midpoint
This formula sets an expected growth of ~5% in league revenues each year.

This year they are using Midpoint of $54.15M (but stretching the floor and ceiling beyond 15%)

To get a cap floor of $54M next season League HHR (less benefits) would have to be $3.63B, or an increase of ~12%. Over double what the projected increase is.

I expect the floor to under $50M next season.
If the NHL gets two new teams in the west to even up the two conferences like Seattle & Las Vegas as examples then that should effect the actual cap I would assume & it wouldn't go up quite so quickly.

I also think that Ottawa city coucil will continue to petition the Province of Ontario & specifically OLG to allow a second Casino in Ottawa although I could see RCR fighting that too. If the province & specifically a new government in Ontario allows a second Casino in Ottawa then all this is mute, if it's Mlenyk who gets it & he is able to put it at CTC. I don't know if Ottawa can support two casinos but I would imagine it would hurt the Gatineau Lac Leamy Casino who could lose some customers.

What's amusing is that Lac Leamy is closest to downtown Ottawa where so many think would be the most benefitial spot to place the Casino but I think they would split the business as francophones would still likely go to the Gatineau Casino including francophone Ontarians. RCR would be for the eastend & CTC would be for the westend, I just don't know if Ottawa can support that many Casinos, I don't think so.

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07-13-2013, 01:05 PM
  #363
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anyone else think we should trade zack smith for a similar or cheaper player but one that has scoring abilities or for a draft pick so we can sign an FA for a cheaper amount? it will allow zibanejad to play and develop at center, it will allow pageau to try to earn the 4C spot out of camp and if he cant then we have O'Brien to replace him.

Free agency wise then we can use that money to get one of:prospal,boyes,morrow,penner
Trade wise: im really not too sure since we would need to find someone with a similar cap hit

what do you guys think?

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07-13-2013, 01:10 PM
  #364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StefanW View Post
You've mentioned casino several times here, so I figure I should respond here rather than in the casino thread. I believe it is delusional to assume all, or even most, of the profits from a casino in Kanata would be funneled into the Sens. The only way I can see a guaranteed amount of cash being funneled into the team is through the rent paid by the casino to the arena. Any other profits from Melnyk's stake will go to Melnyk. He will then decide where to reinvest, and I am betting it would go toward injecting more cash into his pharmaceutical ventures long before it hits the team coffers and increases the payroll. The reason I make this assumption is that his fortune is based on that industry, and he only decided to own a hockey team after he accumulated vast wealth.
i won't pretend to be in the know on melnyk's pharmaceutical business, but i think i read somewhere that a few of his big drugs are in a phase waiting for approval. i don't believe they need that much more money for those and it's more of a wait and see stage. i'm sure money still has to go in there, but not a large portion of the profit from a casino.

Quote:
I'm sure I'm not popping any bubbles because people will believe what they want to believe, but beyond an extra couple of hundred k per year in rent nothing else will trickle down to the team from a Kanata casino. We are far more likely to see plans for "viagra for dogs!" coming down the pipes than an increase in team payroll that lifts us away from the floor.

The team payroll over the past few seasons has typically been in the $50-55mm range. That can only go up if a core revenue stream for the team (not a secondary venture not directly linked to the team) goes up. These could be ticket sales, ticket price increases, secondary profits from things associated with the arena, television, and things of that nature. This is the core of common sense, because any cash put into the team that does not come from one of those core streams is basically the equivalent to throwing money into a barrel and setting it on fire (i.e. it is a loss for the sake of having a loss without any sustainability or guarantee of a return for the investment).
i made a post in the casino thread that i think responds to this part.

the gist of it was that if he has more money (from any of his business ventures), he'll put more into the team because it's a toy/hobby. at the end of the day, he will be able to sell the team and retain any losses.

i found the post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATdaisuki View Post
people don't think that if melnyk had a lot more money, he wouldn't spend more on the sens? the team is his hobby. his toy. just like any person, as long as you're not bleeding cash to have fun, you can do it. the team either needs to make more money, or he needs to make enough money from other things to make the loses the team have look insignificant. a casino would help in making the loses from the team not hurt so much. rich people don't just sit around accumulating money. they spend it on things they like. that's why they have big houses, nice cars, vacation homes, etc. those "toys" they get are also an investment, i understand that, but it's not like he couldn't just sell the team to get his money back at the end of the day anyway. the more money you put into the team, the better it does. the better it does, the more t.v. , advertising, and merchandise money you get and the more valuable your franchise is (i think that's how it works). all the while getting bragging rights and entertainment. don't forget, euge is a hockey fan (or at east a sens fan). that's a valuable trait to have in your nhl team owner. he'll be willing to spend if his money pool increases because he'll want his team to succeed.
please excuse me for my probably naive, non-finance educated opinion.

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07-13-2013, 01:14 PM
  #365
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Originally Posted by TheNewEra View Post
anyone else think we should trade zack smith for a similar or cheaper player but one that has scoring abilities or for a draft pick so we can sign an FA for a cheaper amount? it will allow zibanejad to play and develop at center, it will allow pageau to try to earn the 4C spot out of camp and if he cant then we have O'Brien to replace him.

Free agency wise then we can use that money to get one of:prospal,boyes,morrow,penner
Trade wise: im really not too sure since we would need to find someone with a similar cap hit

what do you guys think?
NO ... Z. Smith is exactly the kind of player we need more of, not less. Pageau doesn't scare anyone & outside of that one series against a very small & soft Montreal team was overwhelmed against a bigger, tougher Pitt team. Pageau couls use another yr in Bingo to get bigger physically in order to deal with NHL players.

I would rather trade a couple of diminitive players to make some room in Conacher, Condra, Da Costa & Petersson to open up a spot or two. However, BM has already said he is done in the UFA market & got what he wanted, a top 6 forward (MacArthur) & a veteran depth defenceman (Corvo). I think he will now wait & go to camp & see how things play out & if any Bingo/prospect players make a huge push to make the team. If they do he will look to make a trade, if they don`t he goes with what he has until around the 20 game mark then make a decision at that time.

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07-13-2013, 01:21 PM
  #366
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NO ... Z. Smith is exactly the kind of player we need more of, not less. Pageau doesn't scare anyone & outside of that one series against a very small & soft Montreal team was overwhelmed against a bigger, tougher Pitt team. Pageau couls use another yr in Bingo to get bigger physically in order to deal with NHL players.
hopefully smith will be back to his 2011-2012 self next season, so he'll actually be intimidating. if he doesn't, then i'd look into trading him. if he does, then he has an important role on this team.

pageau is quite tough. he's not intimidating, but he battles hard and wins against bigger players. he's tenacious, and great on the forecheck. he was not overwhelmed by the pens, he was again one of our best players (along with that entire line). he handled himself physically quite fine in the small sample size we've seen. i not ready to pin him as physically ready, but he's shown too much to be marked as not physically ready. we will have to see where he is next season.

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07-13-2013, 01:21 PM
  #367
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if theres a casino and EM can make money off of that, then he will not worry about the sens making a profit, just as long as they break even and win, to me thats how a casino would help

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07-13-2013, 01:39 PM
  #368
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NO ... Z. Smith is exactly the kind of player we need more of, not less.
Smith is useless. He doesn't score, doesn't kill penalties, doesn't play on the power play and barely plays defence.

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07-13-2013, 01:46 PM
  #369
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Smith is useless. He doesn't score, doesn't kill penalties, doesn't play on the power play and barely plays defence.
Paul Maclean singled him out as being instrumental part of the team... Said he was huge when Spezza went down

He also the only guy not named Spezza to win more then 50% of face offs for us last year... Among guys who took at least 100

It's nice staring with possession

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07-13-2013, 02:06 PM
  #370
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Smith is useless. He doesn't score, doesn't kill penalties, doesn't play on the power play and barely plays defence.
he does score (sixth in forward scoring last season, eighth highest scoring forward in 2011-2012. had 13 goals), he does kill penalties (second most pk minutes for our forwards 2011-2012, didn't play much pk this year because he was already playing more minutes than in 2011-2012 without penalty killing), and as fuhr said, he is our second best face-off man.

as i said though, i thought he was better in 2011-2012. he was more reckless and scored more. still good on the dot, still good defensively, just played less of a shutdown role and more of am energy role. he's better there.

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07-13-2013, 02:38 PM
  #371
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I like Zack Smith but not as much as I did a couple of years ago. I think he's hit a plateau and won't get any better. I'd only move him if something comes back that would help us right now.

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07-13-2013, 02:52 PM
  #372
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he does score (sixth in forward scoring last season, eighth highest scoring forward in 2011-2012. had 13 goals), he does kill penalties (second most pk minutes for our forwards 2011-2012, didn't play much pk this year because he was already playing more minutes than in 2011-2012 without penalty killing), and as fuhr said, he is our second best face-off man.

as i said though, i thought he was better in 2011-2012. he was more reckless and scored more. still good on the dot, still good defensively, just played less of a shutdown role and more of am energy role. he's better there.
Yeah im not sure what's not to like about Smith. He does what he's supposed to when playing within his role and does a decent job at it. He's young, has grit and is signed to a very fair lengthy contract.

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07-13-2013, 03:05 PM
  #373
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Yeah im not sure what's not to like about Smith. He does what he's supposed to when playing within his role and does a decent job at it. He's young, has grit and is signed to a very fair lengthy contract.
I don't mind him but he takes a lot of stupid penalties

But that's the nature of the beast

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07-13-2013, 03:05 PM
  #374
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Originally Posted by Benny FTW View Post
70mil+ cap = huge advantage to big market teams.
I honestly don't see how the cap can possibly go above 70 mil. At that rate, there's maybe 6 teams in the league that can afford to spend to the limit and actually make a profit.

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07-13-2013, 03:35 PM
  #375
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i see smith taking a big step forward this year.

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