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07-10-2013, 02:19 PM
  #26
Gump Hasek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atl thrasher344 View Post
If so, the coach didn't understand the player's place in the food chain either as far as production goes at least. Which was right behind Ladd, Wheeler, Little, and Kane as far as forwards go.
No, not really. Individual production is near moot if one cog in the chain isn't performing as required. I'd almost rather have a competent lesser plug in that spot versus a petulant player that doesn't listen to his coach, a team player in other words. Or, on the other side of that coin, if you are going to have a player that isn't buying into systems play, then his output needs to offset that negative and Burmistrov's did not. His 10 point performance last year is easily replaceable, much more easily replaceable than many here are willing to admit.

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07-10-2013, 02:19 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
Please point to me to one team forum on this site where there aren't dozens of armchair experts who think their coach made "puzzling personnel decisions".

Thank-you.
Not giving your 2nd best faceoff man draws pretty much ever and playing players like Thorburn and Wright on the 2nd line is a special kind of puzzling.

Noel does some odd stuff.

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07-10-2013, 02:19 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
Please point to me to one team forum on this site where there aren't dozens of armchair experts who think their coach made "puzzling personnel decisions".

Thank-you.
Some of Noel's are pretty bad though.
What do they say insanity is again? Constantly re-try the same thing expecting different results... That's essentially the same as being ignorant to what occurred and how players historically perform.
  • Pavelec consistently given back-to-backs, even though Pav's back-to-back's are far historically worse than Montoya's normal
  • Jokinen being given the most TOI centering Kane even though Wellwood, Burmistrov and Antropov were out performing Jokinen AND Kane does/did better with those 3
  • The most common winger with Kane-Jokinen was Miettinen, who was being outperformed by pretty much everyone
  • Moving Buff to RW as a desperation move
  • Keeping Olli at the point for PP even though it wasn't working out and Olli hasn't been a good pointman since his early FLA days (although he is good down low on PP)
  • The Jets wingers playing too high on PP so they couldn't get rebounds since the Jets were trying to mostly do shots from the points
  • Many times giving Slater's or Gagnon's line an offensive zone start after an icing call with the opposition having a tired line out
  • Using Antropov who is not good at FO more than Wellwood who is career wise about equal to Slater
  • Some players went from press-box to 2nd line, and others press-box to 4th line. Just didn't seem any consistency in decision making, sometimes borderline seeing random
  • Promoting Wright and Thorburn (probably the Jets least offensively gifted players (at least Wright is defensively good)) to the 2nd line


Noel has done some solid things. He's reduced this teams shots against and chances against, while improving Jets possession time, all to about league average.
This last season though he had a much stronger roster than the one before and they really didn't make much ground at all. Even a defunct Jokinen still outperformed Stapleton (except in PP but others made up for that).
I've liked somethings Noel has done with how he does offensive zone pushing of some lines, but really this is pretty much starting to occur throughout the entire league... so nothing special really.

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07-10-2013, 02:23 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by viper0220 View Post
I think Burmi was misused both in Atlanta(rushed into the NHL cause they were cheap) and Winnipeg(the Jets did how to use his skills and not enough ice time).
Agreed, definitely.

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07-10-2013, 02:31 PM
  #30
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Kulda was brought back as insurance for injury after his KHL season was done. He will likely go back to the KHL this season and we'll see the same thing happen next spring, barring any personnel changes.

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07-10-2013, 02:32 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
No, not really. Individual production is near moot if one cog in the chain isn't performing as required. I'd almost rather have a competent lesser plug in that spot versus a petulant player that doesn't listen to his coach, a team player in other words. Or, on the other side of that coin, if you are going to have a player that isn't buying into systems play, then his output needs to offset that negative and Burmistrov's did not. His 10 point performance last year is easily replaceable, much more easily replaceable than many here are willing to admit.
But his stick handling into the corners is so great to watch

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07-10-2013, 02:33 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by viper0220 View Post
Could lose our young players if Chevy and especially Noel, don't know how to use them? Could Mark Scheifele, if not given a fair chance to make the big team, just say screw this I am going somewhere? After Alexander Burmistrov left, I hope that trend does not continue but what if it does continue?
Don't jump off the bridge just yet. Burmistrov left. That's one player. One player leaving does not make a trend.

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07-10-2013, 02:34 PM
  #33
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Kane will be next. If this team isn't contending in 3-4 years they're going have to trade him or he's walking as a UFA.

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07-10-2013, 02:36 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by A_wildstabatanything View Post
Kane will be next. If this team isn't contending in 3-4 years they're going have to trade him or he's walking as a UFA.
So we lose Burmistrov this year and we MIGHT lose Kane in 3 to 4 years if the Jets aren't contending. Man, I didn't see it before, but the sky really IS falling.

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07-10-2013, 02:36 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Some of Noel's are pretty bad though.
What do they say insanity is again? Constantly re-try the same thing expecting different results... That's essentially the same as being ignorant to what occurred and how players historically perform.
  • Pavelec consistently given back-to-backs, even though Pav's back-to-back's are far historically worse than Montoya's normal
  • Jokinen being given the most TOI centering Kane even though Wellwood, Burmistrov and Antropov were out performing Jokinen AND Kane does/did better with those 3
  • The most common winger with Kane-Jokinen was Miettinen, who was being outperformed by pretty much everyone
  • Moving Buff to RW as a desperation move
  • Keeping Olli at the point for PP even though it wasn't working out and Olli hasn't been a good pointman since his early FLA days (although he is good down low on PP)
  • The Jets wingers playing too high on PP so they couldn't get rebounds since the Jets were trying to mostly do shots from the points
  • Many times giving Slater's or Gagnon's line an offensive zone start after an icing call with the opposition having a tired line out
  • Using Antropov who is not good at FO more than Wellwood who is career wise about equal to Slater
  • Some players went from press-box to 2nd line, and others press-box to 4th line. Just didn't seem any consistency in decision making, sometimes borderline seeing random
  • Promoting Wright and Thorburn (probably the Jets least offensively gifted players (at least Wright is defensively good)) to the 2nd line


Noel has done some solid things. He's reduced this teams shots against and chances against, while improving Jets possession time, all to about league average.
This last season though he had a much stronger roster than the one before and they really didn't make much ground at all. Even a defunct Jokinen still outperformed Stapleton (except in PP but others made up for that).
I've liked somethings Noel has done with how he does offensive zone pushing of some lines, but really this is pretty much starting to occur throughout the entire league... so nothing special really.
Garret, your analysis so much reminds me of the movie Moneyball where a lower paid team off cast offs excels because they are managed based on statistical analysis of the players strengths rather than based on the gut instincts of the coaches. You would think that what you produce would be readily available to Noel and crew. Sad they don't take advantage of it.

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07-10-2013, 02:37 PM
  #36
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If we just say "oh, it's one player being a bad apple" then we miss the entire point. The bad apple theory is dependent upon an environment that permits it. From everything I have read and heard on here, it does not sound like TNSE permits that type of work environment.

I look at Burmi's benching, the roles he was assigned, and put into context of how Noel used his players overall (and the weight given to vet players even if under- to non-performing) and it tells me that Noel mishandled Burmi. And Chevy too for ending up with the result of a player in Russia who we "own" but doesn't actually contribute anything to the Jets this year on or off the ice.

Wasn't it just six months back that Jets and Ice Caps were raving about Burmi's attitude and effort in St. John's during the lockout. McCambridge essentially said Burmi was great and lack of production was blamed on Spencer Machacek. This assessment was correct so did Burmi just pull a fast one on the Jets because was lusting for the (non) luxury life of the KHL? Seems like the divergent paths were expedited by his dealing with Noel. Not like Chevy had to hire guards to stand outside Burmi's room during the season so how shady was he? Likely not shady at all for a 21 year old millionaire who needs to be communicated to in a different way. Which is, by the way, the coach's job, his paid responsibility , if you will.

I think TNSE has a strong model of developing and enabling maturity and growth in young stars Kane and Bogosian. I surmise Kane can be a bit of a hothead on occasion but he was one of their most professional and marketable players last season by leaps and bounds. Therefore, I don't think the organizational structure set Burmi up to fail and I do not believe Burmi is 100% at fault. So I think alot of heat should be on Noel until he proves otherwise with Scheifele and Trouba.

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07-10-2013, 02:40 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peg View Post
Garret, your analysis so much reminds me of the movie Moneyball where a lower paid team off cast offs excels because they are managed based on statistical analysis of the players strengths rather than based on the gut instincts of the coaches. You would think that what you produce would be readily available to Noel and crew. Sad they don't take advantage of it.
how many World Series did the Athletics win because of that?

oh... wait...

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07-10-2013, 02:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ManOnASilverMountain View Post
But his stick handling into the corners is so great to watch
My favorites were the times when he'd just skate with the puck right into glaringly obvious checking along the boards and as a result would softly cede puck possession to the other team.


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07-10-2013, 02:43 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
My favorites were the times when he'd just skate with the puck right into glaringly obvious checking along the boards and as a result would softly cede puck possession to the other team.

Ya it sucked when that happened to Ladd and Wheeler too...

But thankfully for us all 3 of those guys had it happen so little that the Jets still out possessed/scored/chanced their opponents.

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07-10-2013, 02:45 PM
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I love moneyball. Sign 3 guys because the numbers match and win everything!


Except they don't mention the trio of pitches they had in Hudson,Zito and Mulder. The hitters like Chavez and Tejada. Plus Billy Koch in the bullpen.

Yep All CHad Bradford and Scott Hatteberg!

Sorry for going off topic

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07-10-2013, 02:46 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by peg View Post
Garret, your analysis so much reminds me of the movie Moneyball where a lower paid team off cast offs excels because they are managed based on statistical analysis of the players strengths rather than based on the gut instincts of the coaches. You would think that what you produce would be readily available to Noel and crew. Sad they don't take advantage of it.
Moneyball was all about market inefficiencies and how to exploit them.
A lot of what I do overlaps, but it's more to do with fans observation inefficiencies.
It's more about how we as fans will remember high-profile events that occur 3% of the time but forget the low-profile that occurs for the other 97% (numbers totally made up on spot).

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07-10-2013, 02:50 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by ManOnASilverMountain View Post
how many World Series did the Athletics win because of that?

oh... wait...
They made the playoffs in 2002 and 2003 and stood toe to toe with the Yankees despite payroll being $41 million vs. $125 million. I would call that a wildly successful business model. At least ten other MBL team have subsequently hired full-time Sabremetric analysts, that would diminish the A's monopoly on this advantage.

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07-10-2013, 02:50 PM
  #43
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This team is better off in my own view without a player that does not perform as he is asked. This is also a franchise that publicly stresses they only want players that want to be here, yet for some reason many here are crying over the exit of one that did not; I state that he did not because he chose to leave of his own volition rather than suck it up and follow the requests of his employers. He did the team a favor by leaving. Thanks, Alex.


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07-10-2013, 02:54 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Tintin's Ghost View Post
They made the playoffs in 2002 and 2003 and stood toe to toe with the Yankees despite payroll being $41 million vs. $125 million. I would call that a wildly successful business model. At least ten other MBL team have subsequently hired full-time Sabremetric analysts, that would diminish the A's monopoly on this advantage.
Exactly.

Besides, best teams don't always win. It's a weighted probability, not a destiny. So much involved in just chance, or other variables you have no control over(ex: refs/umpires).

Someone analytically tried to breakdown the best team each season and determined how often the best team won the Stanley Cup... It was somewhere in the 25% range. While their calculations of who actually is the best was probably not perfect, it gives a good impression of something we should keep in the back of your mind.

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07-10-2013, 03:03 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by ManOnASilverMountain View Post
Chase who away?
1 player left.
1 player out of the 23 on the NHL roster has an issue with the coach.
and some even the same age as Burmistrov.

To me, that is way more player then coach.
This it is in a nutshell.

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07-10-2013, 03:03 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
A lot of what I do overlaps, but it's more to do with fans observation inefficiencies.
It's more about how we as fans will remember high-profile events that occur 3% of the time but forget the low-profile that occurs for the other 97% (numbers totally made up on spot).
This is what drives me absolutely crazy. Hainsey has a shot go in off his butt, and he's a horrible player, shouldn't even be in the league. Oduya gives away a couple of passes, and he went through the same thing from fans.

No one seems to remember how lackluster Burmistrov played in the games before his benching. Did he deserve to be benched for 4 games? Probably not, but the Jets won 3 games in a row when he was benched, so why mess with the lineup when they're on a roll? No one seems to remember how many times he gave up the puck trying to make a fancy deke (the same deke he always tries, by the way). They only remember the two times last season it worked (but still didn't lead to a scoring opportunity).

I love watching Burmistrov play when he's trying, but when he's not trying he is infuriating to watch because you can clearly tell the effort isn't there. But why do we need him next season? For his 20 points? No. For his work on the PK? We have forwards that can play the PK - Little, Ladd, Frolik, and Slater are all comparable to Burmistrov on the PK. Even Kane to a lesser extent can kill penalties.

So why is everyone really so upset about Burmistrov leaving? Because it could have been avoided? Maybe. But we don't know how much he signed for in the KHL. I know it's more than he would have received here. So even if he was used "properly" by Noel, how do you know he wouldn't have left anyway for more money in the KHL? You don't.

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07-10-2013, 03:06 PM
  #47
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This is what drives me absolutely crazy. Hainsey has a shot go in off his butt, and he's a horrible player, shouldn't even be in the league. Oduya gives away a couple of passes, and he went through the same thing from fans.

No one seems to remember how lackluster Burmistrov played in the games before his benching. Did he deserve to be benched for 4 games? Probably not, but the Jets won 3 games in a row when he was benched, so why mess with the lineup when they're on a roll? No one seems to remember how many times he gave up the puck trying to make a fancy deke (the same deke he always tries, by the way). They only remember the two times last season it worked (but still didn't lead to a scoring opportunity).

I love watching Burmistrov play when he's trying, but when he's not trying he is infuriating to watch because you can clearly tell the effort isn't there. But why do we need him next season? For his 20 points? No. For his work on the PK? We have forwards that can play the PK - Little, Ladd, Frolik, and Slater are all comparable to Burmistrov on the PK. Even Kane to a lesser extent can kill penalties.

So why is everyone really so upset about Burmistrov leaving? Because it could have been avoided? Maybe. But we don't know how much he signed for in the KHL. I know it's more than he would have received here. So even if he was used "properly" by Noel, how do you know he wouldn't have left anyway for more money in the KHL? You don't.
Excellent post, perfectly stated.

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07-10-2013, 03:13 PM
  #48
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This is what drives me absolutely crazy. Hainsey has a shot go in off his butt, and he's a horrible player, shouldn't even be in the league. Oduya gives away a couple of passes, and he went through the same thing from fans.

No one seems to remember how lackluster Burmistrov played in the games before his benching. Did he deserve to be benched for 4 games? Probably not, but the Jets won 3 games in a row when he was benched, so why mess with the lineup when they're on a roll? No one seems to remember how many times he gave up the puck trying to make a fancy deke (the same deke he always tries, by the way). They only remember the two times last season it worked (but still didn't lead to a scoring opportunity).

I love watching Burmistrov play when he's trying, but when he's not trying he is infuriating to watch because you can clearly tell the effort isn't there. But why do we need him next season? For his 20 points? No. For his work on the PK? We have forwards that can play the PK - Little, Ladd, Frolik, and Slater are all comparable to Burmistrov on the PK. Even Kane to a lesser extent can kill penalties.

So why is everyone really so upset about Burmistrov leaving? Because it could have been avoided? Maybe. But we don't know how much he signed for in the KHL. I know it's more than he would have received here. So even if he was used "properly" by Noel, how do you know he wouldn't have left anyway for more money in the KHL? You don't.
Agree and disagree.

No player out values the team and if they have to be benched so be it. Agreed.
Do we know if Burmistrov could have left regardless? No, so agreed... although his agent did email it was predominately due to "friction" with Noel.

Rest is wrong in my opinion and the results (thus far) have aligned with me.
Burmistrov's effectiveness was the opposite of what you are remembering.

This is only after the benching, but it shows how Burmistrov actually gained the zone quite effectively and the Jets got scoring chances from Burmistrov's entries quite effectively as well:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/...one-entry-data
(it also shows Burmistrov was one of the ones open to dumping the puck more-so than others and was quite effective in it too)

When Burmistrov was on the ice the Jets had more puck possession and a better scoring chance +/- (which correlates to wins more than anything else we know) than any player on the Jets not named Andrew Ladd. On top of that every player in the Jets had a + scoring chance +/- when with Burmistrov, AND it was better than when they were without him.

If Burmi actually lost possession as much as many here state, the results wouldn't end up like this.
It appears you (and others) are making the mistakes in what you are remembering.

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07-10-2013, 03:20 PM
  #49
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After the benching he definitely played under Noels system. But too little too late obviously.

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07-10-2013, 03:23 PM
  #50
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Ya it sucked when that happened to Ladd and Wheeler too...

But thankfully for us all 3 of those guys had it happen so little that the Jets still out possessed/scored/chanced their opponents.
oh the guys that scored nearly 30 goals each?

I will take that production for the occational mishap

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