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Old
07-10-2013, 03:25 PM
  #51
King Woodballs
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Originally Posted by Tintin's Ghost View Post
They made the playoffs in 2002 and 2003 and stood toe to toe with the Yankees despite payroll being $41 million vs. $125 million. I would call that a wildly successful business model. At least ten other MBL team have subsequently hired full-time Sabremetric analysts, that would diminish the A's monopoly on this advantage.
That may be your opinion, but I would rather have a championship.

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07-10-2013, 03:25 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
1 word

Russian

That is all you need to understand. Don't draft them and don't trade for them because you will have to deal with this scenario every time.
Agree

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07-10-2013, 03:26 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
This is only after the benching, but it shows how Burmistrov actually gained the zone quite effectively and the Jets got scoring chances from Burmistrov's entries quite effectively as well:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/...one-entry-data
(it also shows Burmistrov was one of the ones open to dumping the puck more-so than others and was quite effective in it too)

When Burmistrov was on the ice the Jets had more puck possession and a better scoring chance +/- (which correlates to wins more than anything else we know) than any player on the Jets not named Andrew Ladd. On top of that every player in the Jets had a + scoring chance +/- when with Burmistrov, AND it was better than when they were without him.

If Burmi actually lost possession as much as many here state, the results wouldn't end up like this.
It appears you (and others) are making the mistakes in what you are remembering.
If this is all true and he was actually being quite effective when he was on the ice, I really don't understand where all the claims of Noel "mismanaging" him comes from.

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07-10-2013, 03:29 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by ManOnASilverMountain View Post
oh the guys that scored nearly 30 goals each?

I will take that production for the occational mishap
Besides the point

Yes Ladd and Wheeler are more offensively gifted but Burmistrov wasn't a null offensive weapon either.

LLW had a nice sh% this season, and is likely to fall to earth. 2011-12 was more their norm:
Wheeler's ES production in 2011-12 was in 2.0 per 60 mins range when in top6
Ladd's ES production in 2011-12 was in 1.7 per 60 mins range when in top6
Little's ES production in 2011-12 was in 1.5 per 60 mins range when in top6
Burmi's ES production looking at 2011-13 was in 1.6 (1.7 if only 2012-13) per 60 mins range when in top6
All with similar on-ice sh%

I've said it before and I'll say it again.
We highly underestimate what usage (like total time on ice, power play time, and offensive zone starts) and luck (re: sh%) affect production.
Burmistrov was likely the best offensive weapon on Jets after LLLW+Kane, but usage made him more at the team average.

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07-10-2013, 03:29 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
After the benching he definitely played under Noels system. But too little too late obviously.
I agree that his play improved and he earned more icetime and trust from Noel as a result which makes his decision to leave all the more strange. For all the shots Noel is taking right now, he didn't hold Burmie back after Burmie looked to have bought in.

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07-10-2013, 03:30 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Besides the point

Yes Ladd and Wheeler are more offensively gifted but Burmistrov wasn't a null offensive weapon either.

LLW had a nice sh% this season, and is likely to fall to earth. 2011-12 was more their norm:
Wheeler's ES production in 2011-12 was in 2.0 per 60 mins range when in top6
Ladd's ES production in 2011-12 was in 1.7 per 60 mins range when in top6
Little's ES production in 2011-12 was in 1.5 per 60 mins range when in top6
Burmi's ES production looking at 2011-13 was in 1.7 per 60 mins range when in top6
All with similar on-ice sh%
No it's not

Hockey like every other business is a results oriented.

Dont perform? We will find someone else to do it for you

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07-10-2013, 03:31 PM
  #57
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Oy vey.

I'm not concerned. Jeez.

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07-10-2013, 03:32 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ManOnASilverMountain View Post
No it's not

Hockey like every other business is a results oriented.

Dont perform? We will find someone else to do it for you
Still missing point.

Results can be reflective of ability, effort, usage and luck.

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07-10-2013, 03:46 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ManOnASilverMountain View Post
No it's not

Hockey like every other business is a results oriented.

Dont perform? We will find someone else to do it for you
More like:

Don't play the coach's system EXACTLY the way he wants? We will find someone else to do it for you even if the team is more likely to win with you in that role. Oh yeah, the guy replacing you will also be a -19, but that's fine cause he plays exactly the way coach says (but not really).

The way Noel shoe horns some players is really keeping this team back. Isn't the goal of the game to win, not see how many Claude Noel robots can be run out there? At the very least you need to have SOME players with different playing styles.


Last edited by atl thrasher344: 07-10-2013 at 03:55 PM.
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07-10-2013, 03:46 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
This is only after the benching, but it shows how Burmistrov actually gained the zone quite effectively and the Jets got scoring chances from Burmistrov's entries quite effectively as well:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/...one-entry-data
(it also shows Burmistrov was one of the ones open to dumping the puck more-so than others and was quite effective in it too)

When Burmistrov was on the ice the Jets had more puck possession and a better scoring chance +/- (which correlates to wins more than anything else we know) than any player on the Jets not named Andrew Ladd. On top of that every player in the Jets had a + scoring chance +/- when with Burmistrov, AND it was better than when they were without him.

If Burmi actually lost possession as much as many here state, the results wouldn't end up like this.
It appears you (and others) are making the mistakes in what you are remembering.
Is this data based only on 12 games? Games that occurred after Burmistrov was benched? Is there any data similar to this of games before he was benched?

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07-10-2013, 03:52 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by koth View Post
Is this data based only on 12 games? Games that occurred after Burmistrov was benched? Is there any data similar to this of games before he was benched?
For zone entries:
No. Unfortunately not. I didn't run them before hand.
I'm doing the full season this season (and doing scoring chances and zone exits).

For possession and scoring chance differential:
Yes. He was in the top 3 for the team's forwards predominately throughout the entire season.

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07-10-2013, 03:55 PM
  #62
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There's something to be said that Burmistrov isn't bigger than the team and should play at least within the system (and all indications were he did in the later bits).

There's something to be said that a coach isn't always right, just like a boss at work and sometimes should listen to their employees' critiques.

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07-10-2013, 03:59 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Brian Cadle Fan View Post
One is an anomaly

Two is a co-incidence

Three is a trend.

I will start being concerned if we lose 2, I will worry if we lose 3.

In the meantime I will let Noel and Chevy do their jobs.
I can't think of any GM that would let two or three of his own draft picks go early because of an issue with the coach. The coach would be gone long before that.

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07-10-2013, 04:01 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
I agree that his play improved and he earned more icetime and trust from Noel as a result which makes his decision to leave all the more strange. For all the shots Noel is taking right now, he didn't hold Burmie back after Burmie looked to have bought in.
Three problems. First we were in the middle of the playoff hunt. Second out bottom six wingers sucked. Third having Jokinen on the third line would be a bigger mistake than burmi on the third.

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07-10-2013, 04:03 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Besides the point

Yes Ladd and Wheeler are more offensively gifted but Burmistrov wasn't a null offensive weapon either.

LLW had a nice sh% this season, and is likely to fall to earth. 2011-12 was more their norm:
Wheeler's ES production in 2011-12 was in 2.0 per 60 mins range when in top6
Ladd's ES production in 2011-12 was in 1.7 per 60 mins range when in top6
Little's ES production in 2011-12 was in 1.5 per 60 mins range when in top6
Burmi's ES production looking at 2011-13 was in 1.6 (1.7 if only 2012-13) per 60 mins range when in top6
All with similar on-ice sh%

I've said it before and I'll say it again.
We highly underestimate what usage (like total time on ice, power play time, and offensive zone starts) and luck (re: sh%) affect production.
Burmistrov was likely the best offensive weapon on Jets after LLLW+Kane, but usage made him more at the team average.
That's what it looked like on the ice, too....

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Old
07-10-2013, 04:08 PM
  #66
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I've always wondered how so many people talk about luck being a factor in hockey. Because it isn't. Either you get your pass/shot/save/hit or whatever done, or you don't. That has absolutely nothing to do with luck. It depends how well you execute your play.Even if a puck goes in of a defender, that is no luck. That is a defender not getting out of the way/ not blocking the shot.

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07-10-2013, 04:11 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Jay Gatsby View Post
I've always wondered how so many people talk about luck being a factor in hockey. Because it isn't. Either you get your pass/shot/save/hit or whatever done, or you don't. That has absolutely nothing to do with luck. It depends how well you execute your play.Even if a puck goes in of a defender, that is no luck. That is a defender not getting out of the way/ not blocking the shot.
Luck meaning that something that happens that is a low probability to happen again.
Ex: if player A in the exact same position did the same thing 1000 times he may have the same result 3/4 times. The remaining 1/4 is the "lucky" one because it is lower probability of happening. Not like luck as in "fates" or such.

This occurs all the time with %s.
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...3&postcount=78

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07-10-2013, 04:18 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
Three problems. First we were in the middle of the playoff hunt. Second out bottom six wingers sucked. Third having Jokinen on the third line would be a bigger mistake than burmi on the third.
That is the point I was trying to get across outside of the benching Noel really didn't handle him that badly. I also agree that Noel probably thought the net benefit to the team as a whole was better keeping Jokinin and Burmie on the 2nd and third lines respectively. Its Birmistrov who decided to up and leave right when it looks like he got over the hump with Noel!

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07-10-2013, 04:29 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
After the benching he definitely played under Noels system. But too little too late obviously.
I agree that his play improved and he earned more icetime and trust from Noel as a result which makes his decision to leave all the more strange. For all the shots Noel is taking right now, he didn't hold Burmie back after Burmie looked to have bought in.

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07-10-2013, 04:29 PM
  #70
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I don't see young players wanting to leave, but there are those exceptions. People say "players don't want to play in Winnipeg" but 1) that is an argument meant for UFAs, and with RFA now reaching up to what, 27 (?) I don't see it as a big issue, and 2) you build a winning culture and that argument completely goes out the window.

People lumped Winnipeg/Edmonton/Buffalo etc... in the same group in years prior (well Jets 1.0 lets say), Edmonton now has an up-and-coming team and is a very attractive market for players to sign. Buffalo got a new owner and opened up the wallet to attract players, and although it hasn't worked out yet it should pan out in a few years. TNSE is doing the same thing, it just takes time, "its a process" lol.

Russians/Europeans bolting to the KHL like Burmi did obviously is an issue, but Chevy has only drafted 2 non-North Americans in the 3 drafts he participated in, both of which were this year. For all the rumors around Kane, he just wants to win as he stated on Twitter, give him the talent to help him win and he will be happy - no one can do it all on their own. The new CBA pushed RFA back to 27 I believe, which gives us plenty of time to develop our young players. Worst case scenario (Ontario for the Ricky fans out there), a player holds out and we trade his rights for something, or else he bolts to the KHL - which shouldn't happen given Chevy's draft history. I have no worries about losing our young players.

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07-10-2013, 04:34 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Shakey Rustie View Post
I The new CBA pushed RFA back to 27 I believe, which gives us plenty of time to develop our young players.
The 2005 CBA reduced UFA time from 31 years old to 27 years old OR 7 years service (with some exceptions for minor league players). This has not changed in the 2013 CBA.

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07-10-2013, 04:45 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
I agree that his play improved and he earned more icetime and trust from Noel as a result which makes his decision to leave all the more strange. For all the shots Noel is taking right now, he didn't hold Burmie back after Burmie looked to have bought in.
Bingo, excellent post. He did what was asked, and was rewarded with ice in lots of key situations.

In other words, the Jets didn't give up on him. With all of the posts I have been reading, it is like people think Noel and Chevy said "hey Burmi, take off...we don't want you here". Burmi was looking for a lot of money, and I think the KHL was always on the table. I believe that the agent saying the KHL was not an option was meant to solicit more money from the KHL than anyone in the NHL would be prepared to pay him.

I think it worked exactly as they wanted, and Burmi is going to make some really good dough for a 21 year old to play at home. If he lights it up, he will have opportunity for really good money on either side of the pond...really not sure why the Jets are getting hammered so much over this, I think they played it just fine for now.

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07-10-2013, 04:45 PM
  #73
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Are people forgetting that the Jets were leading the division with 4-5 weeks left in the season? Or the fact that as late as game 47 still had the chance to clinch said division? Or weren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs until midway through game 48? (If the Rangers lost their last two, the Jets were in)

I read a thread like this or the free agency threads and it seems to me no one quite knows what they want. Everybody has pipe dreams about making a big free agent splash (I wanted Derek Roy), or all our high picks to jump right in and dominate. It doesn't work like that and for a middling team you have to choose. Forsake wins and concentrate on development, or contend? I'm sure the roster players would rather push for the playoffs every year rather than fold and play prospects who may or may not work out and finish 28th. We all know 28th place teams attract all the best free agents.

So what do we do? Fold while we're in contention because Kulda or Trouba needs NHL minutes? Pull Scheifele away from quality playoff time in junior? Bench the vet with 700 career points in favor of the 20 year old with potential? I don't doubt that Trouba will be better than Meech, but you're comparing a guy with 40 some college games versus a guy that has 140 some NHL games. Or a guy with 60 career points with a guy that had 60 the year before. C'mon. While the advanced stats may not lie, all that experience does tend to count for something. I don't really like Noel, and won't miss him if he does get turfed, but it's hard to fault some of these decisions.

So what do we want here?

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07-10-2013, 04:49 PM
  #74
Shakey Rustie
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Originally Posted by Mighty Joe Moon View Post
Are people forgetting that the Jets were leading the division with 4-5 weeks left in the season? Or the fact that as late as game 47 still had the chance to clinch said division? Or weren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs until midway through game 48? (If the Rangers lost their last two, the Jets were in)

I read a thread like this or the free agency threads and it seems to me no one quite knows what they want. Everybody has pipe dreams about making a big free agent splash (I wanted Derek Roy), or all our high picks to jump right in and dominate. It doesn't work like that and for a middling team you have to choose. Forsake wins and concentrate on development, or contend? I'm sure the roster players would rather push for the playoffs every year rather than fold and play prospects who may or may not work out and finish 28th. We all know 28th place teams attract all the best free agents.

So what do we do? Fold while we're in contention because Kulda or Trouba needs NHL minutes? Pull Scheifele away from quality playoff time in junior? Bench the vet with 700 career points in favor of the 20 year old with potential? I don't doubt that Trouba will be better than Meech, but you're comparing a guy with 40 some college games versus a guy that has 140 some NHL games. Or a guy with 60 career points with a guy that had 60 the year before. C'mon. While the advanced stats may not lie, all that experience does tend to count for something. I don't really like Noel, and won't miss him if he does get turfed, but it's hard to fault some of these decisions.

So what do we want here?
To be fair, our new division on paper looks a lot more difficult than the SE did. But I agree, we don't need to hit the panic button.

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07-10-2013, 05:04 PM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mighty Joe Moon View Post
Are people forgetting that the Jets were leading the division with 4-5 weeks left in the season? Or the fact that as late as game 47 still had the chance to clinch said division? Or weren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs until midway through game 48? (If the Rangers lost their last two, the Jets were in)

I read a thread like this or the free agency threads and it seems to me no one quite knows what they want. Everybody has pipe dreams about making a big free agent splash (I wanted Derek Roy), or all our high picks to jump right in and dominate. It doesn't work like that and for a middling team you have to choose. Forsake wins and concentrate on development, or contend? I'm sure the roster players would rather push for the playoffs every year rather than fold and play prospects who may or may not work out and finish 28th. We all know 28th place teams attract all the best free agents.

So what do we do? Fold while we're in contention because Kulda or Trouba needs NHL minutes? Pull Scheifele away from quality playoff time in junior? Bench the vet with 700 career points in favor of the 20 year old with potential? I don't doubt that Trouba will be better than Meech, but you're comparing a guy with 40 some college games versus a guy that has 140 some NHL games. Or a guy with 60 career points with a guy that had 60 the year before. C'mon. While the advanced stats may not lie, all that experience does tend to count for something. I don't really like Noel, and won't miss him if he does get turfed, but it's hard to fault some of these decisions.

So what do we want here?
Excellent post.
It seems a lot of folks here ludicrously expect clairvoyance from Noel.

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