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Old
07-10-2013, 09:08 PM
  #101
angrymnky
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Originally Posted by Bartho View Post
Have you honestly never heard of a player/fan referring to a season as a year? Here's an example: "Next year the team will be better"
What are you talking about? We've had two seasons and jcc only wants to count the first one.

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07-10-2013, 09:08 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Duke89 View Post
The point, very surprisingly, went over your head. The point is this team has had more then a year and a half.
OK you win Duke, 1.61 seasons or whatever the calculation is based on the number of games played.

But your 3 drafts comment still makes me chuckle

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07-10-2013, 09:08 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
The only full season to compare is the first season in Winnipeg when we had 84 points which was more than the previous 4 seasons in Atlanta (marginally).

We can split hairs all night. My point is our players were still not good enough to make us a playoff team. Here's hoping that changes this coming season. Oh, but wait, Noel is still the coach. So much for that
Lame duck extension is lame duck extension.


I would say the best way to evaluate Noel is how the Jets didn't really improve much (and even regressed in some areas) between seasons 1 and 2 even though the roster was stronger.

1st to 2nd season for 5v5 time:
Down 4 places in shots for from 11th to 15th in league
Down 6 places in shots against from 11th to 17th in league
Down 5 places in possession from 11th to 16th in league

1st to 2nd season for 5v4 time:
Down 1 place in shots for from 21st to 22nd

1st to 2nd season for 4v5 time:
Up 5 places in shots against from 20th to 15th


While player skill is the major factor in these measurements, these are the areas where coaching and system effects a team the most... and as we said, the roster was still stronger than the previous season.

Not damning evidence but still makes me skeptical and keeping an eye for the future.

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07-10-2013, 09:08 PM
  #104
atl thrasher344
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
The only full season to compare is the first season in Winnipeg when we had 84 points which was more than the previous 4 seasons in Atlanta (marginally).

We can split hairs all night. My point is our players were still not good enough to make us a playoff team. Here's hoping that changes this coming season. Oh, but wait, Noel is still the coach. So much for that
We also had our worst road record since the franchise's expansion days last year. But yeah, thats due to the roster even though it was mostly the same roster as the year before with many players improving.

But Noel was a first year coach! So was Ramsay. Imo Noel hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt for anything.

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07-10-2013, 09:14 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by atl thrasher344 View Post
We also had our worst road record since the franchise's expansion days last year. But yeah, thats due to the roster even though it was mostly the same roster as the year before with many players improving.

But Noel was a first year coach! So was Ramsay. Imo Noel hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt for anything.
I stand by my comment that a clone of Scotty Bowman in his prime would not have gotten the Jets to the playoffs.

Speaking of Bowman - anyone remember his amazing run in Montreal in the 70's? How did he do that? He had the best ***damned roster of players. Coincidence? I think not.

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07-10-2013, 09:17 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
I stand by my comment that a clone of Scotty Bowman in his prime would not have gotten the Jets to the playoffs.

Speaking of Bowman - anyone remember his amazing run in Montreal in the 70's? How did he do that? He had the best ***damned roster of players. Coincidence? I think not.
The Jets were basically into the race until the final period.

If you don't think Scotty Bowman or any other coach could not have improved that one little push (all other things being equal) then either Noel is the best coach in the league or coaches can not affect the team.

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07-10-2013, 09:19 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
The Jets were basically into the race until the final period.

If you don't think Scotty Bowman or any other coach could not have improved that one little push (all other things being equal) then either Noel is the best coach in the league or coaches can not affect the team.
Now you are just being silly G9.

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07-10-2013, 09:22 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
OK you win Duke, 1.61 seasons or whatever the calculation is based on the number of games played.

But your 3 drafts comment still makes me chuckle
We've had two seasons since the move, just like every other mother ****ing team in the league. You don't see them making excuses for a shortened season. It was an even playing field. You're just making excuses for all parties involved and don't want to hold anyone responsible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
The Jets were basically into the race until the final period.

If you don't think Scotty Bowman or any other coach could not have improved that one little push (all other things being equal) then either Noel is the best coach in the league or coaches can not affect the team.
Clealry Noel is THE BEST COACH EVAR!!!

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07-10-2013, 09:23 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
Now you are just being silly G9.
That is essentially what your comment is saying though...

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07-10-2013, 09:29 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by atl thrasher344 View Post
We also had our worst road record since the franchise's expansion days last year. But yeah, thats due to the roster even though it was mostly the same roster as the year before with many players improving.

But Noel was a first year coach! So was Ramsay. Imo Noel hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt for anything.
I am not sure Noel is going to get it done......feel the same about Rammer. To me neither of them appear to be NHL head coach's. I think both of them make solid assistants though.

Hope I am wrong about Claude.

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07-10-2013, 09:30 PM
  #111
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Let's just take one choice that has been in question here... Pavelec and back-to-backs...

Pavelec's B2B SV% is historically 0.870, so coaching staff should know what they are likely getting into when they make the decision.
Pavelec performed similarly to historical norm posting a 0.882 in the second game of B2Bs.
Montoya's historical career SV% was 0.906 (1 higher than Pavelec performed this season).

Let's talk very hypothetically and ignore any butterfly effects.
You place in Montoya in the second game of B2Bs. Pavelec faced 203 shots against in those games, making 179 saves and allowing 24 goals against. Montoya would likely have saved around 184-187 of those shots, if he gave career normal performances, improving the Jets by 5-8 goals against. On average that is an improvement of 1-2 wins although I'm too lazy to look at every individual game.

On top of this, Pavelec would then have better rest for his other games played. If you adjust those to Pavelec's norm then you end up saving the Jets approximately 7-10 more goals.

In total this adjusts the Jets goal differential approximately by 12-18 goals (all other things being equal), which on average equals 2-4ish wins.
On top of this there is psychological effects of perhaps the Jets playing better with more confidence in their goaltending, falling behind less often, etc. etc.

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07-10-2013, 09:34 PM
  #112
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g9: good back of the napkin analysis. That could have easily accounted for 2-4 more wins and a potential playoff spot, especially if one of those wins came against someone they were battling for a playoff spot against.

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07-10-2013, 10:02 PM
  #113
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I think at the the root of this thread is a concern that Jets are losing talent due to a guy who will more than likely not be around in 2 years.

Consensus thinking is that Jets were not good enough last two years to make playoffs then Noel should take advantage of the occasional opportunity to put a young guy into a position to succeed to build the team into what he and TNSE desire in 1-2 years time. Not saying play a prospect no matter...big difference there. But if Chevy has stated that going to build internally via draft and current young stable then why alienate a player because he does not perform exactly like 31-year-old professional checking center. There is something to suggest that Chevy and Noel are not on the same page.

Noel gets treated leniently from because he is incredibly accessible for the old school media types and has positioned himself as the team spokesperson. His actions will speak louder than his folksy words. If he's running the right program for these guys then he'll produce results and shut a lot of people up. If he continues to be a main driver of player turnover then Duthie and Ward will be polishing up his seat on the TSN panel.

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07-10-2013, 10:08 PM
  #114
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Why are you guys arguing so much?

Can't we all just agree that it is a good thing that a player that clearly didn't want to be on the Jets has now left the island, and move on?


Best of luck to him elsewhere!

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07-10-2013, 10:13 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Why are you guys arguing so much?

Can't we all just agree that it is a good thing that a player that clearly didn't want to be on the Jets has now left the island, and move on?


Best of luck to him elsewhere!
^quoted for truth^

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07-10-2013, 10:18 PM
  #116
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I really enjoy that people ignore g9's statistical analysis, which from what I can ascertain is much more grounded in reality than ridiculous arguments about Scotty Bowman. Those statistics are much more "facts" than the eye witness accounts of "arm chair GM's" (as those those that have nothing to back up their claims like to refer to people who put some stock into those numbers as). Take them with a grain of salt but probability and statistics are not a myth.

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07-10-2013, 10:42 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by almostawake View Post
If they were taking advantage of it we'd never know.

A number of NHL teams are employing quantitative analysts these days. But things like Corsi are not really that useful in the types of decisions GMs are faced with.

To be really blunt, stuff like Corsi, basically stuff that re-blends NHL-collected statistics is really not the kind of stuff you get away with when you're being paid to do analytics. Stuff like that gets used because it is something that people who do it as a hobby can easily calculate with the time they devote to their hobby. When you're getting paid to do analytics full time you have to be a lot more creative. In hockey that means you spend a lot of time creating new data that allows you to better measure the processes lead to outcomes. Garret's zone entry stuff is a good example of that. But at the NHL level it is something that they're not just doing for a 12 game sample, they have every game done, with additional annotation, etc.
Here is a tweet from Dan Tencer, radio host in Edmonton for the Oilers, listing a quote that MacT gave after acquiring David Perron today.

Quote:
MacTavish on specific analytics re: Perron: "He's right up there with controlling the play and shots for and against differential."

Shots for and against differential = Corsi.

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07-10-2013, 11:22 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
That is the point I was trying to get across outside of the benching Noel really didn't handle him that badly. I also agree that Noel probably thought the net benefit to the team as a whole was better keeping Jokinin and Burmie on the 2nd and third lines respectively. Its Birmistrov who decided to up and leave right when it looks like he got over the hump with Noel!
My thoughts exactly. Burmi's positive contribution to the 2nd line would not be enough to offset the negative contribution that Jokinen would have contributed to the 3rd line. It was better the way it ended up. Kane was a one-man line, and the Burmi-Tanger-Santa line was inspirational, if not productive.

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07-10-2013, 11:29 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by boanst View Post
My thoughts exactly. Burmi's positive contribution to the 2nd line would not be enough to offset the negative contribution that Jokinen would have contributed to the 3rd line. It was better the way it ended up. Kane was a one-man line, and the Burmi-Tanger-Santa line was inspirational, if not productive.
I do not care Burmi is leaving the Jets (no loss) but I would love to see Burmi on Battle of the Blades.

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07-10-2013, 11:33 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by ManOnASilverMountain View Post
That may be your opinion, but I would rather have a championship.
I don't get what your argument is here or how its related to the Jets. The point was that the A's used statistical analysis to help them overcome inefficiencies that they could not solve by throwing money at it. A championship would be great, sure, but those A's at least had a chance to win it; something that a number of teams with payrolls double what they employed failed to do.

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07-10-2013, 11:34 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by atl thrasher344 View Post
Since Atlanta, so many players on this team have improved, some very significantly. Then why is it that the team's performance has only improved marginally in that time? If you the roster dictates performance that much, why did a team with significantly less of a roster do pretty much the same?
Welly, Antro, Joki, Tangradi, Wright, Meittenen, Thorburn, Gagnon, Poni, Peluso, Meech, Santorelli, and 2 rookie Dmen in Postma and Redmond. That's why.

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07-10-2013, 11:41 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Shakey Rustie View Post
I don't see young players wanting to leave, but there are those exceptions. People say "players don't want to play in Winnipeg" but 1) that is an argument meant for UFAs, and with RFA now reaching up to what, 27 (?) I don't see it as a big issue, and 2) you build a winning culture and that argument completely goes out the window.

People lumped Winnipeg/Edmonton/Buffalo etc... in the same group in years prior (well Jets 1.0 lets say), Edmonton now has an up-and-coming team and is a very attractive market for players to sign. Buffalo got a new owner and opened up the wallet to attract players, and although it hasn't worked out yet it should pan out in a few years. TNSE is doing the same thing, it just takes time, "its a process" lol.

Russians/Europeans bolting to the KHL like Burmi did obviously is an issue, but Chevy has only drafted 2 non-North Americans in the 3 drafts he participated in, both of which were this year. For all the rumors around Kane, he just wants to win as he stated on Twitter, give him the talent to help him win and he will be happy - no one can do it all on their own. The new CBA pushed RFA back to 27 I believe, which gives us plenty of time to develop our young players. Worst case scenario (Ontario for the Ricky fans out there), a player holds out and we trade his rights for something, or else he bolts to the KHL - which shouldn't happen given Chevy's draft history. I have no worries about losing our young players.
I honestly think that many players look at how "cosmopolitan" a city is as a major factor. It wouldn't seem like a factor to many of us who don't travel like crazy, but these guys have gotten a chance to see the North American world, and they have a good idea of what is out there. Winnipeg is isolated as crazy, and Buffalo is like the old fogey living above a really great party. I've only heard, but I've heard that the travel to get out of Edmonton is a nightmare; enough for visting players to make a decision.

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07-10-2013, 11:45 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by TCsmyth View Post
He did what was asked, and was rewarded with ice in lots of key situations.
In other words, the Jets didn't give up on him. With all of the posts I have been reading, it is like people think Noel and Chevy said "hey Burmi, take off...we don't want you here". Burmi was looking for a lot of money, and I think the KHL was always on the table. I believe that the agent saying the KHL was not an option was meant to solicit more money from the KHL than anyone in the NHL would be prepared to pay him.
I think it worked exactly as they wanted, and Burmi is going to make some really good dough for a 21 year old to play at home. If he lights it up, he will have opportunity for really good money on either side of the pond...really not sure why the Jets are getting hammered so much over this, I think they played it just fine for now.
I think you have got the Burmi situation right, TCsmyth. It comes down to money, status, playing time and...happiness for a struggling 21 year old. In the end, these were all better in Russia for Burmi.
Blaming Noel is way too simplistic in this situation. I have no doubt that he and Chevy talked extensively about Burmi's worth to the team and value going forward, and decided TOGETHER not to get sucked in to a bidding war. It was the right decision, though the outcome was clearly frustrating to Chevy.
Was Burmi managed optimally by Noel? Probably not. Did that affect his offensive production materially? Probably not.
Is Noel a great coach? Maybe not, certainly not perfect. Is he responsible for Burmi leaving? No way.
Can you extrapolate this situation to any of our other star players going forward. Absolutely not.

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07-10-2013, 11:50 PM
  #124
meedle
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Originally Posted by boanst View Post
My thoughts exactly. Burmi's positive contribution to the 2nd line would not be enough to offset the negative contribution that Jokinen would have contributed to the 3rd line. It was better the way it ended up. Kane was a one-man line, and the Burmi-Tanger-Santa line was inspirational, if not productive.
My only question to that is, why was he not out there with Kane when the Jets were behind by 1 goal with 3 min to play? I'm sure there is multiple games you can attribute that to. We all can agree he was more productive than Joker on the 2nd line.

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07-10-2013, 11:52 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by meedle View Post
Remember when Joker was on the point on the PP and the fans basically booed pretty hard cause the pp sucked (this was after a few games of utter fail). Someone can correct me but I think at the time some guy leaned over the glass behind the bench and yelled something to one of the coaches/players. After that, that was the last time we saw Joker on the PP point.

So ya, I think the fans do have a better grasp than Noel
I think your wrong man, so wrong. I'm sure Noel disregarded that dude and kept Jokinen in that that spot for a bit longer. It felt like the whole damn season.

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