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Zidlicky Value

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Old
06-15-2005, 05:00 AM
  #26
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Toivonen's value > 1st round pick

Zidlickly's value ~ 2nd round pick

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06-15-2005, 06:07 AM
  #27
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Like nuckfan I'm not even sure Zidlicky could fetch a second round pick considering the bunch of D which will be available when the NHL will be back.

One thing is for sure, Zidlicky is closer of what an Andy Delmore fetched (third round picks) than what a Toivonen could fetch if traded. Toivonen and Zidlicky are not in the same class in term of trade value, really.

Would I trade Zidlicky for Delmore and a second round pick ? Very possible, Delmore would just be a wild card in the deal.

Would I trade Toivonen for Zidlicky and a second round pick ? Hell no, I wouldn't even think about it. It would start with either a top-prospect or a first round pick to make me think about trading Toivonen.


Last edited by Sykie: 06-15-2005 at 06:35 AM. Reason: correct my poor english
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06-15-2005, 07:29 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sykie
One thing is for sure, Zidlicky is closer of what an Andy Delmore fetched (third round picks) than what a Toivonen could fetch if traded. Toivonen and Zidlicky are not in the same class in term of trade value, really.
That's not the debate, is it? I thought it was that Zidlicky's value was closer to Delmore's current value of nothing, not Delmore's past value of a 3rd rounder. Of course Zids value is closer to that of a high third rounder than Toivonen. No one on here is arguing that. We just think he's closer to the value of Toivonen than someone who currently has little to no value (Delmore).

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06-15-2005, 08:58 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nomorekids
TO, I respect you as a poster...and usually we agree on a lot of things...but I'm starting to wonder how much of Zidlicky you've seen. His offensive ability is beyond even Sopel's comprehension. I said this before...and I did mean it\am saying it again...Zidlicky's offensive toolsare EASILY in the top 5. I don't think I have too horrible of a reputation as a homer, and I know Smokey doesn't....but Zidlicky has quite a bit more value than someone like Sopel, even at this point. By December or January of this next season...I think there will be even greater evidence.
well I guess we'll have to disagree on this.

I'm assuming I've seen as much of Zidlicky as you have of Sopel... well maybe less considering that I've only seen Zidlicky in the NHL for 1 season, whereas Sopel's been around for a few.

What I've noticed is - Zidlicky is on the top unit of the PP there, and runs it pretty well. Most of his icetime though is on the PP. He doesn't usually get tough minutes otherwise, against the top competition from other teams.

Sopel - he gets 2nd unit PP time for the most part, because of Jovo on the 1st unit. But he runs that unit well - without the big 3 on it. He did manage to get 42 pts in that role though - playing the 2nd unit PP, and playing his ES minutes on the top shutdown unit - again without the top offensive forwards with him - and his top responsibility being that of checking the top opposition's unit... his +/- isn't helped by Vancouver's offense, because he rarely plays with the top line in ES situations... in fact if anything his +/- is hurt by the fact that his ES minutes are always in a defensive role, against the opposition's top forwards.

Sopel's offense is never questioned. He has a solid outlet pass, a good read on the PP, and a good shot from the point. His defense has been questioned over the past, but it's hardly fair to compare his workload on the top shutdown unit with that of Zidlicky who doesn't get matched up against top opposition every game.

But other than that, I guess I just don't jump on player bandwagons that quickly... Zidlicky is getting all the praise that Sopel got after his first season in the NHL ... the same that Tarnstrom got after his first breakout year in the NHL. The same that we saw with Boyle a couple years ago.... and there are many other dmen as well that have gone through that same high end praise before falling down to earth after being judged on more than just one season of work.... I need to see Zidlicky prove this over time, and WC performances for a dman like him on the big ice surface just isn't as good a reference as the overall dman he is at the NHL level... would anyone consider Zidlicky a better overall dman than Jovo or Regher? Zidlicky outplayed both these guys in the WC, yet I doubt anyone would consider Zidlicky the better dman.

He may prove me wrong after another strong season, and if he improves defensively overall as well... if his team gives him the minutes to play against tougher competition, and rely on him on 5 on 5 situations as well. He may come back strong again next season offensively too.

But at this point, he has 1 NHL season under his belt, and the praise he's getting is no different than what many other offensive dmen have been getting after their initial impact season in the league (hell even Delmore got it before he folded!). Once the rest of the league though gets a better read on these players, most of them do fall back down to earth. We'll just have to see if Zidlicky continues his play, or does in fact fall back down to earth, much like most of the other offensive dmen in the NHL have over the years.

But at this point, it's really not fair to say that Zidlicky is any better than these guys, considering that those other dmen all were given the same praise if we just take one season from each of them... let's see what Zidlicky can actually do over time - after the rest of the league has taken notice of him and will play him much tougher next time around - before we hail him a top 5 offensive dman in the league overall.

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06-15-2005, 09:01 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
That's not the debate, is it? I thought it was that Zidlicky's value was closer to Delmore's current value of nothing, not Delmore's past value of a 3rd rounder. Of course Zids value is closer to that of a high third rounder than Toivonen. No one on here is arguing that. We just think he's closer to the value of Toivonen than someone who currently has little to no value (Delmore).
everything has to do with the market right now, not his skill level.

Naslund's value is a 2nd round comp. pick right now, not because of the player he is... Sykora's value is low right now too, because a right winger like him can be had on the UFA market considering the options (Kovalev, Murray, Demitra, Palffy, etc)... doesn't mean he's not a good player.

Zidlicky's value is a product of the overall market situation. A market that has many dmen available. After this situation passes, then his value can be reevaluated... but *right now* his value is very low because of the options that other teams have.

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06-15-2005, 11:17 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuckfan in TO
everything has to do with the market right now, not his skill level.

Naslund's value is a 2nd round comp. pick right now, not because of the player he is... Sykora's value is low right now too, because a right winger like him can be had on the UFA market considering the options (Kovalev, Murray, Demitra, Palffy, etc)... doesn't mean he's not a good player.

Zidlicky's value is a product of the overall market situation. A market that has many dmen available. After this situation passes, then his value can be reevaluated... but *right now* his value is very low because of the options that other teams have.
These player's values are lower in large part due to the salaries they will command. Not everyone has the cap space to throw 5+ million at Naslund. Besides, how do you know the value of Naslund? You have nothing to base any of this on. The Zidlicky trade value is based in large part on the past and while that isn't exactly as relevant today as it was two years ago, it's more relevant that just making stuff up based on what you think/hope will happen when the NHL resumes. Predicting Zids value the way you are is a huge guess. How many offensive Dmen of Zids level talents are available? How many are actually his talent level and not 'poor man's Zids' like Sopel? How many are available for around 1.1 million a year.? You'd have to be able to answer these questions accurately to have a good sense of his value (doing it the way you are doing). You must have a ton of insight into this developing situation. Besides, value is very misleading. All it takes is for one team to fall in love with Zids over others and his value shoots up.

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06-15-2005, 12:40 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
These player's values are lower in large part due to the salaries they will command. Not everyone has the cap space to throw 5+ million at Naslund. Besides, how do you know the value of Naslund? You have nothing to base any of this on. The Zidlicky trade value is based in large part on the past and while that isn't exactly as relevant today as it was two years ago, it's more relevant that just making stuff up based on what you think/hope will happen when the NHL resumes. Predicting Zids value the way you are is a huge guess. How many offensive Dmen of Zids level talents are available? How many are actually his talent level and not 'poor man's Zids' like Sopel? How many are available for around 1.1 million a year.? You'd have to be able to answer these questions accurately to have a good sense of his value (doing it the way you are doing). You must have a ton of insight into this developing situation. Besides, value is very misleading. All it takes is for one team to fall in love with Zids over others and his value shoots up.
I don't feel the need to have to answer those questions, because I don't agree with you from the start... like calling Sopel a poor man's Zidlicky... Sopel's more proven, on a better team, in a bigger role, playing tougher minutes. And he's actually proven all this at this level, unlike Zidlicky who's had one NHL season under his belt, and hasn't played the minutes that Sopel has, against the competition that Sopel plays every game.

Put him in the same role, and it's a guess - at best - to say that he's even as good, since he hasn't yet proven it.

And yes, it is a guess to see the market as it is, but all trades are made on such guesses, and trade values are given because of this.

We can run through the same exercise we did with Riberio a while back - take the number of teams in the NHL that would have a need for Zidlicky, and see how much they'd be willing to pay. See if these teams would have any interest right now - given the UFA situation. And that's a closer guess to what Zidlicky's value *right now* is than using comparable trades done a year or two ago.

Anyways, we'll just have to agree to disagree here... if Zidlicky comes back next season, puts up those number again, while playing in a bigger defensive role for his team, then I'll give some merit to calling Sopel a poor man's Zidlicky... but right now one is proven under tough competition, while the other has 1 NHL season under his belt, and didn't get much time against top opposition at all.

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06-15-2005, 12:57 PM
  #33
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Agreed. You clearly don't hold Zidlicky in the regard that I hold him (or you REALLY like Sopel), which makes coming to any understanding on this unreasonable. Agreeing to disagree is the best option as we'll just run each other into the ground on this.

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06-15-2005, 02:46 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
Agreed. You clearly don't hold Zidlicky in the regard that I hold him (or you REALLY like Sopel), which makes coming to any understanding on this unreasonable. Agreeing to disagree is the best option as we'll just run each other into the ground on this.
well I don't really like Sopel that much... just acknowledge the contribution he's given our team moreso than most canuck fans are willing to.... I don't hold him in any higher regard than I hold Zidlicky overall, especially in terms of trade value... Sopel couldn't come close to fetching us Raycroft or Toivonen... and considering the UFA d-market, his value is also a lot closer to Delmore's than it is to Raycroft or Toivonen.

I'm just trying to be impartial in terms of what each player's trade value is right now.

As far as the game on the ice, Sopel has proven everything that Zidlicky has as well early in his career - where Zidlicky is now... Sopel did do it at a younger age, and he does - which isn't even up for debate - play tough minutes in Vancouver, both defensively (considering he's on the top defensive unit), and offensively (where he doesn't get #1 PP time, or get to play offensive situations with the team's top trio of Naslund, Bert or Morrison).

Those are all facts... still, his actual trade value right now can't be that high considering the market overall.

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06-15-2005, 03:47 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
That's not the debate, is it? I thought it was that Zidlicky's value was closer to Delmore's current value of nothing, not Delmore's past value of a 3rd rounder. Of course Zids value is closer to that of a high third rounder than Toivonen. No one on here is arguing that. We just think he's closer to the value of Toivonen than someone who currently has little to no value (Delmore).
I guess when Delmore's name was brought up, some guys still had this third rounder value in their head. And even if Delmore's value is even lower now, I can still see the point, that's what I explained in the second part of my message.

Let's take a simple example.

Right now, I think I could trade Zidlicky if offered up a second round pick and Andy Delmore. I would see Delmore as a wild card, a PP specialist if my team needs one. On the other hand I would never, ever trade Toivonen for Zidlicky and a second rounder. No way. Again, it would take either a top-prospect or a first rounder to make me think about trading a guy like Hannu Toivonen.

What does that mean ? As for as I'm concerned (and I'm pretty sure lots of GM would see things like me), Zidlicky is closer of a Delmore than a Toivonen...

Sure, you can argue either way, it's just an opinion, but you can definitly make that case.


Last edited by Sykie: 06-15-2005 at 03:56 PM. Reason: some corrections, I'm not an english speaking guy
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06-15-2005, 07:15 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuckfan in TO
And Zidlicky isn't all that special... he's a nice offensive dmen that can put up points... so can Sopel, and his value isn't any higher right now either... Sopel's proven he can carry a PP, and is a solid offensive dman over all... his defense is no worse than Zidlicky's either, considering he does play against the toughest competition every night.
Not trying to enter back into this debate, but I think it is lost on people that this was Zidlicky's first ever season in North America. Sure he didn't play too many 'tough' minutes, but he wasn't in a position to. Our top Dman, Timonen, needs a more stay-at-home partner. So Zids would never see top line duty and, on the Preds, neither would Sopel. Zids bounced between the second and third pairings, but with the stellar play of Dan Hamhuis, we needed a more stable, experienced defensive partner to help Hammer, and we had that in York. So Zids found a consistent home on the third pairing even though his partner changed frequently (Bombardir, Schnabel, Hnidy, Allison).

Because this was Zids first ever North American season, I don't see any reason why he can't have an increased role with increased production. Comparing his numbers and ice time directly with Sopel's is misleading. While Sopel is only a month older, he has had 3 full seasons worth of experience over Zids. While I think you can reasonably project Sopel's point totals to stay around where they are now (maybe slightly higher/lower), it's not unreasonable to think that Zidlicky's might jump impressively, especially if he's given an increased even strength role (he'll get even more points if our PP forwards ever match the prowess of our point men).

I wouldn't be suprised to see a lot of those miscellaneous ES minutes given to bottom pairing/borderline AHLers like Hnidy and Allison start going Zids way. Especially as he shows he can handle the rigors of a full 82 game schedule, which is almost twice what he was used to.

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06-15-2005, 07:22 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sykie
Right now, I think I could trade Zidlicky if offered up a second round pick and Andy Delmore. I would see Delmore as a wild card, a PP specialist if my team needs one. On the other hand I would never, ever trade Toivonen for Zidlicky and a second rounder. No way. Again, it would take either a top-prospect or a first rounder to make me think about trading a guy like Hannu Toivonen.

What does that mean ? As for as I'm concerned (and I'm pretty sure lots of GM would see things like me), Zidlicky is closer of a Delmore than a Toivonen...
So you are telling me that the difference between a first round pick (your stated value of Toivonen) and a 2nd round pick (your stated value of Zidlicky) is greater than the difference between a 2nd round pick (your stated value of Zidlicky) and a 9th rounder (the implied value of Delmore). I don't agree with this. I can understand if you just don't feel Zids is worth a 2nd rounder, but not the way you put it.

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06-16-2005, 04:48 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
So you are telling me that the difference between a first round pick (your stated value of Toivonen) and a 2nd round pick (your stated value of Zidlicky) is greater than the difference between a 2nd round pick (your stated value of Zidlicky) and a 9th rounder (the implied value of Delmore). I don't agree with this. I can understand if you just don't feel Zids is worth a 2nd rounder, but not the way you put it.
Fair enough.

I think I would trade Zidlicky for a second round pick considering the situation and all. On the other hand I wouldn't trade Toivonen for a first round pick, unless it is a top-15 or even top-10. If it is a late first round pick, I wouldn't do it.

So as far as I'm concerned, I'd put Toivonen's value around a top-10/top-15 pick, and Zidlicky's value around a third rounder. He's very good offensively but overall I'm just not that high on that guy, like nuckfan said we saw other guys had the same start as him in the past, and they got the same hype too. Delmore is a great example, I remember clearly when everyone had only praised for him.

That explain my example above...

I could live with this deal : Zidlicky (2nd round) vs 2nd round and Delmore (let's say 6th round)

But I wouldn't like this deal : Toivonen (top-15 first at least, maybe more) vs Zidlicky (2nd round) and 2nd round.

The first one can definitively be explained, but in the second one you trade quality for quantity, which is a very bad deal IMHO.

Just my opinion of course...


Last edited by Sykie: 06-16-2005 at 05:01 AM.
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06-16-2005, 08:28 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sykie
Fair enough.

I think I would trade Zidlicky for a second round pick considering the situation and all. On the other hand I wouldn't trade Toivonen for a first round pick, unless it is a top-15 or even top-10. If it is a late first round pick, I wouldn't do it.

So as far as I'm concerned, I'd put Toivonen's value around a top-10/top-15 pick, and Zidlicky's value around a third rounder. He's very good offensively but overall I'm just not that high on that guy, like nuckfan said we saw other guys had the same start as him in the past, and they got the same hype too. Delmore is a great example, I remember clearly when everyone had only praised for him.

That explain my example above...

I could live with this deal : Zidlicky (2nd round) vs 2nd round and Delmore (let's say 6th round)

But I wouldn't like this deal : Toivonen (top-15 first at least, maybe more) vs Zidlicky (2nd round) and 2nd round.

The first one can definitively be explained, but in the second one you trade quality for quantity, which is a very bad deal IMHO.

Just my opinion of course...

I understand your logic. But if Zidlicky's value drops because of this market, then so does Delmore, a player who passed through waivers in his last NHL season. Delmore was merely a throw-in player on a couple of deadline deals in the last NHL season. His value was next to nothing. I just can't see him fetching a 6th rounder if this market is supposed to kill Zids value too.

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