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Old
07-14-2013, 05:52 AM
  #26
Norade
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Just a note that's now in the OP that I thought should be shared.

Feel free to change your prediction as the roster is finalized, but try to avoid editing after puck drop opening night so people don't think you changed things to look good.

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Old
07-14-2013, 01:43 PM
  #27
y2kcanucks
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Sedin - Sedin - Kassian
(25-40-65 / 14-53-67 / 10-11-21) [49 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Burrows
(16-12-28 / 26-28-54 / 24-25-49) [66 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(15-15-30 / 13-24-37 / 17-20-37) [45 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(4-6-10 / 2-4-6 / 4-4-8) [10 goals]

Hamhuis - Beiksa
(8-25-33 / 8-23-31) [16 goals]
Edler - Garrison
(10-36-46 / 15-20-35) [25 goals]
Tanev - Weber
(2-14-16 / 2-17-19) [4 goals]

Luongo
Lack

215 goals

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Old
07-14-2013, 01:53 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Sedin - Sedin - Kassian
(25-40-65 / 14-53-67 / 10-11-21) [49 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Burrows
(16-12-28 / 26-28-54 / 24-25-49) [66 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(15-15-30 / 13-24-37 / 17-20-37) [45 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(4-6-10 / 2-4-6 / 4-4-8) [10 goals]

Hamhuis - Beiksa
(8-25-33 / 8-23-31) [16 goals]
Edler - Garrison
(10-36-46 / 15-20-35) [25 goals]
Tanev - Weber
(2-14-16 / 2-17-19) [4 goals]

Luongo
Lack

215 goals
If Kassian is playing with the sedins I sure hope for more than that.

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Old
07-14-2013, 02:56 PM
  #29
RobertKron
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Quote:
Originally Posted by huntison View Post
If Kassian is playing with the sedins I sure hope for more than that.
Also, Henrik is going to put up his lowest assist and points total since 2004? Is he going to miss part of the season?

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07-14-2013, 02:58 PM
  #30
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertKron View Post
Also, Henrik is going to put up his lowest assist and points total since 2004? Is he going to miss part of the season?
It's called regression.

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Old
07-14-2013, 02:59 PM
  #31
canuck4life16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by huntison View Post
If Kassian is playing with the sedins I sure hope for more than that.
so unrealistic Daniel and Henrik will be in the 80 point range

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Old
07-14-2013, 03:02 PM
  #32
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canuck4life16 View Post
so unrealistic Daniel and Henrik will be in the 80 point range
The Sedin's projected point totals this year over a full 82 games would be 70 for Daniel, and 77 for Henrik. Perhaps my prediction for Henrik is a bit low, but I don't see how Daniel's projected totals are unrealistic. I also have factored in Kassian as their primary winger which will likely take away from some of their offense.

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07-14-2013, 03:05 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
It's called regression.
Just out of the blue he's going to drop off noticeably from the same old consistent production he's been putting up for the past seven years? (and that you've claimed he won't produce for all of those seven years) Due to what? What do you see in his game that indicates he's going to regress so suddenly and severely?

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Old
07-14-2013, 03:11 PM
  #34
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertKron View Post
Just out of the blue he's going to drop off noticeably from the same old consistent production he's been putting up for the past seven years? (and that you've claimed he won't produce for all of those seven years) Due to what? What do you see in his game that indicates he's going to regress so suddenly and severely?
Well there's the fact that his numbers have regressed steadily for a third straight year. Henrik was on pace for 58 assists over 82 games this season. Without Burrows on his wing and Kassian in that spot for an anticipated large chunk of next season I think it's quite conservative to predict 5 fewer assists over 82 games than what Henrik was projected to produce this season.

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Old
07-14-2013, 03:13 PM
  #35
canuck4life16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertKron View Post
Just out of the blue he's going to drop off noticeably from the same old consistent production he's been putting up for the past seven years? (and that you've claimed he won't produce for all of those seven years) Due to what? What do you see in his game that indicates he's going to regress so suddenly and severely?
no chance Daniel and Henrik will go down as this shorten season didn't help at all...They will return to 80 to 90 or even 100 points once more

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07-14-2013, 03:38 PM
  #36
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I don't have an issue with predicting 65-70 points for the Sedins.

It's stupid to complain about someone NOT thinking any player is going to be a PPG guy year-in-year out, let alone the fact that they won't be playing as much with Burrows.

"They will return to 80-90 or 100 point seasons" seems like a silly thing to be so stubborn/bullish about. How could you possibly know that?

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Old
07-14-2013, 03:43 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Sedin - Sedin - Kassian
(25-40-65 / 14-53-67 / 10-11-21) [49 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Burrows
(16-12-28 / 26-28-54 / 24-25-49) [66 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(15-15-30 / 13-24-37 / 17-20-37) [45 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(4-6-10 / 2-4-6 / 4-4-8) [10 goals]

Hamhuis - Beiksa
(8-25-33 / 8-23-31) [16 goals]
Edler - Garrison
(10-36-46 / 15-20-35) [25 goals]
Tanev - Weber
(2-14-16 / 2-17-19) [4 goals]

Luongo
Lack

215 goals
Fairly decent predictions considering your opinion on the Sedins, I just think that Kassian's totals are little low while Burrows is a little high. Playing with the twins, I see Kassian potting 20 goals and getting around. 35-40 pts at least. Burr imo will take a hit to his goal total playing with Kesler instead and it would not surprise me if he drops below 20 goals.

Just my .02

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Old
07-14-2013, 03:55 PM
  #38
canuck4life16
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sedin sedin Kassasin
(30-50-80) (20-70-90) (20-20-40) 70 goals
Booth Kesler Burrows 70 goals
(20-30-50) (25-35-60) (25-30-55)
Higgins Schroeder Hansen 55 goals
(20-25-45) (15-20-35) (20-10-30)
Richardson Santorell Weise 12 goals
(5-5-10) (4-3-7) (3-2-5)

Hamhuis Garrsion
(7-15-22) (12-30-42) 19 goals
Edler Bieska
(14-30-44) (9-30-39) 23 goals
Tanev Weber
(3-4-7) (5-7-11) 8 goals

257 goals

Luongo (35-12-1, 2.00 .945%)
Lack (23-10-1) 2.20 .930%)

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Old
07-14-2013, 04:01 PM
  #39
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canuck4life16 View Post
sedin sedin Kassasin
(30-50-80) (20-70-90) (20-20-40) 70 goals
Booth Kesler Burrows 70 goals
(20-30-50) (25-35-60) (25-30-55)
Higgins Schroeder Hansen 55 goals
(20-25-45) (15-20-35) (20-10-30)
Richardson Santorell Weise 12 goals
(5-5-10) (4-3-7) (3-2-5)

Hamhuis Garrsion
(7-15-22) (12-30-42) 19 goals
Edler Bieska
(14-30-44) (9-30-39) 23 goals
Tanev Weber
(3-4-7) (5-7-11) 8 goals

257 goals

Luongo (35-12-1, 2.00 .945%)
Lack (23-10-1) 2.20 .930%)
So somehow the Sedins are going to reverse their regression trend, Kassian becomes a 20 goal scorer overnight, the Canucks become a top 3 offensive team in the NHL, and Luongo posts the best save percentage in a single season in NHL history?


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Old
07-14-2013, 04:06 PM
  #40
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I'll do mine:

Daniel (35-50-85) - Henrik (15-72-87) - Burrows (30-25-55) 80 Goals.
Daniel regains his form somewhat since his concussion in 2012. They won't challenge for the Art Ross but slightly over PPG would not suprise me.

Higgins (23-20-45) - Kesler (28-42-70) - Hansen (12-32-44) 63 Goals.
This is the Shutdown line and puts up for a fair number of totals this is all dependant on if Kesler stays healthy for the year.

Booth (20-13-33) - Gaunce (12-22-34) - Kassian (13-24-37) 45 Goals
Booth and Kassian play well together and Gaunce I feel gets the shot before Horvat just because he is slightly more developed imo.

Weise (5-7-12) - Richardson (9-10-19) - Santorelli (4-10-14) in 60 Games Sestito (1-3-4 in 22 Games) 19 Goals.
Sestito means Santorelli sits in the games needing a tough guy.

207 Goals from the Forwards is a bit high and depends on two things Kesler's health and Daniel is fully recovered (mentally) from the concussion) a 2.52 Goals For Average from the Forwards is about fair.

As for the Defense:

Hamhuis (4-28-32) - Bieksa (7-29-36) 11 Goals
Bieksa sacrifices some of his assists for a better D structure in his play loses the "Bazooka Joe" Moniker for his sometimes comical defensive game.

Edler (11-37-48) - Tanev (2-20-22) 13 Goals.
Edler regains Edler form Tanev gives him the ability to be more offensive focused slightly misses 50 points but plays a better all-around game which is better for the team.

Garrison (17-13-30) - Weber (3-20 in 65 GP) Corrado (1-3-4 in 17 GP) 21 Goals
Weber plays the lion share of the games Corrado gets a few more games to get his feet wet in NHL shows he'll be ready to challenge for a top 4 spot next year. Garrison plays like Garrison can plays most of his time on the first PP getting most of his goal from his cannon.

45 Goals is a fair assessment for this Defence if anything I think either Edler or Bieksa can get more (especially if Edler just lets them fly from the Point.)

Goalies -
Luongo - 62 GP - 34-19-9 2.24 GAA .919 Save Percentage and 5 Shutouts.
Luongo free from the usurper known as Cory Schneider plays back to normal and with a slightly better defensive game that Torts brings has a very solid year.

Lack - 20 GP - 11-7-2 2.50 GAA - .909 Save Percentage and 1 Shutout.
I figure Lack will have a rough start to the year but will be strong during his second half of starts.

Canucks Record for the year 45-26-11 101 Points. Finishes 2nd in the Division to my guess is San Jose. Play LA in round 1 and lose a heartbreak Game 7 in OT by a blown call. Canuck fans upset Bettman says sorry but nothing comes from it.

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Old
07-15-2013, 01:02 AM
  #41
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Daniel (28-45-73) Henrik (13-62-75) Burrows (26-25-52)
Booth (16-15-31, 60 games) Kesler (23-28-51) Kassian (15-20-35)
Higgins (13-16-29) Schroeder (9-19-28) Hansen (14-14-28)
Richardson (6-7-13) Santorelli (4-8-12) Weise (5-4-9)
call ups 5 goals

Forwards = 177

Hamhuis (7-22-29) Bieksa (8-20-28)
Edler (12-30-42) Tanev (2-10-12)
Garrison (15-16-31) Corrado (3-6-9)
Weber (4-6-10)

Defense = 51

Total = 228, 2.78 Goals/game

I think, if healthy, this is realistic and achievable. However, with injuries, total goals can be knocked down by 5-15 goals easily.


Last edited by myrocketsgotcracked: 07-15-2013 at 01:22 AM.
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Old
07-15-2013, 07:52 AM
  #42
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D. Sedin 32-53-85
H. Sedin 18-65-83
Burrows 25-26-51
Kesler 26-30-56
Booth 22-23-45
Kassian 16-21-37
Higgins 17-20-37
Richardson 8-14-22
Hansen 13-25-38
Weise 4-7-11
Schroeder? 5-9-14
???? 1-3-4

Edler 12-27-39
Garrison 8-17-25
Hamhuis 3-20-23
Bieksa 4-22-26
Tanev? 2-14-16
Weber 4-11-15

So that's what 225~ goals? Seems reasonable. Now for goalie stats...assuming Luongo stays for some reason.

luongo 35-22-6, 2.37 GAA, 0.920 SV%, 4 SO
lack 10-7-2, 2.51 GAA, 0.914 SV%, 0 SO

So 45-29-8 is what I think we'll do next year. Fairly reasonable, I think. We'll be a scrappy playoff team though I hope.

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Old
07-15-2013, 03:19 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
The Sedin's projected point totals this year over a full 82 games would be 70 for Daniel, and 77 for Henrik. Perhaps my prediction for Henrik is a bit low, but I don't see how Daniel's projected totals are unrealistic. I also have factored in Kassian as their primary winger which will likely take away from some of their offense.
Their points total regressed this season due to them playing more of a shutdown role than ever before and a very anemic powerplay.

If Kesler's healthy and the Canucks have a reasonable powerplay again, then it's not hard to expect them to jump back into PPG players or close to it.

Their EV strength scoring rate was exactly the same as last season, despite the Sedins taking on a more defensive role. You could even say they got better this year at EV.

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Old
07-15-2013, 03:38 PM
  #44
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No Jensen? This guy is gonna make the team this year.

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07-15-2013, 05:32 PM
  #45
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Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
(29-40-69 (injury, miss 5 games) / 14-63-77 / 30-17-47) [73 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Kassian
(15-25-40 / 32-25-57 / 15-32-47) [62 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(15-15-30 / 15-20-35 / 20-20-40) [50 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(9-10-19 / 2-11-13 / 11-9-20) [22 goals]

Hamhuis - Bieksa
(5-31-36 / 14-30-44) [19 goals]
Edler - Garrison
(13-27-40 / 23-28-51)(have a feeling Garrison will be used by Torts heavily on 1st PP [36 goals]
Tanev - Weber
(2-19-21 / 11-13-23) [13 goals]

Luongo (53GP 30W 12L 11OTL)
Eriksson (29 GP 19W 4L 6OTL)

HON:
Jensen
(11-18-29) for NHL stats if he plays
(47-39-86) for AHL stats if he plays

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Old
07-16-2013, 06:06 AM
  #46
Norade
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Looks like our predicted low end is about 215 goals, mid range is roughly 240, and high end is 275. The more different predictions we get the better our chances of finding the correct result gets so if you're just browsing through lay your prediction on me.

EDIT: Went through the thread and looked at predicted goal totals and made this list. Sorry to the guys that just did points, I appreciate your input too but it's less useful for this purpose.

Raw List:

236 - Norade
249 - Edler Von Gud
221 - ihaveyuidonttouchme
225 - Shareefruck
269 - Vankiller Whale
215 - y2canucks
257 - canuck4life16
252 - CM-
228 - myrocketsgotcracked
225 - Reverend Mayhem
275 - Braeden

High: 275 - Braeden
Low: 215 - y2canucks
Average: 241
Poster Closest to Average: 236 - Norade

It's been shown that large enough crowds are really good at predicting things accurately so I'll be adding this to the OP and looking for more data points.


Last edited by Norade: 07-16-2013 at 06:39 AM.
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Old
07-16-2013, 09:40 AM
  #47
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Hahaha holy %*$, there's some of this that's within the realm of reason, and then everyone starts pegging Garrison for 15-20 goals. Good luck with that, I'll be happy with 10ish.

Sedin (27/78) Sedin (19/77) Kassian (22/49) - if Kassian sticks there. If not, no.
Burrows (18/45) Kesler (25/55) Hansen (25/57) - Hansen for the breakout year. Burr = no Sedins.
Booth (21/40) Schroeder (11/40) Higgins (17/35) - Booth gets at least some PP time.
???????? Richardson (5/32) Weise (5/27)

Hamhuis (5/33) / Bieksa (7/30)
Edler (11/45) / Garrison 12/32)
??????????? / Tanev (4 / 20)

The "optimistic" version of this adds 10 points to each of Daniel, Henrik and Edler and the rest stay pretty similar, maybe a couple more tallies for Burrows and a 30 goal season for Kes.

EDIT: add 10 goals for the missing spots, between the two of them.


Last edited by ARSix: 07-16-2013 at 09:46 AM.
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Old
07-16-2013, 09:43 AM
  #48
Norade
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Garrison scored at a 13 goal pace last season even after his slow start and he scored 16 the year before that. 15-20 is high but not unreasonable.

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Old
07-16-2013, 09:53 AM
  #49
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Sedin (30-50-80) - Sedin (20-60-80) - Burrows (25-25-50)
Booth (23-20-43) - Kesler (30-30-60) - Kassian (20-20-40)
Higgins (15-20-35) - Schroeder (12-26-38) - Hansen (17-18-35)
Richardson (5-5-10) - Gaunce (7-10-17) - Weise(4-5-9)

Edler (10-36-46) - Tanev (4-10-14)
Hamhuis (7-27-34) - Bieksa (6-25-31)
Garrison (14-15-29) - Corrado (2-8-10)

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07-16-2013, 09:54 AM
  #50
ARSix
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Garrison scored at a 13 goal pace last season even after his slow start and he scored 16 the year before that. 15-20 is high but not unreasonable.
When we signed him we all agreed, "okay, what we've got here is a defensively reliable blue liner with good skating and positioning, and a big shot. Now, that 16 goal performance was an aberration, but if he replaces Salo's power play role and production (i.e. 8-12), we'll be quite happy."

Now everyone's decided he's going to be in the Weber / Karlsson / Subban conversation year in and year out? Don't get your hopes too high. Like I say, somewhere in the 10-15 range is optimistic but fair. Under 8 would be pessimistic. Pushing 20, you're out on a limb.

Pointless debate I guess, I just thought it was funny, someone up there had him at 23 goals.

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