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Old
07-14-2013, 10:25 PM
  #76
Woodman19
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Just a little recap on the Drabek situation

http://www.bluejayshipsters.com/2013...to-rescue.html

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Kyle Drabek has not pitched for the Jays since the disastrous week in June when three of our starting five went down with various injuries and Drew Hutchison joining him for Tommy John surgery. Is Drabek done for now that he has gone through his 2nd Tommy John in his career and if not what are the prospects he has going forward?

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07-14-2013, 10:39 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Just a little recap on the Drabek situation

http://www.bluejayshipsters.com/2013...to-rescue.html
Next year's rotation is going to be interesting.

Who we have:

Dickey
Morrow
Buehrle

Who we need to make decisions on:

Happ
Johnson

Who could potentially move up into the rotation:

Rogers (as a no. 5)
McGowan (no. 5)
Drabek
Hutichson
Romero
Nolin
Stroman
Potential Trade / UFA sign

I would not be against trading Buehrle as long as it made sense. Johnson is someone I hope we trade by the deadline or get a 1st round draft pick for (gives us 3 in a deep year!). Morrow is just a huge question mark. He's got amazing stuff but the man cannot stay healthy for what ever reason.

Next year's rotation could get another huge change over the offseason.

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Old
07-14-2013, 10:39 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmitri View Post
Next year's rotation is going to be interesting.

Who we have:

Dickey
Morrow
Buehrle

Who we need to make decisions on:

Happ
Johnson

Who could potentially move up into the rotation:

Rogers (as a no. 5)
McGowan
Drabek
Hutichson
Romero

I would not be against trading Buehrle as long as it made sense. Johnson is someone I hope we trade by the deadline or get a 1st round draft pick for (gives us 3 in a deep year!). Morrow is just a huge question mark. He's got amazing stuff but the man cannot stay healthy for what ever reason.

Next year's rotation could get another huge change over the offseason.
Don't forget Stroman and Nolin.

Also, you can't trade draft picks in baseball.

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07-14-2013, 10:42 PM
  #79
chewey
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Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Don't forget Stroman and Nolin.

Also, you can't trade draft picks in baseball.
Sorry, I mean if he gets qualified over a certain amount in the offseason don't the Jays get a 1st rounder for him? I'm a bit iffy on the rules on that part.

And right, forgot those two.

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07-14-2013, 10:42 PM
  #80
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He's referring to the compensation pick if JJ does not accept a qualifying offer and a team >10th spot signs him.

edit: ^ yeah.

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07-14-2013, 10:49 PM
  #81
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I get a certain satisfaction from watching Kevin Gregg implode.

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Old
07-14-2013, 10:54 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Everlong View Post
I get a certain satisfaction from watching Kevin Gregg implode.
Pretty entertaining 8th and 9th innings I must say

Cards manager is ballsy in leaving the reliever to bat with 2 outs in the top of the 8th after the Cards go up 2 runs, but have the bases loaded

Cubs rally to tie it in the bottom of the 8th (tying hit after a questionable ball)

Cards explode for 4 runs in the top of the 9th, with a 3 run home run to cap it off of Gregg

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Old
07-14-2013, 11:12 PM
  #83
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After the break, Jays have TB, Dodgers who have been playing very well recently, Astros and the A's.

Wonder when the last time the Jays played the Dodgers?

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Old
07-15-2013, 12:31 AM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Don't forget Stroman and Nolin.

Also, you can't trade draft picks in baseball.
They are actually allowing limited trading of picks, but only in a certain range. It was talked about at this year's draft even though nobody actually traded any of the picks.


and to the above tiers of pitchers, I don't want to see McGowan pushed back to being a starter. With as many injury problems as he's had and as good as he's been in the pen over the past few weeks, let's not potentially blow a good thing. Both him and Cecil have been excellent parts of the bullpen. The kind of parts that create the sort of pen depth you need given how volatile relievers are. The last thing I'd want to see is to put either of those guys back into starter roles and have things fall apart on them and then who knows what happens.

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Old
07-15-2013, 12:57 AM
  #85
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Javier Baez has some insane power.

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Old
07-15-2013, 07:17 AM
  #86
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http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ue-jays-season
not sure if posted but a detailed story of this season

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07-15-2013, 07:53 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by blue82 View Post
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ue-jays-season
not sure if posted but a detailed story of this season
I think it is a good recap for those who aren't huge baseball fans but casually observe the team, or who do not regularly follow the Jays. However most here, who regularly post within the forums, are aware of the article's content about sub-par performances, specifically from the Miami trade.

As much as this sucks:

Quote:
From the start of the 1998 season through yesterday, the Blue Jays had played exactly .500 ball, at 1,260-1,260. If they played in the NBA or the NHL, they would have made the playoffs at least a half-dozen times in the last 15 years; if they played in the NFL, they would have qualified for three or four postseasons....No team has been hurt more by that selectiveness than the Blue Jays.
I am okay with how baseball conducts its playoffs. I've always been under the view that the elite teams in any sport should be the ones that qualify for the playoffs. It sickens me seeing .500 teams in other leagues make the playoffs, or the league as a whole reward more than 50% of its teams into the playoffs.

So even though this screws over the Blue Jays, the bigger picture is that, of all the professional sports, baseball rewards mediocrity the least.

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Old
07-15-2013, 07:56 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
They are actually allowing limited trading of picks, but only in a certain range. It was talked about at this year's draft even though nobody actually traded any of the picks.


and to the above tiers of pitchers, I don't want to see McGowan pushed back to being a starter. With as many injury problems as he's had and as good as he's been in the pen over the past few weeks, let's not potentially blow a good thing. Both him and Cecil have been excellent parts of the bullpen. The kind of parts that create the sort of pen depth you need given how volatile relievers are. The last thing I'd want to see is to put either of those guys back into starter roles and have things fall apart on them and then who knows what happens.
I thought it was the competition picks or whatever fancy name they gave to the extra pick small market teams get. I believe they are allowed to trade those picks and that one was traded last off season. i can't remember by who though. Not sure about any other picks that can be moved

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Old
07-15-2013, 08:12 AM
  #89
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So I've been reading a bit on the Jays draft picks...

In the 7th round they picked some kid, Conner Greene (205th overall). Listed at 6'3" and 165lbs (!?). And he touches the mid 90s with his fastball.

How the hell doesn't his arm fall off every time he throws that hard?

165 and throwing mid 90s heat, is that not the definition of "projectable"? Everybody is talking about Tellez/Brentz/Bickford, and I hadn't really heard much about him till I actually started digging into the picks.

Even Hollon and Murphy were getting more love, although they both seem like relievers at best given both of their injury issues.

Did it ever come out what the reason was for Bickford not signing? I read that AA said it was "not financial", but it doesn't seem to have been a medical thing either. Hate how cryptic the Jays org is sometimes.


Last edited by donkeyy0: 07-15-2013 at 08:20 AM.
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Old
07-15-2013, 08:43 AM
  #90
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Fact of the matter is, you can have as much pitching depth as you want, but the teams that make the playoffs generally get 120+ starts from their opening day rotation. The Jays right now have

Dickey - 20
Buehrle - 19
Johnson - 12
Morrow - 10
Happ - 7

Total: 68

With 94 games played, that puts us on pace for 117 (e: messed up initial games played) starts from the rotation (and be honest, that's a lot more than you thought, right?). Although that's assuming complete health from Dickey/Buehrle the rest of the way and with Morrow/Happ still out it will probably be more around the 110 range. The joke this year (and last year as well with Romero/Alvarez) has been that even our healthy pitchers haven't been effective

For reference, the past few years

2012: 108 (included Hutchison as #5 since we didn't have a real #5 at the start of year)
2011: 104 (Jo-Jo Reyes!)
2010: 126
2009: 89 (combined 11 starts between Litsch/Purcey)
2008: 139

I'll let you guess which year we had the best ERA in baseball. And there's a somewhat decent correlation there between rotation starts and record.

e: to add on, the Jays got 136 starts from their opening day rotation in '92 (Morris-Stottlemyre-Guzman-Key-Wells), so that excludes an extra 7 starts from David Cone, and 132 in '93 (Morris-Leiter-Guzman-Stottlemyre-Hentgen) which excludes 26 starts from an opening day injured Dave Stewart. The Jays had 16 pitchers make starts in those two years combined (13 already in 2013).

So either pitchers weren't as soft back then (come on down Brandon Morrow!) or the Jays had some combination of terrible luck now/good luck back then.


Last edited by theaub: 07-15-2013 at 09:05 AM.
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Old
07-15-2013, 08:54 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmitri View Post
Next year's rotation is going to be interesting.

Who we have:

Dickey
Morrow
Buehrle

Who we need to make decisions on:

Happ
Johnson

Who could potentially move up into the rotation:

Rogers (as a no. 5)
McGowan (no. 5)
Drabek
Hutichson
Romero
Nolin
Stroman
Potential Trade / UFA sign

I would not be against trading Buehrle as long as it made sense. Johnson is someone I hope we trade by the deadline or get a 1st round draft pick for (gives us 3 in a deep year!). Morrow is just a huge question mark. He's got amazing stuff but the man cannot stay healthy for what ever reason.

Next year's rotation could get another huge change over the offseason.
No decision on Happ. He was given a 3 year deal was he not? Or 2 and an option

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Old
07-15-2013, 08:55 AM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
They are actually allowing limited trading of picks, but only in a certain range. It was talked about at this year's draft even though nobody actually traded any of the picks.


and to the above tiers of pitchers, I don't want to see McGowan pushed back to being a starter. With as many injury problems as he's had and as good as he's been in the pen over the past few weeks, let's not potentially blow a good thing. Both him and Cecil have been excellent parts of the bullpen. The kind of parts that create the sort of pen depth you need given how volatile relievers are. The last thing I'd want to see is to put either of those guys back into starter roles and have things fall apart on them and then who knows what happens.
Yup, don't mess with a good thing.

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Old
07-15-2013, 09:02 AM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Just a little recap on the Drabek situation

http://www.bluejayshipsters.com/2013...to-rescue.html
Good article.

Im wondering if with regards to the control issues and mechanics, if Drabek was always so focused on getting up to the majors there wasn't a lot of focus on perfecting his mechanics. With the time that the injury has provided, a focus on mechanics over getting up to the show was possible.

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07-15-2013, 09:07 AM
  #94
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Kendall Graveman started for Lansing last night. Worth noting because he was a draft pick THIS year.

He was a senior at Mississippi State recently. He could be pushed through the minors quickly starting next year at Dunedin.

He's 22. Born in December of 90

Scouting report from MLB:

Quote:
Graveman has capably moved to the front of the Mississippi State rotation to fill the void left by the departure of Chris Stratton, a 2012 first-round selection. Graveman was a 36th-round pick himself a year ago, but returned to school for his senior year. He uses a sinker-changeup combination to produce plenty of groundouts. Graveman's fastball sits in the upper-80s with heavy sinking action and his changeup is a solid offering. Graveman throws a curveball as well, but it is a below-average pitch. Graveman has good command and has proven to be durable in college, which should make him a solid senior sign.
Apparently he looked very good in the Cape league too. Given his velocity, I'd pair him with Deck and Jenkins this summer on the weighted ball program.


Last edited by jcollins: 07-15-2013 at 09:13 AM.
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Old
07-15-2013, 09:09 AM
  #95
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Just one more thing on the starting pitchers from this year

There's a statisitical analysis (which I cannot find right now but I'm sure is still out there), that looks at ERA per each rotation spot. In essence you just divide the number of starts in the year by 5 (so right now it would be 19, 19, 19, 19, 18), and then place the best ERA's in each spot. Right now the Jays look like

#1: 4.04 (Jenkins, Rogers, Redmond, Dickey)
#2: 4.74 (Dickey, Buehrle)
#3: 4.90 (Buehrle, Happ)
#4: 5.26 (Happ, Johnson, Morrow)
#5: 8.90 (Morrow, Ortiz, Laffey, Wang, Romero, Nolin)

So yeah, that's pretty terrible. And if someone said the 3 best ERA's of pitchers who started games this year would be Jenkins/Rogers/Redmond I'd probably be surprised we were only four games under .500

e: here is the article (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...your-4-starter), and remember that is from a more offensively powered 2006 league. The comparative AL totals from the article are the first number

#1: 3.70/4.04
#2: 4.24/4.74
#3: 4.58/4.90
#4: 5.09/5.26
#5: 6.22/8.90

So to relate to my above post, this just shows why you need your starting 5 to stay healthy; the pu pu platter the Jays have been throwing out at the #5 spot this year has just been a joke; the other four spots are just below average.


Last edited by theaub: 07-15-2013 at 09:16 AM.
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Old
07-15-2013, 09:11 AM
  #96
blue82
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Originally Posted by jcollins View Post
Yup, don't mess with a good thing.
just one thing about Mccgowan, am really curious as to why the blue jays have shown soooo much patience with him throughout the years rather than just letting him off the payroll..you would think they have bigger plans for him?

still not sure what the deal with Lincoln is..i always thought the jays were going to turn him into a starter..i dont see him mentioned?

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07-15-2013, 09:16 AM
  #97
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just one thing about Mccgowan, am really curious as to why the blue jays have shown soooo much patience with him throughout the years rather than just letting him off the payroll..you would think they have bigger plans for him?

still not sure what the deal with Lincoln is..i always thought the jays were going to turn him into a starter..i dont see him mentioned?
On McGowan...you could be right, they could want to try him back as a starter, Im not sure if I would. Next year he makes 3 or 4 million I think. He could perform way above that out of the pen.

On Lincoln, the starters dream is dead for him. They tried it for like 2-3 outtings in ST and then Gibby came out and said that was over and he'd be used strictly out of the pen.

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07-15-2013, 09:17 AM
  #98
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Quote:
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just one thing about Mccgowan, am really curious as to why the blue jays have shown soooo much patience with him throughout the years rather than just letting him off the payroll..you would think they have bigger plans for him?
I don't think its anything more than the fact that they believed in his arm even as a reliever, which certainly seems accurate at this point.

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07-15-2013, 10:59 AM
  #99
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I don't think its anything more than the fact that they believed in his arm even as a reliever, which certainly seems accurate at this point.
I think it's them believing in his arm, period. Whether that's as a starter or reliever, they wanted to see his stuff when health was sorted out. So far, their patience is being rewarded. The fastball, although straight as an arrow, can reach upwards of 97 in a bullpen role and that wipe-out slider is filthy. I think he's just fine where he is. There are some interchangeable pieces from the pen that are going to be moved out in the coming months. Having McGowan, Delabar, Cecil, and Santos (who knows) at the back end still sets us up nicely. Janssen is my boy, but he's a proven commodity, and the jays might as well take advantage if they can improve this roster in some way.

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07-15-2013, 11:19 AM
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blue82 View Post
just one thing about Mccgowan, am really curious as to why the blue jays have shown soooo much patience with him throughout the years rather than just letting him off the payroll..you would think they have bigger plans for him?

still not sure what the deal with Lincoln is..i always thought the jays were going to turn him into a starter..i dont see him mentioned?
One name can answer that: Chris Carpenter.

Former GM JP low balled Carpenter and he walked to St. Louis. He recovered from his injuries and became a Cy Young Award winner.

AA didn't want to make the same mistake. McGowan has a premium arm, but a long history of injuries. AA made an minimal investment in McGowan and gave him the time to recover. Whether or not it works out is still unknown, but it was a tiny, tiny price to pay to keep a premium, but oft-injured, pitcher in the organization.

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