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Contrary to popular belief, Paul Holmgren drafts well

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07-12-2013, 02:01 PM
  #1
ShawnTHW
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Contrary to popular belief, Paul Holmgren drafts well

Took a lot of time to crunch a bunch of numbers together. And after doing so, I can safely say that Paul Holmgren and the rest of the Flyers scouting crew has done a bang up job at drafting during his tenure:

http://thehockeywriters.com/contrary...n-drafts-well/

My math teachers would be so proud.....

Thoughts?

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07-12-2013, 02:07 PM
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Well, I don't think it's any surprise that he drafts well. The issue has been trading away too many draft picks over the years, thus neutralizing one of his strengths.

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07-12-2013, 02:08 PM
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duffy9748
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They've been called the best drafting team in the league at least 3 or 4 times over the past two years. I don't think anyone can deny he is great at assessing talent.

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07-12-2013, 02:11 PM
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Psuhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShawnTHW View Post
Took a lot of time to crunch a bunch of numbers together. And after doing so, I can safely say that Paul Holmgren and the rest of the Flyers scouting crew has done a bang up job at drafting during his tenure:

http://thehockeywriters.com/contrary...n-drafts-well/

My math teachers would be so proud.....

Thoughts?
Taylor Leier is a forward not a defensman.

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07-12-2013, 02:12 PM
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ShawnTHW
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
Taylor Leier is a forward not a defensman.
Woops. Was busy focusing on Gostisbehere's paragraph when I wrote that so the defenseman part was still fresh in my mind. Just fixed it.

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07-12-2013, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duffy9748 View Post
They've been called the best drafting team in the league at least 3 or 4 times over the past two years. I don't think anyone can deny he is great at assessing talent.
I've seen best at drafting forwards, probably not best drafting overall though. Detroit probably tops most people's lists just because they got lucky with Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

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07-12-2013, 02:29 PM
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Flyers made the playoffs what 19 out of the last 21 years? You can't do that by buying everybody.

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07-12-2013, 02:36 PM
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Psuhockey
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http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00007439.html
The 2012 and 2013 drafts look especially good as the Flyers might end up with 3 or more NHLers from each draft. Before that, the Flyers had traded too many picks but managed to hit on at least 1 promising late rounder like McGinn, Wellwood, Lauridsen and Rinaldo. My opinion has always been that if the Flyers were just patient, upgraded their AHL development and not constantly trade 1st and 2nd round picks, they would be a perineal contender with just drafted plays. Their big budget ways have worked against them.

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07-12-2013, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00007439.html
The 2012 and 2013 drafts look especially good as the Flyers might end up with 3 or more NHLers from each draft. Before that, the Flyers had traded too many picks but managed to hit on at least 1 promising late rounder like McGinn, Wellwood, Lauridsen and Rinaldo. My opinion has always been that if the Flyers were just patient, upgraded their AHL development and not constantly trade 1st and 2nd round picks, they would be a perineal contender with just drafted plays. Their big budget ways have worked against them.
Well, 2011 might be good too.

Couturier, Cousins and Noebels.

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07-12-2013, 03:26 PM
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Psuhockey
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Originally Posted by BackWithaVengeance View Post
Well, 2011 might be good too.

Couturier, Cousins and Noebels.
My mistake, I meant 2011 instead of 2013, which is a little too early to tell. You could also throw in Mathers as a possible 12/13 forward from 2011.

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07-12-2013, 03:36 PM
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On of the biggest problems I have with Homer is that first number in the table, not the second.

Also, since the Flyers didn't have a lot of top round picks, look for the Flyers to slip down that table the years go by as they don't have many 600+ game players from the drafts.

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07-12-2013, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
My mistake, I meant 2011 instead of 2013, which is a little too early to tell. You could also throw in Mathers as a possible 12/13 forward from 2011.
LOL, I was dead serious and didn't realize that it's too early to judge 2013.

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07-12-2013, 07:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00007439.html
The 2012 and 2013 drafts look especially good as the Flyers might end up with 3 or more NHLers from each draft. Before that, the Flyers had traded too many picks but managed to hit on at least 1 promising late rounder like McGinn, Wellwood, Lauridsen and Rinaldo. My opinion has always been that if the Flyers were just patient, upgraded their AHL development and not constantly trade 1st and 2nd round picks, they would be a perineal contender with just drafted plays. Their big budget ways have worked against them.
I agree. I think that they should follow Detroit's model of not rushing players and being patient. I always point out how Brendan Smith finally made it full time to the NHL and he was drafted in 2007. As much as I like Luke Schenn, I thought they did not show patience with JVR.

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07-12-2013, 07:32 PM
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SgtJoseph
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Homer was a heck of a player and is a heck of a GM in my view.......He certainly steps in it from time to time, but when he steps in it its with good intentions for our club.
What would draft day be like with out Homer ? He stirs the pot as well as anyone and always makes it exciting. Homer has a style all of his own that at times I know pi$$es people off, but in the end its very effective and very Flyerlike !

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07-12-2013, 07:39 PM
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Haute Couturier
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This is a biased look at it because it's not taken into account average draft position. Look at the top of your list from the Holmgren era. It's teams who benefited from a high draft position. Even Holmgren has benefited from two top 10 picks. Are they drafting exceptional under Holmgren or are they benefiting from draft position?

Just compare the Flyers and Detroit for example. Each had 3 first round picks during those years. The Flyers were drafting 2nd, 8th, and 19th in the first round. While Detroit was drafting 21st, 27th, and 30th. That's a significant difference. So how can you conclude the Flyers are better at drafting than Detroit when the Flyers were in much better position to draft NHL talent?

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07-12-2013, 07:59 PM
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ShawnTHW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
This is a biased look at it because it's not taken into account average draft position. Look at the top of your list from the Holmgren era. It's teams who benefited from a high draft position. Even Holmgren has benefited from two top 10 picks. Are they drafting exceptional under Holmgren or are they benefiting from draft position?

Just compare the Flyers and Detroit for example. Each had 3 first round picks during those years. The Flyers were drafting 2nd, 8th, and 19th in the first round. While Detroit was drafting 21st, 27th, and 30th. That's a significant difference. So how can you conclude the Flyers are better at drafting than Detroit when the Flyers were in much better position to draft NHL talent?
Detroit was consistently one of the best teams from 2002-06 too and still managed to do a phenomenal job with their draft picks. Like I mentioned in the article, this isn't the be all end all of determining who drafts well and who doesn't.

Detroit also takes time with their prospects. They never rush them and let them develop either in the AHL, NCAA, or Europe. This leads to longer spans between draft picks entering the league, which is why they appear last in the Paul Holmgren era. That isn't to say they are terrible at drafting (quite the contrary). But it will be a while before their picks make any significant impact.

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07-12-2013, 08:23 PM
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I broke this down statistically during the lockout. The Flyers, in the past 20 years, are the best drafting organization percentage wise.

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07-12-2013, 09:30 PM
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I don't think it is a popular belief that Holmgren is bad at drafting. I think even his detractors admit that is probably his biggest strength. His problem is that he seems to make moves that plays against his strength. He trades draft picks and prospects rather than developing them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
Just compare the Flyers and Detroit for example. Each had 3 first round picks during those years. The Flyers were drafting 2nd, 8th, and 19th in the first round. While Detroit was drafting 21st, 27th, and 30th. That's a significant difference. So how can you conclude the Flyers are better at drafting than Detroit when the Flyers were in much better position to draft NHL talent?
Well one of those picks was acquired by trading assets from previous good drafts. I don't see how that should count against the Flyers.

Detroit's drafting reputation has been greatly overblown IMO. They were the first team to scout heavily in Europe and for a while they reaped the benefits of that. However, eventually the rest of the NHL caught up. They haven't drafted a noteworthy player since the last lockout. They're best drafted player since then is Abdelkader.

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07-12-2013, 10:21 PM
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Haute Couturier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coppy View Post
I don't think it is a popular belief that Holmgren is bad at drafting. I think even his detractors admit that is probably his biggest strength. His problem is that he seems to make moves that plays against his strength. He trades draft picks and prospects rather than developing them.



Well one of those picks was acquired by trading assets from previous good drafts. I don't see how that should count against the Flyers.

Detroit's drafting reputation has been greatly overblown IMO. They were the first team to scout heavily in Europe and for a while they reaped the benefits of that. However, eventually the rest of the NHL caught up. They haven't drafted a noteworthy player since the last lockout. They're best drafted player since then is Abdelkader.
It's not that it counts against the Flyers. It's the simple fact that a higher draft position means a better chance at landing quality and a better chance the player will contribute sooner. So how can you accurately compare everyone when the teams with high picks have an advantage?

Heck forget about Detroit for a moment. The Oilers had a 6th overall pick and two 1st overalls during that time. Does that automatically make them a better drafting team compared to teams at the bottom like Vancouver that did not have those high picks?

Not to mention any article that has the era that produced Rinaldo and Wellwood as two of their most notable picks ahead of the era that produced Carter, Richards, Giroux, Downie, and Pitkanen is highly flawed.

It was a nice idea, but doesn't really tell us anything meaningful.

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07-12-2013, 10:24 PM
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Ilya Bryzastor
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Yea no doubt , don't think anyone would argue that it wasn't good drafting. The problem has been questionable contracts and impatience with prospects that we do draft.

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07-12-2013, 10:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
It's not that it counts against the Flyers. It's the simple fact that a higher draft position means a better chance at landing quality and a better chance the player will contribute sooner. So how can you accurately compare everyone when the teams with high picks have an advantage?

Heck forget about Detroit for a moment. The Oilers had a 6th overall pick and two 1st overalls during that time. Does that automatically make them a better drafting team compared to teams at the bottom like Vancouver that did not have those high picks?

Not to mention any article that has the era that produced Rinaldo and Wellwood as two of their most notable picks ahead of the era that produced Carter, Richards, Giroux, Downie, and Pitkanen is highly flawed.

It was a nice idea, but doesn't really tell us anything meaningful.
He was also the Assistant GM during that era. I think it's safe to say he at least had a part in spotting that talent as well, and many of those picks were late first founders. It's pretty well known that he handled a lot of the amateur stuff during the Clarke era. It's part of the reason why he was named GM after Clarke's resignation.

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07-12-2013, 10:47 PM
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Simon Nolet & Dennis Patterson deserve a lot of credit for our drafting success in the last decade. Two of the best in the business.

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07-12-2013, 11:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ilya Bryzastor View Post
Yea no doubt , don't think anyone would argue that it wasn't good drafting. The problem has been questionable contracts and impatience with prospects that we do draft.
People seem to talk about this a lot without giving any explanations. The only two I can think of that even really come close to being "impatient" are Bob and JvR. Bob I have argued about ad nauseum about how it was simply a calculated decision (i.e. at the time, the best the Flyers could have hoped was that some day Bob would turn in to Bryz, so they went for the better, more proven goalie). JvR I don't think had to do with impatience or them giving up on JvR, but instead was dealing form a position of strength (forward depth) to improve a position of weakness (defense).

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07-12-2013, 11:17 PM
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I think people underestimate the thought process they go through when trading picks away. I believe if the franchise sees a player in the daft that they truly believe will be an asset and an NHL player, then they are more likely to keep that pick.

I feel making the decision to trade a pick for a proven is better than drafting someone they have very little confidence in ever making it.

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07-12-2013, 11:50 PM
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I think people underestimate the thought process they go through when trading picks away. I believe if the franchise sees a player in the daft that they truly believe will be an asset and an NHL player, then they are more likely to keep that pick.

I feel making the decision to trade a pick for a proven is better than drafting someone they have very little confidence in ever making it.
No doubt. However, the Flyers are very good at drafting and are always fighting the salary cap. With the track record of success, the Flyers could always be adding high end cheap talent to the lineup.

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