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2013 Offseason roster build thread part Additional Nauseum

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Old
07-25-2013, 10:46 AM
  #326
haseoke39
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Why do you keep calling Pavelski a 3C? He's leaps and bounds better than anything Grigorenko or Hodgson have shown. Apparently, you think Grigorenko and Hodgson (and Girgensons and Larsson) are locks to hit their ceilings. Pavelski would be a 20-minute/game, all-situations 1C in Buffalo, with Grigs and Hodgson gobbling up the easy minutes that Pavelski leaves for them.
1C on a bad team, 3C on a contender. I think that's where the breakdown in communication is happening. I don't think a team with, say, a 33 year old Pavelski as its top pivot belongs deep in the playoffs.

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07-25-2013, 11:25 AM
  #327
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1C on a bad team, 3C on a contender. I think that's where the breakdown in communication is happening. I don't think a team with, say, a 33 year old Pavelski as its top pivot belongs deep in the playoffs.
There are different ways to skin the cat. The bottom line is that they desperately need a two-way center who can win the possession battle and play the tough minutes, thereby alleviating Hodgson and Grigorenko of that burden. Getting that player will improve the roster at no fewer than spots--the acquired player, and the likely coinciding improvements from Hodgson and Grigorenko. I would hope that Grigorenko or Hodgson (or Girgensons) can grow their entire game to the point where we could have two or three really good centers, but that's hope.

In today's NHL, Pavelski is worth $6m per going forward.

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07-25-2013, 11:33 AM
  #328
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I dont see you getting more for Pavelski than Vanek.

Vanek isnt all that much different than Hossa or Kovalchuk.
Since it's not fair to compare their total scoring around the time they were traded (Kovy benefits from the looser game in the early post lockout years). Lets look at them compared to the rest of the league at the time.

4 seasons prior to the year they are traded. Lets look at where they finished in the league in scoring....

Vanek (potentially traded 13-14)
12-13 29th
11-12 54th
10-11 17th
09-10 80th

Kovalchuk traded 2010
09-10 11th (between atl and nj)
08-09 6th
07-08 10th
06-07 34th

Hossa traded 2008
07-08 44th (injured)
06-07 6th
05-06 11th
03-04 5th

anybody see a significant difference?

and the players that Hossa and Kovy got in trade were secondary prospects / spare parts... not "A" prospects, or top prospects, or bluechip prospects.

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07-25-2013, 11:36 AM
  #329
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
1C on a bad team, 3C on a contender. I think that's where the breakdown in communication is happening. I don't think a team with, say, a 33 year old Pavelski as its top pivot belongs deep in the playoffs.
yea, why would a young playoff team want Rod Brindamour at 33 years old....


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07-25-2013, 11:56 AM
  #330
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2014 UFA'S of interest

Ryan Callahan 28
Ryan Smyth 37 (leader for youth)
Matt Read 27
Jason Chimera 34 (leader for youth)
Marcel Goc 29 (role veteran)
Ryan Jones 29
Jannik Hansen 27
Steve Downie 26
Phil Kessel 25 (younger replacement for Vanek) (adds much needed speed)

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07-25-2013, 12:31 PM
  #331
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
There are different ways to skin the cat. The bottom line is that they desperately need a two-way center who can win the possession battle and play the tough minutes, thereby alleviating Hodgson and Grigorenko of that burden. Getting that player will improve the roster at no fewer than spots--the acquired player, and the likely coinciding improvements from Hodgson and Grigorenko. I would hope that Grigorenko or Hodgson (or Girgensons) can grow their entire game to the point where we could have two or three really good centers, but that's hope.

In today's NHL, Pavelski is worth $6m per going forward.
Good points. But put it this way: that might work for next year. But if in years 2 and 3 etc, Pavelski is a 50-60 point center and Hodgson and Grigorenko are putting up as many or more points, then they're going to get the tough minutes. It's not always up to us who we put out against the opponent's top pairing. They can target whoever is putting up the best numbers from our squad.

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07-25-2013, 12:46 PM
  #332
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Why do you keep calling Pavelski a 3C? He's leaps and bounds better than anything Grigorenko or Hodgson have shown. Apparently, you think Grigorenko and Hodgson (and Girgensons and Larsson) are locks to hit their ceilings. Pavelski would be a 20-minute/game, all-situations 1C in Buffalo, with Grigs and Hodgson gobbling up the easy minutes that Pavelski leaves for them.
Im not looking at this for next year...I am looking at this if he was resigned to something like a 6 yr contract...2 yrs in I see him as a 3rd line center from the idea that its a checking/defense line which is what many people refer to as the 3rd line center. The other 2 lines are more offense first type of lines. Grigs and Hodgson both have higher offensive potential than what you would get from Pavelski.

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07-25-2013, 12:51 PM
  #333
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Since it's not fair to compare their total scoring around the time they were traded (Kovy benefits from the looser game in the early post lockout years). Lets look at them compared to the rest of the league at the time.

4 seasons prior to the year they are traded. Lets look at where they finished in the league in scoring....

Vanek (potentially traded 13-14)
12-13 29th
11-12 54th
10-11 17th
09-10 80th

Kovalchuk traded 2010
09-10 11th (between atl and nj)
08-09 6th
07-08 10th
06-07 34th

Hossa traded 2008
07-08 44th (injured)
06-07 6th
05-06 11th
03-04 5th

anybody see a significant difference?

and the players that Hossa and Kovy got in trade were secondary prospects / spare parts... not "A" prospects, or top prospects, or bluechip prospects.

This isnt in hindsight but actually viewing the trade when it was made. the prospects they got from those teams were high quality top 5.

Its called the systems the teams play in....Atlanat was much more free wheeling offense first.

Look at Kovi's numbers when he went to NJ. The numbers when you take into account time on the ice are in the same ball park as Vanek's numbers.

The system under Ruff seriesly lowered Vaneks offensive numbers.


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07-25-2013, 12:58 PM
  #334
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
There are different ways to skin the cat. The bottom line is that they desperately need a two-way center who can win the possession battle and play the tough minutes, thereby alleviating Hodgson and Grigorenko of that burden. Getting that player will improve the roster at no fewer than spots--the acquired player, and the likely coinciding improvements from Hodgson and Grigorenko. I would hope that Grigorenko or Hodgson (or Girgensons) can grow their entire game to the point where we could have two or three really good centers, but that's hope.

In today's NHL, Pavelski is worth $6m per going forward.
I agree on the need of a 2 way 3rd line center who can win draws.

At what cost is worth paying for a playing such as that? For a 3rd line Center role is there much of a difference between Gordon and Pavelski or another center other than salary.

Im concerned about the cost for him to be signed and once that pay is set how does it affect what Hodgson, Grigs, or Girgs may want if they view themselves as better than Pavelski in the sats line.

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07-25-2013, 01:15 PM
  #335
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
I agree on the need of a 2 way 3rd line center who can win draws.

At what cost is worth paying for a playing such as that? For a 3rd line Center role is there much of a difference between Gordon and Pavelski or another center other than salary.

Im concerned about the cost for him to be signed and once that pay is set how does it affect what Hodgson, Grigs, or Girgs may want if they view themselves as better than Pavelski in the sats line.
The difference is pretty substantial as Pavelski has the ability to produce points in that or any role while also being a quality asset on the PP. Of course, if we actually had Pavelski he wouldn't be getting "third line" minutes, just like he isn't getting in San Jose. Would his line be used in a defensive role? Sure, but having a Pavelski type over a Gordon type gives you more flexibility. Two-way defensive lines are just as commonly "top 6" as "third line" these days.

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07-25-2013, 01:32 PM
  #336
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This isnt in hindsight but actually viewing the trade when it was made. the prospects they got from those teams were high quality top 5.
this is just wrong. wrong wrong wrong.... so horribly wrong....

Bergfors and Esposito (at the time of the trade), were NOT high quality prospects. it doesnt matter whether they were top 5 prospects on their team... their team's pipeline sucked... a few years ago, Luke Adam was in our top 5. In fact, Luke Adam today, is a perfect comparable for Bergfors value when he was traded.


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Its called the systems the teams play in....Atlanat was much more free wheeling offense first.

Look at Kovi's numbers when he went to NJ. The numbers when you take into account time on the ice are in the same ball park as Vanek's numbers.

The system under Ruff seriesly lowered Vaneks offensive numbers.
convenient excuses dont change the facts

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07-25-2013, 01:33 PM
  #337
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Man, some people are seriously underrating Pavelski. I'd be all for the completely ridiculous theoretical trade proposals of Vanek for Strome + 1st or Couts + Read + 1st, but those are certainly not going to happen.

If we could Vanek for Pavelski I would definitely pull the trigger. Hasn't Pavelski been a playoff monster the last few years? He's a stud defensively while putting up 1st line center points. Worst case scenario is that he wants to test free agency too and we mvoe him at the deadline. Pavelski would be an ideal pick-up for cup contenders and I think we'd get a ton for him.

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07-25-2013, 01:35 PM
  #338
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well you do have to take into account the Don Waddell factor with those trades. Guy was an atrocious GM and Atlanta Spirit Group didnt care enough to fire him before he was allowed to make those moves. Didnt help that he waited way to long to address the Hossa/Kovy 'situations'.

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07-25-2013, 01:39 PM
  #339
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I agree on the need of a 2 way 3rd line center who can win draws.

At what cost is worth paying for a playing such as that? For a 3rd line Center role is there much of a difference between Gordon and Pavelski or another center other than salary.

Im concerned about the cost for him to be signed and once that pay is set how does it affect what Hodgson, Grigs, or Girgs may want if they view themselves as better than Pavelski in the sats line.
you should be concerned with building a winner... if all our young players reach their potential (here's a newsflash : They Won't!), it wont be a problem... we'll deal with that hypothetical bridge when we cross it (never).

And stop calling Pavelski a "3rd line center". He's a top 6 all around center. and that's the Sabres BIGGEST need.... now, through the rebuild, and into contendership

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07-25-2013, 01:49 PM
  #340
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There are different ways to skin the cat. The bottom line is that they desperately need a two-way center who can win the possession battle and play the tough minutes, thereby alleviating Hodgson and Grigorenko of that burden. Getting that player will improve the roster at no fewer than spots--the acquired player, and the likely coinciding improvements from Hodgson and Grigorenko. I would hope that Grigorenko or Hodgson (or Girgensons) can grow their entire game to the point where we could have two or three really good centers, but that's hope.

In today's NHL, Pavelski is worth $6m per going forward.
Pretty funny Zip.....we've needed that exact player since the summer of 2007.....

1. One train of thought, Why bring one in now????? Might as well let the kids develop into that role. This would go with the "tank" philosophy.

2. Bring one in now, makes us more competitive, and goes against our "tank" philosophy.

It's either or, not half "ass" here. If you are trading for a Pavalski type player, why are we trading Vanek????? If we are trading Vanek, it's for futures/youngins.

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07-25-2013, 01:58 PM
  #341
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Pretty funny Zip.....we've needed that exact player since the summer of 2007.....

1. One train of thought, Why bring one in now????? Might as well let the kids develop into that role. This would go with the "tank" philosophy.

2. Bring one in now, makes us more competitive, and goes against our "tank" philosophy.

It's either or, not half "ass" here. If you are trading for a Pavalski type player, why are we trading Vanek????? If we are trading Vanek, it's for futures/youngins.
a smarter train of thought would be to recognize the immense value Pavelski provides to the rebuild.

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07-25-2013, 01:59 PM
  #342
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you should be concerned with building a winner... if all our young players reach their potential (here's a newsflash : They Won't!), it wont be a problem... we'll deal with that hypothetical bridge when we cross it (never).

And stop calling Pavelski a "3rd line center". He's a top 6 all around center. and that's the Sabres BIGGEST need.... now, through the rebuild, and into contendership
Newsflash---the risk of him turning into an utter bust when he is 32 or 33 is just as likely as Hodgson or Grigs failing to be #1 or #2 Centers.

In order for them to develop properly tou want them playing with strong offensive players. If you trade for Pavelski and say he is the #1 Center he will get the top 2 wingers on the cup which will affect development of Hodgson and Grigorenko.

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07-25-2013, 02:04 PM
  #343
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Newsflash---the risk of him turning into an utter bust when he is 32 or 33 is just as likely as Hodgson or Grigs failing to be #1 or #2 Centers.
This is a complete joke... you really think that the chances of those things happening are equal!?

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07-25-2013, 02:05 PM
  #344
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Newsflash---the risk of him turning into an utter bust when he is 32 or 33 is just as likely as Hodgson or Grigs failing to be #1 or #2 Centers.
pulling made up factoids out of your butt doesn't fly...

Quote:
In order for them to develop properly tou want them playing with strong offensive players. If you trade for Pavelski and say he is the #1 Center he will get the top 2 wingers on the cup which will affect development of Hodgson and Grigorenko.
you are really married to the siliness of labels like #1 center and 3rd line. get more into lines being defined by roles, situations, capabilities, etc

Ott-Pavelski-Stafford - defensive zone starts, matchup shifts, difficult minutes

Ennis-Grigorenko/Hodgson-Leino - heavy o zone starts, secondary matchups

Foligno-Hodgson/Grigorenko-Armia - young line, 3rd in minutes, protected, secondary offense


get this "1st line, 2nd line" stuff out of your head.... it's antiquated

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07-25-2013, 02:15 PM
  #345
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Pavelski can also play wing as we've seen at times in SJ. His versatility would be an interesting fit for the Sabres if they are seeking possession players to help Grigorenko specifically (and perhaps Hodgson) as a sort of Hecht-esque defensive zone center, slipping back to wing on the attack.

That said, it seems unlikely the Sharks would move him for Vanek.

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07-25-2013, 02:15 PM
  #346
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Pavelski's versatility, faceoff ability, and two way play would certainly be a welcome to the Sabres.

I just doubt that the Sharks want to move him and that he'd sign an extension with the Sabres rebuilding.

I think he will be a hot commodity if he hits UFA.

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07-25-2013, 03:01 PM
  #347
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I've always thought the Sharks should trade one of Thornton/Marleau for defense and roll with Couture/Pavelski. They tried with the Brent Burns trade but he's probably now a winger.

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07-25-2013, 03:08 PM
  #348
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Apparently Tay Moo may not sign back up with the Ducks.

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07-25-2013, 03:39 PM
  #349
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This is a complete joke... you really think that the chances of those things happening are equal!?
As a measure relative to the cost---yes....evidence see Brad Richards and the talk of a compliance buyout on him after signing him big a yr ago.

History shows you can have a considerable drop off in your early 30s. Are there some that are still good--yes---but many many more drop off.

the same risk is there with Vanek that you need to consider.

i look at Pavelski in the same way I do Richards. there are good to have players who fit a role but they are not #1 Centers. As they age it will drop off.

I have said this before...many of these teams signing players to 8 yr deals (Getzlaf, Malkin, etc) may be worth it now over the next few years but these will be a big issue 5 yrs down the road when they are around 33-34 and their play does not justify their cap hit.

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07-25-2013, 03:41 PM
  #350
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As a measure relative to the cost---yes....evidence see Brad Richards and the talk of a compliance buyout on him after signing him big a yr ago.

History shows you can have a considerable drop off in your early 30s. Are there some that are still good--yes---but many many more drop off.

the same risk is there with Vanek that you need to consider.

i look at Pavelski in the same way I do Richards. there are good to have players who fit a role but they are not #1 Centers. As they age it will drop off.

I have said this before...many of these teams signing players to 8 yr deals (Getzlaf, Malkin, etc) may be worth it now over the next few years but these will be a big issue 5 yrs down the road when they are around 33-34 and their play does not justify their cap hit.
So, you're just never going to sign UFAs to long-term contracts? Friends, we've found Larry Quinn.

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