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2013 Offseason roster build thread part Additional Nauseum

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Old
07-23-2013, 02:21 PM
  #201
haseoke39
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Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
Where is the logical fallacy there? Because it's only wrong if you think the Sabres should have just given up Miller for a 2nd or a 3rd. Of course the Islanders would've given up the assets necessary if the Sabres were willing to take a severe underpayment for Miller, sure. But that's obviously not the case
I think the Sabres would do well to take a 2nd rounder for Miller right now, personally. They'll be in a much better place next year with an extra decent prospect and a better first rounder, that's for sure.

He's not going to be worth more at the deadline. I think the alternative is pretty much let him hurt your draft position for a year and then walk.

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07-23-2013, 02:23 PM
  #202
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We don't know what he was being offered for. You can certainly do more than offer him for a 1st and a blue chip prospect.
Schneider got a first, Bernier got a second and a prospect, both are younger cheaper and longer under control. So that demand would be a bit much.
What was offered is speculation, but if there was any decent offer I think he would be long gone.
I don't see much interest from other teams in him anyways with the shrinking cap, his salary and only this one year left.

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07-23-2013, 02:23 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
I think the Sabres would do well to take a 2nd rounder for Miller right now, personally. They'll be in a much better place next year with an extra decent prospect and a better first rounder, that's for sure.
What if you had a crystal ball and
w/ Miller = 6th pick
w/o Miller = 9th pick

would you still trade Miller for the 2nd rounder?

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07-23-2013, 02:26 PM
  #204
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Schneider got a first, Bernier got a second and a prospect, both are younger cheaper and longer under control. So that demand would be a bit much.
What was offered is speculation, but if there was any decent offer I think he would be long gone.
I don't see much interest from other teams in him anyways with the shrinking cap, his salary and only this one year left.
So here's the question: let's assume no one is actually interested in Miller, for any "decent" price. Is the team better off letting him play this year, hurt our draft position, and then walk?

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07-23-2013, 02:29 PM
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I think all of that reputation stuff is a fiction that goes away as soon as your talent develops. Nobody wanted to play for the Blackhawks until they had Toews and Kane and then Hossa went to them asking for a contract. It can certainly be done.

What's more, if you don't deal Miller for the best offer available at some point, he walks for nothing, and I don't think that does any favors to your organization's reputation, either. I just happen to think that offer is likely to get worse as the season goes on.

BTW, can you name a franchise that got ruined by attempting to tank?
That may be, but it's also possible that it gets better, too. If we're sitting in December and a couple of contenders are having major goaltending issues or dealing with injuries, they're going to come a-calling. Nobody has major goaltending issues in July.

Take Philly, for instance - if they're playing really well at midseason but are being held back by their horribly sub-par play in net, don't you think they'd be willing to part with more assets than they are currently? Or St. Louis, when Halak inevitably gets hurt again and Elliott can't shoulder the load? These band-aids are fine for now, but things change quickly. Name an asking price for Miller and go get it, don't just dump your best player for garbage.

While not specific to tanking, the annals of sport are littered with the carcasses of franchises set back several years by giving away franchise players for scraps and then dealing with the resulting fallout as no one wanted to sign with them. Parish/McHale?


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07-23-2013, 02:30 PM
  #206
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I think the Sabres would do well to take a 2nd rounder for Miller right now, personally. They'll be in a much better place next year with an extra decent prospect and a better first rounder, that's for sure.
Uh huh, and that's great and all, but again looking at the Islanders, they re-signed Nabokov, without giving up anything asset-wise, and he's making $3M less than Miller this season. The Islanders are pretty notorious for being averse to spending money and working loopholes to reach the salary cap floor. So is the difference between Miller and Nabokov worth more to the Islanders than a 2nd round pick and $3M?
Then of course, well, the Islanders could ask the Sabres to retain salary on Miller, but if the Sabres do that, they're going to do it to get a better return on a trade, not to make it easier for them to accept a lesser deal for Miller.
And, obviously, this is all completely moot if the Islanders are on Miller's no trade list and he doesn't want to waive.

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07-23-2013, 02:32 PM
  #207
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So here's the question: let's assume no one is actually interested in Miller, for any "decent" price. Is the team better off letting him play this year, hurt our draft position, and then walk?
In a theoretical world where everyone is a rational robot? Obviously dump him for whatever you can get.

In the real world where things like emotions exist? You don't trade a franchise player for scraps. Ever.

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07-23-2013, 02:37 PM
  #208
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So here's the question: let's assume no one is actually interested in Miller, for any "decent" price. Is the team better off letting him play this year, hurt our draft position, and then walk?
Hard to say, maybe Enroth gets some mental boost when he is the number one and hurts our draft position even more?
Problem is you first need someone to take him, you wrote you would take a second now, I would do it too, but you need someone offering one and fitting him in under the cap. And would you still take the second if we have to pay half of his salary?
And if you an other teams GM would you pay the second for Miller or sign Bryz for free and cheaper?

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07-23-2013, 02:38 PM
  #209
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That may be, but it's also possible that it gets better, too. If we're sitting in December and a couple of contenders are having major goaltending issues or dealing with injuries, they're going to come a-calling. Nobody has major goaltending issues in July.

Take Philly, for instance - if they're playing really well at midseason but are being held back by their horribly sub-par play in net, don't you think they'd be willing to part with more assets than they are currently? Or St. Louis, when Halak inevitably gets hurt again and Elliott can't shoulder the load? These band-aids are fine for now, but things change quickly. Name an asking price for Miller and go get it, don't just dump your best player for garbage.

While not specific to tanking, the annals of sport are littered with the carcasses of franchises set back several years by giving away franchise players for scraps. Parish/McHale?
No, I really don't think St. Louis and Philly will come back offering more than they offered before. If their goaltending is bad enough that they can't make a run with the guy they've got, I think the most likely thing is that they'll ride it out and wait to get Miller for free for next season. It's not worth the locker room drama to displace the starter midseason for a guy who's more than likely going to be taking a shellacking in our back end.

I don't know anything about Parish/McHale, but the internet makes it sound like they traded a good player for the 1st overall pick, plus a swap of 3rd for 13th. Sounds like a trade with good value going both ways that didn't work out for one team.

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07-23-2013, 02:40 PM
  #210
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Have you seen what the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers have done this offseason?

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9466869/lakers



I would argue that that approach is true in the NHL, as well.

We've seen what picking in the 10 to 13 range year after year has gotten the Sabres.
Yes we have seen what it does. It's given us one of the best prospect pools in the NHL.

And the NBA is utterly irrelevant to the NHL. Its a two round draft for a league where Individual players have FAR more influence on team success than the NHL.

In the NHL it's always been about having a very deep talent pool throughout the system. That allows you to be able to either develop the players you need or use those assets to trade for what you need.

The whole "lets try and lose to pick in the top 3" mentality as team building strategy is beyond daft. In order for it to pay off a couple of things need to happen.

1) the type of high end player you want has to actually be there. There is no guarantee that will be the case. The year Kane was drafted he was the only player of that caliber drafted at the top. i highly doubt the likes of JVR, Turris, Hickey or Alzner are who you have in mind when you talk about bottom out to draft an elite player. Those were the 4 guys drafted after Kane btw.

2) Even finishing with the worst record in the league you only have a 25% shot at the top pick. Finishing in the top 5 gives you progressively lower chances. Using the Kane draft as an example again. The team with the worst record that year was Philly. They were by far the worst and lost the draft lottery to the Hawks who were supposed to draft 5th.

So basically there is a large element of luck involved to be able to draft a franchise/elite player in the draft. That's of course assuming we were bad enough in the first place to have a shot at getting lucky.


Something a team can control is how many picks they have. As an example, Regier acquiring picks so he had 5 picks in the top 52 in the very deep 2013 draft. Having a lot of picks and a good scouting department is why we've been able to assemble a pretty good prospect group in fairly short order with only 1 top 10 pick. That seems like a smarter way to go than dumping players for nothing in the hope we are bad enough to win a lottery to draft an elite player.

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07-23-2013, 02:44 PM
  #211
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Uh huh, and that's great and all, but again looking at the Islanders, they re-signed Nabokov, without giving up anything asset-wise, and he's making $3M less than Miller this season. The Islanders are pretty notorious for being averse to spending money and working loopholes to reach the salary cap floor. So is the difference between Miller and Nabokov worth more to the Islanders than a 2nd round pick and $3M?
Then of course, well, the Islanders could ask the Sabres to retain salary on Miller, but if the Sabres do that, they're going to do it to get a better return on a trade, not to make it easier for them to accept a lesser deal for Miller.
And, obviously, this is all completely moot if the Islanders are on Miller's no trade list and he doesn't want to waive.
If the Sabres offered Miller at half salary for Nabokov and a 2nd, do you think the Isles don't bite? Then I would just let Nabby sit behind Enroth.

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In a theoretical world where everyone is a rational robot? Obviously dump him for whatever you can get.

In the real world where things like emotions exist? You don't trade a franchise player for scraps. Ever.
I guess I just don't see the value you see in emotions.

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Hard to say, maybe Enroth gets some mental boost when he is the number one and hurts our draft position even more?
Problem is you first need someone to take him, you wrote you would take a second now, I would do it too, but you need someone offering one and fitting him in under the cap. And would you still take the second if we have to pay half of his salary?
And if you an other teams GM would you pay the second for Miller or sign Bryz for free and cheaper?
Us paying half his salary means nothing, seriously. We're way under the cap and money doesn't matter to Terry. I throw in that money into any deal and it doesn't affect how I value it at all.

If I were a random, hypothetical GM who needed a goalie and could choose between signing Bryz or trading for Miller with a 2nd, I would trade for Miller. I think he's substantially better.

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07-23-2013, 02:49 PM
  #212
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Yes we have seen what it does. It's given us one of the best prospect pools in the NHL.

And the NBA is utterly irrelevant to the NHL. Its a two round draft for a league where Individual players have FAR more influence on team success than the NHL.

In the NHL it's always been about having a very deep talent pool throughout the system. That allows you to be able to either develop the players you need or use those assets to trade for what you need.

The whole "lets try and lose to pick in the top 3" mentality as team building strategy is beyond daft. In order for it to pay off a couple of things need to happen.

1) the type of high end player you want has to actually be there. There is no guarantee that will be the case. The year Kane was drafted he was the only player of that caliber drafted at the top. i highly doubt the likes of JVR, Turris, Hickey or Alzner are who you have in mind when you talk about bottom out to draft an elite player. Those were the 4 guys drafted after Kane btw.

2) Even finishing with the worst record in the league you only have a 25% shot at the top pick. Finishing in the top 5 gives you progressively lower chances. Using the Kane draft as an example again. The team with the worst record that year was Philly. They were by far the worst and lost the draft lottery to the Hawks who were supposed to draft 5th.

So basically there is a large element of luck involved to be able to draft a franchise/elite player in the draft. That's of course assuming we were bad enough in the first place to have a shot at getting lucky.


Something a team can control is how many picks they have. As an example, Regier acquiring picks so he had 5 picks in the top 52 in the very deep 2013 draft. Having a lot of picks and a good scouting department is why we've been able to assemble a pretty good prospect group in fairly short order with only 1 top 10 pick. That seems like a smarter way to go than dumping players for nothing in the hope we are bad enough to win a lottery to draft an elite player.
You're playing the odds, of course. But the odds are really strongly in favor of the top 3 picks.

We have a deep pipeline of mediocre players, yes. That just means we still need high end guys. How do you get high end guys?

Take TSN's most recent list of the top 50 plays in the NHL. Of them, 20 were drafted in the top 3 picks. Of the top 20, fully half were drafted in the top 3 picks. If your goal is to get an elite player, your odds are about as good with just picks 1-3 as with the every pick between 4 and 210.

I like those odds. I think what the team need is that kind of elite talent, and you don't get it by stocking up on second rounders.

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07-23-2013, 02:49 PM
  #213
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If the Sabres offered Miller at half salary for Nabokov and a 2nd, do you think the Isles don't bite? Then I would just let Nabby sit behind Enroth.
That's nice and all, but the Sabres aren't going to do that trade.

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Us paying half his salary means nothing, seriously. We're way under the cap and money doesn't matter to Terry. I throw in that money into any deal and it doesn't affect how I value it at all.
This is 100% a product of being a fan and has absolutely nothing to do with how actual teams operate. It's easy to give up assets, such as money, for nothing when it isn't your money. The fact is, though, that things like money and cap space are assets and teams just don't give those things away unless it's worth their while to do so.

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07-23-2013, 02:58 PM
  #214
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So here's the question: let's assume no one is actually interested in Miller, for any "decent" price. Is the team better off letting him play this year, hurt our draft position, and then walk?
Am I the only one who questions this assumption?

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07-23-2013, 03:01 PM
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That's nice and all, but the Sabres aren't going to do that trade.


This is 100% a product of being a fan and has absolutely nothing to do with how actual teams operate. It's easy to give up assets, such as money, for nothing when it isn't your money. The fact is, though, that things like money and cap space are assets and teams just don't give those things away unless it's worth their while to do so.
You're Darcy, and you go to Mr. I'll-Drill-A-Well and tell him you want to spend within $10M of the cap or so, can you please do it without anyone holding the painter's hand?

That conversation is going to be short and to the point.

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07-23-2013, 03:02 PM
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You're playing the odds, of course. But the odds are really strongly in favor of the top 3 picks.

We have a deep pipeline of mediocre players, yes. That just means we still need high end guys. How do you get high end guys?

Take TSN's most recent list of the top 50 plays in the NHL. Of them, 20 were drafted in the top 3 picks. Of the top 20, fully half were drafted in the top 3 picks. If your goal is to get an elite player, your odds are about as good with just picks 1-3 as with the every pick between 4 and 210.

I like those odds. I think what the team need is that kind of elite talent, and you don't get it by stocking up on second rounders.
If you truly believe we have nothing but mediocre players in the pipeline......

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07-23-2013, 03:02 PM
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No, I really don't think St. Louis and Philly will come back offering more than they offered before. If their goaltending is bad enough that they can't make a run with the guy they've got, I think the most likely thing is that they'll ride it out and wait to get Miller for free for next season. It's not worth the locker room drama to displace the starter midseason for a guy who's more than likely going to be taking a shellacking in our back end.

sounds awfully hypocritical to previous statements

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07-23-2013, 03:04 PM
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Am I the only one who questions this assumption?
No you're not.


Things are very simple and straight forward in his world. Take away players x and y and you will finish with a top 3 pick. Then we draft Sidney Crosby jr and win the Cup 3 years later.

It would be great if it was that easy.

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07-23-2013, 03:05 PM
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If you truly believe we have nothing but mediocre players in the pipeline......
Put it this way: I truly believe that the most likely outcome of us simply letting this group of youngsters develop is to bounce around the 6th seed. Some kids will make it, some won't, and no one really strikes me as a franchise player.

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07-23-2013, 03:07 PM
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No you're not.


Things are very simple and straight forward in his world. Take away players x and y and you will finish with a top 3 pick. Then we draft Sidney Crosby jr and win the Cup 3 years later.

It would be great if it was that easy.
Every five year plan involves massive assumptions and best guesses. I just happen to think these are the most likely outcomes.

If you think the most likely outcome of trading Miller and Vanek is that we improve or something, that would be the counterargument.

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07-23-2013, 03:07 PM
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Put it this way: I truly believe that the most likely outcome of us simply letting this group of youngsters develop is to bounce around the 6th seed. Some kids will make it, some won't, and no one really strikes me as a franchise player.
If any of the same exact players were drafted #1-#3, you would think differently.

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07-23-2013, 03:09 PM
  #222
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You're Darcy, and you go to Mr. I'll-Drill-A-Well and tell him you want to spend within $10M of the cap or so, can you please do it without anyone holding the painter's hand?

That conversation is going to be short and to the point.
You keep raising this point, and it's nice and all, but isn't really related to anything. What possible reason is there for Darcy to just give away assets for nothing? It's stupid asset management and just because Pegula can afford to spend money doesn't mean he should (from an asset management perspective), or more importantly will, just for the hell of it.

The whole point of having money as an asset is to actually use that asset to get something in return not to just give it away because you can.

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07-23-2013, 03:15 PM
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You keep raising this point, and it's nice and all, but isn't really related to anything. What possible reason is there for Darcy to just give away assets for nothing? It's stupid asset management and just because Pegula can afford to spend money doesn't mean he should (from an asset management perspective), or more importantly will, just for the hell of it.

The whole point of having money as an asset is to actually use that asset to get something in return not to just give it away because you can.
I agree. But money is a different kind of asset. For us, money is essentially limitless. With the salary cap and team revenue coming in, Terry's never going to be able to run out of money, or even substantially impair his fortune. So he might have to run the team at a $10M loss. He's got what, $4B? He can afford to run this team at a $160M loss every year in perpetuity just based on a 4% interest rate in the safest mutual fund you can imagine.

For something to have value, it has to have scarcity. Terry's money, for our purposes, is limitless. So if that money makes a trade happen that wouldn't otherwise, whatever value you get is essentially something for nothing.

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07-23-2013, 03:24 PM
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You're playing the odds, of course. But the odds are really strongly in favor of the top 3 picks.

We have a deep pipeline of mediocre players, yes. That just means we still need high end guys. How do you get high end guys?

Take TSN's most recent list of the top 50 plays in the NHL. Of them, 20 were drafted in the top 3 picks. Of the top 20, fully half were drafted in the top 3 picks. If your goal is to get an elite player, your odds are about as good with just picks 1-3 as with the every pick between 4 and 210.

I like those odds. I think what the team need is that kind of elite talent, and you don't get it by stocking up on second rounders.
So you don't believe in stocking up on second rounders, but you would pay Miller 3 million dollars to pay on another team to get one?

And those top picks don't work out more often than not, look at the oilers or Tampa who picked before us again.

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07-23-2013, 03:24 PM
  #225
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Put it this way: I truly believe that the most likely outcome of us simply letting this group of youngsters develop is to bounce around the 6th seed. Some kids will make it, some won't, and no one really strikes me as a franchise player.
So we couldn't say, trade some of the excess youth we have accumulated for upgrades at the NHL level, like what Ottawa just did with Ryan?

And what franchise players were on the 05-07 teams?

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