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Phoenix XCVIII: 5tayin' Alive

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Old
07-31-2013, 06:47 PM
  #526
Ernie
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I suspect a few minor shareholders dropping out won't wreck the deal. But if the issue is with Fortress... look out.

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07-31-2013, 06:49 PM
  #527
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetsfan79 View Post
So hypothetically, if the deals collapses, I assume the NHL would be in lame duck situation for a year?
Forget "lame".... that duck would be dead.

A season in Glendale with everyone knowing the team is going somewhere else... you haven't seen bad attendance yet. The only reason attendance in Glendale hasn't been worse is because of the façade that the NHL has put up saying the team is staying and we just need to find an owner.

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07-31-2013, 06:52 PM
  #528
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
Prior to the Team Gosbee lease, all city arena revenues (ticket surcharges, etc) were used towards the approx $10MM/yr construction debt. The team never actually generated enough revenue to cover the debt but that's pretty much besides the point by now.

Under the approved lease, all arena revenues (including some new revenues such as a portion of naming rights, etc) are pledged to offset the AMF $15MM. The most generous estimates indicate total city revenues will be around $11MM. The city revenues aren't guaranteed and there's no reason to expect they'll be anywhere close to $11MM but it's okay to dream.

That means the RSE lease creates, at minimum, a structural deficit of $4MM per year. The sales taxes generated at and around Westgate will close some of that gap. The center has done about $3MM per year in tax receipts. Of course, not all of those tax receipts are the result of hockey events but whatever, we'll use the Jim Colson Method and just credit it all to the team.

Under the absolute best case scenario, which has about a 0% chance of actually happening, the RSE lease will be self sustaining after it consumes all city arena and Westgate revenues for the entire year. What's not covered? The $10MM in debt servicing for construction.
Yep, the city's own analysis indicated the best course of action was to demolish the facility instead to continue to incur the operational costs (if you believe their analysis)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
"Glendale debt set a two-year high and yield spreads swelled as much as 20 percent after the city council on July 2 cleared a lease paying the team’s prospective owners $15 million annually for 15 years to manage the facility." - Bloomberg

Visionaries On Patrol

Go figure, Wall Street doesn't seem to have the same view as the financial illiterates who praised the deal for it's economic benefits.
It's a hit piece by the evil financial media. Bloomberg however published this today, which said the yields in the bond market broadly hit two year highs today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...r-outlook.html

The spread it telling though.

"Tax-exempt general obligations of the city were also penalized. Bonds maturing in July 2021 traded July 19 with a spread of 1.69 percentage points above AAA munis, 31 percent more than in May"

This means the market has already downgraded them, even if the rating agencies have not.

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07-31-2013, 06:54 PM
  #529
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie View Post
I suspect a few minor shareholders dropping out won't wreck the deal. But if the issue is with Fortress... look out.
I disagree. The equity is already very thin.

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07-31-2013, 07:10 PM
  #530
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
Bettman really, really likes his hockey in Glendale and he's breaking every rule in the NHL constitution to keep it there. I'm not sure if we have yet seen just how far he will go.
This is just it. What a farce. The NHL is ignoring markets where there is huge pent-up demand and clinging for dear life to markets where there is barely any demand. How is that a healthy business model? It's not.

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07-31-2013, 07:12 PM
  #531
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
So, shortly after the "no later than date" that renders the agreement null and void. That's nice.
There's an expiration date shortly? haha, nice.

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07-31-2013, 07:21 PM
  #532
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charon of Styx View Post
The over / under has him being one of us peasants.... Yet again by august 11th 1am pacific time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom ServoMST3K View Post
Can I lay vcash on that, I bet he makes aug 15, easy
.... now now guys. Play nice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomas L View Post
There's an expiration date shortly? haha, nice.
I thought it was August 4th but as thats a Sunday, then the 5th it is, ya. Thereafter, null & void... unless extended.... if thats even possible.

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07-31-2013, 07:25 PM
  #533
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomas L View Post
"Tax-exempt general obligations of the city were also penalized. Bonds maturing in July 2021 traded July 19 with a spread of 1.69 percentage points above AAA munis, 31 percent more than in May"

This means the market has already downgraded them, even if the rating agencies have not.
I'm not a bond yield expert, but isn't a 1.69% spread some kind of huge number? Yahoo's rates for muni bonds has almost identical yields for AAA and AA bonds over 5- and 10-year maturities, and a 0.30-0.40% spread between AAA and A bonds, yet the spread between AAA and Glendale on 8-year bonds would be 1.69%? Am I looking at the wrong data?

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07-31-2013, 07:30 PM
  #534
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Craig Morgan ‏@cmorganfoxaz 1h
Restating tweets from earlier this week: The #Coyotes sale is on track for closing by Monday deadline; NHL BOG will approve deal this week.

David Hoffman ‏@mrhoffman02 58m
@cmorganfoxaz is the story about RSE having a financing problem not true?

Craig Morgan
‏@cmorganfoxaz
@mrhoffman02 I can I only tell you what I've heard, but based on that info, there is no truth to that report.
.........................

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07-31-2013, 07:31 PM
  #535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barneyg View Post
I'm not a bond yield expert, but isn't a 1.69% spread some kind of huge number? Yahoo's rates for muni bonds has almost identical yields for AAA and AA bonds over 5- and 10-year maturities, and a 0.30-0.40% spread between AAA and A bonds, yet the spread between AAA and Glendale on 8-year bonds would be 1.69%? Am I looking at the wrong data?
I believe you're correct, but that may be a taxable spread rather than tax-exempt (as that table shows). The May spread was apparently 127, which still seems very high for tax exempt.

I just keyed in on the change.


Last edited by OthmarAmmann: 07-31-2013 at 07:38 PM.
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07-31-2013, 07:32 PM
  #536
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Originally Posted by Thomas L View Post
This means the market has already downgraded them, even if the rating agencies have not.
No worries, new asset class: Visionary Bonds

Backed by intellectual capital of the Glendale City Council. You're going to like the prospectus.

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07-31-2013, 07:37 PM
  #537
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Today in IEH history

Let's see where we were three years ago today!

Quote:
Originally Posted by David_99 View Post
There seems to be too much talk of being "Out of our hands" & "Not my problem" from all sides.

Ice Edge: We're working very hard with the CoG. Then we'll worry about the NHL BOG.
Ice Edge PR: We've got to buy the team from the NHL before working with CoG.
NHL: We've left it up to the CoG. They have a deadline of December 31st.
CoG: We haven't been talking to Ice Edge. It's between them and the NHL.

Are all parties just sitting by a phone somewhere, waiting for the other side to call!?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Meanwhile, can anyone figure out the rationale for the August 6th deadline for negotiations with IEH that was cited by the City of Glendale spokeswoman? I suppose that might be close to the end of the 60 days of (non)-exclusivity, but since the exclusivity has always been a moot issue can anyone think of why a deadline in August? Does it indicate that the City of Glendale has basically told IEH that unless they come up with proof of financial capacity by then, Glendale is going to cease to deal with them? It doesn't seem like that would be the final date for finalizing a lease agreement because Glendale seemed to indicate that not much negotiation has been conducted with IEH in the absence of the financial proof. Also, Glendale has to put in place other revenue streams (via CFD) to address the current MOU with IEH, don't they? The current CFD is only for City of Glendale properties, which only addresses some of the CFD revenue contemplated in the MOU.
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter sullivan View Post
i think the august 6th deadline was just a carry over from the original agreement.

However, Frisoni was a uncertain whether the two sides have to complete the talks by Aug. 6. That deadline, mentioned in the Republic story, was when the exclusivity deal ran out, but not necessarily the time to negotiate.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/bre...-99447569.html

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07-31-2013, 07:38 PM
  #538
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Originally Posted by Glacial View Post
What is Mike Sunnucks' source this time? We know he isn't very adventurous with investigative journalism or producing original material.
How ironic would it be if Sunnucks is the one who breaks the story that this deal is dead? Its like Neville Longbottom standing up to Voldermort at the end of Harry Potter.

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07-31-2013, 07:41 PM
  #539
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
CF - Great to see you chiming in again. So, I am trying to understand what you mean by this. I see the parking surcharges, ticket surcharges, naming rights as being the pledge for the AMF. Were they already dedicated to construction debt? Or, are you speaking of the case where no ancillary income streams exist, and how the 15M/yr is funded BEFORE it gets partially returned by those ancillary streams.....??? Thanks.
It's very interesting that the parking revenue that was going to be used in the city bond issue in the Hulsizer deal and now being "given" to the city by RSE was originally pledged to pay for the arena debt. (see highlighted bits below.)

How many times can a pledged stream of revenue be used for purposes other than it was intended for?

Another question: how can politicians lie so blatantly and citizens be so naive and numb, or is that dumb, forgetting what was said a mere 11 years ago?

You may be astonished by what is said at the page where I dug the following up.... unless that is you've seen the page before....


Quote:
Q. 8 How is the project going to be paid for?

The city proposes to issue a combined $180 million of general obligation and municipal property corporation bonds. Our assumptions at this point are that this $180 million loan would cost the city about $414 million over a 30-year period if we conservatively assume the $180 million is amortized over a 30-year period at a 6.5% interest rate. Annual debt payments beginning in Fiscal Year 2003-04 will be paid from sales taxes generated by the surrounding retail project, estimated at $224 million over 30 years. Parking and shared arena revenues will generate approximately $90 million in additional funding for debt payment over 30 years. The remaining $100 million over a 30-year period would be for general obligation (GO) debt payments to cover the cost of public improvements such as infrastructure and street improvements and park and open space elements included in the development project. This GO debt will be made from existing property tax collections, with no increase in the overall property tax rate.

source:
http://hockey.ballparks.com/NHL/Phoe...s/articles.htm
article by Marty Sauerzopf
The Arizona Republic
April 03, 2002 17:05:00

There's a lot more articles leading up to the arena being built in Glendale
...btw, it was posted here within the past couple of days that sales tax revenues from Westgate were a paltry $2.5 million last year versus the obviously overstated $7.5 million hoped for (see highlighted bits above - $224 million / 30 years.)

Some of the other questions (complete with answers) in the article are:

Q. 1 Glendale has never seemed interested in attracting sports venues such as baseball spring training facilities before. Why was it interested in this arena?

Q. 2 Why didn’t the arena end up at Manistee?

Q. 3 Why did Glendale take this deal from Scottsdale?

Q. 4 It took Scottsdale two years to work on this deal and Glendale did it in one month. How could it work so fast in Glendale?

Q. 5 Scottsdale residents got to vote on the Los Arcos project. Why didn’t Glendale residents get to vote on this project?

Q. 6 Why didn’t the public get to have input into this project?

Q. 7 Will we get to have citizen participation in the future?

Q. 8 How is the project going to be paid for? (... answer in quote above)

Q. 9 Why are my tax dollars being used to pay for this arena project? (... beside other mumbo jumbo I like the sentence in answer "The only public monies we are committing are bonds that have already been authorized by our citizens in a 1999 Bond Election.")

Q. 10 Will adding General Obligation bond debt negatively effect any of the city’s current or planned projects or services? (... services, who needs stinkin' services?)

Q. 12 I feel there are other areas of our city, especially older ones, that need improving more than we need an arena. How could having an arena possibly help those issues?

Q. 13 Why is Glendale doing this by itself? Why aren’t we doing this with all or some of the Westmarc member cities?

Q. 14 What is going to happen with the zoning on the Ellman property?

Q. 15 I read in the newspaper that Ellman expects Glendale to build him a practice facility. Is that true?

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07-31-2013, 07:41 PM
  #540
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The rumors are only slightly true, I took my ball and went home...

There, I admitted it. I'm one of the investors, I'm quite ashamed to be associated with Tony LeBlanc, but hey, we all make mistakes. This was one mistake I planned on correcting. I have this thing for buying stocks in sports teams (own part of the Greenbay Packers). I planned on investing $5000 towards the yotes hoping to turn it into $500.... wait that's not right?! Is it?! That's how you make smart investments right?! I'm so confused.



Seriously though, wonder if Georgy finally figured out he was the cash camel and nothing more, the guy is the ONLY one in RSE who has any money at all, so why is Tony or Daryl the outspoken "leaders"? If I were Gosbee I would DEMAND controlling stake and nothing less, if the others gave me any lip I'd send them and their clowny ***** packing. IceEDGE Holdings, LOL!


Last edited by ajmidd12: 07-31-2013 at 07:48 PM.
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Old
07-31-2013, 07:51 PM
  #541
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajmidd12 View Post
The rumors are only slightly true, I took my ball and went home...

There, I admitted it. I'm one of the investors, I'm quite ashamed to be associated with Tony LeBlanc, but hey, we all make mistakes. This was one mistake I planned on correcting. I have this thing for buying stocks in sports teams (own part of the Greenbay Packers). I planned on investing $5000 towards the yotes hoping to turn it into $500.... wait that's not right?! Is it?! That's how you make smart investments right?! I'm so confused.



Seriously though, wonder if Georgy finally figured out he was the cash camel and nothing more, the guy is the ONLY one in RSE who has any money at all, so why is Tony or Daryl the outspoken "leaders"? If I were Gosbee I would DEMAND controlling stake.
Judge Redfeld T. Baum stated it best...

During the original 2009 bankruptcy hearings the presiding Judge Redfeld T. Baum said he read this, from an NHL expert's own report:

To quote:

'How to make a small fortune by owning a professional sports franchise.'

Start with a large fortune and buy an NHL franchise.

Sources: Professional Sports Team Bankruptcy videos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKnjQ_TQUsI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f19wHHtZIm4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpEqgnUOM7M

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07-31-2013, 08:11 PM
  #542
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enarwpg View Post
You may be astonished by what is said at the page where I dug the following up.... unless that is you've seen the page before....
Great post. Fair amount of time spent digging that up, and ya, parts of it still do astonish as you suggest. Theres just so much more to this entire story that really, despite this phenomena of a Mega Thread, were really just scratching the surface. Some seriously deep waters here, volumes of information relevant thats either completely buried or would take hours upon hours of research to uncover, connecting the dots, filling in the blanks.

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07-31-2013, 08:28 PM
  #543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/n...g.html?ana=twt



Daryl Jones ‏@HedgeyeDJ 40m
@mikesunx report that Ice Arizona is having financing issues is categorically wrong. #HereToStay
Jones is an irresponsible hack idiot journalist...shame on him for being a biased dimwit.

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07-31-2013, 08:31 PM
  #544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blamebettman View Post
Jones is an irresponsible hack idiot journalist...shame on him for being a biased dimwit.
Jones isnt a journalist/reporter, he's part of IceArizona/RSE/Ice Edge. You referring to Mike Sunnucks of the PBJ?

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07-31-2013, 09:29 PM
  #545
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
"Glendale debt set a two-year high and yield spreads swelled as much as 20 percent after the city council on July 2 cleared a lease paying the team’s prospective owners $15 million annually for 15 years to manage the facility." - Bloomberg

Visionaries On Patrol

Go figure, Wall Street doesn't seem to have the same view as the financial illiterates who praised the deal for it's economic benefits.
And so it begins ....

Well I guess the race is on. Who declares bankruptcy first? The COG or RSE?

Next thread title:"Race to Bankruptcy"

What a pathetic ****show.

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07-31-2013, 09:45 PM
  #546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wpgallday1960 View Post
And so it begins ....

Well I guess the race is on. Who declares bankruptcy first? The COG or RSE?

Next thread title:"Race to Bankruptcy"

What a pathetic ****show.
To keep things in perspective, that article isn't claiming that the city is near bankruptcy. They're at least a handful of bad decisions away from that.

Cities usually only declare bankruptcy in situations where they are facing depopulation and already pay high taxes. Neither of these would seem to apply to Glendale.

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07-31-2013, 10:45 PM
  #547
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie View Post
To keep things in perspective, that article isn't claiming that the city is near bankruptcy. They're at least a handful of bad decisions away from that.

Cities usually only declare bankruptcy in situations where they are facing depopulation and already pay high taxes. Neither of these would seem to apply to Glendale.
In the last 60 years we have averaged one city filing per year. That includes about 8 in the past few years. So there is no real track record on Chapter 9 filings. In a previous life I worked in the bankruptcy practice at PWC in New York, I never saw a Chapter 9. Anyone who claims to be an expert on Chapter 9 is a liar. Whe Detroit filed one of the people on Bloomberg TV said "we're all going to learn together" As far as I know there is no bankruptcy prediction model for governments (for corporates there is the Z-Score, Z', and Z''). Without knowing what assets Glendale has, the income of the residents, etc its hard to make predictions on whether its going to be the next Detroit. My guess is they can sell stuff off if they really get hard up for cash and if the Valley recovers they can make some money off development fees etc.

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07-31-2013, 11:01 PM
  #548
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From this citizen's opinion, he has had enough of Councilmember Chavira...

To quote:

"Chavira’s vote change only enhances speculation over what exactly did happen and what alleged “incentives” may have been offered in those private meetings with the NHL. Oh, we are now told by our acting city attorney that those meetings were only to “meet and greet.” But why, then, the need to stagger those private meetings with small groups of councilmembers, instead of having just one big happy get-together with all of them present over some coffee and donuts? Meet and greet indeed."

Source: http://www.glendalestar.com/opinion/...a4bcf887a.html

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07-31-2013, 11:06 PM
  #549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie View Post
I suspect a few minor shareholders dropping out won't wreck the deal. But if the issue is with Fortress... look out.
Well it depends on how much the minority shareholders are pulling off the table and who is expected to ante up. If 2 guys totally $5million drop out, I wonder if Gosbee goes "yeah I'm in for another $5million" even he has to have his breaking point.

I am just speculating but the addition of Global Spectrum and the guarantee to Glendale seem like major changes that if I was a lender I would be worried about. A big sticking point is where would Glendale fall in the priority list if RSE has to sell the team. I honestly don't know.

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07-31-2013, 11:08 PM
  #550
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Killion View Post
.... now now guys. Play nice.



I thought it was August 4th but as thats a Sunday, then the 5th it is, ya. Thereafter, null & void... unless extended.... if thats even possible.
Come on Killion, you've followed this sad saga long enough to know deadlines don't mean anything when it comes to: the NHL, Glendale, hockey in the desert and dare I say it relocation.

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