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Weighted Standard Deviations

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07-25-2013, 05:20 PM
  #1
AD1066
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Weighted Standard Deviations

Hi everyone,
I'm working on a little project out of curiosity and would greatly appreciate some input. I've put together a spreadsheet of stats from the 2012-2013 season that contains the following data:

Player, Age, Team, Position, Games Played, Goals, Assists, Points, Goals Created, Plus/Minus, PIM, Shots, S%, Hits, Blocked Shots, Missed Shots, Giveaways, Takeaways, TOI, ATOI, EV, PP, SH, Game Winners, FOW, FOL, and FO% - a pretty exhaustive list.

What I'm trying to do is to create an aggregate measure of a player's performance based on a weighted average of their standard deviation in every category, and see how well that list approximates their perceived performance last season. Ex:

Player A's "performance" = (A's STDV of games played * weight1) + (A's STDV of goals * weight2) + (A's STDV of assists * weight3) ... You get the idea.

What I'm looking for help with is assigning weights to the different categories. I'm sorry if this is vague, but I'm not really sure how to approach this.

Should goals weigh more than assists?
Do we give the same value to ES and PP points?
Should PIM or missed shots carry a negative weight?
Should game winners be taken into consideration? Should faceoffs?
Etc, etc.

Here is a link to the forwards spreadsheet. Thanks in advance for any and all suggestions.

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07-25-2013, 06:42 PM
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torero
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why not ? it is interesting to know how consistent some players are relative to a field.

dividing the standard deviation by the average ... you get a measure of dispersion. which is always nice ... you can go ahead by integrating shorter periods to see where the player stand in his evolution / regression.

could be cool.
it is a top down approach ... you can choose a player according to criterias ...
like this you build the team of the future !!

too often the bottom up approach is used ... probably a mistake.

keep up with you great ideas.

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