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The 2006, 2008 and 2009 Drafts- Timmins' worst ever?

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07-24-2013, 09:28 AM
  #1
FrankMTL
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The 2006, 2008 and 2009 Drafts- Timmins' worst ever?

I decided to go back and have a quick look at how some of our 2008 and 2009 draftees are progressing and as I thought, we don't have much potential left.

2009 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2009 Entry 18 1 Louis Leblanc C Omaha Lancers [USHL] 42 5 5 10 28
2009 Entry 65 3 Joonas Nattinen C Blues Jrs. (Finland)
2009 Entry 79 3 Mac Bennett D Hotchkiss School (Conn.)
2009 Entry 109 4 Alexander Avtsin R Dynamo Moscow-2 (Russia)
2009 Entry 139 5 Gabriel Dumont C Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 13 1 2 3 13
2009 Entry 169 6 Dustin Walsh C Kingston Voyageurs [OJHL]
2009 Entry 199 7 Mike Cichy C Indiana Ice [USHL]
2009 Entry 211 7 Petteri Simila G Karpat Jrs. (Finland)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2008 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2008 Entry 56 2 Danny Kristo R US National Under 18 Team
2008 Entry 86 3 Steve Quailer R Sioux City Musketeers [USHL]
2008 Entry 116 4 Jason Missiaen G Peterborough Petes [OHL]
2008 Entry 138 5 Maxim Trunev F Cherepovets Jr. (Russia)
2008 Entry 206 7 Patrick Johnson C U. of Wisconsin [WCHA]

Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2006 Entry 20 1 David Fischer D Apple Valley H.S. (Minn)
2006 Entry 49 2 Ben Maxwell C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 47 2 6 8 19
2006 Entry 53 2 Mathieu Carle D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL] 3 0 0 0 4
2006 Entry 66 3 Ryan White C Calgary Hitmen [WHL] 89 3 8 11 182
2006 Entry 139 5 Pavel Valentenko D Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik [Russia]
2006 Entry 199 7 Cameron Cepek D Portland Winter Hawks [WHL]



Obviously 2006 and 2008 were real stinkers as our only decent prospect was traded in Danny Kristo, but we didn't have a first round pick in 2008, so that obviously doesn't help. For the 2009 draft however, its looking worse and worse. Yes Leblanc, Bennett and Dumont have NHL potential, but then again, they're far from locks. Normally after 5 years is when you start reaping the benefits of your drafts, but those three have really put us behind and is why were seeing the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts leap frog these. In my opinion (although it still may be early for 2009 draft), these are Timmins worst with our organization and have really affected our rebuilding. He obviously made up for it with 2007, but he basically had 3 of 4 drafts between 2006 and 2009 be almost total disasters.

So far 2010-2012 look much stronger, but it hurts to look back those drafts and see that we pretty much came up empty handed.


Last edited by FrankMTL: 07-24-2013 at 01:09 PM.
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07-24-2013, 09:38 AM
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Dagistitsyn
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Ugh.. Maxwell over Lucic.

****. I like to try to forget that.

Would have made such an insane difference for us.

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07-24-2013, 09:40 AM
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In terms of what they'll do for us, 2008 is the worst. Then 2006 and 2009.

In terms of talent that should play in the NHL, it's 2008, 2009 and then 2006.

I'm holding hope for Leblanc. Also, Dumont looks like he might be a 4th line centre and Bennett is still a year from playing in the AHL, though I imagine he'll be traded soon.

Kristo/Leblanc
Bennett/Dumont
White
Qualier
Trunev.

Yeah, those were some terrible drafts.

Though, in 2006 we had our 1st AND 2 2nds and still did terrible

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07-24-2013, 09:41 AM
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MasterD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankMTL View Post
I decided to go back and have a quick look at how some of our 2008 and 2009 draftees are progressing and as I thought, we don't have much potential left.

2009 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2009 Entry 18 1 Louis Leblanc C Omaha Lancers [USHL] 42 5 5 10 28
2009 Entry 65 3 Joonas Nattinen C Blues Jrs. (Finland)
2009 Entry 79 3 Mac Bennett D Hotchkiss School (Conn.)
2009 Entry 109 4 Alexander Avtsin R Dynamo Moscow-2 (Russia)
2009 Entry 139 5 Gabriel Dumont C Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 13 1 2 3 13
2009 Entry 169 6 Dustin Walsh C Kingston Voyageurs [OJHL]
2009 Entry 199 7 Mike Cichy C Indiana Ice [USHL]
2009 Entry 211 7 Petteri Simila G Karpat Jrs. (Finland)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2008 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2008 Entry 56 2 Danny Kristo R US National Under 18 Team
2008 Entry 86 3 Steve Quailer R Sioux City Musketeers [USHL]
2008 Entry 116 4 Jason Missiaen G Peterborough Petes [OHL]
2008 Entry 138 5 Maxim Trunev F Cherepovets Jr. (Russia)
2008 Entry 206 7 Patrick Johnson C U. of Wisconsin [WCHA]

Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2006 Entry 20 1 David Fischer D Apple Valley H.S. (Minn)
2006 Entry 49 2 Ben Maxwell C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 47 2 6 8 19
2006 Entry 53 2 Mathieu Carle D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL] 3 0 0 0 4
2006 Entry 66 3 Ryan White C Calgary Hitmen [WHL] 89 3 8 11 182
2006 Entry 139 5 Pavel Valentenko D Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik [Russia]
2006 Entry 199 7 Cameron Cepek D Portland Winter Hawks [WHL]



Obviously 2006 and 2008 were real stinkers as our only decent prospect was traded in Danny Kristo, but we didn't have a first round pick in 2008, so that obviously doesn't help. For the 2009 draft however, its looking worse and worse. Yes Leblanc, Bennett and Dumont have NHL potential, but then again, they're far from locks. Normally after 5 years is when you start reaping the benefits of your drafts, but those three have really put us behind and is why were seeing the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts leap frog these. In my opinion (although it still may be early for 2009 draft), these are Timmins worst with our organization and have really affected our rebuilding. He obviously made up for it with 2007, but he basically had 3 of 4 drafts between 2006 and 2009 be almost total disasters.

So far 2010-2012 look much stronger, but it hurts to look back those drafts and see that we pretty much came up empty handed.
I can't find any link, but I remember that NHL teams generally get 1 to 2 NHL players per draft, on average. That means some years they'll have 3, some years they'll have none.

In 2003 we chose
Andrei Kostytsin
Lapierre
O'Byrne
Halak

In 2004 we took
Chipchura
Emelin
Grabovski
Streit

In 2005 we drafted
Price
Latendresse
D'Agostini
Sergei Kostytsin

In 2007 we drafted
McDonagh
Pacioretty
Subban
Weber

In 2010 we took
Tinordi
Gallagher

All those players played in the NHL for a decent quantity of games. Picking the 3 years where we were unsuccessful (YET! Who know who the next Emelin is, making it in a few years? ) seems very short-sighted and slightly dishonest IMO.

We have had a great drafting average with Timmins as head scout. Could we have drafted more high end players? Probably, yes. But as far as drafting NHLers, he has done a great job. It is then the GMs job to trade quantity for quality and needs.

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07-24-2013, 09:42 AM
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danyhabsfan
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Id remove the 2009 draft from the equation.

Leblanc, Bennett, Nattinen and Dumont have NHL potential.

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07-24-2013, 09:42 AM
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David Ficher was a terrible pick. Outside of that, it's not like there were that many better options than the pick he made. Yes there might have been one or two players better than what seem to be a bad pick but it's soooo easy to say afterwards...

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07-24-2013, 09:43 AM
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Lafleurs Guy
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You shouldn't expect much when you're in the back third of the draft.

2006 there wasn't much out there unless you cherrypick Claude Giroux.
2008 we don't even have a pick until #56
2009 There's not much to write home about after LL and LL has had injury problems.

You can always cherrypick guys like Lucic or some other player but overall he didn't have a lot to work with in those drafts. It's actually amazing that we've done as well as we have for where we've drafted.

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07-24-2013, 09:47 AM
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Dwight
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2008 was a weak draft altogether, IIRC. The guy Calgary picked with our 1st (Nemisz) doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.

David Fischer was a terrible pick, definitely, and Maxwell over Lucic hurt (see the McCarron thread for more Lucic details, though).

2009 is still too early to tell. These guys are 22 only. Not looking great for Leblanc, but Dumont should be a 4th liner, and who knows with Bennett?

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07-24-2013, 09:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danyhabsfan View Post
Id remove the 2009 draft from the equation.

Leblanc, Bennett, Nattinen and Dumont have NHL potential.
I don't know how much potential Nattinen has to be honest. I can see if going back to Finland eventually. The other three have potential, but again, who knows what will happen to them.

Its just too bad that in three drafts we will end up with a few role players (White and Dumont) along with a couple of players who may be more (Leblanc and Bennett)as they do have potential to be decent, but maybe also never be anything more than they are now.

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07-24-2013, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
You shouldn't expect much when you're in the back third of the draft.

2006 there wasn't much out there unless you cherrypick Claude Giroux.
2008 we don't even have a pick until #56
2009 There's not much to write home about after LL and LL has had injury problems.

You can always cherrypick guys like Lucic or some other player but overall he didn't have a lot to work with in those drafts. It's actually amazing that we've done as well as we have for where we've drafted.
Its not to bash Timmins, but for sure it set us back in our rebuilding. The problem is also that our weak teams always overacheived a little so that we weren't picking high enough to get some real talent.

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07-24-2013, 09:52 AM
  #11
NH57
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Maxwell over Lucic
Fischer over Giroux
McDonagh for Scott freakin' Gomez

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07-24-2013, 09:53 AM
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Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by MasterD View Post
We have had a great drafting average with Timmins as head scout. Could we have drafted more high end players? Probably, yes. But as far as drafting NHLers, he has done a great job. It is then the GMs job to trade quantity for quality and needs.
Very difficult to draft high end players when you're constantly picking outside the top 10, let alone top five.

We've had two top five picks in recent years and both look to be very solid picks.
Our next top ten you have to go back ten years to AK... solid NHL player.
Then with a bunch of late picks we get tons of solid NHLers plus guys who could be borderline stars and one superstar:

Subban, Max, McD, Halak, Gallagher...

Its a very good list regardless but when you consider that we're not drafting high it becomes a great list.

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07-24-2013, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by FrankMTL View Post
Its not to bash Timmins, but for sure it set us back in our rebuilding. The problem is also that our weak teams always overacheived a little so that we weren't picking high enough to get some real talent.
I'm not sure what you expect Timmins to do though. 2008 he doesn't pick until 56 in a weak draft... Nobody is going to do anything with that.

As for the others, you have to cherrypick which you can do for any draft. Most that can be said is that TT didn't find the needle in the haystack and others did. You can't blame him for not taking Lucic for example when all 30 teams passed on him in the first round...

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07-24-2013, 10:01 AM
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I love Trevor Timmins, so even if I can say something negative about him, it still doesn't cancel the fact that I support him 100% no matter what his pick is.

The thing is, I feel he is good at perceiving the *untapped* potential of a player, and determining if that player has a higher ceiling than his position in the draft reflects (like Gallagher or Subban).
Of course, after the 3rd round or so, you're pretty much shooting in the dark, hoping that one of those players will actually develop to his projected potential (or at least reach the NHL), but you feel like Timmins knows something more about them.

However, I feel that when he is faced with a good player (arguably BPA) whose report is more of a *what you see is what you get*, he doesn't always pick the right one.
We could talk all day about BPA Kostitsyn, or BPA *Needed* Fischer. Leblanc is a normal player with decent potential, Chipchura had a higher projected ceiling (3rd line I think) but his injury to his foot and bad management led to his wasted potential.

So when I see those *bad* years of Timmins, I can agree they were so, but you can see that most of those players drafted had a potential of sorts (I remember reading about Trunev).
I still think Mac Bennett can reach the NHL (think of a long term Dman, same as those 26y old Emelin and Diaz reaching the main team).

The big letdown was Astvin, granted when he compared himself to Ovechkin, he shot himself in the foot...

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07-24-2013, 10:05 AM
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Chris Cutter
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2006 is the worst IMO considering how we had pretty good picks (two second round picks I believe) compared to 2008 and 2009.

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07-24-2013, 10:08 AM
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FrankMTL
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
I'm not sure what you expect Timmins to do though. 2008 he doesn't pick until 56 in a weak draft... Nobody is going to do anything with that.

As for the others, you have to cherrypick which you can do for any draft. Most that can be said is that TT didn't find the needle in the haystack and others did. You can't blame him for not taking Lucic for example when all 30 teams passed on him in the first round...
Not blaming Timmins for not picking Lucic. It's just that in general, he didn't pick up anything useful in 3 drafts out of 4 regardless of the talent available during those drafts or where we were picking. I love Timmins and he's had some amazing drafts for us. Just sucks that we pretty much have nothing of value to show for those drafts (2009 pending).

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07-24-2013, 10:13 AM
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2009 really isnt that bad. Leblanc can bounce back and Bennett will surprise many IMO.

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07-24-2013, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankMTL View Post
I decided to go back and have a quick look at how some of our 2008 and 2009 draftees are progressing and as I thought, we don't have much potential left.

2009 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2009 Entry 18 1 Louis Leblanc C Omaha Lancers [USHL] 42 5 5 10 28
2009 Entry 65 3 Joonas Nattinen C Blues Jrs. (Finland)
2009 Entry 79 3 Mac Bennett D Hotchkiss School (Conn.)
2009 Entry 109 4 Alexander Avtsin R Dynamo Moscow-2 (Russia)
2009 Entry 139 5 Gabriel Dumont C Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 13 1 2 3 13
2009 Entry 169 6 Dustin Walsh C Kingston Voyageurs [OJHL]
2009 Entry 199 7 Mike Cichy C Indiana Ice [USHL]
2009 Entry 211 7 Petteri Simila G Karpat Jrs. (Finland)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2008 Entry
Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2008 Entry 56 2 Danny Kristo R US National Under 18 Team
2008 Entry 86 3 Steve Quailer R Sioux City Musketeers [USHL]
2008 Entry 116 4 Jason Missiaen G Peterborough Petes [OHL]
2008 Entry 138 5 Maxim Trunev F Cherepovets Jr. (Russia)
2008 Entry 206 7 Patrick Johnson C U. of Wisconsin [WCHA]

Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
2006 Entry 20 1 David Fischer D Apple Valley H.S. (Minn)
2006 Entry 49 2 Ben Maxwell C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 47 2 6 8 19
2006 Entry 53 2 Mathieu Carle D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL] 3 0 0 0 4
2006 Entry 66 3 Ryan White C Calgary Hitmen [WHL] 89 3 8 11 182
2006 Entry 139 5 Pavel Valentenko D Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik [Russia]
2006 Entry 199 7 Cameron Cepek D Portland Winter Hawks [WHL]



Obviously 2006 and 2008 were real stinkers as our only decent prospect was traded in Danny Kristo, but we didn't have a first round pick in 2008, so that obviously doesn't help. For the 2009 draft however, its looking worse and worse. Yes Leblanc, Bennett and Dumont have NHL potential, but then again, they're far from locks. Normally after 5 years is when you start reaping the benefits of your drafts, but those three have really put us behind and is why were seeing the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts leap frog these. In my opinion (although it still may be early for 2009 draft), these are Timmins worst with our organization and have really affected our rebuilding. He obviously made up for it with 2007, but he basically had 3 of 4 drafts between 2006 and 2009 be almost total disasters.

So far 2010-2012 look much stronger, but it hurts to look back those drafts and see that we pretty much came up empty handed.
The players drafted in 2009 are just turning 22. Most young players don't hit their prime until 23-25(depending on position) with the obvious exception of top 5 pick calibre talent.

2009 is very far from a total disaster, we could esaily end up with 3 regular NHLers from that draft.

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07-24-2013, 10:16 AM
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FrankMTL
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Originally Posted by Chris Cutter View Post
2006 is the worst IMO considering how we had pretty good picks (two second round picks I believe) compared to 2008 and 2009.
I can agree with that. Forget about the Lucic pick, after we drafted Ryan White in the 3rd round, a few picks later Marchand and Clutterbuck were picked. Again, i'm not gonna say we should have drafted those players because its always easy to make those calls in hindsight, just that we pretty much came up empty handed in 2006 and 2008.

There's also our player development that seemed to suffer during those years. We have a much stronger team in place now. Would that have changed anything, who knows.

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07-24-2013, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
The players drafted in 2009 are just turning 22. Most young players don't hit their prime until 23-25(depending on position) with the obvious exception of top 5 pick calibre talent.

2009 is very far from a total disaster, we could esaily end up with 3 regular NHLers from that draft.
I agree, thats why I wrote that 2009 is pending, but nothing substantial has come out of this draft yet. Leblanc and Bennett are real wildcards, but I don't see anything more that a 3rd liner in Dumont...if that.

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07-24-2013, 10:18 AM
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I think you could play a similar game with any team in the league, if you tried hard enough. Scouts, like players or teams, have down years. The question is if you can make it up with your other drafts, and I think Timmins has shown he can.

Although I was looking through 2006 and I can't believe how much the Leafs cleaned up in that draft. Tlusty, Kulemin, Reimer, Holzer, Stalberg and Komarov. Maybe no studs but 6 NHLers out of 7 picks (counting Holzer who's sort of a tweener now and Komarov who proved he can play in the league) is really impressive. Especially since 2006 wasn't a particularly sensational year.


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07-24-2013, 10:19 AM
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Maxwell over Lucic
Fischer over Giroux
McDonagh for Scott freakin' Gomez
These 3 are brutal, but every team has these types of decisions/drafts...every team...

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07-24-2013, 10:20 AM
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There's also our player development that seemed to suffer during those years. We have a much stronger team in place now. Would that have changed anything, who knows.
THIS

THIS THIS THIS x 1000

Player Development is as important as the draft itself.
Too conservative + not enough ice time led to Chipchura (injury didn't help).
Crappy dev and supervision = Fischer Bust
Pushed too fast without guidance = Latendresse

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07-24-2013, 10:33 AM
  #24
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I'm not going to hold my breath for Bennet, but I hope I'm wrong. Defense is a tough gig to crack.

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07-24-2013, 10:39 AM
  #25
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I'll give you '06, but a lack of quality picks really hurt the other 2 years. Kristo looks like a good prospect, but with only 5 picks (the first of which was a late 2nd rounder) you couldn't expect much from 2008. Qualier also lost a key year due to injury.

As for 2009, I still say Leblanc has an NHL future. Dumont hasn't looked out of place in the big club and Nattinen and Bennett still have NHL potential too. No real impact players, but even drafting NHLers is important and he did that with no 2nd round pick.

Only one bad year on a resume is fantastic.

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