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So... are Wings really better next year?

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Old
07-28-2013, 02:40 PM
  #51
ArGarBarGar
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Originally Posted by RedWingsNow View Post
Unless he gets hurt, there is no reason he wouldn't improve as he learns the league
In a scoring line role with PP time, he does no worse than his production from last year -- which was beyond a 20-goal pace

If we sign that for 3 years at $3M ... and that's all he is, I'm happy.
That's a prediction. Nothing more. Would Brunner have been worth getting nothing at all out of free agency except for Weiss? Did you know he wasn't going to be signed by the end of July?

Seems odd, then, to compare them as if you could have signed Brunner then what people think he is asking for now. Circumstances have changed.

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Truth is -- this was a common opinion around here until it became the Wings weren't going to sign him
Truth is, people hoped for improvement but didn't consider it to be an obvious fact like you do. I hoped he would improve and hoped he would sign at a decent price. Problem was, he wanted to test the market and I don't fault Holland for making an addition before some team made a ridiculous offer for him. If Holland had waited and Brunner signed somewhere else? People would be lambasting him for standing pat and losing out on a player we got for free last year.

I'd take Alfredsson over the potential to get neither.

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07-28-2013, 02:44 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by RedWingsNow View Post
Unless he gets hurt, there is no reason he wouldn't improve as he learns the league
In a scoring line role with PP time, he does no worse than his production from last year -- which was beyond a 20-goal pace

If we sign that for 3 years at $3M ... and that's all he is, I'm happy.
What about what happened to Leino or Brunnstrom after their one decent seasons? Brunner is still very difficult to project. He hasn't even played a full season of games yet- he could improve, stay the same or decline significantly like the two guys above.

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07-28-2013, 02:47 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by RedWingsNow View Post
LOL.
Sure.
Say it was a three year, $9M deals.
Even if he busts... it's $3M a year. Considering we've agreed to pay $2M of next year's cap hit to Alfie anyway for NOTHING, it seems peculiar you care about a couple mill for Brunner
It was reported that Brunner was asking for $3.5M. For 3 years. $10.5M total. You're downplaying that amount, but it's significant. More significant than $5.5M. Especially when the latter is for a proven player and the former for an unproven player.

I don't care about this deferring of Alfie's bonuses to next year. It's not relevant (and if anything, it's a point in Alfredsson's favor). We're talking about 1 year of Alfredsson for $5.5M vs 3 years of Brunner for $10.5M. It's a no-brainer. One is a fair deal, and the other is a deal that 30 out of 30 GMs have so far declined to agree to. And this idea that we should just go ahead and sign Brunner to the deal and, if he sucks, simply trade him away is dangerously assumptive in nature; a horrible GMing philosophy.

We obviously don't agree on Brunner. I think you really over-rate him. And I do like the guy, despite him being undersized, weak, and one-dimensional (basically Jiri Hudler but with more speed and less stick-handling). But after a nice month, the league adjusted to him. They saw he only had a couple moves, including that inside-out dipsy doodle that he tried 20 times but which only worked the first time he used it, and proceeded to shut him down. He scored 2 goals in his last 25 regular season games. He had a nice playoffs, and I give him credit for that, but with Nyquist and Tatar (better players who are younger and cheaper) coming on, he's "the definition of expendable."


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07-28-2013, 02:56 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Cursed Lemon View Post
People talking crap on Brunner is really, really annoying.

Yes, he's unproven and has only played 44 NHL games.

On the other hand, HE'S ONLY PLAYED 44 NHL GAMES.

Jesus Christ.
Problem is, he's 27 years old. He's not a kid. He's not going to get much better. We've been taught that lesson several times now with other late-20s offensive Euros who show up, have a good start, and then crater. I don't actually think Brunner is going to crater, but, conversely, I don't think he's going to improve a whole lot either. He is what he is.

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07-28-2013, 03:17 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaster View Post
Problem is, he's 27 years old. He's not a kid. He's not going to get much better. We've been taught that lesson several times now with other late-20s offensive Euros who show up, have a good start, and then crater. I don't actually think Brunner is going to crater, but, conversely, I don't think he's going to improve a whole lot either. He is what he is.
what do you see Brunner putting up? I see him as a 20-25 goal guy, competes but gets shoved around. It's something I think you have to pay $3+ million for on the open market, and I think Brunner would have gotten it easy if he had any sort of track record.

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07-28-2013, 03:20 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
what do you see Brunner putting up? I see him as a 20-25 goal guy, competes but gets shoved around. It's something I think you have to pay $3+ million for on the open market, and I think Brunner would have gotten it easy if he had any sort of track record.
Exactly. A fast 20-25 goal scorer under 30 years of age, commands at least 3M a year. The only problem it seems is his expectations vs. teams being wary of a guy who only played 48 games so far. He thinks he will be the same or better (I agree) other teams are afraid of spending 3.5+ a year on some guy who will regress.

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07-28-2013, 04:02 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
what do you see Brunner putting up? I see him as a 20-25 goal guy, competes but gets shoved around. It's something I think you have to pay $3+ million for on the open market, and I think Brunner would have gotten it easy if he had any sort of track record.
Depending on who he plays with, calling him a 20-25 goal scorer is fair. And if that's actually what he is, I agree, that production commands probably about $3M+ on the open market. But like you said, having no track record hurts him. And I think teams are wary after he scored only 2 goals in his last 25 games. Significant questions about consistency and ability to adjust to the league.

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07-28-2013, 04:04 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Roy S View Post
What about what happened to Leino or Brunnstrom after their one decent seasons? Brunner is still very difficult to project. He hasn't even played a full season of games yet- he could improve, stay the same or decline significantly like the two guys above.
What about every player in NHL history who sucked the year their career ended?

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07-28-2013, 04:05 PM
  #59
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The way I see it, Alfredsson is going to benefit the team way more then Brunner could. Alfie's knowledge of the game, work ethic, training, leadership is going to help the younger guys like Andersson, Nyquist and Tatar progress and get better all while solidifying the top six. You know what Alfredsson is going to bring to the table next season in terms of on ice play, not to mention the motivation factor for the team of getting him the Cup (especially after leaving Ottawa to come here to get it).

Brunner on the other hand playing well offensively last season, but severely lacked in defense and didn't improve the powerplay at all last season and at times was a liability due to his inability to hold the line. He can improve for sure, but there is no guarentee of that, plus you don't know how is going to hold up through an 82-game season. The risk wasn't worth it when you had someone like Alfredsson available and wanting to come here.

Opinions on this vary obviously, but I think having Alfie improves our team more then Brunner could. On a one year contract, Alfie isn't hurting this team at all.

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07-28-2013, 04:43 PM
  #60
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Yes, I think we will be markedly better.

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07-28-2013, 06:38 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cursed Lemon View Post
People talking crap on Brunner is really, really annoying.

Yes, he's unproven and has only played 44 NHL games.

On the other hand, HE'S ONLY PLAYED 44 NHL GAMES.

Jesus Christ.
28 year old undrafted career swiss leaguers arent knowing for becoming regular NHL stars into their twillight years

becoming a star in the NHL is not an easy thing to do and that talent is almost always identified and proven at an early age

maybe brunner will be the first such player playing in the NHL till he is 38 and putting up an average of 30 goals and 70pts and being a force at both ends of the ice, but untill he does he is much closer to being another ville leino then he is a daniel alfredsson


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07-28-2013, 06:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Zetterberg4Captain View Post
28 year old undrafted career swiss leaguers arent knowing for becoming regular NHL stars into their twillight years

becoming a star in the NHL is not an easy thing to do and that talent is almost always identified and proven at an early age

maybe brunner will be the first such player playing in the NHL till he is 38 and putting up an average of 30 goals and 70pts and being a force at both ends of the ice, but untill he does he is much closer to being another ville leino then he is a daniel alfredsson
Even though Brunner scored just as much as Alfredsson with a lot less ice-time, there is no doubt that Alfredsson was the better all-around player last year. But Brunner will probably be at least a little better than last year and Alfredsson probably won't be quite as good. Hopefully the new team and quest for his first Cup should sustain him.

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07-28-2013, 07:01 PM
  #63
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Yes. I believe we're better.

Brunner is a good player, but unproven. I also don't think he can produce more than 20-25 goals, so he's not worth another contract since I believe Tatar can match those numbers.

Plus Alfie and Weiss will significantly boost our team. I think some people under value Alfie.

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07-28-2013, 07:36 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by jaster View Post
Depending on who he plays with, calling him a 20-25 goal scorer is fair. And if that's actually what he is, I agree, that production commands probably about $3M+ on the open market. But like you said, having no track record hurts him. And I think teams are wary after he scored only 2 goals in his last 25 games. Significant questions about consistency and ability to adjust to the league.
But then he scored how many in the playoffs? He found some chemistry on that third line and they come up big, Brunner included, against a couple of pretty damn good teams.

I think it's more likely he'll continue to improve a bit rather than regress.

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07-28-2013, 08:14 PM
  #65
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But then he scored how many in the playoffs? He found some chemistry on that third line and they come up big, Brunner included, against a couple of pretty damn good teams.
Yeah, he rebounded a little bit after his dry spell, and I've given him credit for that multiple times, but the playoffs are an even smaller sample size, so there's a bit of an asterisk there. Most importantly, though, is that, as you just pointed out, he succeeded on the 3rd line (another similarity to Hudler), and he's looking for a top-6 spot right now. Which is another disconnect in terms of the Wings signing him.


Quote:
I think it's more likely he'll continue to improve a bit rather than regress.
Won't surprise me either way. If he gets the top-6 spot he's seeking, I can easily see him having big problems in terms of production (again, depending on who his linemates are). He can still make some positive adjustments, but his major weaknesses are going to continue to be major weaknesses.

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07-28-2013, 08:31 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by RedWingsNow View Post
What about every player in NHL history who sucked the year their career ended?
This response is a red herring. The post I was replying to was strictly about Brunner, so I don't see what asking about players who sucked in their final seasons has to do with projecting him going forward off of his first 58 games in his age 26 season.

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07-28-2013, 09:03 PM
  #67
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Even though Brunner scored just as much as Alfredsson with a lot less ice-time, there is no doubt that Alfredsson was the better all-around player last year. But Brunner will probably be at least a little better than last year and Alfredsson probably won't be quite as good. Hopefully the new team and quest for his first Cup should sustain him.
i am sure i could name a # of players who outproduced a # of other players this past season who I dont feel are now all of a sudden better then actual established NHL stars(no chris kunitz is not better then pavel datsyuk and no i would not rather kunitz over datsyuk because last year he out produced him and this year he might as well)

brunner will likely get 40-45pts wherever he ends up and thats pretty much exactly what alfie will produce however on top of that alfie brings leadership, a 200ft game, physicality(at least not scaredy cat syndrome), desire and experience

yes alfie is way more valuable to all 30 NHL clubs then brunner is

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07-29-2013, 12:43 AM
  #68
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I think they will be better for reasons many have already said. I think Weiss anchoring the 2nd line is key and gives them solid center depth with Helm returning. Top 6 looks much better than last year and line up also looks like a good mix of veterans and youth. Defense is young but if they can improve on last year that's another good sign. I honestly think if this team got another top 2 defenseman they'd be a contender.

Past few seasons the West teams got better while the Wings really didn't and it became more competitive, yet last year they still took out the #2 Ducks and took the Champs to 7. Now they're moving East playing in a division where I think Boston is the only team that is probably going to finish better, though Wings could challenge. Ottawa, Montreal and Toronto don't scare me. I think they'll be better next season.

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07-29-2013, 01:25 AM
  #69
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Next season will be rather tumultuous.

The pros:
-It'll be a full season with Zetterberg as captain.
-We should see full, productive seasons from Tatar and Nyquist.
-Weiss is likely an upgrade over Filppula. Despite having more ice time than Filppula, he's had worse linemates and is in general a better center than Filppula.(Cheaper too.)
-No Danny Cleary
-Kindl will likely prove he's a top 4 defenseman this season.
-Alfredsson will offer invaluable intangibles to our team and invaluable leadership. It'll likely help Zetterberg in the locker room.

The cons:
-Datsyuk and Zetterberg are a year older.
-Brunner out. Alfredsson in. Though Brunner is unproven, he is younger than Alfredsson and may have a more productive season(if signed).
-Babcock's lines.
-Our defense is still very young and inexperienced.
-Samuelsson is still a Red Wing.

The unknown variables.
-Health of players like Helm and Weiss.
-Hopefully Howard can maintain his play from the shortened season and playoffs.
-Hopefully Dekeyser can play well during the duration of an 82 game season.
-Whether or not Smith develops more or slumps.
-Andersson's play this season should also be under the microscope.
-Monster as a backup goalie.
-Kyle Quincey's inconsistent play.

I think, generally speaking, we are a better team. If we trade for someone like Vanek at the deadline, we will be very difficult to beat. I'm concerned with our blue line though. They really came together last season, but they are still very young. I think we moved upward laterally. That is to say, our offseason acquisitions made us slightly better. However, full seasons from Nyquist and Tatar, as well as hopefully improved seasons from Smith, Kindl, Dekeyser(the latter two having played fairly well) should pay dividends for our franchise next season.)

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07-29-2013, 02:09 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by LeighDx13 View Post
The way I see it, Alfredsson is going to benefit the team way more then Brunner could. Alfie's knowledge of the game, work ethic, training, leadership is going to help the younger guys like Andersson, Nyquist and Tatar progress and get better all while solidifying the top six. You know what Alfredsson is going to bring to the table next season in terms of on ice play, not to mention the motivation factor for the team of getting him the Cup (especially after leaving Ottawa to come here to get it).

Brunner on the other hand playing well offensively last season, but severely lacked in defense and didn't improve the powerplay at all last season and at times was a liability due to his inability to hold the line. He can improve for sure, but there is no guarentee of that, plus you don't know how is going to hold up through an 82-game season. The risk wasn't worth it when you had someone like Alfredsson available and wanting to come here.

Opinions on this vary obviously, but I think having Alfie improves our team more then Brunner could. On a one year contract, Alfie isn't hurting this team at all.
to be fair this is on Babcock mostly

Brunner never should have been used at the point in the first place and Babcock just stubbornly stuck with it

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07-29-2013, 07:24 AM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
what do you see Brunner putting up? I see him as a 20-25 goal guy, competes but gets shoved around. It's something I think you have to pay $3+ million for on the open market, and I think Brunner would have gotten it easy if he had any sort of track record.
I agree that he would have gotten it easily if he had a track record. However, he has 44 NHL games under his belt and the jury is still out.

I've said it before, but I really think after Ville Leino a lot of teams are hesitant to screw around with long-term deals to undrafted European imports.

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07-29-2013, 07:58 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by SoupNazi View Post
I agree that he would have gotten it easily if he had a track record. However, he has 44 NHL games under his belt and the jury is still out.

I've said it before, but I really think after Ville Leino a lot of teams are hesitant to screw around with long-term deals to undrafted European imports.
I agree with you and Jaster about his lack of track record. I'm still curious what exactly the guy's been asking for. I can understand teams not wanting to go 3+ years on the guy, but two years/$6 or so million? That seems like a good risk to take, especially for a number of teams that don't have a lot of scoring punch to begin with.

Somewhat surprised Grabovski hasn't found a place, either.

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07-29-2013, 08:20 AM
  #73
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Tatar could likely be a cheaper, slightly grittier Brunner. I think Tatar has more hustle on the forecheck and goes to dirty areas more often.

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07-29-2013, 08:34 AM
  #74
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The Good
- Weiss is a 2C, Filppula was more of a winger. This should solidify the 2nd line.
- Smith, Tatar, Andersson and Nyquist are all more experienced and should be able to contribute more
- Helm is looking like he will be ready/healthy for the 3rd line C
- Alfredsson's leadership will help Zetterberg be a better captain

The Bad
- Too many bottom-6 players, Holland will have to trade a couple of them.
- How will Bert's back hold up?
- Quincey's defense

The Ugly
- Samuelsson is still on this team

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07-29-2013, 09:47 AM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roy S View Post
This response is a red herring. The post I was replying to was strictly about Brunner, so I don't see what asking about players who sucked in their final seasons has to do with projecting him going forward off of his first 58 games in his age 26 season.
If you want to talk about the possibility that Brunner becomes Leino, then consider the possibility that Alfredsson, at 41, becomes useless ..

That's not a red herring -- that should be the first question on anyone's mind when signing a forward who will be 41 in December.

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