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MLB Discussion Thread, Part II: Yanks pay Ellsbury

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Old
12-06-2013, 11:25 AM
  #1026
Lundsanity30
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even if yanks went 8/200 he was gone

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12-06-2013, 11:25 AM
  #1027
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Why did Seattle up their offer?

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12-06-2013, 11:26 AM
  #1028
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Why did Seattle up their offer?
Because Seattle is less desirable than the Yankees.

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Old
12-06-2013, 11:33 AM
  #1029
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Because Seattle is less desirable than the Yankees.
They still had the top offer and were playing it just as I said.. making him sign it quickly.

Then they up it. Cano wins. Player gets what he wants again.

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12-06-2013, 11:37 AM
  #1030
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They still had the top offer and were playing it just as I said.. making him sign it quickly.

Then they up it. Cano wins. Player gets what he wants again.
How do you know? Maybe $175 million from the Yankees was the top offer for Cano, over $225 from the Mariners. Or maybe, Jay-Z just made it seem that way.

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12-06-2013, 11:49 AM
  #1031
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I don't mind 10 years to Trout. Trout is very young. My issue with 10 year contracts is when the player is 30+.
I'd easily give Trout 10 years.

Anyway, big fan of the Grandy deal. He has his flaws, absolutely, but the Mets were et on making a move. The terms are fair and they didn't really overpay. Choo was not gonna come here and Nelson Cruz would've been a bad move.

An outfield of Young-Lagares-Grandy is not a bad outfield. Should be very good defensively.

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12-06-2013, 12:00 PM
  #1032
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Also, bless David Wright. Looking at the ridiculous contracts of the last couple of seasons, the best 3rd baseman in the league left a LOT of money on the table to resign with us.

Get him a ring.

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12-06-2013, 12:00 PM
  #1033
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
I'd easily give Trout 10 years.

Anyway, big fan of the Grandy deal. He has his flaws, absolutely, but the Mets were et on making a move. The terms are fair and they didn't really overpay. Choo was not gonna come here and Nelson Cruz would've been a bad move.

An outfield of Young-Lagares-Grandy is not a bad outfield. Should be very good defensively.
Overpayment, by a lot.

Grandy is not that good. His average is horrible. He will bat like 220/230, with a TON of strikeouts, especially in a completely unprotected lineup.

Add into that the fact that he had the lovely right field porch in yankee stadium. He'll be lucky to hit 25 homers at Citi.

Bad deal, only silver lining in it is that the mets at least are trying to spend some money.

As for the Cano deal, glad the Yanks didn't give him that. Nuts. Every major contract (outside of probably Jeter) has become an albatross. And Cano is very good, but he is nowhere near the likes of what A-Rod, Pujols, Hamilton etc were when they signed those deals.

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12-06-2013, 12:02 PM
  #1034
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Yanks were smart to not give Cano this deal. Time to move on.

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12-06-2013, 12:10 PM
  #1035
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Overpayment, by a lot.

Grandy is not that good. His average is horrible. He will bat like 220/230, with a TON of strikeouts, especially in a completely unprotected lineup.

Add into that the fact that he had the lovely right field porch in yankee stadium. He'll be lucky to hit 25 homers at Citi.

Bad deal, only silver lining in it is that the mets at least are trying to spend some money.

As for the Cano deal, glad the Yanks didn't give him that. Nuts. Every major contract (outside of probably Jeter) has become an albatross. And Cano is very good, but he is nowhere near the likes of what A-Rod, Pujols, Hamilton etc were when they signed those deals.
Incorrect. Grandy's worst year was 2012, where his BABIP was a career low and subpar CF defense really dragged down his value. He put up 1.4 WAR with solid defensive stats in 60 games last season with a BABIP closer to his career norm. He won't be playing CF on the Mets so his D will not likely hit his value. Don't have to hit homers (he will, though) to be a good baseball player.

If he provides 2.5 WAR per year, which is very possible, it's a good deal. Some protections have the Mets combined OF UZR at 27. That's fantastic.

I would've rather it be a guaranteed 3 year deal with a vesting option (for PAs) to start the 4th, but whatever.

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12-06-2013, 12:14 PM
  #1036
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I like Granderson. He'll strike out a ton, but he'll walk a ton and see a ton of pitches too. Top 10 in the AL in BB and P/PA in his last two full seasons.

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12-06-2013, 12:22 PM
  #1037
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What Cano was asking for was too rich and too lengthy for the Yankees' blood. It sucks, but he was going to still have 4 years/100 mil left as a 37 year old. Pass.

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12-06-2013, 12:23 PM
  #1038
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Also, there is nothing better than listening to Mike Francesa ceaselessly talk baseball on a "Football Friday".

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12-06-2013, 12:42 PM
  #1039
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I liked Cano but I don't think this is the worst thing in the world. The Yankees need more consistency in the lineup.

Although I think Safeco will be great for Cano. Now that he's not staring at the short porch he might stop trying to hit 80 homeruns a year and go back to being a .330 hitter.

As for Granderson, I mean he kinda sucks. And I like him too but he has a **** ton of holes in his game. That being said, I always liked him and if he's healthy he's gonna hit close to 40 homeruns. And he's still gonna hit alot at Citi Field.





These are overlay charts, which I think are the coolest statistical tool in baseball. 2011 on the top and 2012 on the bottom. The red line is Citi Field's walls and the blue dots are Granderson's homeruns.

If he played every game at Citi Field those two years, in 2011 he hits 40 instead of 43. Not a tragedy. 2012 is a little rougher, 35 instead of 43. But trust me the Mets will take 35 homers.

And last year he was hurt but why not.



All 7 cleared with ease.

Now you're gonna reduce these somewhat to compensate for the fact that half his games are on the road. So in 2011 and 2012 we're probably looking at in the neighborhood of 41 and 38 homers. Again, the Mets will take that and run.

Like I said, I liked Granderson, even with his flaws. So I'm glad he's staying in NY. I wish him all the best and I really hope he knocks 40 in Citi just to shut up everyone who says he can't do it.

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12-06-2013, 12:50 PM
  #1040
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
Incorrect. Grandy's worst year was 2012, where his BABIP was a career low and subpar CF defense really dragged down his value. He put up 1.4 WAR with solid defensive stats in 60 games last season with a BABIP closer to his career norm. He won't be playing CF on the Mets so his D will not likely hit his value. Don't have to hit homers (he will, though) to be a good baseball player.

If he provides 2.5 WAR per year, which is very possible, it's a good deal. Some protections have the Mets combined OF UZR at 27. That's fantastic.

I would've rather it be a guaranteed 3 year deal with a vesting option (for PAs) to start the 4th, but whatever.
If he's not hitting homers he's useless. He has batter over 250 ONCE in the last 5 years. You can use all the advanced stats you want, but when one of your highest paid players and marquee FA signing is going to hit around 240, while providing 20 ish home runs, you are not getting a "fantastic" player.

I've watched Granderson every year since he's been in NY and for a guy who hit 40 home runs, more often then not, i was extremely dissapointed with him.

He truly is not that good. And trust me, the porch in right makes him look WAY better then most people understand.

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12-06-2013, 12:53 PM
  #1041
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there is no 2B out there that can replace Cano, BUT Ellsbury and Mccann combined can and will. What we need to do now is find a way to replace Granderson's contributions and could come close to doing that with either Choo or Beltran. keep in mind if Tex and Jeter are healthy they are 10X better than what we had at 1st and SS last season.. Then go and improve the pitching even the BP.

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12-06-2013, 12:55 PM
  #1042
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Originally Posted by Lundsanity30 View Post
there is no 2B out there that can replace Cano, BUT Ellsbury and Mccann combined can and will. What we need to do now is find a way to replace Granderson's contributions and could come close to doing that with either Choo or Beltran. keep in mind if Tex and Jeter are healthy they are 10X better than what we had at 1st and SS last season.. Then go and improve the pitching even the BP.
Yanks are going to sign other big names. I'd bet Choo or Beltran will be signing as well with the extra money now.

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12-06-2013, 12:56 PM
  #1043
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I liked Cano but I don't think this is the worst thing in the world. The Yankees need more consistency in the lineup.

Although I think Safeco will be great for Cano. Now that he's not staring at the short porch he might stop trying to hit 80 homeruns a year and go back to being a .330 hitter.
Agreed. I also think the Yanks' coaching staff was involved with that. It seemed that every lefty hitter was constantly trying to pull the ball no matter what. Must've been some sort of sabrmetric that existed which stressed the importance of homers in Yankee Stadium. Obviously with the short porch this is a huge advantage, but jeez, try to hit a single once and a while or go the other way.

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12-06-2013, 01:03 PM
  #1044
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You're not getting a game-breaking talent in modern FA for 15 million a year.

Grandy's a decent bet for 3~ WAR when fully healthy. He'll probably do some declining but he still won't be awful.

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12-06-2013, 01:06 PM
  #1045
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Granderson hit 30 HR his last season playing in Comerica. Citi isn't much different. I think he'll be good for 25 homers. He'll also see a lot of pitches, and make David Wright that much better. He's far from a perfect fit, but he's a good fit.

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12-06-2013, 01:06 PM
  #1046
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For the $/yrs involved Id say sign Beltran over Choo

Man I hope we can pull a 2b, 3b, & SP out of our *****

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12-06-2013, 01:09 PM
  #1047
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For the $/yrs involved Id say sign Beltran over Choo

Man I hope we can pull a 2b, 3b, & SP out of our *****
That should not be too difficult..

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12-06-2013, 01:25 PM
  #1048
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Jay-Z obviously doesn't have the experience and sports-related connections of someone like Scott Boras, but he's ****ing Jay-Z! He's one of, if not the singlest most influential power brokers in the entertainment industry. Why wouldn't he be able to find success in sports? He has more money than god, any connection or influence he lacks can be addressed with a few phone calls. And we understand it's not just him representing his clients, right? He almost certainly has an army of well-paid, well-connected, extremely bright people on his team.

I don't know how anyone could think signing with Jay-Z's agency would be a bad thing. Even if you're leaving Boras for him. At worst, it's a lateral move. And beyond the contract he helps you sign, being associated with him opens up so many new marketing opportunities.

I'm sure Cano is pretty pleased with the job Jay-Z and his team just did.


I'm not sure what his marketing opportunities will be on the last place Seattle Mariners in the AL West…

Jay Z or no Jay Z…. being a top player in pinstripes is probably paying for itself.

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12-06-2013, 01:34 PM
  #1049
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I liked Cano but I don't think this is the worst thing in the world. The Yankees need more consistency in the lineup.

Although I think Safeco will be great for Cano. Now that he's not staring at the short porch he might stop trying to hit 80 homeruns a year and go back to being a .330 hitter.



I think Cano had an HOF trajectory. With Seattle I don't think that's the case anymore. His power and RBI numbers will decrease.

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12-06-2013, 01:37 PM
  #1050
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I love the Grandy deal for the Mets. I was terrified about 4 years when I heard 17-18M being thrown around. 15M is OK to me for that term. And there is a graph out there of his home runs. All but about 10 of them over the last three years clear it in Citi Field. The ones that don't are likely doubles.

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