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08-21-2013, 01:22 PM
  #726
crazycanuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
My point is that all those players, excluding Bergeron are all near PPG players or better, and I just don't see Horvat having that kind of offensive potential.



None of Crosby, Datsyuk, or Toews can be considered 60-70 point players, though. Obviously if you can get an elite player offensively that's also elite defensively, then great. But if the choice is something like Bergeron or Kovalchuk, then personally I would favour Kovalchuk.
Yes they are more PPG+ players than the 60-70 pt players.

When it's proven that you need to be good defensively no matter how good offensively you are, I don't see why you take Kovalchuk over Bergeron if you are a team looking to build a contender.

Again name a team who has won the cup lately who's best/most important forward is a forward who has glaring defensive holes in his game despite being a top end offensive producer.

If you add a player like Kovalchuk to a roster that includes a two way forward who can produce at least 60-70 points than you are way better off, but I'd rather build a team around players like Bergeron than players like Kovalchuk.

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08-21-2013, 01:28 PM
  #727
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Kovalchuk is a bad example. Guy plays a 200 foot game. Not Selke level, but not chopped liver either

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08-21-2013, 01:31 PM
  #728
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Originally Posted by ItsAllPartOfThePlan View Post
Kovalchuk is a bad example. Guy plays a 200 foot game. Not Selke level, but not chopped liver either
A good example is a guy like Ovechkin playing the way he did in 11-12 (ignoring the rest of his career). Easily take Bergeron over a player like that.

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08-21-2013, 01:35 PM
  #729
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Originally Posted by ItsAllPartOfThePlan View Post
Kovalchuk is a bad example. Guy plays a 200 foot game. Not Selke level, but not chopped liver either
Kovalchuk's all round game only really came around after he joined the Devils (and even then it took some time for the Devils to get him to play that way).

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08-21-2013, 01:39 PM
  #730
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Originally Posted by F A N View Post
How many Russian forwards with "elite" skills have actually reached their potential in the NHL?
Chistov, Svitov, Alexeev, Yakubov, Vorobiev, Smirnov, oh can't forget my favourite of all time...Alexandre Volchkov.

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08-21-2013, 02:03 PM
  #731
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Originally Posted by MS View Post
As a top-10 pick who scored 33 goals last year, anything under 40-40-80 in ~60 games would be on the disappointing side. Anything over that would be excellent.
Agreed but I'd add in 'injury-free.'

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08-21-2013, 02:05 PM
  #732
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
A good example is a guy like Ovechkin playing the way he did in 11-12 (ignoring the rest of his career). Easily take Bergeron over a player like that.
You'd be a fool not to take Ovechkin or Kovalchuk over Bergeron. Yes, looking at Ovechkin's one bad year you can choose Bergeron, but they really aren't on the same page.

Kovalchuk in particular is a bad comparison, since he was his team's best forward during a run to the cup finals, and he did so while playing injured.

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08-21-2013, 02:12 PM
  #733
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more than happy: play at least few games in nhl before going back
happy: have same amount of impact (role) and/or score at the same pace or more points from last year
disappointment: have a major injury/play significant less games than last year

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08-21-2013, 02:15 PM
  #734
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Hoping for: Healthy season with good production.

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08-21-2013, 02:24 PM
  #735
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Originally Posted by deckercky View Post
You'd be a fool not to take Ovechkin or Kovalchuk over Bergeron. Yes, looking at Ovechkin's one bad year you can choose Bergeron, but they really aren't on the same page.

Kovalchuk in particular is a bad comparison, since he was his team's best forward during a run to the cup finals, and he did so while playing injured.
Bergeron is an incredibly efficient hockey player. He contributes good production while severely limiting the opponents best. There's no one else I'd want in a seven game series (except for perhaps a healthy Kesler).


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08-21-2013, 02:28 PM
  #736
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Bergeron is an incredibly efficient hockey player. There's no one else I'd want in a seven game series (except for perhaps a healthy Kesler).
Malkin, Crosby, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kopitar and the list could keep on going. All are guys that can do the same thing Bergeron can while scoring more.

Anyway, using prime Ovechkin and Kovalchuk as examples on the 80+ point side is about as disingenuous as using Kopitar or Zetterberg to represent the two-way forward side.

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08-21-2013, 02:34 PM
  #737
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Yeah, I'm hoping for a cup of coffee with the Canucks, a similar scoring rate while playing in the OHL, a strong WJC performance, and a strong playoff/memorial cup performance.

Not going to settle on a points total because he could miss a decent amount of time with the team (Canucks + WJC), but hopefully he at least maintains the 1.1PPG from his last 60 games last year.

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08-21-2013, 02:38 PM
  #738
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
Malkin, Crosby, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kopitar and the list could keep on going. All are guys that can do the same thing Bergeron can while scoring more.
I can't speak for the others, but there is a very recent playoff series where you could argue that no, Bergeron is even more efficient than two of those guys on the list. You don't need a lot of goals, you just need more than the guy you're playing against.

We watched another two-way phenom with Kesler's 2011 line vs Toews. Him and Burrows burned Toews over again in 2011 while also strangling him defensively.

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08-21-2013, 02:41 PM
  #739
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Originally Posted by Wisp View Post
I can't speak for the others, but there is a very recent playoff series where you could argue that no, Bergeron is even more efficient than two of those guys on the list. You don't need a lot of goals, you just need more than the guy you're playing against.

We watched another two-way phenom with Kesler's 2011 line vs Toews. Him and Burrows burned Toews over again in 2011 while also strangling him defensively.
No offense but that's a horrible way to pick the best player. It's a 4 game sample size and largely team dependant. Put Crosby or Malkin on the Bruins and Bergeron on the Pens and I can guarantee that Boston still wins in 4, by an even bigger margin.

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08-21-2013, 02:49 PM
  #740
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Originally Posted by PG Canuck View Post
Unless Horvat can carry a team on his own to an OHL championship, I think this is an unfair expectation for Horvat personally. There's a lot of factors that play into the Knights being champions or not, and it may not all rely on Horvat.
I think you can hope he wins a championship and not expect him to do it alone.

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08-21-2013, 02:55 PM
  #741
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
No offense but that's a horrible way to pick the best player. It's a 4 game sample size.
That's a good point, though there is a lot a regular season data around Bergeron and players like him that support the trend of Bergeron's efficiency vs top competition. If I was arguing against myself, I'd point out Bergeron's teammates contributing, too (Chara and Seidenburg and Rask behind Bergeron is a very well layered defense), at least in terms of the Malkin and Crosby match up.

Generally, my take is that players who are productive in tough minutes are more conductive towards victory than the Ovies or Kovies are, simply because the 2-way phenom can play the Ovie or whoever head to head and come out ahead on the game sheet. You don't see a lot of superstars overcoming match ups like that without the two way phenom having a punctured lung or something.

It's kind of why I get excited with the Sedin's of last year, who, while they were less productive overall, gave up scoring chances at a much lower rate than they were in 2011. Shame they didn't have a team behind them to benefit from that.


Last edited by Wisp: 08-21-2013 at 08:11 PM.
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08-21-2013, 03:03 PM
  #742
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Wisp has it right, but yes a 4 game sample size isn't that great when it's compared to success Malkin and Crosby have had in the past.

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08-21-2013, 03:10 PM
  #743
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Satisfied best player on London maintaning scoring level of latter in the year. Why do people care about the Memorial Cup and even the World Juniors on a player develpment basis? They are tournaments that might help players prepare for future W.C. or the Olympics but how do they help one prepare to be a productive NHL player? They are short events with the W.J. at least their is a camp with different coaches and they can learn from other elite players. The Mem. Cup is just a sprint that probably doesn't add to development. The OHL playoffs is a developer more for Horvat, so if London playing in a long playoff run is good. Them losing early and Horvat waiting around to play in the Mem Cup does next to nothing for his development.

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08-21-2013, 03:31 PM
  #744
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
It's not so much that I'm saying the 60 point guy is or isn't better than a 70 point guy. It's that a prospect who is strong offensively but has holes in his defensive game, it makes more sense to draft than someone who's sound defensively but is on a level below offensively.



I happen to think that barring Nichushkin busting complety, he is definitely more likely to be the better player
Great wording to try and make Nichushkin look better.

He's a few levels below defensively and he isnt strong offensively. Atleast not as good as you believe he is.

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08-21-2013, 03:49 PM
  #745
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Bergeron is easily a PPG player on an other team than the bruins under Claude Julien.

Bruins haven't had a 70 point producer in 5 years. Slap him in Toews role in chi-town and the production would be similar (note Toews has yet to be PPg).

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Old
08-21-2013, 11:06 PM
  #746
Vankiller Whale
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Originally Posted by ItsAllPartOfThePlan View Post
Kovalchuk is a bad example. Guy plays a 200 foot game. Not Selke level, but not chopped liver either
That was sort of the point. If Horvat can develop his offense to being a 60-70 point player, then I don't see why we shouldn't discount the possibility of Nichushkin developing his defensive game in a similar manner to Kovalchuk(who was probably just as bad defensively when he first broke into the league)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
Still think the biggest issue in this conversation is the complete overvaluing of a player the poster hasn't even seen play. There's nothing to back up PPG+ projections for Nichushkin. Hell, it might be a stretch to project his ceiling at 70-75 points, even. His production in the MHL was poor for his age and the only real evidence of high-end offensive skill is a very small sample size in the KHL (which can easily be compared to what Kreider did in last year's playoffs in the NHL). U18 performance was decent but hardly on a level to warrant these type of projections.

There's really no good reason to have such a strong opinion given that it seems to be formed by reading other scouts opinions rather than through watching the player or through statistical projections.
Perhaps you misread one of my posts. The PPG projection was sort a best case scenario, just like Horvat and Bergeron. I don't expect Nichushkin to be a PPG+ player any more than I expect Horvat to be as good as Bergeron.

His play in the MHL doesn't bother me at all. How many people actually watched him play in the MHL enough to be able to make a projection based on that? This entire past year he's done very well, and has absolutely displayed high end offensive skill.

I find it curious that you think it's impossible to form such a strong opinion by watching him play(I have), but only by reading other scouts opinions. So where did all the professional scouts get their opinions from? I would assume it was from watching him play as well, no...?

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08-22-2013, 01:15 AM
  #747
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You can't say for sure. Phil Kessel was rated the #1 prospect in the year Sidney Crosby went first overall. Had he not suffered from Cancer, he would have been draft eligible that year. Not that we don't like Phil Kessel over here in Toronto, but several years later now that we see both players development...Crosby is easily the better player.

Just using that as an example. It's way too early to tell what you have in Horvat, Domi or anyone in that draft class. You can speculate all you want but there is no definitive answer.

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08-22-2013, 01:28 AM
  #748
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Leafs fans always have a way of making it about them.

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08-22-2013, 03:40 AM
  #749
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The discussion between Vankiller Whale and most everyone else on this board is really getting pointless. There is no doubt Nichushkin is considered a better offensive talent than Horvat, in fact Nichuchkin's talent level is considered top 3. But there is a reason he dropped. Russian factor was one of them. His perceived arrogance or at least his desire to participate in the draft combine was another (which adds to the Russian factor). Horvat on the other hand is perceived as a complete player who has a strong work ethic.

As for comparisons, ya Kovy learned to played defense, actually it's more like some team finally got him to put some effort to defend. But his offensive game suffered a bit and then he quit the NHL. Has Ovechkin and Semin learned to play a two way game while keeping up their offensive totals?

Quote:
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Phil Kessel was rated the #1 prospect in the year Sidney Crosby went first overall. Had he not suffered from Cancer, he would have been draft eligible that year.
Phil Kessel was certainly not rated ahead of Crosby. And draft eligibility is based on age (including birth month) not health.

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08-22-2013, 03:55 AM
  #750
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Originally Posted by DionPhaneuf3 View Post
You can't say for sure. Phil Kessel was rated the #1 prospect in the year Sidney Crosby went first overall. Had he not suffered from Cancer, he would have been draft eligible that year. Not that we don't like Phil Kessel over here in Toronto, but several years later now that we see both players development...Crosby is easily the better player.

Just using that as an example. It's way too early to tell what you have in Horvat, Domi or anyone in that draft class. You can speculate all you want but there is no definitive answer.
Uh what? Like FAN mentioned draft eligibility is based on age not health. Also wasn't Kessel diagnosed with cancer after he was drafted? Lastly no chance in hell Kessel was ranked ahead of Crosby, zero. Crosby was dubbed as one of the best if not the best prospect of all time.

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