Getting ready for my main fantasy draft in a couple hours, drafting #7 this year and mulling over who's likely to be available. This is a pure TD league (no yards, no receptions, etc) where QB's count as 6 points rather than 4. So an elite QB can be a huge force.
I'm guessing at pick #7 the top 4 QB's (Brees, Peyton, Brady, Rodgers) will be gone along with Adrian Peterson.
With one more pick off the board I'm guessing that'll leave me mulling over running backs from the group of Foster, Morris and McCoy. I have a pretty big dropoff on my predictions from the top 4 QB's to the next tier of guys, so probably not looking at someone like Matt Ryan.
That leaves my top options as:
Foster - high risk, high reward if he is and stays healthy. Not sure what to make of his current health situation though missing all of the preseason.
McCoy - moderate risk, high reward. Chip Kelly loves the running game, and with a spread offense McCoy could be in for a 10-14 TD season. The risk is less with McCoy himself and more with how successful Kelly will be bringing his college offensive traits to the pros.
Morris - moderate risk, moderate reward. Morris looks like a pretty safe bet to get 10+ TD's, so long as RGIII is the QB. His running performance was notably different when Cousins started, probably because defenses accounting for the RGIII threat generated better running opportunities for Morris. Shanahan likes focusing on a single RB and it looks like Morris has that locked up.
- I'm staying away from Ridley with this pick. Too much of a risk Belichek will have a heavier rotation with Vereen healthy and Bolden maybe getting some carries.
- Not high on Rice with Baltimore's changes and Pierce looking to pick up more carries this season.
- Jamal Charles is an interesting wrinkle. Andy Reid has usually done very well for RB's like him, but I have him a notch behind the other guys.
- Doug Martin, lots of yards, probably not as many TD's as some of the other guys though. And this is a TD only league. Ditto for Trent Richardson.
Think at this point I'm leaning towards taking a chance on McCoy, but I'm really not feeling great about this pick right now. If one of the top 4 QB's falls to me I'm taking him quickly.
Foster is better than Peterson if this is just a TD league. You say high-risk/high-reward based on health, but he hasn't shown reason for someone to question health yet, and no one gets fed the ball as consistently as he does on the goal-line on a game-to-game basis.
How does your league handle rushing TD's by a QB, is that 4 or 6?
Can't say I've ever been in a TD only league but would seem like Newton would be an intriguing option?
Everything's pure points, so a rushing TD is worth 6, the same as a passing TD.
Newton's more interesting in traditional TD leagues which give 6 for rushing and 4 for passing. I have Newton down for ~20 passing TDs and 6-7 rushing TD's, which would rank him 13th in my QB list for this league.
Draft did not go how I expected. For years in this league most of the other players weren't adjusting their draft priorities for how important the elite QB's are. Assume most folks just picked up their favorite fantasy mag and went off that list, none of which rank players based on 6 points for a passing TD. That's part of what makes this league interesting--you have to readjust your rankings to fit the rules. A guy like Jason Witten with 110 receptions, 1000+ yards and 3 TD's is a rotten TE in this league.
Thought the other players had finally figured it out because the top QB's went early in last year's league. But they reverted back to previous form this year going RB heavy. One of the fun things with this league--we've been running it for 16-17 years now and have only switched a total of about 10 owners during that time. Haven't had an owner change in 5 years now.
1. RB Peterson
2. RB McCoy (surprising, but I don't completely disagree with it, could be a great pick)
3. RB Rice (bad pick in this league at this point imo)
4. QB Rodgers
5. RB Lynch
6. RB Martin
Leaving me with a lot of good options. Elected to go with my #1 ranked QB I'm projecting at 35 TD's this season.
7. QB Brees
8. RB Morris
9. RB Foster
10. QB P Manning
11. WR Calvin Johnson
12. RB Trent Richardson
I figure there are 4 QB's who are solid odds to put up 2+ TD per game this year (Brees, Peyton, Brady, Rodgers). The only other QB with at least a 50% chance to hit 30 is Ryan. I have the four elite QB's at least 3-4 TD's better than the next tier of Ryan and Wilson, and 5-6 TD's better than the 7th and lower ranked QB's over the full season.
Whereas with RB's I have the top dozen with 1-2 TD's of each other, partially based on expectations that guys like Peterson and Foster are likely to miss a couple games due to injury. Figure it's more important to secure an elite QB if possible, then start going through the RB's.
QB: Drew Brees
QB: Eli Manning
RB: Stephen Ridley
RB: Eddie Lacy (highly likely to be the #1 GB rusher, 10+ TD potential, looked good in preseason)
RB: Darren Sproles
RB: Shane Vereen (didn't heavily want him, but got him in the 9th round, nice value for a RB I have ranked 17th, and if Ridley or Vereen gets hurt that increases the value of the other)
RB: Toby Gerhart (in case Peterson get injured)
WR: James Jones
WR: Golden Tate (#1 receiver in Seattle, will see how much they open up the playbook for Wilson)
WR: Chris Givens (#1 receiver in St Louis, Austin has looked poor as a receiver in preseason, though had a good punt return last game)
WR: Mohammed Sanu (looks to have locked up the #2 job in Cincy)
WR: Branden LaFell
TE: Coby Fleener (There are only 3 elite TE's imo, then a pack of a dozen+ guys within 1 TD of each other. Once I couldn't get an elite guy just waited until the last round to take a TE, I'll bounce him for someone else if he doesn't work out. Best to hope for from a non-elite TE is 5-6 TD.)
K: Phil Dawson (most likely to lead league in scoring imo)
D: New England
Team's a little iffy on WR, but otherwise I'm pretty happy with the roster. Too many of the WR I was targeting went a pick or two ahead of my draft spot, and one of the three elite TE's Gonzales went a pick ahead of my taking him.
That's some interesting scoring in your league. I think you did well getting Brees so high, especially since you mentioned the elite QBs score well in those settings. That's a good move pairing Ridley and Vereen together. I agree with your call on Phil Dawson and thanks for the tip on Sanu, I'll keep an eye on him.
edit: forgot to mention I just had 2nd pick in a draft (more traditional scoring) and passed on Foster. Although I wouldn't say I'm against AF and almost did select him.
I like the fact that St Louis will finally have some names to look at outside of Jackson from years past.
Givens, Austin, Cook, Richardson and Bradford are all legit players to draft. They should be a fun team to watch and will have a tough defense which means this should get the ball in solid field position a lot.
I am still going with Austin as the man to own by years end for the wideouts, but Bradford has a lot of nice options to look at this year : Austin, Givens, Cook, Quick, etc..