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Will the Oilers make the playoffs?

View Poll Results: Will the Oilers make the playoffs this season?
Yes. 105 46.67%
No. 120 53.33%
Voters: 225. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
09-25-2013, 08:11 PM
  #1
StayFrosty
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Will the Oilers make the playoffs?

So last night the TSN panel seemed to agree unanimously that the Oilers will NOT be making the playoffs this season.

For those who heard what they said, what did you think? IMO, analysts are often right, especially when they agree as a whole. I'm not sure what to think. But I was really put down by what they said.

So in your opinion, will the Oilers make the playoffs in this coming 2013-14 NHL season?

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09-25-2013, 08:12 PM
  #2
GreatKeith
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I think they can but they'll be in tough.

That said they should be better than at least the Flames and Coyotes in the division. They'll just have to beat out one of the remaining teams, or one of the teams in the Central.

I think the Sharks and Canucks are due for a letdown season, and the Ducks will not be as good as last year.

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09-25-2013, 08:12 PM
  #3
OilerTyler
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I can't see us making the playoffs

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09-25-2013, 08:14 PM
  #4
ghostnights
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I'm confident we will make the playoffs. I think Taylor Hall will carry this team into the postseason on his own.

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09-25-2013, 08:36 PM
  #5
oilers4cup
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I voted yes not sure why . I just like the vibe around the team this year we'll see soon enough. If the Oilers weather the storm with RNH & Gags out things will look a lot better

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09-25-2013, 08:38 PM
  #6
smackdaddy
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I have faith. I think this is the year.

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09-25-2013, 08:53 PM
  #7
The Nuge
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We've looked too good up to this point not to imo

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09-25-2013, 08:55 PM
  #8
Burnt Biscuits
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I'd be a definite yes if we had Gagner and Nuge healthy to start the season. With both out I'm thinking we will need to acquire a center to keep our playoff hopes alive, we're going to be a fringe playoff team either way but 2-3 wins will make a huge difference in where we end up at. I'm thinking MacT will do something small to help us out, despite talk to the contrary.

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09-25-2013, 08:55 PM
  #9
RisingSun
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No idea. I would have see how we play without RNH & Gagner before making any judgement. But my gut feeling is we won't unfortunately.

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09-25-2013, 08:59 PM
  #10
PavelDatsyuk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostnights View Post
I'm confident we will make the playoffs. I think Taylor Hall will carry this team into the postseason on his own.
No single player (especially forward) can have that much of an impact on the game/a team's season in general. The difference between with and without Taylor Hall over a full 82 game season is probably only ~4-8 points (2-4 wins, and this is being extremely generous) in the standings(obviously just making this number up but pretty confident it falls somewhere within this range a high percentage of the time). People really tend to overrate the impact of certain players in team sports, especially at the pro level.

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09-25-2013, 09:00 PM
  #11
guymez
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I had them as a bubble team with RNH missing about 10 games.
Now with 1 legit NHL centre on the team for 1 month and 2 legit centres after the first 2 months of the season it would be miraculous for them to make it.

Smart money says it will be 8 years with no playoffs which has to amount to one of the worst records of futility in NHL history.


Last edited by guymez: 09-25-2013 at 11:25 PM.
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09-25-2013, 09:02 PM
  #12
Valic
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If we had Nuge and Gagner I'd say yes. No way we don't have any more significant injuries in the first half of the season and if there's any more overlap we don't have the depth.

We are in tough. Were gonna be weakest at the point we need to win, our games against the east. We needed to rack up some Eastern road wins to set ourselves up for later. Don't see it happening now.

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09-25-2013, 09:03 PM
  #13
ghostnights
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk View Post
No single player (especially forward) can have that much of an impact on the game/a team's season in general. The difference between with and without Taylor Hall over a full 82 game season is probably only ~4-8 points (2-4 wins, and this is being extremely generous) in the standings(obviously just making this number up but pretty confident it falls somewhere within this range a high percentage of the time). People really tend to overrate the impact of certain players in team sports, especially at the pro level.
Do you think the Islanders would of made the playoffs last year without Tavares? I think you are seriously undervaluing Halls contribution.

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09-25-2013, 09:06 PM
  #14
Connor McOilers
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Based on what we've seen so far I think the additions we've made this year could be enough to grab one of the last spots, but that's only if we weren't without our top 2 centres for 1st and 2nd months of the season.

This sucks but injuries considered I'm predicting we are just a little below 500 until both Gags and Nuge are back, and then with them we'll make a push but still fall short due to the way we start the season. If we do somehow manage to ride our scraps to victory for the first two months then I can see us making it, but that will be a tall order.

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09-25-2013, 09:06 PM
  #15
OilerTyler
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nuge View Post
We've looked too good up to this point not to imo
That kind of logic made me pick O'Sullivan in a pool in 2009

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09-25-2013, 09:09 PM
  #16
oilersfan11
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No,I think we'll finish 9th or 10th.

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09-25-2013, 09:11 PM
  #17
molsonmuscle360
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I think we finish 7th.

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09-25-2013, 09:11 PM
  #18
Toydarian
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I think the Oilers best chance to make the playoffs is via the cross-over wildcard.

The teams EDM will need to best: PHX, CGY, DAL, WPG, NSH, COL, and MIN. I think that is a possibility.

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09-25-2013, 09:13 PM
  #19
Section337
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This is the time of year where, for me, being right in N months is not worth as much as being hopeful right now.

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09-25-2013, 09:17 PM
  #20
duul
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We were close last year. Our team has drastically improved in offence/defence/coaching. I would say we had a very good chance if we stayed healthy. With these injuries it's hard to tell, but if Arcobello can come in and play just like how he did last night then I think we'll be fine.

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09-25-2013, 09:23 PM
  #21
jp7
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I would have voted yes if RNH and Gagner were both healthy to start the season. If we can come out of November at or very close to .500, I think we could potentially make a mid-late season push towards that 8th spot.

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09-25-2013, 09:23 PM
  #22
Trafalgar Law
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Any team without their top 2 centers for 10-20 games is screwed.

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09-25-2013, 09:25 PM
  #23
PavelDatsyuk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostnights View Post
Do you think the Islanders would of made the playoffs last year without Tavares? I think you are seriously undervaluing Halls contribution.
The Islanders were extremely fortunate to make the playoffs regardless. Short term variance has a much larger effect on the results of a shortened season than any single player can. They don't make the playoffs without Tavares because they were right on the cusp and 3-5 wins gets them in, in that scenario (In this case even if Tavares was worth 5 points then they miss without him if everything else plays out the same in a re-trial, and of course it wouldn't)

The best player in the game (forward) is only worth about ~5 wins/10 points I would guess. So 2-4 wins for Hall was being extremely generous like I stated. Personally, I would rate Hall closer to a 1 win player but was just making a point using an extreme case that even at his maximum, career year-type, "media MVP-type" season he would only be contributing 2-4 wins.

You have to think about it like this. A team made up of complete replacement level players (say an expansion team for example) would finish with how many points in the standings? Well our last examples, Columbus and Minnesota came pre-lockout, pre-cap I believe and still managed 71 and 68 points in the standings respectively.

Now adding a star player, say Taylor Hall in his current state to this team, gains them how many points in the standings? I would argue that he adds around 2-3 points to that roster. First, he is replacing a professional player who was getting first line EV and first line PP minutes to begin with. How does Hall's production on a PP look like? Well his GF/60 over the last 3 seasons getting prime PP time is somewhere in the region of 6 GF/60. Well how does that compare to historical average? Historical average over the last 3 years is around 5.85 GF/60 for forwards receiving reasonable time. So Hall's addition to that team PP-wise is going to be around just under 1 goal/season, which adds maybe ~0.5 points (being generous) in the standings for his team.

Obviously his biggest impact is going to be at even strength, where you are getting ~15 minutes of quality possession play. In his current state, I'd still only give him about ~1 win worth of even strength play though.

Add even Sidney Crosby to this hypothetical team. How many points in the standings do you believe they increase? I would argue that it's a number no larger than 10. A single player doesn't have the impact that they do in a sport like basketball (or football if we are talking quarterbacks). The best player in baseball is worth only ~10 wins and that is not even guaranteed historically (many seasons the best player is worth only 8-9 wins). On top of that there are 162 games, so there are many more win-fractions or parts of wins for players to earn throughout a season. Now, say we replace this hypothetical team's top 4 dmen with Vancouver's top 4. I would argue that this kind of an upgrade would be worth around ~5 wins as well, equivalent or greater to the addition of Crosby to this team. A hockey team needs 20+ players at the NHL level and at least 15 good players. No single player can carry a terrible team to an above average spot.

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09-25-2013, 09:26 PM
  #24
jukon
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I predict we will finish top 5 in the West. I think we can do it.

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09-25-2013, 09:28 PM
  #25
The Nuge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk View Post
No single player (especially forward) can have that much of an impact on the game/a team's season in general. The difference between with and without Taylor Hall over a full 82 game season is probably only ~4-8 points (2-4 wins, and this is being extremely generous) in the standings(obviously just making this number up but pretty confident it falls somewhere within this range a high percentage of the time). People really tend to overrate the impact of certain players in team sports, especially at the pro level.
I'm pretty sure Chris Pronger proved otherwise

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