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San Jose's top prospect continued

View Poll Results: Who is San Jose's second best?
Mirco Mueller 39 45.35%
Dan O'Regan 1 1.16%
Harri Sateri 0 0%
Daniil Tarasov 1 1.16%
Matt Nieto 36 41.86%
Freddie Hamilton 3 3.49%
Matt Tennyson 1 1.16%
Dylan Demelo 0 0%
Chris Tierney 1 1.16%
Gabryel Paquin-Boudreau 0 0%
Sebastian Stalberg 1 1.16%
J.P. Anderson 0 0%
Emil Galimov 1 1.16%
Konrad Abelthauster 1 1.16%
Sena Acolatse 1 1.16%
Sean Kuraly 0 0%
Voters: 86. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
08-24-2013, 10:43 PM
  #1
SJSharks39
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San Jose's top prospect continued

Who is the second best prospect in the Sharks system?

1-Tomas Hertl-84.42%

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08-24-2013, 11:22 PM
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SactoShork
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I think Nieto will have a great opportunity to succeed this season.

I kinda feel weird for not voting Tennyson considering he's already played in the NHL, and faired pretty well. But where he would be used won't give him as much opportunity as Nieto should see.

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08-24-2013, 11:25 PM
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Gene Parmesan
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I think as far as raw potential goes Mueller is number 1. He has physical attributes you can't teach. Hertl is number 1 due to hes pretty close to NHL ready while Mueller is a few years off. Nieto is a clear cut #3.

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08-24-2013, 11:35 PM
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Our prospect pool may not be flooded with bluechip prospects, but when you look at it, we do have a very solid core of prospects.

Hertl, Nieto, Hamilton, Tennyson, Abeltshauser, Mueller

They all bring their own thing to a team that's required and are have similar top end projections. (Hertl, Nieto both top 6 forwards.. Potential to be top line players-- Hamilton has elite third line C potential -- Mueller has top pairing potential, Abelt and Tennyson both have top 4 potential.)

I will find it hard to vote after the third round, as I feel Hertl > Mueller > Nieto and the rest are evenly spread.

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08-24-2013, 11:38 PM
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do0glas
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going with mueller

partly because hes a 1st rounder in a strong draft. partly because of the hype around him from multiple sources, and partly due to his position and the lack of offense from our left side blue line.

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08-24-2013, 11:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharksfan83 View Post
Our prospect pool may not be flooded with bluechip prospects, but when you look at it, we do have a very solid core of prospects.

Hertl, Nieto, Hamilton, Tennyson, Abeltshauser, Mueller

They all bring their own thing to a team that's required and are have similar top end projections. (Hertl, Nieto both top 6 forwards.. Potential to be top line players-- Hamilton has elite third line C potential -- Mueller has top pairing potential, Abelt and Tennyson both have top 4 potential.)

I will find it hard to vote after the third round, as I feel Hertl > Mueller > Nieto and the rest are evenly spread.
I have Konrad topping out as a 5/6 pp trigger like Kurtis Foster (just an example). Dylan DeMelo is a darkhorse.

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08-25-2013, 01:13 AM
  #7
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FYI I'm the one vote for Tennyson. I wanted to vote Mueller but tbh I haven't really seen him play. I love Tennyson.

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08-25-2013, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharksfan83 View Post
Our prospect pool may not be flooded with bluechip prospects, but when you look at it, we do have a very solid core of prospects.

Hertl, Nieto, Hamilton, Tennyson, Abeltshauser, Mueller

They all bring their own thing to a team that's required and are have similar top end projections. (Hertl, Nieto both top 6 forwards.. Potential to be top line players-- Hamilton has elite third line C potential -- Mueller has top pairing potential, Abelt and Tennyson both have top 4 potential.)

I will find it hard to vote after the third round, as I feel Hertl > Mueller > Nieto and the rest are evenly spread.
When you're asking who is the best prospect are you asking about pure upside, closest to the NHL, or a reasonable expectation on where they'll top out (an example being Hamilton has a high probability of being a good 3rd liner).

I would have 3 different prospects listed depending on what definition you have in mind.

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08-25-2013, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by stalockrox View Post
When you're asking who is the best prospect are you asking about pure upside, closest to the NHL, or a reasonable expectation on where they'll top out (an example being Hamilton has a high probability of being a good 3rd liner).

I would have 3 different prospects listed depending on what definition you have in mind.
I like your separation of the qualities to be judged. I tend to use the last (reasonable expectation) which is salted with a little bit of closest. The closer they are, the easier it is to judge.

I am not thrilled with Mirco because, my reasonable expectation is third pairing based on how the Sharks generally handle and judge their defensive prospects. I place quality third liners above third pairing dmen as they are more difficult to find. A quality third liner is a 35-40pt forward (at least 3 seasons in a career). That is where I would put Nieto. I put third pairing in a class with average third liners 25-30pts for at least 3 seasons.

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08-25-2013, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
I like your separation of the qualities to be judged. I tend to use the last (reasonable expectation) which is salted with a little bit of closest. The closer they are, the easier it is to judge.

I am not thrilled with Mirco because, my reasonable expectation is third pairing based on how the Sharks generally handle and judge their defensive prospects. I place quality third liners above third pairing dmen as they are more difficult to find. A quality third liner is a 35-40pt forward (at least 3 seasons in a career). That is where I would put Nieto. I put third pairing in a class with average third liners 25-30pts for at least 3 seasons.
I have a feeling the chances are good that Nieto will suprise you. He most definitely has the makings of a top 6 forward, quality third liner at the very least. With Nieto and Hertl fighting for spots this year we actually have some skilled forward prospects! Its a nice change of pace. O'Regan will be fun for me to follow this year as well, it will be interesting to see how he does without Nieto.

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08-25-2013, 05:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
I like your separation of the qualities to be judged. I tend to use the last (reasonable expectation) which is salted with a little bit of closest. The closer they are, the easier it is to judge.

I am not thrilled with Mirco because, my reasonable expectation is third pairing based on how the Sharks generally handle and judge their defensive prospects. I place quality third liners above third pairing dmen as they are more difficult to find. A quality third liner is a 35-40pt forward (at least 3 seasons in a career). That is where I would put Nieto. I put third pairing in a class with average third liners 25-30pts for at least 3 seasons.
These players, drafted by the Sharks, played for the 5th best D in the league last year, correct? Which ones were always or will always be 3rd pairing?

Irwin (38), Braun(41), Vlasic(48), Stuart(48), Demers (22), Murray (29 Traded)

Sharks also drafted Carle and Erhoff.

Where do Irwin and Tennyson fit in your assessment chart?

Their share of busts does not lead me to believe they will "ruin" Mirco.

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08-25-2013, 05:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KirbyDots;70508987[B
]I have a feeling the chances are good that Nieto will suprise you.[/B] He most definitely has the makings of a top 6 forward, quality third liner at the very least. With Nieto and Hertl fighting for spots this year we actually have some skilled forward prospects! Its a nice change of pace. O'Regan will be fun for me to follow this year as well, it will be interesting to see how he does without Nieto.
I agree with you.

I don't have the same points criteria that Easy does (a 40pt winger is an average 2nd liner to me) and I think Nieto could be a 20-20 player with some defensive value in the NHL.

It is going to be interesting to see how O'Regan does this season. I have a feeling he's going to carry the BU offense and have a good year.

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08-25-2013, 05:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
These players, drafted by the Sharks, played for the 5th best D in the league last year, correct? Which ones were always or will always be 3rd pairing?

Irwin (38), Braun(41), Vlasic(48), Stuart(48), Demers (22), Murray (29 Traded)
Not directed at me, but I could see Demers and Braun as #3s, with some top-line fill-ins (like Vlasic-Braun). I really like Tennyson and could see him as a 2nd pairing as well. Not too fond of Irwin though, I could see him as a #5.

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08-25-2013, 06:26 PM
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The reason I was first upset about the Mueller pick, because I thought he was a Doherty-type, which the Sharks have a poor record with. Learning more about Mueller, he's much closer to a Vlasic, Braun, Carle type. I think, Easy, you are being overly pessimistic.

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08-25-2013, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
Not directed at me, but I could see Demers and Braun as #3s, with some top-line fill-ins (like Vlasic-Braun). I really like Tennyson and could see him as a 2nd pairing as well. Not too fond of Irwin though, I could see him as a #5.
Yeh, I am with you on Demers and Braun. On Tennyson, I am really hoping we do see much of him this season. That is why I wasn't too fond of the Hannan signing as the play time Tennyson could get when called upon will thus go to Hannan.

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08-26-2013, 12:43 AM
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
The reason I was first upset about the Mueller pick, because I thought he was a Doherty-type, which the Sharks have a poor record with. Learning more about Mueller, he's much closer to a Vlasic, Braun, Carle type. I think, Easy, you are being overly pessimistic.
Pessimistic would be plugging him in with Wishart and Petrecki (skip Doherty). I am actually more optimistic than that. More pessimistic than the most optimistic projections here however. Comparing to Carle and Ehrhoff would be my version of optimistic. I figure he is more along Braun/Vlasic lines and that it will take him far longer to reach the show than Vlasic.

I am far more cautiously optimistic for O'Regan, Tierney and Kuraly (skip Nieto and Hertl). That means that I am thinking that they are finally turning it around on forwards.


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08-26-2013, 10:05 AM
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Pessimistic would be plugging him in with Wishart and Petrecki (skip Doherty). I am actually more optimistic than that. More pessimistic than the most optimistic projections here however. Comparing to Carle and Ehrhoff would be my version of optimistic. I figure he is more along Braun/Vlasic lines and that it will take him far longer to reach the show than Vlasic.

I am far more cautiously optimistic for O'Regan, Tierney and Kuraly (skip Nieto and Hertl). That means that I am thinking that they are finally turning it around on forwards.
Vlasic is a top pairing d-man and Braun seems to be a legit top 4 d-man, neither of them should be considered 3rd pairing (which is what you said your expectations of Mueller are).

I have very little doubt it will take Mueller longer to develop and reach the NHL then Vlasic but that shouldn't be looked at as a negative. What Vlasic did was rare and is something I consider an anomaly, especially within the Sharks org, and not the 'norm'.

If Mueller becomes long term a two way (25pts) top 4 NHL d-man that pick should be considered a "hit". Anything more and it should be considered a home run.

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08-26-2013, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by stalockrox View Post
Vlasic is a top pairing d-man and Braun seems to be a legit top 4 d-man, neither of them should be considered 3rd pairing (which is what you said your expectations of Mueller are).

I have very little doubt it will take Mueller longer to develop and reach the NHL then Vlasic but that shouldn't be looked at as a negative. What Vlasic did was rare and is something I consider an anomaly, especially within the Sharks org, and not the 'norm'.

If Mueller becomes long term a two way (25pts) top 4 NHL d-man that pick should be considered a "hit". Anything more and it should be considered a home run.
Assuredly middle pairing is a hit for a pick at that point in the draft. Top pairing is a homerun. One more year, and I put Braun in middle pairing. Vlasic doesn't qualify on my benchmarks (TOI and/or points) for top pairing. He pulls down a ranking as a #3. I do think that Vlasic can raise his ranking to a #2. My comparison to Vlasic/Braun was more as to type than ultimate ceiling.

Just for explanation on top pairing versus #3 ranking for me, here it is. Top pairing is 24min TOI for at least 3 years. I'll fudge for a guy who gets no PP time down to 22-23min. I am not fond of the defensive #2 spot because it is the least important of the top 5 skaters in terms of team success, but I allow for it. Here are some guys who get defensive #2 spots, Phillips, Brewer, Foote, Hannan, Rathje, Mitchell and Regehr (not all are current in the ranking but they held it for 3 years). Scuderi pulls a #3 spot. I also have some guys who are two-way who get the #2 spot. Timonen, JayBo, Hamhuis and Seidenberg.

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08-26-2013, 02:32 PM
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If Burns were on D, I'd have Vlasic as the #3 guy. That said, how many team's can match him as a #3? Hard to say that a guy is a #3, when only 4-5 teams have an equivalent #3. I would concede that he is ideally a #3, but with 30 teams, he is a mid/lower-level #2.

Closest would be:
  • Pietro/Bouwmeester/Shattenkirk (yes)
  • Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmmarsson (push)
  • Weber/Jones/Josi (no)
  • Edler/Hambuis/Bieska (push- depends on style preference)
  • Johnson/Tyutin/Wisniewski (push- depends on style preference)
  • Carlson/Green/Azlner (currently no)
  • OEL/Yandle/Michalek (no)

I'll say this though, the team is going to need either a tweener first liner, or tweener top pairing in addition to Boyle, Marleau, and Thornton after this year.

I'd look to acquire a top 6 forward at the deadline is cost controlled through next year, and try to grab another next year in free agency. If you can get a 2/3 d-man even better (I believe Burns is the perfect winger for Joe), but I don't think that's realistic.

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08-26-2013, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by matt trick View Post
If Burns were on D, I'd have Vlasic as the #3 guy. That said, how many team's can match that?

Closest would be:
  • Pietro/Bouwmeester/Shattenkirk (yes)
  • Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmmarsson (push)
  • Weber/Jones/Josi (no)
  • Edler/Hambuis/Bieska (push- depends on style preference)
  • Johnson/Tyutin/Wisniewski (push- depends on style preference)
  • Carlson/Green/Azlner (currently no)
  • OEL/Yandle/Michalek (no)
Add Pitt. Letang/Martin/Scuderi-Orpik.

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08-26-2013, 02:37 PM
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Add Pitt. Letang/Martin/Scuderi-Orpik.
I'd buy that, though I do (not*) consider Scuderi-Vlasic about equivalent.


*Jux- added the ever important word "not"


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08-26-2013, 02:40 PM
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I think vlasics biggest attribute is that you can pair him with an offensive dman against top comp. they will likely succeed at both ends on ES.

yes i can pair him with braun and make him look like a second pairing, but i think a top two way pair is more valuable. braun/demers/stuart do not NEED to face top comp. vlasic in a purely defensive role against top comp is nice in some instances, but id rather have a pairing that can score and be at least reliable in their own zone.

in his year with boyle he was close to 20 min/g at ES. boyle was pushing 30 due to PP time. he was essentially a # 3 on the team behind boyle/burns. with no burns, i think you make sure boyle/vlasic take those two top spots.

this year he was #2 in TOI, and unfortunately that bumped stuart up to #3.

so id rather see

vlasic/boyle [top comp vlasic-pk boyle-pp]
stuart/braun [second tier both on pk]
irwin/demers. [easiest comp-second unit pp-demers split time on pk]

i think we get the best out of everyone in this situation.

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08-26-2013, 02:54 PM
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Vlasic is a gazillion times better than Scuderi.

Easy, I agree with you in general about the defensive specialist topping out as a #3 guy, but Vlasic is an exception in my opinion. Yes, he could use work on decision-making with the puck, but defensively he's just so absurdly perfect he deserves to be considered a solid #2. I struggle to name better defensive defensemen than him. As far as pure defensive ability, I have him top-5 in the league.

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08-26-2013, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by do0glas View Post
I think vlasics biggest attribute is that you can pair him with an offensive dman against top comp. they will likely succeed at both ends on ES.

yes i can pair him with braun and make him look like a second pairing, but i think a top two way pair is more valuable. braun/demers/stuart do not NEED to face top comp. vlasic in a purely defensive role against top comp is nice in some instances, but id rather have a pairing that can score and be at least reliable in their own zone.

in his year with boyle he was close to 20 min/g at ES. boyle was pushing 30 due to PP time. he was essentially a # 3 on the team behind boyle/burns. with no burns, i think you make sure boyle/vlasic take those two top spots.

this year he was #2 in TOI, and unfortunately that bumped stuart up to #3.

so id rather see

vlasic/boyle [top comp vlasic-pk boyle-pp]
stuart/braun [second tier both on pk]
irwin/demers. [easiest comp-second unit pp-demers split time on pk]

i think we get the best out of everyone in this situation.
He's been #2 in TOI for several years and for the past couple of seasons he has consistently taken on the tough minutes and succeeded - he's a top pairing d-man. I very rarely agree with Easy's "criteria" for top line / top pairing, 2nd line / 2nd pairing, etc.

The one thing that's really improved over the past 3 seasons is that he's made whatever partner they've skated with him better.

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08-26-2013, 03:03 PM
  #25
SJeasy
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I'd buy that, though I do consider Scuderi-Vlasic about equivalent.
I was trying to figure your misses. There wasn't much. The following were the closest. I had a few minor quibbles with your comparisons but not much there either. NYR is weird with 3 #2's when healthy, Girardi, McDonagh, Staal. Montreal has two #1's offensively along with Gorges. The Peg has two #1's offensively with no real shutdown.

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