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Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXIII: The Return of Michael Jordan

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Old
09-17-2013, 12:50 PM
  #176
brs03
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Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Could you explain to me how fancystats determines that he alone gave up those chances while absolving from responsibility the other 4 skaters on the ice? That is the part of fancystats that I find the coolest yet I can never remember how it is done exactly.

I see in European soccer services that chart pretty much everything occurring in a game and actually assigning personal responsibility for actions. Obviously that takes some time but it is pretty easy to understand.

Yet NHL fancystats has actually found a way to do the same thing based only on the actions and who was on the ice during said actions. I mean we all know that sometimes all 5 guys screw the pooch and sometimes it is just one guy. So what are the equations fancystats uses in those different situations again?
Well, you can use WOWYs (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...012-13&sit=f10). Or you can just draw the conclusion that over a large sample the person with the worst of a given stat compared to his peers is most likely the one at fault (and here's a big thing: Erskine was soooo much worse than Carlson in some of the possession measures despite them playing so much time together. I don't really know how that happens even though I believe he's by far the weak link there). See e.g. http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...20&sortdir=ASC

You're free to blame his teammates for Erskine's underlying numbers. That may be totally fair wrt the lack of chances for when he's on the ice, of course, since you don't expect the D to drive play there that much regardless. I'll never be comfortable relying on the person who looks the worst by those measures, though.

And none of that changes that he got *really* good goaltending behind him (only Orlov got better). On-ice sv% is generally not considered a repeatable skill, so that's a big chance of heartbreak right there if you're looking for a similar performance this season.

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09-17-2013, 01:37 PM
  #177
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Not asking anyone to look, but I am curious if Erskines playoff superstats WOWSIES Whoopsies whatever you want to call them, match up with the clear struggles we saw.

It has to go both ways. He plays meh no glaring giveaways for goals, stats say he sucks behind the scenes; but then gets injured plays like crap can barely skate - we should be able to see a huge drop.

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09-17-2013, 02:48 PM
  #178
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in my view, the biggest problem with 4 last playoffs was he was afraid to handle the puck for some reason. over and over he would lose the puck at his feet with no forecheck pressure and end up having it taken away from him.

it wasn't so much his knee was dinged and he was slow. it was something Id never seen him do before. he did it all the time in the playoffs. now I would not expect to see it again. I don't know what that was.

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09-17-2013, 03:04 PM
  #179
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I am a broken record but I think Caps fans must be forced to admit Erksine has largely held his own in playoffs. He should have at least met reasonable expectations and exceeded them a few times.

Flyers - he and Eminger's fine play landed us Carlson B+. Started the last 3 games.
NYR - Boarded Avery more times than I can count. B+ maybe A-
Pitt - Broken Foot horrible series. But Poti Mo Green all got the same grade D-
Canadians - Didn't dress. We rolled Sarge. Mega Choke. No Grade.
Rangers - Don't remember but we won. C
Lightning - Don't remember but all sucked. C
Rangers - Don't remember but he got 3-4GP and we won. B-
Boston/NYR - Didn't dress / 1GP? We rolled Sarge. Mega Choke. No Grade.
Rangers - Unknown Illness. horrible series. Grade D-

Keep turning a blind eye to how he finished out this last RS. Strong. Strong as an Ox. Against fine competition. Oleksy said he played like a captain. He led us into the playoffs while the worthless and weak watched.

The only time he looked as bad was against Pitt. Back when we revealed injuries the day after elimination.


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09-17-2013, 04:55 PM
  #180
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in my view, the biggest problem with 4 last playoffs was he was afraid to handle the puck for some reason. over and over he would lose the puck at his feet with no forecheck pressure and end up having it taken away from him.

it wasn't so much his knee was dinged and he was slow. it was something Id never seen him do before. he did it all the time in the playoffs. now I would not expect to see it again. I don't know what that was.
Which is probably why Oates gave Johnny an unequivocal vote of confidence today. Irrespective of how whatever injury he had affected him physically, I'd guess some doubt creeped into Ersk's mind after he was dinged up, and it slowed his read/reaction time, which caused him to hurry, which then led to many horrific puck cough-ups. For now, Oates wants to put him at ease and keep that doubt from coming back. It's the right move. If puck-coughing Johnny returns, well, then you deal with it - but at the moment, Oates is right to treat it like an aberration.

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09-17-2013, 06:15 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Not asking anyone to look, but I am curious if Erskines playoff superstats WOWSIES Whoopsies whatever you want to call them, match up with the clear struggles we saw.

It has to go both ways. He plays meh no glaring giveaways for goals, stats say he sucks behind the scenes; but then gets injured plays like crap can barely skate - we should be able to see a huge drop.
Yeah, it's there. He posted a -5.8 Corsi Rel in the regular season, worst on the team outside of Schultz. In the post season it was a -14.9, dead last. And that's just corsi, so that's ignoring the fact that he went from having an on ice sv% of .945 to just .891.

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09-17-2013, 06:29 PM
  #182
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Should note that even in the playoffs his raw Corsi was pretty good (Caps in general had the edge there in that series), but a big part of that is that Corsi penalizes you for blocking shots, and our opponent was the Rags...

(I can't figure out how to get WOWYs done with the playoff data, not in the nice chart form).

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09-17-2013, 07:24 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by Zoidberg Jesus View Post
Yeah, it's there. He posted a -5.8 Corsi Rel in the regular season, worst on the team outside of Schultz. In the post season it was a -14.9, dead last. And that's just corsi, so that's ignoring the fact that he went from having an on ice sv% of .945 to just .891.
Ok good thanks, i just thought it would be a basic check of the metrics, a good way to confirm some superstats often quoted here, that otherwise seem difficult to pick off watching games. Using a nice small sample size, bad play and consensus among fans of his play.

Many times those stats are used, is when they surprise posters. If that is the only time people like me see them, we have nothing to compare them against.

I prefer to use my own eyes which I admit don't always tell the tale.

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09-18-2013, 12:29 AM
  #184
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Come on, everyone.

I mean, seriously.

We have a 33 year old stay at home defenseman (read slow). One who has barely been top 6 in his entire career, and now we are supposed to believe that he has morphed into some reincarnation of Hal Gill, and will be the top 4 vet dman that leads this team on its first deep playoff run, since 1998??

Is that really what we are debating? The likelihood of that "plan" working out well?

Can I sell futures on that please? Like, today?

Maybe Danius Zubrus will morph into a first line center on a Cup Winner too?

Oh.

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09-18-2013, 02:19 AM
  #185
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Kinda think its crazy talk Oates saying Erksine is a top 4. I can see "maybe" again some teams that are slower and more physical. Against the fast/transition/skilled team he better be a 3rd pairing or sitting, imho.

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09-18-2013, 06:56 AM
  #186
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Kinda think its crazy talk Oates saying Erksine is a top 4. I can see "maybe" again some teams that are slower and more physical. Against the fast/transition/skilled team he better be a 3rd pairing or sitting, imho.
I think Randy was on to something with the idea that they were mainly doing it as a confidence thing. If the Caps aren't going to get anyone else for that spot, might as well pump up the guy who was playing there last year.

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09-18-2013, 08:13 AM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
I think Randy was on to something with the idea that they were mainly doing it as a confidence thing. If the Caps aren't going to get anyone else for that spot, might as well pump up the guy who was playing there last year.
Maybe you meant someone else. But your or whoevers point may well stand. Give the guy a vote of confidence. Why not. It don't cost nuttin'.

The average fan loves him for his fisticuffs and style harder core fans see limitations and prefer an upgrade. But an upgrade mandates a roster trade which just seem very rare. We probably can't even add the best guy in camp onto our opening night roster. No Room



Tell them Laich is a center!

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09-18-2013, 08:13 AM
  #188
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At 15-17 minutes a night, he's an ok player.

I don't know that he's your clear choice to be a top 4 defenseman, but he might need to be for this roster until they get some younger players ready to go.

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09-18-2013, 08:41 AM
  #189
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I like erskine and thinks he does his job. And he has improved each of the last 2 seasons with more responsibility. Unless we bring in a 2000 Chris Pronger, that role for erskine is very much required.

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09-18-2013, 09:07 AM
  #190
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Originally Posted by Zoidberg Jesus View Post
Well, I guess this settles the conversation about Erskine.



Source

Looking more and more like there's no place for Orlov on this team.
Ahahahaha...Erskine hators flipping a lid! Love it!

Adam Oates has long been considered on the top minds in hockey ...coincidence that he shares a great many views with the Tinner??? I think NOT!

The hators, 90% of people on here, try to hide their hate and rarely give the guy his due but the fact is this is the NHL...you NEED a tough dman in your top 4....You need a few of them on the backend. I see no way Oleksy is losing his job either and generally Erskine hators and Oleksy hators are one and the same.

Still people will continue to undervalue toughness and overvalue skating/puckmoving. Some will never ever learn.

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The average fan loves him for his fisticuffs and style harder core fans see limitations and prefer an upgrade. But an upgrade mandates a roster trade which just seem very rare. We probably can't even add the best guy in camp onto our opening night roster. No Room
This whole upgrade business...sure I'm all for it. But people will differ on what an "upgrade" really is. They usually mean " someone who skates better and handles the puck better"

If you can find me someone like that who also brings the same level of toughness Erskine brings then I'm fine with it. But last I checked guys like Chris Pronger don't grow on trees right?

Oates and Hunter....sometimes I cant figure things out. Hunter was known for his toughness as a player but gave Schultz millions of chances while relegating Erskine to the depths of the roster.

Oates...who was continually in the Lady Bing hunting completely understands what a "force" Erskine is and how important the element he brings is.

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Originally Posted by Ridley Simon View Post
Come on, everyone.

I mean, seriously.

We have a 33 year old stay at home defenseman (read slow). One who has barely been top 6 in his entire career, and now we are supposed to believe that he has morphed into some reincarnation of Hal Gill, and will be the top 4 vet dman that leads this team on its first deep playoff run, since 1998??

Oh.
Erskine is nothing like that big soft buttercup and the fact you mention them in the same breathe (in fact elevating Gill higher) shows you really disrespect "tuffnezz". I thought better of you in that regard.

Gill was a big version of Jeff Schultz who was marginally tougher and not quite as dumb.

We haven't had toughness in the top 4 (close to what Erskine brings) since Tinordi left


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09-18-2013, 09:09 AM
  #191
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Here's where to spend our 2014 under the cap money:

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...artner=ya5nbcs

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09-18-2013, 09:13 AM
  #192
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Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
Ahahahaha...Erskine hators flipping a lid! Love it!

Adam Oates has long been considered on the top minds in hockey ...coincidence that he shares a great many views with the Tinner??? I think NOT!

The hators, 90% of people on here, try to hide their hate and rarely give the guy his due but the fact is this is the NHL...you NEED a tough dman in your top 4....You need a few of them on the backend. I see no way Oleksy is losing his job either and generally Erskine hators and Oleksy hators are one and the same.

Still people will continue to undervalue toughness and overvalue skating/puckmoving. Some will never ever learn.
Did you know that they make defensemen who are competent AND tough? 2 who fit that mold (and have a cup) just signed reasonable deals this offseason.

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09-18-2013, 09:19 AM
  #193
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@BR....You might need a tough Dman in your top 4, but playing a decent 5/6 over his head to get it is probably a mistake.

@Rids...defensemen develop at an older age then any other position in the game. this is why throwing in the towel on Green that he is a playoff choker or a one way player or too injury prone at 23 years old was such a dubious mistake. at his current age Erskine has improved thru coaching and experience from questionable 7d to a pretty solid 5d. to dismiss that is to ignore the reality.

I think Erskine is a liveable regular season 4d when teams generally don't game plan to the middle of the lineup and half the teams are not 2nd round or better playoff contenders. In the playoffs, he's exposed should only be a 2nd pair defenseman when there is an injury to fill.

@bcf. if legwand is available he's either too far over the hill or two expensive for his production. that article looks like a lot about nothing anyway. oh and which tough cup winning top 4 d were just signed to reasonable deals this off season? scuderi is the only one that comes to mind. his contact at 4 years isn't that reasonable at his age and style of play and from hearing him talk, when Pittsburgh said they wanted him back, he was no longer interested in anywhere else.


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09-18-2013, 09:20 AM
  #194
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Erskine 'hators' aren't valuing skating/puckmoving over toughness. They're valuing playing consistently good defense over not. If Erskine's hockey sense could compensate for his lack of mobility (as it did for guy's like Pronger and Hatcher in the past) there'd be no issue with Erskine in the top 4.

Erskine gets caught chasing (and can't catch up due to his slowness afoot) too often. That's the issue. It limits how much he can assert his physicality/toughness. That's why people want his ice time limited (as the 3LD). There's certain types of opposing forwards he just can't handle, and his matchups need to be controlled as much as possible.

I'd be thrilled with a Chris Phillips, Tim Gleason, Francois Beauchemin, or Andrew Ference as the 2LD. None of them are lacking in toughness.

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09-18-2013, 09:57 AM
  #195
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George clearly likes Erskine. Adam seemingly bought in, but does he have any choice?

I am still not convinced Orlov will fit under the cap without George losing Kundratek or someone else on waivers. We can include Schlling and Schmidt on the can't fit list. The main competition for Erskine.

Oates only choice is to move up Hillen, or give the Big E a vote of confidence.

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09-18-2013, 10:00 AM
  #196
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TX

We don't have a better option and quite frankly to have a dman who encompasses all those things is not an easy find. We have zero toughness/hitting when Erskine isn't in the lineup at all and if we put him on the 3rd pairing his value will be diminished in that regard.

Wiz,

Gleason sucks now and is out of gas. Ference is an OK player but nowhere near the level of toughness Erskine brings. Phillips was a solid dman but he's slowed down and was never exceedingly tough. Beacheman is excellent but its rare to find players like that.

Brooklyn,

Who are these dmen?? Honestly I'm trying to think of the signings and don't recall anyone who fits my definition. Scuderi? He's a solid positional shot blocking type dman but he doesn't bring the pain. We don't need another player like that. We need a big hitter who punishes people in the crease.

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George clearly likes Erskine. Adam seemingly bought in, but does he have any choice?
hmmm...GMGM didn't force Hunter or BB to play Erskine all the while resigning him.

I think his fondness of Erskine just goes to prove that he really is coming around and understanding the need for far greater toughness on the team. That is one of our biggest issues year in and year out.

People complain about 2C, top 4 vet D etc but team toughness is what we really lack and have been getting better about.

I remember Erskine being out of the lineup due to suspension ...this was before we brought in the big O I believe....we played Pitt twice (again I think) in that span.

Our D as a whole combined for like 3 hits in those 2 games. Absolutely unacceptable. Not a coincidence we got trounced in each game.

I truly believe Oates just "gets it"


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09-18-2013, 10:09 AM
  #197
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Smid, Robidas, Orpik, Polak, Emelin, Seidenberg

All of these are additional guys outside of the very top, unattainable echelon who bring the pain more often and more effectively than Erskine. They're also significantly better at playing defense. The type of player is not nearly as rare as you're making it out to be. There's also a swath of players that bring more pain, but are only slightly better than Erskine (those in the Eric Brewer tier).

You overrate the level of toughness Erskine brings to the ice, I think. How often do we see him absolutely flatten players?

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09-18-2013, 10:18 AM
  #198
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Smid, Robidas, Orpik, Polak, Emelin, Seidenberg

All of these are additional guys outside of the very top, unattainable echelon who bring the pain more often and more effectively than Erskine. They're also significantly better at playing defense. The type of player is not nearly as rare as you're making it out to be. There's also a swath of players that bring more pain, but are only slightly better than Erskine (those in the Eric Brewer tier).

You overrate the level of toughness Erskine brings to the ice, I think. How often do we see him absolutely flatten players?
Every time BCF posts

I'd take Robidas any day of the week, though his age is catching up. No need to even ask about Seidenberg.

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09-18-2013, 10:20 AM
  #199
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Smid, Robidas, Orpik, Polak, Emelin, Seidenberg

All of these are additional guys outside of the very top, unattainable echelon who bring the pain more often and more effectively than Erskine. They're also significantly better at playing defense. The type of player is not nearly as rare as you're making it out to be. There's also a swath of players that bring more pain, but are only slightly better than Erskine (those in the Eric Brewer tier).

You overrate the level of toughness Erskine brings to the ice, I think. How often do we see him absolutely flatten players?
You named like 6 players. There are 120 top 4 dmen so thats a pretty small percentage.

There is a reason why teams cling to those kinds of players. I don't see Pitt letting Orpik go and no way Montreal lets go of Emelin.

Robidas is undersized. I like Seidenberg and thought it was a big mistake that GMGM went after Corvo instead of him in 2010.

Erskine hits a ton. At least thats how I see it and maybe b/c I look for hits. His hits hurt through the TV even when he doesn't get to take but a half stride to his target. He's a beast. He hits more than Carlson/Alzner/Hillen/Kundratek combined.

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09-18-2013, 10:26 AM
  #200
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TX

We don't have a better option and quite frankly to have a dman who encompasses all those things is not an easy find. We have zero toughness/hitting when Erskine isn't in the lineup at all and if we put him on the 3rd pairing his value will be diminished in that regard.

Wiz,

Gleason sucks now and is out of gas. Ference is an OK player but nowhere near the level of toughness Erskine brings. Phillips was a solid dman but he's slowed down and was never exceedingly tough. Beacheman is excellent but its rare to find players like that.

Brooklyn,

Who are these dmen?? Honestly I'm trying to think of the signings and don't recall anyone who fits my definition. Scuderi? He's a solid positional shot blocking type dman but he doesn't bring the pain. We don't need another player like that. We need a big hitter who punishes people in the crease.
Ference and Scuderi. Both tougher than any of our dmen not named Erskine. Both better defensively than any of our dmen not named Alzner.

And how is Beuchemin a rare player? He was available to every team in the league for a reasonable cap hit a few years back.

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