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06-02-2014, 09:17 PM
  #1
victor
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On trading Nail Yakupov

"Nail Yakupov is coming off of one of the worst sophmore slumps in history."

Is that really true? While his season wasn't great, was it really that bad? For this, I took the first 82 games that each player below scored in their first 82 games. Very few of the players on the list below played their first full year (and Yakupov is short of experience due to the lockout.)

For comparative results, see below:

Nail went 82gp - 22g - 21a - 43pts -28 17:59

A. 82gp - 19g - 40a - 59pts -4 18:20
B. 82GP - 24g - 30a - 54pts -15 18:00
C. 82gp - 25g - 28a - 53pts -11 17:59
D. 82gp - 25g - 25a - 50pts -13 15:29

The players above? A. RNH, B. Hall, C. Tavares, D. Stamkos.

Goals are certainly in range. Average minutes played is similar, with an outlier (explanation.)

Nail's assists totals are less, though, and his plus/minus is quite bad (although all of the players, except for RNH, show poorly.)

So, what's the risk in moving Yakupov? At a similar juncture to their careers, another player was touted to be the worst #1 overall forward chosen in the last decade.

Thoughts?

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06-02-2014, 09:21 PM
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The risk is dependent on whether or not a xenophobic coach, media, and chunk of a fanbase continue their dog pile.

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06-02-2014, 09:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
"Nail Yakupov is coming off of one of the worst sophmore slumps in history."

Is that really true?

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06-02-2014, 09:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
"Nail Yakupov is coming off of one of the worst sophmore slumps in history."

Is that really true? While his season wasn't great, was it really that bad? For this, I took the first 82 games that each player below scored in their first 82 games. Very few of the players on the list below played their first full year (and Yakupov is short of experience due to the lockout.)

For comparative results, see below:

Nail went 82gp - 22g - 21a - 43pts -28 17:59

A. 82gp - 19g - 40a - 59pts -4 18:20
B. 82GP - 24g - 30a - 54pts -15 18:00
C. 82gp - 25g - 28a - 53pts -11 17:59
D. 82gp - 25g - 25a - 50pts -13 15:29

The players above? A. RNH, B. Hall, C. Tavares, D. Stamkos.

Goals are certainly in range. Average minutes played is similar, with an outlier (explanation.)

Nail's assists totals are less, though, and his plus/minus is quite bad (although all of the players, except for RNH, show poorly.)

So, what's the risk in moving Yakupov? At a similar juncture to their careers, another player was touted to be the worst #1 overall forward chosen in the last decade.

Thoughts?
Another thing Yakupov has in common with the other four is his work ethic and desire to be great. I predict a breakout year for Nail this season coming. Especially if the Oilers can find a second line center to balance the top six. Nail will score 30+ goals...you watch.

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06-02-2014, 09:37 PM
  #5
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IMO the Oilers will be fine with Yak getting a good chance this year since he did only play in his first full 82 game schedule.

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06-02-2014, 09:43 PM
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24 points for a sophomore season is embarrassing regardless of how many games played. We can't just pro-rate everyone and pretend that it's the same. It also doesn't help that he was a -33 despite being -4 the previous year.

Yakupov had a terrible year, so let's just deal with it and move on. I still have complete faith in his ability to bounce back and score 40 goals.

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06-02-2014, 09:46 PM
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victor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camboy View Post
Another thing Yakupov has in common with the other four is his work ethic and desire to be great. I predict a breakout year for Nail this season coming. Especially if the Oilers can find a second line center to balance the top six. Nail will score 30+ goals...you watch.
Yep - looking at the numbers, we forget how young these players are, and how much development (even for 1st overalls) is needed.

I was reading a post that spoke to good #1 picks, and Yakupov and Hopkins were called out as poor ones. The Hopkins item shocked me a bit, but it also tweaked a memory of an old thread - the Hall thread.

If Yakupov had hit 30 goals this season, he would be tied for 16th with Martin St. Louis, Patrice Bergeron, James van Riemsdyk, Jarome Iginla, Jason Pominville, and Marian Hossa. If he hit 35, he would be tied with Chris Kunitz for 8th.

None of the players I looked at developed in a straight line. What are the odds that Yakupov scores 30 in the next three seasons? 35?

Hard decisions are coming.

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06-02-2014, 09:47 PM
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The risk is dependent on whether or not a xenophobic coach, media, and chunk of a fanbase continue their dog pile.
The truth. Right there.

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06-02-2014, 09:49 PM
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I wish I was expecting more, but I just think Yaks will not live up to his hype. That being Said I think he will turn into a 25 goal 55 point 2nd line winger. He will get better defensively and become a player similar to Radim Vrbata or Mat Moulson, something like that. I hope I am wrong, but I just can't see him exploding and becoming the 50 goal type player that he was perhaps hyped to be.

ps. would not trade him.

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06-02-2014, 09:53 PM
  #10
victor
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Originally Posted by DousedInOil View Post
24 points for a sophomore season is embarrassing regardless of how many games played. We can't just pro-rate everyone and pretend that it's the same. It also doesn't help that he was a -33 despite being -4 the previous year.

Yakupov had a terrible year, so let's just deal with it and move on. I still have complete faith in his ability to bounce back and score 40 goals.
I'm not sure that it is, and that's kind of the point that I'm trying to make.

Ryan Johansen went 40gp - 5g - 7a - 12pts in 2012-13. (Scored 33 the next year, though, so there's hope )

True, he was only -7, but lets not kid ourselves, sophmore seasons tend to be difficult ones.

If Yakupov hits 40 goals, he'll likely be in the top 3-4. Would you trade that player, and if so, what would you get?


Last edited by victor: 06-02-2014 at 10:07 PM. Reason: Typo on RyJo's goals, should have been 33, not 30.
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06-02-2014, 10:22 PM
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I was all over Yak a few months ago, but as time has passed I can't help but think that his woes had more to do with Eakins then him being a bust. He isn't a bust, at least it's far too early to label him such.

Here's a tip for the coach and manager: You didn't pick Dustin Brown, so quit trying to turn Yak into him. He will never be Dustin Brown, or even Toews. He isn't Toews.

Used properly, Yak should be a good 1st line player. A 30 - 40 goal scorer. But, I don't think they like him, but, of course, they've handle him so poorly they can't trade him. It's Gagner II, but worse.

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06-02-2014, 10:38 PM
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Make it a poll, who thinks we should keep him, and who thinks we should move him for whatever best he can before he loses his value (he still is a first overall pick - not some random bum that didn't work out in his 2nd season).

I have confidence he'll be a 40+ goal scorer in this league - I just hope it's with Edmonton personally.

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06-02-2014, 10:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
"Nail Yakupov is coming off of one of the worst sophmore slumps in history."

Is that really true? While his season wasn't great, was it really that bad? For this, I took the first 82 games that each player below scored in their first 82 games. Very few of the players on the list below played their first full year (and Yakupov is short of experience due to the lockout.)

For comparative results, see below:

Nail went 82gp - 22g - 21a - 43pts -28 17:59

A. 82gp - 19g - 40a - 59pts -4 18:20
B. 82GP - 24g - 30a - 54pts -15 18:00
C. 82gp - 25g - 28a - 53pts -11 17:59
D. 82gp - 25g - 25a - 50pts -13 15:29

The players above? A. RNH, B. Hall, C. Tavares, D. Stamkos.

Goals are certainly in range. Average minutes played is similar, with an outlier (explanation.)

Nail's assists totals are less, though, and his plus/minus is quite bad (although all of the players, except for RNH, show poorly.)

So, what's the risk in moving Yakupov? At a similar juncture to their careers, another player was touted to be the worst #1 overall forward chosen in the last decade.

Thoughts?
IF he was from Manitoba he would not be being bashed so much

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Old
06-02-2014, 10:39 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
"Nail Yakupov is coming off of one of the worst sophmore slumps in history."

Is that really true? While his season wasn't great, was it really that bad? For this, I took the first 82 games that each player below scored in their first 82 games. Very few of the players on the list below played their first full year (and Yakupov is short of experience due to the lockout.)

For comparative results, see below:

Nail went 82gp - 22g - 21a - 43pts -28 17:59

A. 82gp - 19g - 40a - 59pts -4 18:20
B. 82GP - 24g - 30a - 54pts -15 18:00
C. 82gp - 25g - 28a - 53pts -11 17:59
D. 82gp - 25g - 25a - 50pts -13 15:29

The players above? A. RNH, B. Hall, C. Tavares, D. Stamkos.

Goals are certainly in range. Average minutes played is similar, with an outlier (explanation.)

Nail's assists totals are less, though, and his plus/minus is quite bad (although all of the players, except for RNH, show poorly.)

So, what's the risk in moving Yakupov? At a similar juncture to their careers, another player was touted to be the worst #1 overall forward chosen in the last decade.

Thoughts?
You could use Nail's actual sophomore numbers.... 63GP 11G 13A 24P -33 how those number are remotely close to any of the others you listed, I dunno.

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06-02-2014, 10:45 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Up the Irons View Post
I was all over Yak a few months ago, but as time has passed I can't help but think that his woes had more to do with Eakins then him being a bust. He isn't a bust, at least it's far too early to label him such.

Here's a tip for the coach and manager: You didn't pick Dustin Brown, so quit trying to turn Yak into him. He will never be Dustin Brown, or even Toews. He isn't Toews.

Used properly, Yak should be a good 1st line player. A 30 - 40 goal scorer. But, I don't think they like him, but, of course, they've handle him so poorly they can't trade him. It's Gagner II, but worse.
What I don't get with our coaching, is why dont they send him to the front of the net on the PP? They had him playing the half wall and defence to try and use his one timer as a weapon, but last year he scored a ton of goals off of deflected shots. It's like Eakin never watched any tape of these guys from 2012-13 and thought he knew where they'd succeed.

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06-02-2014, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Jamie View Post
Make it a poll, who thinks we should keep him, and who thinks we should move him for whatever best he can before he loses his value (he still is a first overall pick - not some random bum that didn't work out in his 2nd season).

I have confidence he'll be a 40+ goal scorer in this league - I just hope it's with Edmonton personally.
I think we should trade him to help round out the team. But in saying that I wouldn't trade him for dimes on the dollar. I would want at minimum a top 4 dman, a winger, and a pick. Something like Myers, Foligno, Blues 2015 1st Rounder would get the conversation at least started.

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06-02-2014, 11:00 PM
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What I don't get with our coaching, is why dont they send him to the front of the net on the PP? They had him playing the half wall and defence to try and use his one timer as a weapon, but last year he scored a ton of goals off of deflected shots. It's like Eakin never watched any tape of these guys from 2012-13 and thought he knew where they'd succeed.
Or Eakins could see how the way guys like Stamkos or Ovy are positioned on the PP. Both Yak and Hall have a good bomb, and yet don't get utilized. No wonder our PP went to horse **** under Eakins and Acton.

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06-02-2014, 11:02 PM
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
I think we should trade him to help round out the team. But in saying that I wouldn't trade him for dimes on the dollar. I would want at minimum a top 4 dman, a winger, and a pick. Something like Myers, Foligno, Blues 2015 1st Rounder would get the conversation at least started.
If they wanted to trade him the time was last off-season. Right now his value is likely not very high. He may get you Myers (who himself has been struggling), but I would not count on more.

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06-02-2014, 11:07 PM
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Or Eakins could see how the way guys like Stamkos or Ovy are positioned on the PP. Both Yak and Hall have a good bomb, and yet don't get utilized. No wonder our PP went to horse **** under Eakins and Acton.
This is the biggest problem I have with the way he's been deployed. In order for Yakupov to become the player we need him to be he HAS to get that one timer on the PP going.

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06-02-2014, 11:14 PM
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Another thing Yakupov has in common with the other four is his work ethic and desire to be great. I predict a breakout year for Nail this season coming. Especially if the Oilers can find a second line center to balance the top six. Nail will score 30+ goals...you watch.
It's easy to jump on a 2nd year player falling into a slump when they're not trying, but Yakupov is not that guy. He tries between the intervals of VERY hard and TOO hard, which can be the problem sometimes, but with experience, I see a real player in there.

I'm still pretty shocked how terrible he is away from the puck, but I doubt he scores under 40-50 points next season.

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06-02-2014, 11:15 PM
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He shot 23% in his rookie season.

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06-02-2014, 11:25 PM
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This is the biggest problem I have with the way he's been deployed. In order for Yakupov to become the player we need him to be he HAS to get that one timer on the PP going.
And thats the problem, everyone and there granny knows that the Oilers will be looking for Yak to one time it. It's to easy to defend. Have him go to the front of the net and get goals the way he got the majority of his goals last year off deflections and rebounds. Yakupov's ability to deflect pucks out of the air is up there with Smyth's from what I seen so he should take over that roll. On top of that every now and then we should have a set play off the faceoff where he gets to use his bomb to keep teams guessing.

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06-02-2014, 11:34 PM
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And thats the problem, everyone and there granny knows that the Oilers will be looking for Yak to one time it. It's to easy to defend. Have him go to the front of the net and get goals the way he got the majority of his goals last year off deflections and rebounds. Yakupov's ability to deflect pucks out of the air is up there with Smyth's from what I seen so he should take over that roll. On top of that every now and then we should have a set play off the faceoff where he gets to use his bomb to keep teams guessing.
Everyone and their granny knows the bolts look for Stammer on the one timer and that the Caps look for Ovi but it still works. There's no excuse for it not being a focal point of our special teams every day in practise and in games. Huge Eakins rookie mistake.

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06-02-2014, 11:39 PM
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Everyone and their granny knows the bolts look for Stammer on the one timer and that the Caps look for Ovi but it still works. There's no excuse for it not being a focal point of our special teams every day in practise and in games. Huge Eakins rookie mistake.
Not really, Eakins had everyone looking to Yakupov for the bomb and it ended up with Hall yelling at him on the ice.

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06-02-2014, 11:40 PM
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Everyone and their granny knows the bolts look for Stammer on the one timer and that the Caps look for Ovi but it still works. There's no excuse for it not being a focal point of our special teams every day in practise and in games. Huge Eakins rookie mistake.
Ovy and Stamkos probably have the best one-timers in the world though.

Yak's isn't on that level even if the coaching staff is stupid for not looking for it more.

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