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Old
07-13-2005, 05:01 PM
  #1
Potted Plant
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Statistical programming

OK, I did some statistical programming and came up with the following results. If TSN is right about how the lottery will go, the Rangers' percentages of getting a particular pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 6.0535
3 5.895
4 5.671
5 5.516
6 5.439
7 5.3185
8 5.0285
9 4.865
10 4.765
11 4.4885
12 4.1545
13 4.0665
14 3.8075
15 3.617
16 3.5475
17 3.198
18 2.8485
19 2.6625
20 2.461
21 2.2215
22 1.996
23 1.6375
24 1.3265
25 1.1365
26 0.8215
27 0.6025
28 0.3915
29 0.2265
30 0.0825

Our chances of getting a position at or above a certain pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 12.208
3 18.103
4 23.774
5 29.29
6 34.729
7 40.0475
8 45.076
9 49.941
10 54.706
11 59.1945
12 63.349
13 67.4155
14 71.223
15 74.84
16 78.3875
17 81.5855
18 84.434
19 87.0965
20 89.5575
21 91.779
22 93.775
23 95.4125
24 96.739
25 97.8755
26 98.697
27 99.2995
28 99.691
29 99.9175
30 100

As you can see, there is a 50/50 shot will we get the 9th pick or better, and a 10% chance of getting in the bottom 10. Our chances of getting 20 or worse are actually better than our chances of getting #1, but them's the breaks.

Hope you like it. I worked for like an hour on this.

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07-13-2005, 05:05 PM
  #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HighlyRegardedRookie
As you can see, there is a 50/50 shot will we get the 9th pick or better, and a 10% chance of getting in the bottom 10. Our chances of getting 20 or worse are actually better than our chances of getting #1, but them's the breaks.

Hope you like it. I worked for like an hour on this.
considering this isnt a deep draft, i'd take that as a bad scenario.

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Old
07-13-2005, 05:24 PM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HighlyRegardedRookie
OK, I did some statistical programming and came up with the following results. If TSN is right about how the lottery will go, the Rangers' percentages of getting a particular pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 6.0535
3 5.895
4 5.671
5 5.516
6 5.439
7 5.3185
8 5.0285
9 4.865
10 4.765
11 4.4885
12 4.1545
13 4.0665
14 3.8075
15 3.617
16 3.5475
17 3.198
18 2.8485
19 2.6625
20 2.461
21 2.2215
22 1.996
23 1.6375
24 1.3265
25 1.1365
26 0.8215
27 0.6025
28 0.3915
29 0.2265
30 0.0825

Our chances of getting a position at or above a certain pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 12.208
3 18.103
4 23.774
5 29.29
6 34.729
7 40.0475
8 45.076
9 49.941
10 54.706
11 59.1945
12 63.349
13 67.4155
14 71.223
15 74.84
16 78.3875
17 81.5855
18 84.434
19 87.0965
20 89.5575
21 91.779
22 93.775
23 95.4125
24 96.739
25 97.8755
26 98.697
27 99.2995
28 99.691
29 99.9175
30 100

As you can see, there is a 50/50 shot will we get the 9th pick or better, and a 10% chance of getting in the bottom 10. Our chances of getting 20 or worse are actually better than our chances of getting #1, but them's the breaks.

Hope you like it. I worked for like an hour on this.
Good job, thanks. The numbers aren't too bad, but they aren't too good either.

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Old
07-13-2005, 05:49 PM
  #4
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HighlyRegardedRookie

That's neat.

If you see your stats in Brooks' column, SUE HIM!!!

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07-13-2005, 07:50 PM
  #5
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Awesome work. Thanks a ton.

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07-13-2005, 09:49 PM
  #6
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Thanks guys. My algorithm isn't perfect. What I basically did was programmed in a bunch of balls, assigned some to the Rangers, ran the draft 200,000 times and compiled the results. To be really accurate, I think you would have to run the draft about a million times or more. Then you'd get better statistics, but what I did gets us the answers with enough precision to let us know the score.

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Old
07-13-2005, 10:14 PM
  #7
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i have a bad feeling the draft will be rigged so the rangers win it

it would be a great marketing ploy in the big picture for the league

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Old
07-13-2005, 10:16 PM
  #8
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Seems like we have a 1/3 chance of getting a top six pick which is really the best we can hope for. Picks 2-6 is where the real prime talent (outside of Crosby) will be available and we would be able to nab one of Johnson, Kopitar, Ryan, Pouliot, or Brule.

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Old
07-14-2005, 07:40 AM
  #9
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the better chances to land a top 10 pick and all of that is what i was more concerned about when it came to how the lottery would be done...good to see that's how it'll be at least. though i'm expecting the rangers to still get some crappy draft position

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Old
07-14-2005, 10:01 AM
  #10
ChrisKreider20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HighlyRegardedRookie
OK, I did some statistical programming and came up with the following results. If TSN is right about how the lottery will go, the Rangers' percentages of getting a particular pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 6.0535
3 5.895
4 5.671
5 5.516
6 5.439
7 5.3185
8 5.0285
9 4.865
10 4.765
11 4.4885
12 4.1545
13 4.0665
14 3.8075
15 3.617
16 3.5475
17 3.198
18 2.8485
19 2.6625
20 2.461
21 2.2215
22 1.996
23 1.6375
24 1.3265
25 1.1365
26 0.8215
27 0.6025
28 0.3915
29 0.2265
30 0.0825

Our chances of getting a position at or above a certain pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 12.208
3 18.103
4 23.774
5 29.29
6 34.729
7 40.0475
8 45.076
9 49.941
10 54.706
11 59.1945
12 63.349
13 67.4155
14 71.223
15 74.84
16 78.3875
17 81.5855
18 84.434
19 87.0965
20 89.5575
21 91.779
22 93.775
23 95.4125
24 96.739
25 97.8755
26 98.697
27 99.2995
28 99.691
29 99.9175
30 100

As you can see, there is a 50/50 shot will we get the 9th pick or better, and a 10% chance of getting in the bottom 10. Our chances of getting 20 or worse are actually better than our chances of getting #1, but them's the breaks.

Hope you like it. I worked for like an hour on this.

impressive.

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Old
07-14-2005, 11:03 AM
  #11
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I did one the old fashion way

placing the 48 slips of paper into a brown paper bag, here are the results:

1. columbus
2. minnesota
3. new jersey
4. philadelphia
5. pittsburgh
6. los angeles
7. edmonton
8. carolina
9. atlanta
10. rangers
11. chicago
12. buffalo
13. ottawa
14. nashville
15. saint louis
16. anahiem
17. phoenix
18. dallas
19. islanders
20. calgary
21. detroit
22. tampa bay
23. vancouver
24. washington
25. san jose
26. boston
27. montreal
28. florida
29. colorado
30. toronto

We would end up with the 10th, 31st, 51st & 57th picks in the 1st 2 rounds.


Last edited by ATLANTARANGER*: 07-14-2005 at 11:09 AM.
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Old
07-14-2005, 11:21 AM
  #12
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Atlanta: I hope you are wrong. A top three choice is what we need. If you look at another thread, I just posted some observations on Brule. In addition, we need to watch how Sather deals with ufa's. I reviewing the espn breakdown, I'm starting to believe that we need to release Holik since there will be some attractive and fairly young ufA'S. The only way I keep Holik is if we draft either Crosby or Brule. Although I love Holik, under the new landscape, I do not believe we can keep him.

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07-14-2005, 11:30 AM
  #13
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The 4 "bad" teams have a 25% chance of getting the top pick.
The 10 "mediocre" teams have a 41.6% chance of getting the top pick.
The 16 "good" teams have a 33.3% chance of getting the top pick.

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Old
07-14-2005, 12:15 PM
  #14
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If there are some young, quality players on the landscape

Quote:
Originally Posted by bathgate
Atlanta: I hope you are wrong. A top three choice is what we need. If you look at another thread, I just posted some observations on Brule. In addition, we need to watch how Sather deals with ufa's. I reviewing the espn breakdown, I'm starting to believe that we need to release Holik since there will be some attractive and fairly young ufA'S. The only way I keep Holik is if we draft either Crosby or Brule. Although I love Holik, under the new landscape, I do not believe we can keep him.
as UFA's you definitely buy out holik, kaspar and nylander. You clear away as much money as possible to outbid anybody. This is where the financial resources of a cablevision comes into play. If however the UFA's are of similar age I would be less inclined to buyout players. I don't like paying for the samething twice. The money could be better spent down the road. I still think there will be teams that would take a Holik or kaspar off our hands at the trading deadline. Both only have this year and next. I especially see that happening if we pay half of the $.

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Old
07-14-2005, 12:25 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLANTARANGER
placing the 48 slips of paper into a brown paper bag, here are the results:

1. columbus
2. minnesota
3. new jersey
4. philadelphia
5. pittsburgh
6. los angeles
7. edmonton
8. carolina
9. atlanta
10. rangers
11. chicago
12. buffalo
13. ottawa
14. nashville
15. saint louis
16. anahiem
17. phoenix
18. dallas
19. islanders
20. calgary
21. detroit
22. tampa bay
23. vancouver
24. washington
25. san jose
26. boston
27. montreal
28. florida
29. colorado
30. toronto

We would end up with the 10th, 31st, 51st & 57th picks in the 1st 2 rounds.
Ugh! Alot of fans on this site have been running their own version of this coming draft. Either pieces of paper, or computer programs. And, I have yet to see the Rangers win 1st overall. In fan fantasy, this team can't catch a break. This draft doesn't look good for us, guys. I ran my own little paper slip lottery, and the Rangers came in seventh.


Last edited by Shadowtron: 07-14-2005 at 12:38 PM.
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Old
07-14-2005, 12:32 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowtron
Ugh! Alot of fans on this site have been running their own version of this coming draft. Either pieces of paper, or computer programs. And, I have yet to see the Rangers win 1st overall. In fan fantasy, the teams can't catch a break. This draft doesn't look good for us, guys. I ran my own little paper slip lottery, and the Rangers came in seventh.
I hear ya Shandowtron, the Rangers came in 20th in mine!!! Lets hope that the fact no one has gotten the Rangers as the 1st pick, that the karma will work for us!!!

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07-14-2005, 12:39 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allrevvedup25
I hear ya Shandowtron, the Rangers came in 20th in mine!!! Lets hope that the fact no one has gotten the Rangers as the 1st pick, that the karma will work for us!!!
I believe that, until I start reading Rangers history books. Then all hope dwindles.

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Old
07-14-2005, 02:37 PM
  #18
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The odds are we will not land him. But the odds are we will

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowtron
Ugh! Alot of fans on this site have been running their own version of this coming draft. Either pieces of paper, or computer programs. And, I have yet to see the Rangers win 1st overall. In fan fantasy, this team can't catch a break. This draft doesn't look good for us, guys. I ran my own little paper slip lottery, and the Rangers came in seventh.
also end up in the top 9 or 10. Crosby in NY, playing for the Rangers would immediately jump start the league. It would generate a ton of interest in the media. It might even compel ESPN, or someone else to pony up to the table. But if Crosby ends up in Columbus, Buffalo or even a Pittsburgh, while great for the team that gets him, you can forget about it having any real impact. In typical NHL tradition, they would have passed up another golden opportunity like they did in 94.

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Old
07-14-2005, 04:27 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale
i have a bad feeling the draft will be rigged so the rangers win it

it would be a great marketing ploy in the big picture for the league
It's an interesting thought and I can't say that I haven't had it myself. I have a weird feeling about next thursday's lottery draft. I also read on TSN that they are still undecided as to how they will make the draw, meaning either behind closed doors (cough*cough**rigged**cough*cough) or infront of the media.

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07-14-2005, 05:42 PM
  #20
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Nice work. Good info.

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Old
07-16-2005, 02:59 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HighlyRegardedRookie
OK, I did some statistical programming and came up with the following results. If TSN is right about how the lottery will go, the Rangers' percentages of getting a particular pick are as follows:

1 6.1545
2 6.0535
3 5.895
Excellent work. Great initiative.

Of course, the Blueshirts actually have a 3 in 48 chance of securing top pick and that works out to 6.25% percisely. But you simply might not have run enough iterations to center upon that figure, or there may be innate biases in the random function your programming language. I.e., the difference between your figure and the true probability (of 6.25%) is not necessarily the result of a programming error.

I decided to see if I could replicate your numbers doing the same type of modelling. I came up with these figures which pretty much support those you got:

At 100.000 iterations, I got 6.232%

At 1 million, it approaches 6.247%

It wasn't until I ran off 10 million iterations that I got to the real value of 6.25%


1 6.250% 6.250%
2 6.097% 12.346%
3 5.936% 18.283%
4 5.783% 24.065%
5 5.587% 29.652%
6 5.434% 35.087%
7 5.246% 40.332%
8 5.098% 45.431%
9 4.880% 50.310%
10 4.674% 54.984%
11 4.483% 59.467%
12 4.271% 63.738%
13 4.070% 67.808%
14 3.860% 71.668%
15 3.631% 75.300%
16 3.364% 78.664%
17 3.100% 81.764%
18 2.885% 84.649%
19 2.652% 87.301%
20 2.425% 89.726%
21 2.146% 91.871%
22 1.881% 93.752%
23 1.626% 95.378%
24 1.369% 96.747%
25 1.105% 97.852%
26 0.840% 98.692%
27 0.607% 99.300%
28 0.399% 99.698%
29 0.222% 99.921%
30 0.079% 100.000%


Anyone who wishes to view the programming can download it here:

http://hockeyrodent.com/ball2005.txt

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Old
07-16-2005, 09:23 AM
  #22
klingsor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rodent
Excellent work. Great initiative.

Of course, the Blueshirts actually have a 3 in 48 chance of securing top pick and that works out to 6.25% percisely. But you simply might not have run enough iterations to center upon that figure, or there may be innate biases in the random function your programming language. I.e., the difference between your figure and the true probability (of 6.25%) is not necessarily the result of a programming error.

I decided to see if I could replicate your numbers doing the same type of modelling. I came up with these figures which pretty much support those you got:

At 100.000 iterations, I got 6.232%

At 1 million, it approaches 6.247%

It wasn't until I ran off 10 million iterations that I got to the real value of 6.25%


1 6.250% 6.250%
2 6.097% 12.346%
3 5.936% 18.283%
4 5.783% 24.065%
5 5.587% 29.652%
6 5.434% 35.087%
7 5.246% 40.332%
8 5.098% 45.431%
9 4.880% 50.310%
10 4.674% 54.984%
11 4.483% 59.467%
12 4.271% 63.738%
13 4.070% 67.808%
14 3.860% 71.668%
15 3.631% 75.300%
16 3.364% 78.664%
17 3.100% 81.764%
18 2.885% 84.649%
19 2.652% 87.301%
20 2.425% 89.726%
21 2.146% 91.871%
22 1.881% 93.752%
23 1.626% 95.378%
24 1.369% 96.747%
25 1.105% 97.852%
26 0.840% 98.692%
27 0.607% 99.300%
28 0.399% 99.698%
29 0.222% 99.921%
30 0.079% 100.000%


Anyone who wishes to view the programming can download it here:

http://hockeyrodent.com/ball2005.txt

Off the top of my head, does that translate to odds of approximately 1260 to 1 that we get the 30th pick?

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07-16-2005, 09:37 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rodent
But you simply might not have run enough iterations to center upon that figure, or there may be innate biases in the random function your programming language.
Good job to you too, btw, and yes, the problem was simply that I didn't run enough iterations. I ran 200,000. When I tried to run the simulation with 1 million iterations, the computer crashed. (Stupid law school computer lab!) I knew I had the basic idea and the general trends.

It wasn't perfect, but it let me know the big news, which was that we have a 50% chance of getting in the top 9, and a 90% chance of getting in the top 20. The news, IMO, is not that good. Some people, when the lottery was announced, got excited and said things like, "We're virtually guaranteed of a top 10 pick." As we know now, that's not true. Frankly, we should be pleased with a top 5 pick, as chances are we won't get it.

BTW, some guy ran one with 1 billion iterations on another board. Overkill!

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07-16-2005, 01:56 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HighlyRegardedRookie
It wasn't perfect, but it let me know the big news, which was that we have a 50% chance of getting in the top 9, and a 90% chance of getting in the top 20.
Which is precisely the point of doing the simulation. I.e., my "nitpick" didn't change the essential message of your post nor the conclusion. And "yes", the simulation also warns us that New York still has a 1-in-1266 chance of picking 30th!!!!!!

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