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The Cam Ward RAGE POST. Rage Against the Machine

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Old
12-14-2013, 02:50 PM
  #351
Obi Wan LaRosie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wallym View Post
Overall:
Cam Ward: 205-152-50
Backups: 55-76-17

It's not hard to pinpoint where things fall apart.
So, essentially, our star 6.3 mil goaltender is 3 games over .500. Great to know. Drives me nuts when people say we are "over .500" when we are 13-12-6. That is NOT over .500

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12-14-2013, 02:50 PM
  #352
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Originally Posted by FlyingSquirrels View Post
He was screened, no?
Watch it again. Not so much screened as Backlund flashed in front of him then was out of the shooting lane by the time the shot came, but that caused Peters to lose focus (by his own admission).

Quote:
Peters said when Mikael Backlund crossed in front of him, he lost track of the puck.

"Just a mental lapse on my part. He went right through the line of the puck. I've got to do a better job of fighting to find it earlier, especially with that much time left," Peters said.
http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/12/...#storylink=cpy

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12-14-2013, 03:48 PM
  #353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moosetache View Post
So, essentially, our star 6.3 mil goaltender is 3 games over .500. Great to know. Drives me nuts when people say we are "over .500" when we are 13-12-6. That is NOT over .500
probably half of that 50 is shootout losses haha..

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12-14-2013, 04:43 PM
  #354
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moosetache View Post
So, essentially, our star 6.3 mil goaltender is 3 games over .500. Great to know. Drives me nuts when people say we are "over .500" when we are 13-12-6. That is NOT over .500
Hockey standings aren't based on the winning% that you prefer, so talking about it that way makes no sense.

10-10 = 7-7-6 = 0-0-20

The only numbers that matter are Regulation Wins vs. Regulation losses.

Saying Cam Ward is 53 games over .500 in 407 games tell you exactly how many points he accumulated (assuming basic algebra skills).

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12-15-2013, 08:22 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by wallym View Post
Geehad, do you think the vast difference in offensive output is a coincidence?
Well, I would think that if there was a systemic difference in the way the team plays in front of the two goaltenders, that we'd see consistency in the offensive output for each goaltender. It's hard to know when to start looking at Ward's numbers (some want to discount portions of his season), but it seems that no matter where you start/end, you'll find a bipolar offense...strictly by goals scored (I don't have time to take it to a deeper level. ). That vacillation is a good counterpoint to the assertion that the team plays differently in front of either goaltender.

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Originally Posted by wallym View Post
The same brand of hockey doesn't appear to be being played on the ice when Cam and Justin are in net. Maybe it's the defense playing better or worse. Maybe it's the opposition. Maybe it's a different strategy. Maybe it's just dumb luck. But despite the same personnel, the product on the ice has been very different, and seems to coincide with who's in net.
Even if the goaltender factors in on the offense somehow, it couldn't contribute more than than 5% of the total offensive picture for a given game. All of those other factors you named (and others, like personnel changing) are so much larger contributing factors than anything the goaltenders are/aren't doing that it makes the proposal seem like it is going to desperate lengths in order to defend Ward's honor.

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Old
12-15-2013, 08:32 PM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wallym View Post
Hockey standings aren't based on the winning% that you prefer, so talking about it that way makes no sense.

10-10 = 7-7-6 = 0-0-20

The only numbers that matter are Regulation Wins vs. Regulation losses.

Saying Cam Ward is 53 games over .500 in 407 games tell you exactly how many points he accumulated (assuming basic algebra skills).
I like to consider % of available points won instead of W-L %age that includes ties.

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12-15-2013, 09:04 PM
  #357
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I guess some people see what they want to see. I really have no idea how someone can watch the games and not notice the difference in how the team plays in front of both goaltenders.

Hell, they've done the same thing in the past, though usually it's the opposite. They usually play better in front of Ward and disastrous against the backup.

Now, the team is collapsing in front of Peters, mostly to collect his rebounds and block shots. It's working for him. But as they showed in the Oilers game, they're being much more lax in front of Ward. They let more shots from the slot in that game than pretty much any game Peters has played this year.

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12-15-2013, 09:23 PM
  #358
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Which begs the question, why in the hell doesn't the team play a tighter defensive game in front of Ward? Yes, they'll be sacrificing some offense, but the offense is woefully inconsistent anyway, so at the very least, they can limit scoring chances against and not leave Ward to fend for himself.

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12-15-2013, 09:43 PM
  #359
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Because he's been able to handle that lax defensive play in the past with little difficulty. It stems from the confidence that Ward will "bail them out" if they **** up. But Ward hasn't looked right this year (likely based off the two major injuries he's coming off of), so that confidence is misplaced.

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12-15-2013, 09:47 PM
  #360
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Yeah, I'm hoping the team can see that Ward is struggling and can't bail out bad defensive play like we're all used to.

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12-16-2013, 08:27 AM
  #361
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...or....there is difference at all.

I wonder what that guy Mobius would have to say about this conundrum....

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Old
12-16-2013, 09:25 AM
  #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geehaad View Post
Even if the goaltender factors in on the offense somehow, it couldn't contribute more than than 5% of the total offensive picture for a given game. All of those other factors you named (and others, like personnel changing) are so much larger contributing factors than anything the goaltenders are/aren't doing that it makes the proposal seem like it is going to desperate lengths in order to defend Ward's honor.
If you don't think goaltending has any affect on offense (or, as you say, <5%), you might not quite understand how the game works. Ask Brodeur, Turco or Hextall what they think about their affect on offense.

It is patently obvious the hockey played in front of Peters is different than it is played in front of Ward. It is done intentionally based on weakness/strengths of each goalie. You won't see 5 guys in the slot trying to clear pucks and block shots with Ward in net like you do with Peters. That style leads to less fast breaks and odd man rushes, which in turn leads to less goal scoring.

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12-16-2013, 09:55 AM
  #363
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Originally Posted by RodTheBawd View Post
If you don't think goaltending has any affect on offense (or, as you say, <5%), you might not quite understand how the game works. Ask Brodeur, Turco or Hextall what they think about their affect on offense.

It is patently obvious the hockey played in front of Peters is different than it is played in front of Ward. It is done intentionally based on weakness/strengths of each goalie. You won't see 5 guys in the slot trying to clear pucks and block shots with Ward in net like you do with Peters. That style leads to less fast breaks and odd man rushes, which in turn leads to less goal scoring.
So let's say for the sake of argument that what you say is true. The right thing to do is to check out relative Corsi in games Ward has started versus games that Peters has started, to validate your hypothesis -- but rather than do that, because I'm far too lazy, let's just cede the point.

The team, as currently constructed, is *still* more effective in front of Peters, even if we assume lower offensive production. Why? Because Peters's weaknesses are 100% predictable and mitigatable, and Ward's weaknesses are not. Peters gives up rebounds, and Ward (lately) gives up softies. (Also of note: it's possible that Peters has been giving up fewer rebounds over time, but I don't have stats to validate that.)

Teams of all kinds -- sports, business -- build success around consistent performance. Know what you're good at and maximize opportunities around that. Know what you're less good at and minimize risks around that.

When Ward can demonstrate that he is no longer giving up soft goals, he can return to his rightful position as #1 goaltender, and maybe the Canes can loosen up their style of play a little bit. Until then, it makes sense to ride the guy who has a predictable style of play, and who has the best save percentage in the NHL over the last couple of weeks.

--hank

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12-16-2013, 09:59 AM
  #364
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Originally Posted by GoCanes2013 View Post
I like to consider % of available points won instead of W-L %age that includes ties.
I think the right way to do this is to determine what the "average points per NHL game" are now.

Before the loser point, the sum of points earned in every game was 2. Therefore, the average was 1 point per team per game, by definition.

Now, in the era of the loser point, this is no longer a constant. Across the entire NHL, it's probably closer to 1.2 points per team per game. And the Canes currently fall below that standard.

--hank

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12-16-2013, 10:02 AM
  #365
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Originally Posted by HankClerval View Post
So let's say for the sake of argument that what you say is true. The right thing to do is to check out relative Corsi in games Ward has started versus games that Peters has started, to validate your hypothesis -- but rather than do that, because I'm far too lazy, let's just cede the point.

The team, as currently constructed, is *still* more effective in front of Peters, even if we assume lower offensive production. Why? Because Peters's weaknesses are 100% predictable and mitigatable, and Ward's weaknesses are not. Peters gives up rebounds, and Ward (lately) gives up softies. (Also of note: it's possible that Peters has been giving up fewer rebounds over time, but I don't have stats to validate that.)

Teams of all kinds -- sports, business -- build success around consistent performance. Know what you're good at and maximize opportunities around that. Know what you're less good at and minimize risks around that.

When Ward can demonstrate that he is no longer giving up soft goals, he can return to his rightful position as #1 goaltender, and maybe the Canes can loosen up their style of play a little bit. Until then, it makes sense to ride the guy who has a predictable style of play, and who has the best save percentage in the NHL over the last couple of weeks.

--hank
At what point in my post did I make any sort of argument over who should be playing over the other? The guy is saying goaltending has virtually no affect on offense and that the team plays the same regardless. I pointed out he's wrong, not that Ward should be playing over Peters. As of now, Peters has earned his spot and should be ridden until he inevitably comes down to earth.

I also like the "The right thing to do is to check out relative Corsi..." comment. Or you could, you know, watch them play?

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12-16-2013, 10:11 AM
  #366
HankClerval
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RodTheBawd View Post
I also like the "The right thing to do is to check out relative Corsi..." comment. Or you could, you know, watch them play?
Or, hey, you could do both!

Our eyes can lie to us. Stats can also lie to us. Causality is a tricky thing, and when you're trying to determine it, more data is better than less, right?

--hank

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12-16-2013, 10:29 AM
  #367
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Well, one thing is certain: bias couldn't possibly be playing any part of the evaluation that I'm completely wrong about this.

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12-16-2013, 10:52 AM
  #368
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BREAKING: the secret to justin peters newfound success is... SCIENCE!!!!

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12-16-2013, 10:56 AM
  #369
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BREAKING: the secret to justin peters newfound success is... SCIENCE!!!!

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12-16-2013, 11:11 AM
  #370
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Originally Posted by geehaad View Post
Well, one thing is certain: bias couldn't possibly be playing any part of the evaluation that I'm completely wrong about this.
How can you make such a claim? Pretty sure you might not quite understand how the game works.

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12-16-2013, 11:27 AM
  #371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geehaad View Post
Well, one thing is certain: bias couldn't possibly be playing any part of the evaluation that I'm completely wrong about this.
Maybe you (and some others here) could take some value out of this article: http://theconversation.com/no-youre-...r-opinion-9978

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12-16-2013, 11:48 AM
  #372
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Originally Posted by RodTheBawd View Post
Maybe you (and some others here) could take some value out of this article: http://theconversation.com/no-youre-...r-opinion-9978
LOL.

So what are you arguing, exactly?

--hank

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12-16-2013, 11:51 AM
  #373
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moosetache View Post
So, essentially, our star 6.3 mil goaltender is 3 games over .500. Great to know. Drives me nuts when people say we are "over .500" when we are 13-12-6. That is NOT over .500
Yes it is unless 32 points out of a possible 62 points isn't over 50% ???

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12-16-2013, 11:54 AM
  #374
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Yes it is unless 32 points out of a possible 62 points isn't over 50% ???
It's above 50%, but with the introduction of the loser point, 50% of possible points is now lower than average.

--hank

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12-16-2013, 11:57 AM
  #375
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It's above 50%, but with the introduction of the loser point, 50% of possible points is now lower than average.

--hank
There's a difference between percentage and percentiles.

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