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"Because it's never too early" - 2014 NHL Draft discussion

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Old
11-19-2013, 01:34 PM
  #101
Flair Hay
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Ehlers scouting report sounds a lot like a Little/Frolik type player from what you described. Not big, but fast and gritty with good stick handling skills, etc.

If there's any silver lining to our division's top four teams being so damn far ahead...we should be able to pawn off a veteran or two (Gooch, A defenseman?) for an extra pick or two on draft day. That's neither here nor there, just me thinking out loud.

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11-19-2013, 04:24 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by bhay1987 View Post
Ehlers scouting report sounds a lot like a Little/Frolik type player from what you described. Not big, but fast and gritty with good stick handling skills, etc.

If there's any silver lining to our division's top four teams being so damn far ahead...we should be able to pawn off a veteran or two (Gooch, A defenseman?) for an extra pick or two on draft day. That's neither here nor there, just me thinking out loud.
I believe the Jets felt that they could recoup the second they spent on Seto at the trade deadline if they were not really in the playoff race and felt they couldn't or wouldn't resign him .

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12-01-2013, 09:56 AM
  #103
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There is an Ehlers vid up.


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12-01-2013, 10:53 AM
  #104
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Am I the only guy that is not blown away by Sam Reinhart or Ekblad as #1 overall type picks? They are both really good players but this is not the year to grab the franchise saviour type if you are bottoming out.

Too early to tell but to me they are both going to be very good NHL players but I don't love either of their ceilings offensively.

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12-01-2013, 05:18 PM
  #105
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Am I the only guy that is not blown away by Sam Reinhart or Ekblad as #1 overall type picks? They are both really good players but this is not the year to grab the franchise saviour type if you are bottoming out.

Too early to tell but to me they are both going to be very good NHL players but I don't love either of their ceilings offensively.
I could see an offensive limit to those two...but some people said that about Sean Monahan too....I think the 2013 draft was so good and so deep the 2014 draft has just too tough of an act to follow..

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12-01-2013, 05:48 PM
  #106
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First time poster here, Jordan Thomson (a good ol' Manitoba boy) was rated as a top ten North American defenseman for this draft but haven't heard much regarding him lately. Any of you guys have a draft projection for him? All is appreciated!

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12-01-2013, 06:22 PM
  #107
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Am I the only guy that is not blown away by Sam Reinhart or Ekblad as #1 overall type picks? They are both really good players but this is not the year to grab the franchise saviour type if you are bottoming out.

Too early to tell but to me they are both going to be very good NHL players but I don't love either of their ceilings offensively.
No, you're right and many are viewing this draft similarly.

The nice thing is that there's some decent depth to this years draft, so that a team like ours can still end up grabbing a very decent prospect even if we're selecting in the 10-14 range.

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12-01-2013, 06:42 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Boomski72 View Post
First time poster here, Jordan Thomson (a good ol' Manitoba boy) was rated as a top ten North American defenseman for this draft but haven't heard much regarding him lately. Any of you guys have a draft projection for him? All is appreciated!
Jordan has left the blazers temporarily for personal reasons

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12-03-2013, 05:00 AM
  #109
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A guy who has been really impressing me lately is Jared McCann. It's possible he could be around when we're picking.

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12-03-2013, 08:08 AM
  #110
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A guy who has been really impressing me lately is Jared McCann. It's possible he could be around when we're picking.
Love to hear more. He's a good sized centre right?

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12-03-2013, 09:48 AM
  #111
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Love to hear more. He's a good sized centre right?
Decently sized - Listed at 6'1" and 175lbs. Definitely has some physical maturing to do.

He just has one of the more complete games that I've seen from a prospect his age. Really good stick work to break up passes that sometimes goes unnoticed (kind of reminds me of Bryan Little in that regard) and has one hell of a mean wrister. He actually reminds me a lot of Little in quite a few ways, he's got a lot of tools, but I'd say his hockey sense is easily the best and he uses it both offensively and defensively. He just understands the game better than anyone else on the ice and you can see him picking out plays before others do.

He just doesn't make a ton of flashy plays (except some absolute beauty goals and passes now and then) but when you put him under the microscope he does everything the right way. He creates turnovers, funnels plays, and backchecks hard defensively while also being a strong creative force offensively (along with that mean wrister). You just won't see him winning the puck by thundering someone into the boards.

Any prospect that combines Hockey IQ with effort like McCann does is always a big favourite in my books. I know Garret would probably love him as he's one of the best possession players available in the draft IMO.

He's definitely flying waaaay under the radar right now.

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12-03-2013, 09:54 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
No, you're right and many are viewing this draft similarly.

The nice thing is that there's some decent depth to this years draft, so that a team like ours can still end up grabbing a very decent prospect even if we're selecting in the 10-14 range.
Is this true?


It seems every year that there isn't a clear cut "top" end to the draft people say something similar to the above.

I'm more likely to think it's not anymore depth, just a lack of separation in talent (ie: most drafts have the same amount of players of this caliber, just the "good" ones have a decent chunk of a higher caliber ahead of them, creating separation and an illusion of "drop off")

I don't know, maybe it's true and there's a lot more "good" prospects, but keep in mind, for it to be "good depth" those types of prospect pretty much have to extend into the second.

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12-03-2013, 09:57 AM
  #113
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Is this true?


It seems every year that there isn't a clear cut "top" end to the draft people say something similar to the above.

I'm more likely to think it's not anymore depth, just a lack of separation in talent (ie: most drafts have the same amount of players of this caliber, just the "good" ones have a decent chunk of a higher caliber ahead of them, creating separation and an illusion of "drop off")

I don't know, maybe it's true and there's a lot more "good" prospects, but keep in mind, for it to be "good depth" those types of prospect pretty much have to extend into the second.
I just mean "good depth" as in where we're likely picking there will be a good prospect available.

This year has nowhere near the same depth as last year. I actually see a fairly big dropoff at around the 20-25 mark of the first round in player talent.

Plus this year's top end of Ekblad, Reinhart, and Nylander isn't as good as most other years. They've all shown some holes in their games that make them not quite a franchise player prospect. Although from 1 to around 20-25 there's a lot of incredibly solid prospects to choose from.

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12-03-2013, 10:07 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
I just mean "good depth" as in where we're likely picking there will be a good prospect available.

This year has nowhere near the same depth as last year. I actually see a fairly big dropoff at around the 20-25 mark of the first round in player talent.

Plus this year's top end of Ekblad, Reinhart, and Nylander isn't as good as most other years. They've all shown some holes in their games that make them not quite a franchise player prospect. Although from 1 to around 20-25 there's a lot of incredibly solid prospects to choose from.
it's probably semantics but to me, that's not good depth. that's expected. below average even.


it's a special kind of draft to not have good prospects available at the 15 mark- that's my point.

Most drafts are still giving you a 1/3 shot of hitting a top 6'er in the last 10 picks


essentially, don't guss it up- this is possibly not a strong draft. and if theirs that much fall off after the top 15, it's definitely a draft to be trying to trade up in (if we were to be selling players at the deadline for more picks)

EDIT: my point is, as opposed to last year or the year before even, is there actually "more" solid prospects in the 1-25 section? or the same amount? that's all i'm looking for. keep in mind the "quality" of players that were actually picked in those spots the last couple years. I just think people have a tendancey to use a sliding scale. (since there isn' 10 players vastly superior to the remaining 15, we say its "good depth" when its the exact same as a previous year, just lacking high end).

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12-03-2013, 10:14 AM
  #115
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it's probably semantics but to me, that's not good depth. that's expected. below average even.


it's a special kind of draft to not have good prospects available at the 15 mark- that's my point.

Most drafts are still giving you a 1/3 shot of hitting a top 6'er in the last 10 picks


essentially, don't guss it up- this is possibly not a strong draft. and if theirs that much fall off after the top 15, it's definitely a draft to be trying to trade up in (if we were to be selling players at the deadline for more picks)
Well that's my point. I'd give the guys rated 10-20 a better than 1/3 chance of making it, to me that seems pretty good. Plus I wouldn't call this a good draft to trade up in at all. The top 5 guys aren't really all that glamorous (even with everyone's favourite Draisaitl) as far as prospects go and you'd likely overpay based on the "top 5" status moreso than the prospects actual ability. While the prospects ranked 6-20 are all quite similar so trading up just doesn't seem worth it.

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EDIT: my point is, as opposed to last year or the year before even, is there actually "more" solid prospects in the 1-25 section? or the same amount? that's all i'm looking for. keep in mind the "quality" of players that were actually picked in those spots the last couple years. I just think people have a tendancey to use a sliding scale. (since there isn' 10 players vastly superior to the remaining 15, we say its "good depth" when its the exact same as a previous year, just lacking high end).
Compared to last year I'd say absolutely not. Even though it's early I'd say last year was one of the best draft years in the last decade or more though.

Edit: Plus it's super early and most of my looks at prospects outside of the OHL and WHL have been pretty brief. I've also had to ask for opinions on some Swedish players and there's supposedly quite a few good ones available this year. That being said it's still really early, but I've really liked what I've seen from a large group of guys this early on compared to previous years (last year notwithstanding).


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12-03-2013, 10:24 AM
  #116
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Well that's my point. I'd give the guys rated 10-20 a better than 1/3 chance of making it, to me that seems pretty good. Plus I wouldn't call this a good draft to trade up in at all. The top 5 guys aren't really all that glamorous (even with everyone's favourite Draisaitl) as far as prospects go and you'd likely overpay based on the "top 5" status moreso than the prospects actual ability. While the prospects ranked 6-20 are all quite similar so trading up just doesn't seem worth it.
sorry, we've crossed wires.

When i looked into this these were the average numbers of gettinga "quality" player:

from 10-15 its usually about 42%
from 15 - 20 its 30%
from 20 - 25 its 36

that's my point. what youv'e stated isn't "good", it's average. It's average without the possibility of a "high end". Thus a less then average draft (as a whole)

essentiallym, not having the opportunity to get a good player in the top 20 picks is terrible. Like, 1999 terrible.

Regarding trading up: if were trading players there going to be for picks 20+

if the drop off is at the normal levels then you'd want to trade up if your at pick 24 or later. If this is a weaker draft, which i suspect it is (i feel a the lack of "high end talent" isn't made up for by "more" talent) that threshold is probably sooner.

EDIT: as per your edit above that makes more sense. so last year not with standing you feel there are more "good" players (lets say relative to the three drafts prior)? I just feel people said the same thing about previous drafts that lacked high end talent. too convenient essentially that every time there's a lack of high end talent there's "more depth". Just seems like narrative. If you legitimately feel there is more depth then that's a good thing.

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12-03-2013, 10:36 AM
  #117
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sorry, we've crossed wires.

When i looked into this these were the average numbers of gettinga "quality" player:

from 10-15 its usually about 42%
from 15 - 20 its 30%
from 20 - 25 its 36

that's my point. what youv'e stated isn't "good", it's average. It's average without the possibility of a "high end". Thus a less then average draft (as a whole)

essentiallym, not having the opportunity to get a good player in the top 20 picks is terrible. Like, 1999 terrible.

Regarding trading up: if were trading players there going to be for picks 20+

if the drop off is at the normal levels then you'd want to trade up if your at pick 24 or later. If this is a weaker draft, which i suspect it is (i feel a the lack of "high end talent" isn't made up for by "more" talent) that threshold is probably sooner.

EDIT: as per your edit above that makes more sense. so last year not with standing you feel there are more "good" players (lets say relative to the three drafts prior)? I just feel people said the same thing about previous drafts that lacked high end talent. too convenient essentially that every time there's a lack of high end talent there's "more depth". Just seems like narrative. If you legitimately feel there is more depth then that's a good thing.
Yes, not counting last year I'm really liking this year's top 20 compared to lets say the last 3. Plus I'm not saying there's no high end. This year has a very good top 5 and again other than last year's I'd probably take this top 5 over the past 3. All I'm saying is there's no one clear franchise type player topping off this year like there is in some others.

I understand what you're saying though in that we often hear the same type of thing year to year. I often hear, "this year isn't very good, but next year will be great!"

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12-03-2013, 11:37 AM
  #118
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I would say this draft is very underwhelming after the top 5 guys or so. I think by the end of the year you will see Reinhart,Ekblad,Dal Colle,Bennett,Nylander and maybe Perlini seperate themselves from the pack. After that there is a huge swath of guys that will probably not be high impact type players.

If the Jets do draft 15 lets say. They really could use some goal scoring talent but I am not sure if there is guy there that excites me that way. Maybe Bleackley from Red Deer and you got 4 euros that play in the CHL that might be in the mix around then with Draisaitl,Elhers,Barbeshev and Scherbak. But the idea that they draft a euro that high even with them playing in the CHL doesn't seem a possibility to me.

I know they like there D men who can skate,move the puck and play with a physical edge. Both Trouba and Morrissey fit that bill. I think it is more likely they take one of the D like Fleury,Martin,McKeowen or Jacobs in that spot.

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12-03-2013, 11:47 AM
  #119
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As per usual I have been watching the forward prospects a lot closer than the defenders. Forwards are more fun for me and I always struggle to figure out where the defenders will go so I may be off base a little when it comes to the rankings, but personally I see the drop off being closer to 10ish.

After that there is the usual mix of players that are harder to read, but I do agree that there should be an interesting piece or two on the board at 15.

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12-03-2013, 12:28 PM
  #120
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I would say this draft is very underwhelming after the top 5 guys or so. I think by the end of the year you will see Reinhart,Ekblad,Dal Colle,Bennett,Nylander and maybe Perlini seperate themselves from the pack. After that there is a huge swath of guys that will probably not be high impact type players.

If the Jets do draft 15 lets say. They really could use some goal scoring talent but I am not sure if there is guy there that excites me that way. Maybe Bleackley from Red Deer and you got 4 euros that play in the CHL that might be in the mix around then with Draisaitl,Elhers,Barbeshev and Scherbak. But the idea that they draft a euro that high even with them playing in the CHL doesn't seem a possibility to me.

I know they like there D men who can skate,move the puck and play with a physical edge. Both Trouba and Morrissey fit that bill. I think it is more likely they take one of the D like Fleury,Martin,McKeowen or Jacobs in that spot.
I agree with you about the top end. The 6 you mentioned are very likely to go early.

After them I see Nick Ritchie, Anton Karlsson, Leon Draisaitl, Kaspari Kapanen, Haydn Fleury as the next tier if you will - and personally I might jumble a few of them into that early group.

After that I am much less comfortable predicting who goes where and as usual, lots could change between now and the draft.

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12-03-2013, 02:54 PM
  #121
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If this year's draft is as underwhelming as folks are making it out to be, I'd like to see Chevy try to pick up currency for the 2015 (McDavid) draft. It's a little more common in the NFL, for example, to trade for picks in a draft a year or two from now. Often, delaying by one year increases the round of the pick by one, so that a 2014 2nd would be worth a 2015 1st.

If he could someohow parlay Ollie and Gooch into 2015 1st rounders, he might be able to put together the kind of package that could attact some interest for the #1 overall and get a once in a generation player (two 1st rounders, a prospect, and Kane, for example).

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12-03-2013, 03:06 PM
  #122
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If this year's draft is as underwhelming as folks are making it out to be, I'd like to see Chevy try to pick up currency for the 2015 (McDavid) draft. It's a little more common in the NFL, for example, to trade for picks in a draft a year or two from now. Often, delaying by one year increases the round of the pick by one, so that a 2014 2nd would be worth a 2015 1st.

If he could someohow parlay Ollie and Gooch into 2015 1st rounders, he might be able to put together the kind of package that could attact some interest for the #1 overall and get a once in a generation player (two 1st rounders, a prospect, and Kane, for example).
Understand the desire but that isn't happening.

McDavid or the pick won't be traded imo and IF it was it would be a huge package going that way . Winnipeg may want extra picks but it won't be with the idea it is for McDavid.

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12-05-2013, 10:31 AM
  #123
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A guy who has been really impressing me lately is Jared McCann. It's possible he could be around when we're picking.
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Decently sized - Listed at 6'1" and 175lbs. Definitely has some physical maturing to do.

He just has one of the more complete games that I've seen from a prospect his age. Really good stick work to break up passes that sometimes goes unnoticed (kind of reminds me of Bryan Little in that regard) and has one hell of a mean wrister. He actually reminds me a lot of Little in quite a few ways, he's got a lot of tools, but I'd say his hockey sense is easily the best and he uses it both offensively and defensively. He just understands the game better than anyone else on the ice and you can see him picking out plays before others do.

He just doesn't make a ton of flashy plays (except some absolute beauty goals and passes now and then) but when you put him under the microscope he does everything the right way. He creates turnovers, funnels plays, and backchecks hard defensively while also being a strong creative force offensively (along with that mean wrister). You just won't see him winning the puck by thundering someone into the boards.

Any prospect that combines Hockey IQ with effort like McCann does is always a big favourite in my books. I know Garret would probably love him as he's one of the best possession players available in the draft IMO.

He's definitely flying waaaay under the radar right now.
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That was nice. And against Zadorv with Stolarz in net.

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12-05-2013, 05:01 PM
  #124
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For Sweech:



That was nice. And against Zadorv with Stolarz in net.
He has a habit of scoring absolutely beautiful goals.

Him and Tolchinsky can be a lot of fun to watch. Tolchinsky is a very undersized forward. I think he might actually be smaller than Petan and like Petan he's extremely skilled offensively. He was signed by Carolina similar to how we signed Blomqvist.


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12-05-2013, 05:06 PM
  #125
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That was nice. And against Zadorv with Stolarz in net.
A sneak peak at Zadorov: NHL Pylon.

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