HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > By The Numbers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
By The Numbers Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

How can David Clarkson earn his contract?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
01-03-2014, 03:46 PM
  #1
Doctor No
Retired
 
Doctor No's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,395
vCash: 500
How can David Clarkson earn his contract?

I'm a big fan of Rob Vollman's work (although he won't respond to my e-mails ). This article from December 27th explores David Clarkson's contract:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...to-maple-leafs

It looks at what contracts of that level typically produce, and the value of Clarkson's production. Interesting read.

Doctor No is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 04:05 PM
  #2
I Hate Chris Butler
Backlund Fan Club
 
I Hate Chris Butler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Saskatchewan
Country: Canada
Posts: 15,274
vCash: 50
Clarkson needs more than his "unique skill set" Leafs fans are so fond of mentioning. Without reading the article and just chiming in with a quick opinion, I'll say 25-25-50 consistently all while getting hits and shots blocked up. Doesn't necessarily need to fight but needs to be a presence on the ice.

I Hate Chris Butler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 04:07 PM
  #3
93LEAFS
Registered User
 
93LEAFS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 268
vCash: 500
Be clutch one year and lead us to a cup. That is the only way his intangibles can justify signing a 30 to 45 point guy.

93LEAFS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 04:59 PM
  #4
BigZ65
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,804
vCash: 350
Pee in a magical fountain at the same time as a better hockey player.

BigZ65 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 05:31 PM
  #5
BraveCanadian
Registered User
 
BraveCanadian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,802
vCash: 500
He can't.

Players - and especially physical ones - don't tend to get better offensively in their 30s. And he isn't good enough defensively to make up for the gap.

BraveCanadian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 06:02 PM
  #6
TheDevilMadeMe
Global Moderator
 
TheDevilMadeMe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Country: United States
Posts: 39,240
vCash: 500
The article keeps saying Clarkson was evolving into a "two-way" forward in NJ. That is false.

Quote:
It may have seemed excessive for a checking line player, but Clarkson had recently been evolving into a durable, two-way, top-six power forward, alongside Patrik Elias and Travis Zajac. He even bagged 30 goals in 2011-12.
Durable power forward, sure. Two-way? Nope. Not every player who plays in NJ deserves the "two-way" label.

Quote:
To be worth $5.25 million per season, Clarkson would need to score about 24 goals and 56 points. He'd need to score those points while also killing penalties, shutting down top opponents and playing near the Selke level.
Ouch.

Can't imagine Clarkson every playing on the PK with his poor hockey sense and the number of times he falls over (Edit: article then notes he averaged 1 second of PK time in 2011-12 and 0 seconds in the other 4 of the last 5 seasons. Sounds about right.

Quote:
Clarkson has also developed into a more responsible possession-oriented player these past two seasons. Despite all those starts in the defensive zone, Clarkson has ranked in the top three of his team's forwards in attempted shot differential (Corsi). That could be of particular value to a notoriously weak possession team like Toronto.
Maybe I'm wrong, but someone like Clarkson who shoots from any angle just seems like the kind of player who would be overrated by Corsi.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 01-03-2014 at 06:07 PM.
TheDevilMadeMe is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 06:13 PM
  #7
Doctor No
Retired
 
Doctor No's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,395
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Maybe I'm wrong, but someone like Clarkson who shoots from any angle just seems like the kind of player who would be overrated by Corsi.
I haven't watched Clarkson enough to comment specifically on how often he shoots, but I agree with your conclusion - if you had a player who was prone to taking additional shots (at the expense of quality shots), I'd expect them to be rated (too) highly by Corsi.

Doctor No is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 06:28 PM
  #8
ted1971
History Of Hockey
 
ted1971's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: south jersey
Country: United States
Posts: 1,486
vCash: 500
He could give the Leafs back around $2.500.000 per year.

ted1971 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 06:50 PM
  #9
kingdoughty
Registered User
 
kingdoughty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 724
vCash: 500
Ya he's worth no more than 3 million. It made me really depressed when they did that contract because I want Bernier to win

kingdoughty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 07:06 PM
  #10
hatterson
Global Moderator
 
hatterson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: North Tonawanda, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 11,416
vCash: 874
Send a message via Skype™ to hatterson
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
I haven't watched Clarkson enough to comment specifically on how often he shoots, but I agree with your conclusion - if you had a player who was prone to taking additional shots (at the expense of quality shots), I'd expect them to be rated (too) highly by Corsi.
Scott Gomez being the token example of this.

A quick check on stats.hockey-analysis.com says that from 2007-2013 there have been 99 players that have logged 5,000 or more minutes.

He has the lowest percentage of goals on corsi events of any of them, by a decent margin. He's at 3.37% and the next lowest is at 3.52% with only 8 players below 4% Most corsi analysis show Gomez being a decent player. Most people who watch hockey, or even look at goal based metrics, know that simply isn't true any more (and hasn't been for years).

Random note: Average of all those players is 4.714%, the best is Marty St. Louis at 5.72% Crosby misses the 5,000 minute mark, having only played ~4,450 due to his injuries, but posts a 6.4%


Now lets look at Clarkson. I've watched a ton of him playing in Toronto and he certainly seems to fit the mold of throw everything at the net, but I really can't be sure if that's because he's snakebitten and trying to compensate or if that's just the way he is.

I didn't watch a ton of him in New Jersey to judge, but we do have access to numbers courtesy of stats.hockey-analysis.com. Obviously we're dealing with numbers including teammates so it muddies the water a bit, but if the claim is that Clarkson takes a lot of low percentage shots, his CSh% should be low unless he's been paired with guys who are particularly good in that respect.

For the entire 2007-2013 stretch Clarkson played 4920 minutes and had a CF20 of 16.035 and a CA20 of 14.953 meaning he was generating a good number of shots, however is CSh% was only 4.08% That's 156th out of 197 forwards with more than 4000 minutes played.

Lets see if the claim that he's improving his corsi at the expense of quality (trading quantity for quality) bears weight though. If he wasn't, we'd expect these numbers to be roughly the same in the first 3 years of this stretch as well as the last 3. If he is, we'd expect to see a higher CSh% and lower corsi in the first half compared to the second.

So from 2007-2010 Clarkson played ~2,297 minutes. During that time he had a CF20 of 15.251 and a CA20 of 15.730 (CF% 49.2, 164 out of 239) while posting a CSh% of 5.02% (60th out of 239 forwards with >2000 mins played)

From 2010-2013 Clarkson played ~2,623 minutes. During that time he had a CF20 of 16.721 and a CA20 of 14.273 (CF% 53.9, 36 out of 228) while posting a CSh% of 3.33% (216th out of 228 forwards with >2000 mins played)

So yea, it certainly seems like he's changed his corsi approach, going from low numbers but high conversion rate to high numbers but low conversion rate. Granted I didn't review anything about deployment or quality of teammates or competition, but the results are still pretty striking.

__________________
Come join us on the By The Numbers forum. Take a look at our introduction post if you're new. If you have any questions, feel free to PM me.

Last edited by hatterson: 01-03-2014 at 07:28 PM.
hatterson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 07:14 PM
  #11
BigDaddyLurch
Deleted Posts Leader
 
BigDaddyLurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Exiled from Reality
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,872
vCash: 500
...by letting Nonis tear it up...only way possible...

BigDaddyLurch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 07:37 PM
  #12
struckbyaparkedcar
Zemgus Da Gawd
 
struckbyaparkedcar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Upstate NY
Country: Cote DIvoire
Posts: 10,572
vCash: 500
50 points (25 goals), 8-10 fights as a top six forward. As neither a top scorer or checker, he needs to be the central piece of the "mismatch" line.

struckbyaparkedcar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 07:47 PM
  #13
Strong Island
Registered User
 
Strong Island's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 2,839
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hatterson View Post
Scott Gomez being the token example of this.

A quick check on stats.hockey-analysis.com says that from 2007-2013 there have been 99 players that have logged 5,000 or more minutes.

He has the lowest percentage of goals on corsi events of any of them, by a decent margin. He's at 3.37% and the next lowest is at 3.52% with only 8 players below 4% Most corsi analysis show Gomez being a decent player. Most people who watch hockey, or even look at goal based metrics, know that simply isn't true any more (and hasn't been for years).

Random note: Average of all those players is 4.714%, the best is Marty St. Louis at 5.72% Crosby misses the 5,000 minute mark, having only played ~4,450 due to his injuries, but posts a 6.4%


Now lets look at Clarkson. I've watched a ton of him playing in Toronto and he certainly seems to fit the mold of throw everything at the net, but I really can't be sure if that's because he's snakebitten and trying to compensate or if that's just the way he is.

I didn't watch a ton of him in New Jersey to judge, but we do have access to numbers courtesy of stats.hockey-analysis.com. Obviously we're dealing with numbers including teammates so it muddies the water a bit, but if the claim is that Clarkson takes a lot of low percentage shots, his CSh% should be low unless he's been paired with guys who are particularly good in that respect.

For the entire 2007-2013 stretch Clarkson played 4920 minutes and had a CF20 of 16.035 and a CA20 of 14.953 meaning he was generating a good number of shots, however is CSh% was only 4.08% That's 156th out of 197 forwards with more than 4000 minutes played.

Lets see if the claim that he's improving his corsi at the expense of quality (trading quantity for quality) bears weight though. If he wasn't, we'd expect these numbers to be roughly the same in the first 3 years of this stretch as well as the last 3. If he is, we'd expect to see a higher CSh% and lower corsi in the first half compared to the second.

So from 2007-2010 Clarkson played ~2,297 minutes. During that time he had a CF20 of 15.251 and a CA20 of 15.730 (CF% 49.2, 164 out of 239) while posting a CSh% of 5.02% (60th out of 239 forwards with >2000 mins played)

From 2010-2013 Clarkson played ~2,623 minutes. During that time he had a CF20 of 16.721 and a CA20 of 14.273 (CF% 53.9, 36 out of 228) while posting a CSh% of 3.33% (216th out of 228 forwards with >2000 mins played)

So yea, it certainly seems like he's changed his corsi approach, going from low numbers but high conversion rate to high numbers but low conversion rate. Granted I didn't review anything about deployment or quality of teammates or competition, but the results are still pretty striking.
Good analysis. I would agree that he significantly improved as a player from 2010-2013 as you noted. However, a good amount of that improvement could probably be attributed to him riding shotgun with possession deity Patrik Elias more often the last few years.

Strong Island is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 07:49 PM
  #14
azrok22
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 9,431
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by ted1971 View Post
He could give the Leafs back around $2.500.000 per year.
Cap hit is a lot more important than cash for the Leafs, so he really would need give the $2.5m to some other player under the table to sign with the Leafs under market value.

azrok22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 09:01 PM
  #15
J17 Vs Proclamation
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Reading.
Country: South Korea
Posts: 7,840
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to J17 Vs Proclamation
He's earnt his contract. He has it. Why the majority of the human race never truely understands what earn or deserve actually mean in the applicable sense is beyond me.

If we are talking production relative to contract and market value, i'd be shocked if he ever "met" the criteria or expectatons.

Go and find some magic beans.

J17 Vs Proclamation is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 09:15 PM
  #16
Doctor No
Retired
 
Doctor No's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,395
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
He's earnt his contract. He has it. Why the majority of the human race never truely understands what earn or deserve actually mean in the applicable sense is beyond me.

If we are talking production relative to contract and market value, i'd be shocked if he ever "met" the criteria or expectatons.

Go and find some magic beans.
It seems pretty clear what the author meant by "earn".

Doctor No is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 09:25 PM
  #17
J17 Vs Proclamation
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Reading.
Country: South Korea
Posts: 7,840
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to J17 Vs Proclamation
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
It seems pretty clear what the author meant by "earn".
It's pretty clear the author simply can't apply the word correctly.

The link is interesting aside, though given the criteria reached to "earn" this contract, Clarkson will almost certainly fall short. His best season barely reaches the ordinary level and even then we can all agree he's probably still significantly below the impact of the other names listed.

From an NHL point of view, i can't even begin to construct any lip service, let alone valid reasoning, as to why such a contract was given out. The price and term are bad even if Clarkson had a greater history of "being" what he got paid for, but the sample size he got paid on isn't only small, but likely very fallacious.

Congratulations to Clarkson though. He got paid and no one should begrudge him for that.

J17 Vs Proclamation is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-03-2014, 09:29 PM
  #18
Doctor No
Retired
 
Doctor No's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23,395
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
It's pretty clear the author simply can't apply the word correctly.
The word doesn't have to always be applied retrospectively.

The author's just fine. I understand that you're trying to make a semantic point, but it doesn't hit the mark.

Anyhow, let's get back to the discussion of the topic (as intended by the author).

Doctor No is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-04-2014, 10:42 PM
  #19
MarkGio
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,952
vCash: 67
My only problem with the method is that Clarkson wasn't paid (entirely) for points, but Vollman's analysis in comparing Hemsky, Carter, etc. with Clarkson used points.

Clarkson leads all Leafs forwards in hits, he's 2nd among Leafs forwards in shot blocks/game, and he's tied with Fraser and Bodie for being 3th in number of fights among leafs players (behind Orr and Mclaren)

MarkGio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-05-2014, 04:03 AM
  #20
Habaneros
Habs Cup champs 2010
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 5,700
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalupa Batman View Post
I'm a big fan of Rob Vollman's work (although he won't respond to my e-mails ). This article from December 27th explores David Clarkson's contract:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...to-maple-leafs

It looks at what contracts of that level typically produce, and the value of Clarkson's production. Interesting read.
Clarkson's a good hockey player,but this contract will end up
like Jeff Finger's contract(waivers sent Ahl) /Mike Komeserik (waivers,Ahl, bought out)

These contracts never fit these players,but all 3 hit the jackpot
with the Leafs.

Waivers /Buyout will be end result.
Untradable contract,the ultimate no trade clause..lol


Last edited by Habaneros: 01-05-2014 at 04:23 AM.
Habaneros is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-05-2014, 07:26 AM
  #21
Spectrefire
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 439
vCash: 500
He can't. It's as simple as that. He's being paid to be a 30 goal scorer when he isn't.

He's not a goal scoring top six powerforward, he's a good 3rd liner who can chip in 15 goals a season.

Spectrefire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-05-2014, 12:07 PM
  #22
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 11,588
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
My only problem with the method is that Clarkson wasn't paid (entirely) for points, but Vollman's analysis in comparing Hemsky, Carter, etc. with Clarkson used points.

Clarkson leads all Leafs forwards in hits, he's 2nd among Leafs forwards in shot blocks/game, and he's tied with Fraser and Bodie for being 3th in number of fights among leafs players (behind Orr and Mclaren)
Hits, fights and shot blocks can be acquired for sub $1MM.

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-05-2014, 12:32 PM
  #23
Garbage Goal
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 17,189
vCash: 500
Basically he'd have to do what he's doing now by blocking shots, hitting, fighting, etc. but he'd also have to be a 20 to 30 G scorer very consistently at the least. Which isn't reasonable expectations for him.

He's managed to break the 20 G mark once in his career and that was in a career high shooting percentage season (unless you count a seven game rookie stint) where he almost doubled his career high in goals. That season was a very clear outlier in his career path even on just a surface level and that's what he got paid for essentially. One year's worth of production at the right time. Although, in fairness, he probably would have broken the 20 G mark again last season had it been a full season.

I can see him producing at a 20 G clip some seasons and maybe even doing better then that at points, but the guy is going to provide little scoring aside from that which is the biggest problem really. That and he probably won't hit the 20 G mark consistently I imagine over the course of that contract.

He's also turning 30 in half a year and plays a physical style so it's unlikely he'll ever break out into anything more then he is now.

For the record though, the contract isn't as bad as some people make it out to be at the moment. He's missed a lot of time with suspension this season and people never really point out that his current shooting percentage is the lowest it's ever been and abysmally low (around five percent). Shooting percentage is usually a pretty good indicator of scoring abnormalities.

The contract could turn out pretty horrible which it probably will but at the moment if he can rebound into a 15 to 20 G guy with his shooting percentage returning to the norm it isn't too bad of a contract mainly due to the rising cap.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
My only problem with the method is that Clarkson wasn't paid (entirely) for points, but Vollman's analysis in comparing Hemsky, Carter, etc. with Clarkson used points.

Clarkson leads all Leafs forwards in hits, he's 2nd among Leafs forwards in shot blocks/game, and he's tied with Fraser and Bodie for being 3th in number of fights among leafs players (behind Orr and Mclaren)
That's a fair point to mention, but at that money and length you expect scoring as well. He's also been suspended for a lot of the season so far.

Garbage Goal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-05-2014, 01:43 PM
  #24
Micklebot
Registered User
 
Micklebot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 4,867
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hatterson View Post
Scott Gomez being the token example of this.

A quick check on stats.hockey-analysis.com says that from 2007-2013 there have been 99 players that have logged 5,000 or more minutes.

He has the lowest percentage of goals on corsi events of any of them, by a decent margin. He's at 3.37% and the next lowest is at 3.52% with only 8 players below 4% Most corsi analysis show Gomez being a decent player. Most people who watch hockey, or even look at goal based metrics, know that simply isn't true any more (and hasn't been for years).

Random note: Average of all those players is 4.714%, the best is Marty St. Louis at 5.72% Crosby misses the 5,000 minute mark, having only played ~4,450 due to his injuries, but posts a 6.4%


Now lets look at Clarkson. I've watched a ton of him playing in Toronto and he certainly seems to fit the mold of throw everything at the net, but I really can't be sure if that's because he's snakebitten and trying to compensate or if that's just the way he is.

I didn't watch a ton of him in New Jersey to judge, but we do have access to numbers courtesy of stats.hockey-analysis.com. Obviously we're dealing with numbers including teammates so it muddies the water a bit, but if the claim is that Clarkson takes a lot of low percentage shots, his CSh% should be low unless he's been paired with guys who are particularly good in that respect.

For the entire 2007-2013 stretch Clarkson played 4920 minutes and had a CF20 of 16.035 and a CA20 of 14.953 meaning he was generating a good number of shots, however is CSh% was only 4.08% That's 156th out of 197 forwards with more than 4000 minutes played.

Lets see if the claim that he's improving his corsi at the expense of quality (trading quantity for quality) bears weight though. If he wasn't, we'd expect these numbers to be roughly the same in the first 3 years of this stretch as well as the last 3. If he is, we'd expect to see a higher CSh% and lower corsi in the first half compared to the second.

So from 2007-2010 Clarkson played ~2,297 minutes. During that time he had a CF20 of 15.251 and a CA20 of 15.730 (CF% 49.2, 164 out of 239) while posting a CSh% of 5.02% (60th out of 239 forwards with >2000 mins played)

From 2010-2013 Clarkson played ~2,623 minutes. During that time he had a CF20 of 16.721 and a CA20 of 14.273 (CF% 53.9, 36 out of 228) while posting a CSh% of 3.33% (216th out of 228 forwards with >2000 mins played)

So yea, it certainly seems like he's changed his corsi approach, going from low numbers but high conversion rate to high numbers but low conversion rate. Granted I didn't review anything about deployment or quality of teammates or competition, but the results are still pretty striking.
While it doesn't directly speak to the quality of shots, Clarkson has 1296 shot attempts from 2007-2013 and 833 shots making it on goal. That's 64.27% of his attempts hitting the net, which is good for 7th best among players with >4000 mins in that timeframe. This year only 55.3% of his shots are getting through to the net. His personal shot attempts per 60 are also way down, from 19.6 to 13.0.

So he's shooting the puck a lot less, and missing or being blocked more frequently than he was in NJ, which seems to me a bad combination, though it might be because of his role and linemates in TO vs NJ.

Micklebot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-05-2014, 02:34 PM
  #25
MarkGio
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,952
vCash: 67
To add more fuel to the fire, the Leafs may have soured relations with Franson because of this

MarkGio is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:09 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.