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The Colorado Avalanche are 15-5-0

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Old
11-17-2013, 08:05 AM
  #526
TCL40
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Its ridulous that a team that is 14-5 is only three points away from being out of the playoffs.

Wow.
West has a bunch of really good teams this year. I think there will be a lot of ebb and flow to the standings before the spring.

I think the Avs this are due to fade from the strong start-pretty typical of young teams.

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11-17-2013, 08:10 AM
  #527
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The Panthers have been playing well lately. Beat the Ducks too. You guy say that the Avs have a bad D. Well the Panthers made the Rangers D look bad. The Rangers D is considered one of the best Ds in the league. That team is tough to play against. We beat them by the skin of our teeth.

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11-17-2013, 08:48 AM
  #528
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Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
The Panthers have been playing well lately. Beat the Ducks too. You guy say that the Avs have a bad D. Well the Panthers made the Rangers D look bad. The Rangers D is considered one of the best Ds in the league. That team is tough to play against. We beat them by the skin of our teeth.
Panthers played well. Nobody wants to diminish their role in that game. It wasn't the first game Avs' D was terrible, though.

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11-17-2013, 08:54 AM
  #529
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Bring back Sacco?
Clearly the job he's doing now shows we were very hasty in getting rid of him.

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11-17-2013, 09:22 AM
  #530
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I do get a good chuckle out of just how manically bipolar my fellow Avs fans can be.

We're a young team who are going to have bad nights and lose games because bad luck leads to momentum killing goals, like the Florida and canes games.

But remembering that that's what's expected just isn't how we roll when we can freak out about the sky falling instead.

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11-17-2013, 09:27 AM
  #531
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Originally Posted by frostyflo View Post
no, they have not.



to be fair you also had a bad start in the game against us where the refs gave us a free PP. your team is young, needs to learn how to deal with adversity.
You seem not to be getting how this works. The Avs lost, which makes the talbot trade the single worst move in the history of hockey and the start of our team tanking it's way to relocation. If you don't you're not doing it right.

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11-17-2013, 10:11 AM
  #532
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
I do get a good chuckle out of just how manically bipolar my fellow Avs fans can be.

We're a young team who are going to have bad nights and lose games because bad luck leads to momentum killing goals, like the Florida and canes games.

But remembering that that's what's expected just isn't how we roll when we can freak out about the sky falling instead.
You can't blame those loses on bad luck, its lack of effort.

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Old
11-17-2013, 10:24 AM
  #533
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This team is now supposed to be a perennial cup contender, a powerhouse. They're what the Oilers were supposed to be this year. If you can't handle Duchene being gone a bit, I'll have to seriously question that.

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11-17-2013, 10:27 AM
  #534
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This team is now supposed to be a perennial cup contender, a powerhouse. They're what the Oilers were supposed to be this year. If you can't handle Duchene being gone a bit, I'll have to seriously question that.
Who thought that Colorado was going to be a cup contender or powerhouse this season? Even when they were winning all those games, I still didn't think they were those things.

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11-17-2013, 11:04 AM
  #535
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Originally Posted by Hockey Nightmare View Post
This team is now supposed to be a perennial cup contender, a powerhouse. They're what the Oilers were supposed to be this year. If you can't handle Duchene being gone a bit, I'll have to seriously question that.
This team was never supposed to be a cup contender or a powerhouse. Please, don't make stuff up.

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11-17-2013, 11:05 AM
  #536
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Originally Posted by Drij View Post
You can't blame those loses on bad luck, its lack of effort.
There was no lack of effort against the canes. And against the panthers the team have up momentum killing goals every time they started to get back into the game. Those things are going to happen with a young team. And are no reason to start freaking out about a core who made it through almost a fifth of the season before having their first such game.

We just had the first overall pick, this team still has a lot of growing to do.

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11-17-2013, 11:06 AM
  #537
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
You seem not to be getting how this works. The Avs lost, which makes the talbot trade the single worst move in the history of hockey and the start of our team tanking it's way to relocation. If you don't you're not doing it right.
Some of us have been pessimistic since the offseason and a fast start doesn't change that. It was never a good idea to go into the season planning for Wilson/Benoit/Sarich to play big roles on the team.

It's also no surprise that we have no forward depth in Erie. I don't think pointing out these issues is bipolar.

And while the talbot trade really isn't a big deal, it was a waste of an asset that could have been spent in another way. It's not that particular trade that's the problem - more just a troubling sign that even with the new management were not really finding good value on trades. Like I've said many times before, I don't think that contending teams get and stay where they are by constantly overspending their limited assets.

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11-17-2013, 01:35 PM
  #538
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To me Corsi tells only one story in most games... the increase in shots taken when a team is trailing in the game. Find a team that loses every game in a season by 1 or 2 goals, and you'll find a team leading Corsi.
That's a good point; score effects cause teams that are winning to play a bit safer (chip the puck off the glass and out, don't send the dman in on the rush) and teams that are losing tend to make riskier plays. That's why "corsi" is often broken down into "score close" - when the game is within 1 goal in the 1st/2nd periods, or tied in the 3rd.

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Originally Posted by Puckstop40 View Post
I wonder if people who use corsi have ever played sports.
I play on 2 hockey teams and sub for a 3rd one. It's not the most competitive hockey in the world but there are a few players that retired from the SEL and some other euro pro leagues.

There are games where you win 4-2 or 6-4 and the shot count was 47-23 and you realize you were lucky to win. Sometimes players on my team say "yeah, we killed them, sure they had shots but we buried our chances!" and I bite my tongue. It's about realizing consistent ways to win hockey games.

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Originally Posted by EdAVSfan View Post
You seem to have not included the scoring chance numbers...

What are they?

And also, you mentioned that Minnesota was getting regularly destroyed in all game metrics. Have you done this same exercise for Colorado games? How often are they being "destroyed?" At which points of the game are they being outplayed? Are they outplaying teams when score is close? Are they being outplayed when the score is not close?

Seems like you've done absolutely no work in regards to coming to your conclusion.
Here's a look at the correlation between scoring chances and corsi:

Shot quality revisited
Quote:
Across those 18 teams, the correlation between a player's shot differential and his scoring chance differential is about 0.80-0.85 (depending on whether you set the cutoff for games played at something like 20 or something like 70).


"If you can't see the pattern there, you really aren't trying."



Also, DragLikePull watched 10 Maple Leaf games and he used his stopwatch to time how often either team had control of the puck in the offensive zone.

Measuring puck possession
Quote:
This does not conclusively prove that shot rate statistics are an accurate proxy for puck possession. I measured only 10 games out of the 1230 that are played every NHL season. However, the data I've collected here is one more piece of evidence that shot rates do come very close to puck possession. The fact that the numbers line up more closely as I add in more games supports this conclusion.
Also a very high correlation between zone time and corsi.


Teams that regularly outshot their opponents also regularly outchance them. Teams that regularly outchance their opponent also regularly spend more time with the puck in the offensive end. That shouldn't be some crazy rocket science - it's common sense.


Here's an exercise for you to try: Roughly 2/3rds of the entire game is spent with teams controlling the puck in the defensive or neutral zone. Getting a shot attempt (or scoring chance) happens far more frequently when a team gains possession of the offensive zone while maintaining control of the puck (ie; not dump/chase). Watch for the players on your team who do a good job entering the zone, and watch how often your team allows the other team to enter your defensive end with possession.

Watch how often a team gets a shot on goal after entering with possession, and how rarely it happens when they dump and forecheck (dumping it for the sake of a line change doesn't count).

If you count how often you're gaining their zone, versus how often you're allowing the other team to gain your zone... You should have an accurate picture of who is outplaying the other team. Those zone entries are more likely to result in shots, the more shots you get the more scoring chances you get, and the more scoring chances you get, the more likely you are to win the game.

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Old
11-17-2013, 03:30 PM
  #539
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
There was no lack of effort against the canes. And against the panthers the team have up momentum killing goals every time they started to get back into the game. Those things are going to happen with a young team. And are no reason to start freaking out about a core who made it through almost a fifth of the season before having their first such game.

We just had the first overall pick, this team still has a lot of growing to do.
uhh no, avs where outplayed by the canes for 50mins that game. It wasn't luck.

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Old
11-17-2013, 03:46 PM
  #540
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I really hope the Avs hold on and keep a decent pace and finish with 100 pts or so and a 6-8 seed.

It was just a week or so ago when multiple fans but really one guy who has stopped posting in these threads saying the Avs were as good or better than STL and SJ. Mostly STL but there was a SJ in there as well.

Hawks, Blues, Ducks, Kings and Sharks are locks for the playoffs.

This leaves 6-8 IMO open.

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Old
11-17-2013, 04:46 PM
  #541
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Colorado currently has the best GA in the west and the second best in the entire league. It would be like the Blues being tops in GF, just in no way sustainable with their current roster. I think when their defensive play comes down to earth (as has happened recently) and other teams offenses start playing better against them they will turn into a borderline playoff team. I mean look at their top six, it's like a piece of swiss cheese and their forwards are not exactly selke caliber to cover the deficiencies on defense.

The positive side is that their forward core is probably top 3 in offensive firepower and top five overall (defense and offfense). They need to pick up a true number two and three dman to be a SC contender.

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Old
11-17-2013, 05:22 PM
  #542
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Originally Posted by Colorado Avalanche View Post
Well, It's starting to look like Avalanche is slowing down. They have played quite bad last few games. Maybe It's just a bad stretch, but It looks like our defense is going back to old habits, even Varly looked shaky last game(vs nash). Oh well, I hope I'm not right.

But yeah, as a fan, you have to enjoy streaks like this. Whatever happens this season, It's hell of a start, I would have never expected Colorado start like this, so whatever!
every emerging team has hiccups like this.

this is where Roy will earn his stripes. settling things down and getting them back on the same page is the mark of a great coach.

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11-17-2013, 05:37 PM
  #543
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Originally Posted by tmterrill View Post
Colorado currently has the best GA in the west and the second best in the entire league. It would be like the Blues being tops in GF, just in no way sustainable with their current roster. I think when their defensive play comes down to earth (as has happened recently) and other teams offenses start playing better against them they will turn into a borderline playoff team. I mean look at their top six, it's like a piece of swiss cheese and their forwards are not exactly selke caliber to cover the deficiencies on defense.

The positive side is that their forward core is probably top 3 in offensive firepower and top five overall (defense and offfense). They need to pick up a true number two and three dman to be a SC contender.
Our other big problem is all our young talent at forward is already playing on the roster. When healthy we have a great offense but we have literally no depth in the minors to pick up the slack when guys get hurt (as they are now)

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11-17-2013, 05:39 PM
  #544
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Our other big problem is all our young talent at forward is already playing on the roster. When healthy we have a great offense but we have literally no depth in the minors to pick up the slack when guys get hurt (as they are now)
it's a hiccup.

Roy will have to adjust a bit for the replacements, but it will happen.

You have more than enough talent to overcome the injuries you have.

whole new system/crew so it won't be seamless, but it will come.

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11-17-2013, 06:53 PM
  #545
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Originally Posted by frivolousz21 View Post
I really hope the Avs hold on and keep a decent pace and finish with 100 pts or so and a 6-8 seed.

It was just a week or so ago when multiple fans but really one guy who has stopped posting in these threads saying the Avs were as good or better than STL and SJ. Mostly STL but there was a SJ in there as well.

Hawks, Blues, Ducks, Kings and Sharks are locks for the playoffs.

This leaves 6-8 IMO open.
Kings are not a lock. West is so tough any team could have key injuries that effect standing or playoffs...

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Old
11-17-2013, 07:30 PM
  #546
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uhh no, avs where outplayed by the canes for 50mins that game. It wasn't luck.
They were outplayed for like 15 minutes of that game, not 50.

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Old
11-17-2013, 07:32 PM
  #547
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Originally Posted by tmterrill View Post
Colorado currently has the best GA in the west and the second best in the entire league. It would be like the Blues being tops in GF, just in no way sustainable with their current roster. I think when their defensive play comes down to earth (as has happened recently) and other teams offenses start playing better against them they will turn into a borderline playoff team. I mean look at their top six, it's like a piece of swiss cheese and their forwards are not exactly selke caliber to cover the deficiencies on defense.

The positive side is that their forward core is probably top 3 in offensive firepower and top five overall (defense and offfense). They need to pick up a true number two and three dman to be a SC contender.
...two of our forwards are damn near selke caliber, and three others are excellent as well, not mentioning on PK-specialist third liner...

That's kinda how we'd been covering up for the bottom 4 on D...

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11-17-2013, 07:34 PM
  #548
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Originally Posted by UnrefinedCrude View Post
it's a hiccup.

Roy will have to adjust a bit for the replacements, but it will happen.

You have more than enough talent to overcome the injuries you have.

whole new system/crew so it won't be seamless, but it will come.
Your being far too rational. The only team in the NHL who's been able to run three high quality scoring lines clearly lacks depth

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Old
11-19-2013, 09:37 PM
  #549
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Avs are legit

Team is a matchup nightmare for Hawks ,, Far more worried about possible Col/Chi playoff series under new divisional format then I am about a Stl/Chi matchup

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11-19-2013, 09:44 PM
  #550
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Avs are legit

Team is a matchup nightmare for Hawks ,, Far more worried about possible Col/Chi playoff series under new divisional format then I am about a Stl/Chi matchup
Chicago dominated that period, could have been a tie game if not for Varlamov and some luck. Shots are almost 2-1. Hopefully they can come back and play the 3rd more like the first.

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