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Results vs Backup Goalies

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11-06-2013, 06:17 PM
  #1
SA16
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Results vs Backup Goalies

I went through every game since 2010 to see how we do vs. backups compared to vs. starters. I didn't have a particularly stringent set of rules to determine a backup. Basically I just used someone who either played like 30 or less games, was only a "starter" due to an injury, wasn't in a timeshare etc..

The results are below

It appears like we average 2.36 goals/game vs backups and approximately 2.63 goals/game vs starters (vs. starters might be slightly off due to the total games vs starters possibly being slightly low as when I subtracted it out that now is removing games where the starter came in relief of the backup - for this reason I added in an extra 3 games to the "goals vs starters, games"" category largely because I don't feel like going back through every game again to find out how many there is.

So it does indeed seem true we have had trouble vs. backups relative to how we do vs. starters. For a fuller comparison we would have to compare how the overall league does against backups which we could compute easier simply by looking at backups combined GAA compared to starters combined GAA

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11-06-2013, 06:20 PM
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JohnC
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I won't ignore the fact that we have problems scoring goals, but no one here will ever seem to admit that the backup played ridiculously well against us when they do.

Whenever threads pop up on the main boards about a team's kryptonite A LOT of other teams fans say that backup goalies are theirs too.

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11-06-2013, 09:18 PM
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regardless of our team playing like **** or the opposing goalie playing great, the team in front of the goalie always plays differently when they have their backup in net. When marty 5 hole biron played guys knew they couldnt give up the same kind of shots they did with hank because the trust wasnt there, and say what u want about the team liking biron and having confidence in him everyone on the ice knows the backup in most cases isnt as good as the starter and the defense plays accordingly.

too bad theres not stats to show how much more of a defensive style the other team played or how much fewer chances they took during those games...

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11-06-2013, 09:20 PM
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It could be a few things.

Defense plays tighter when the backup is in the net so as a result they will let up less goals.
Teams scout starting goalies better than backups.

or who knows, maybe teams get over confident when they play against backups and that has in impact as well.

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11-06-2013, 09:55 PM
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Okay, but how does every other team do against backups?

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Old
11-06-2013, 10:13 PM
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SA16
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Among goalies who started less than 20 games last year:

1207 goals allowed
~26580 minutes plays
2.72 GAA

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11-06-2013, 10:42 PM
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Curse of the Backup is real!! It started off as a joke, I'm so happy someone made a table.

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11-06-2013, 11:37 PM
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They beat up on a backup caliber goalie tonight.

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11-06-2013, 11:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conine View Post
They beat up on a backup caliber goalie tonight.
Fleury's actually a pretty good regular season goalie

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11-07-2013, 12:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SA16 View Post
Among goalies who started less than 20 games last year:

1207 goals allowed
~26580 minutes plays
2.72 GAA
****. That's almost a .4gpg difference. Surprised its that much.

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Old
11-07-2013, 07:14 AM
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I'll do a significance test on this later. Thanks for the info.

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11-07-2013, 08:53 AM
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Could be interesting to see the W-L record against Starter and against Backup in the same time span.

If we have a better W-L record against starters and the argument that teams play more defensively in front of a backup, should prove to some degree that defensive hockey is winning hockey.

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11-07-2013, 11:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind Jam Grind View Post
I'll do a significance test on this later. Thanks for the info.
One thing to note is you may want to divide by like 56-58 games instead of the 61 I used for goals score to try to mitigate the effect of times a backup came in the third period of a game and gave up no goals which I have counting as a full game and is obviously not true

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11-07-2013, 02:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SA16 View Post
One thing to note is you may want to divide by like 56-58 games instead of the 61 I used for goals score to try to mitigate the effect of times a backup came in the third period of a game and gave up no goals which I have counting as a full game and is obviously not true
Good idea, thanks.

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11-07-2013, 02:31 PM
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A problem for when I'm doing this, this doesn't give the GAA for each game. Let's say a goalie gave up 2 goals and got pulled at exactly the 58 minute mark of the game. (2/58) * 60 = 2.07. That's his GAA for that game. Box scores usually have that. Since that is per 60 minutes, that will help better standardize the averages in the end, and also will take into account the 5 minutes of OT that may have been played.

Also, do these numbers include Shootouts? Because if so, those goals should be removed, IMO.

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Old
11-07-2013, 05:23 PM
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Shootouts wouldn't be included since it doesn't count as a goal against for the goalie.

I could have taken GAA for each game straight from the box score but didn't want to use that since you can't really just average all the GAA's and then get the average GAA. Taking goals against and minutes played for each goalie would be more accurate than what I did for sure but it's very time consuming

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11-07-2013, 10:02 PM
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Statistical Significance...

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11-08-2013, 08:06 AM
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Maybe some teams actually have decent backups? Cam is doing a pretty good job this season as our backup

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11-08-2013, 08:21 AM
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Old
11-08-2013, 11:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garfinkel1 View Post
I assure you I know much more about statistical significance than you do. Additionally if you read my post you would have realized that nowhere did I clami the results to be or not to be significant nor did I say these prior results can be used to predict future results. It is merely a set of data showing how we have done against backups in the past. It is not supposed to be used to show how we will do in the future. It is just supposed to be usde to prove or disprove the theory that "The Rangers never score against backups!"

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