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Crosby's pace??

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Old
11-12-2013, 12:35 PM
  #126
Larry Hoover
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beau Knows View Post
Same thing that happened to Ovechkin 50 goals in 50 games discussion...
If you carry over Ovechkin's goals from last season, I believe he is 1 or 2 goals off of a goal per game pace...

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Old
11-12-2013, 12:56 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Larry Hoover View Post
If you carry over Ovechkin's goals from last season, I believe he is 1 or 2 goals off of a goal per game pace...
Woah there, bucko "pace" is only considered when discussing Crosby.

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Old
11-12-2013, 01:47 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by FakeKidPoker View Post
So is this going to die down so many of the "oh well if Crosby could only stay healthy he'd be putting up 140-150 points a year debate)

He is healthy this year.

It just can't be done.
It can. Not by him though and most likely not by anyone in the league right now.

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Old
11-12-2013, 02:29 PM
  #129
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Might be worth noting, including the 2012-13 season, Crosby has 79 Pts in his last 53 games, a pace of 1.49 PPG.


Hence the comment : "the longer he plays, the more his PPG will drop".

I was arguing that his PPG of 1.61 over the span of three truncated seasons was just an aberration and that his real PPG capability over the span of a full season is 1.35-1.40 and I was called crazy, a Crosby hater, a Jagr lover.


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Old
11-12-2013, 03:09 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
Might be worth noting, including the 2012-13 season, Crosby has 79 Pts in his last 53 games, a pace of 1.49 PPG.


Hence the comment : "the longer he plays, the more his PPG will drop".

I was arguing that his PPG of 1.61 over the span of three truncated seasons was just an aberration and that his real PPG capability over the span of a full season is 1.35-1.40 and I was called crazy, a Crosby hater, a Jagr lover.

Mmm...let's see what happens when you include more games.

Add in 2011-12 and PPG rises to 1.55

Add in 2010-11 and PPG rises to 1.57

This seems to contradict your comment.

You have also now validated counting partial seasons in rating players.

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11-12-2013, 03:14 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by daver View Post
Mmm...let's see what happens when you include more games.

Add in 2011-12 and PPG rises to 1.55

Add in 2010-11 and PPG rises to 1.57

This seems to contradict your comment.

You have also now validated counting partial seasons in rating players.
Say what you want, but his PPG now is less than 1.60 over the span of the last 4 seasons. I cannot wait until Crosby finishes the season with less than 1.40 PPG. Then those 120 + Pts predictions will become funny.

Crosby will need to score 97 Pts or more in the next 65 games (assuming he plays all 82 games) to score 120 + Pts, I doubt he reaches that number, but it won't matter: we will still have those saying, 110 Pts is 130 + Pts in the 90's.... blah blah.....


Last edited by livewell68: 11-12-2013 at 03:28 PM.
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Old
11-12-2013, 04:06 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
Say what you want, but his PPG now is less than 1.60 over the span of the last 4 seasons. I cannot wait until Crosby finishes the season with less than 1.40 PPG. Then those 120 + Pts predictions will become funny.

Crosby will need to score 97 Pts or more in the next 65 games (assuming he plays all 82 games) to score 120 + Pts, I doubt he reaches that number, but it won't matter: we will still have those saying, 110 Pts is 130 + Pts in the 90's.... blah blah.....
Are you acknowledging that PPG does not necessarily decrease with more games played and that predictions of a 120 plus season are reasonable?

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Old
11-12-2013, 04:13 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
Say what you want, but his PPG now is less than 1.60 over the span of the last 4 seasons. I cannot wait until Crosby finishes the season with less than 1.40 PPG. Then those 120 + Pts predictions will become funny.

Crosby will need to score 97 Pts or more in the next 65 games (assuming he plays all 82 games) to score 120 + Pts, I doubt he reaches that number, but it won't matter: we will still have those saying, 110 Pts is 130 + Pts in the 90's.... blah blah.....
Why do you care so much about this?

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Old
11-12-2013, 04:17 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by fly4apuckguy View Post
Your post is 25% correct. Crosby is the best player in the world.

Crosby is in a mild slump because of several factors, but it isn't just his teammates. He has been checked very tightly by some good teams, has come up against some great goaltending (Lundqvist), and his teammates are not cashing in either.
The biggest thing slowing Crosby down is the same thing that Boston did to them in May. They recognize that he's the only real threat on that line and double- or even triple-team him. Neither Kunitz nor Dupuis are going to beat you on their own.

Add in Malkin's struggles, and their uber-powerful offensive is non-existent. It's unreal how big of an impact those two have, and it's sad that you only have to slow them down to kill the Penguins' offense.

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Old
11-12-2013, 04:36 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by daver View Post
Mmm...let's see what happens when you include more games.

Add in 2011-12 and PPG rises to 1.55

Add in 2010-11 and PPG rises to 1.57

This seems to contradict your comment.

You have also now validated counting partial seasons in rating players.
Why would you include truncated seasons when that is the very thing being overvalued (or undervalued)?

Dont change the the argument.

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11-12-2013, 04:41 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by daver View Post
Are you acknowledging that PPG does not necessarily decrease with more games played and that predictions of a 120 plus season are reasonable?
Just curious....Skimming through your post history....90% of your posts on this board are related to Sid....Are you related to him in some fashion? Do you know him in real life? What's the connection?

 
Old
11-12-2013, 04:48 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by mrv52 View Post
Why would you include truncated seasons when that is the very thing being overvalued (or undervalued)?

Dont change the the argument.
How did I change the argument?

The poster's argument was PPG decreases with more games played and used truncated seasons to prove it. I simply was disproving the argument using the same parameters.

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11-12-2013, 04:49 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by BudMovin View Post
Just curious....Skimming through your post history....90% of your posts on this board are related to Sid....Are you related to him in some fashion? Do you know him in real life? What's the connection?
You call looking at over 1700 posts skimming?

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Old
11-12-2013, 05:06 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by daver View Post
How did I change the argument?

The poster's argument was PPG decreases with more games played and used truncated seasons to prove it. I simply was disproving the argument using the same parameters.
You added in his most truncated seasons. I think it is fair to look at his stats from last year since he only missed a dozen games.

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11-12-2013, 05:14 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by mrv52 View Post
You added in his most truncated seasons. I think it is fair to look at his stats from last year since he only missed a dozen games.
C'mon, he played more games in 2010-11 than last year. That's not relevant?

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11-12-2013, 05:18 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
Say what you want, but his PPG now is less than 1.60 over the span of the last 4 seasons. I cannot wait until Crosby finishes the season with less than 1.40 PPG. Then those 120 + Pts predictions will become funny.

Crosby will need to score 97 Pts or more in the next 65 games (assuming he plays all 82 games) to score 120 + Pts, I doubt he reaches that number, but it won't matter: we will still have those saying, 110 Pts is 130 + Pts in the 90's.... blah blah.....
not as bad as saying that Jagr will compete for the Art Ross...

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Old
11-12-2013, 06:17 PM
  #142
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not as bad as saying that Jagr will compete for the Art Ross...
Is it really a competition when Jagr wins the AR by like 20 points?

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Old
11-12-2013, 07:01 PM
  #143
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Originally Posted by daver View Post
C'mon, he played more games in 2010-11 than last year. That's not relevant?
36 games is 75% of a 48 game seasons.

41 games is 50% of 82 games.

22 games is 27% of 82 games.

I'm pretty sure that using the season in which he played the most games of the possible season would be the most relevant in discussing PPG and projecting, would it not?

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Old
11-12-2013, 07:03 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by MFSorcerer View Post
ITT: Haters who only WISH their team had someone at Crosby's level. Jealousy is tremendously ugly.
Pretty much, this thread is hilarious though. People forget the kind of player Crosby is, he's a slow starter to seasons and this season is play shows that but he was putting up points and so people thought he was playing awesome to start the year, not even remotely the case, he will pick his game up and go on streaks that make up for lulls like this.

This thread will be hilarious to look back on at the end of the season though.

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Old
11-12-2013, 07:38 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by Honour Over Glory View Post
Pretty much, this thread is hilarious though. People forget the kind of player Crosby is, he's a slow starter to seasons and this season is play shows that but he was putting up points and so people thought he was playing awesome to start the year, not even remotely the case, he will pick his game up and go on streaks that make up for lulls like this.

This thread will be hilarious to look back on at the end of the season though.
Agreed. I think we were about 15 games in last year when people were saying Crosby was finished as a superstar, Ovechkin should consider retiring, and Vanek was going to be the new Art Ross winner in the NHL.

Things change quickly. Hang on.

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Old
11-12-2013, 07:44 PM
  #146
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Well of course I wish the team I rooted for had a player with Crosby like talent. The actual player Crosby, eh, not really.
Every other team thinks the star on someone else's team is a jerk.

I know, I know...Crosby is REALLY bad. Just like every other superstar in the NHL is its history until they hit 30, maybe 31...then they somehow become appreciated.

The most despised NHL hockey player when I was growing up? Gretzky. By far. He was "an opportunist", a "floater", a "cherry picker", a "whiner", a "baby", and a "diver".

Some things never change.

But I know, Crosby is REALLY those things.

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Old
11-12-2013, 07:53 PM
  #147
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
36 games is 75% of a 48 game seasons.

41 games is 50% of 82 games.

22 games is 27% of 82 games.

I'm pretty sure that using the season in which he played the most games of the possible season would be the most relevant in discussing PPG and projecting, would it not?
Well you would be wrong. That is literally one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this board. How would placing emphasis on an arbitrary, non-predictive factor like season length make any sense when when considering scoring pace? It doesn't. But predictably, you are grasping at straws to discredit Crosby.

Its laughable that you would advocate so strongly for using a smaller sample size, when for the past few years you have argued for the exact opposite methodology. You are the HF equivalent of FOX news.

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11-12-2013, 07:56 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post
36 games is 75% of a 48 game seasons.

41 games is 50% of 82 games.

22 games is 27% of 82 games.

I'm pretty sure that using the season in which he played the most games of the possible season would be the most relevant in discussing PPG and projecting, would it not?
If you combine those seasons, he has actually played 152% of the games.

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Old
11-12-2013, 08:45 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by Vikke View Post
If you combine those seasons, he has actually played 152% of the games.
He played 99 games of a possible 212 games, I don't see how that's 152 % of the games.

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Old
11-12-2013, 08:47 PM
  #150
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyYourTheDevils View Post
Well you would be wrong. That is literally one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this board. How would placing emphasis on an arbitrary, non-predictive factor like season length make any sense when when considering scoring pace? It doesn't. But predictably, you are grasping at straws to discredit Crosby.

Its laughable that you would advocate so strongly for using a smaller sample size, when for the past few years you have argued for the exact opposite methodology. You are the HF equivalent of FOX news.
You my friend have made no sense.

In 2012-13, he played 75 % of the team's possible games. There is a big difference between 75% and 50% (the amount of games he played in 2010-11).

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