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Old
07-19-2005, 01:11 PM
  #1
crossxcheck
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Draft Lottery

Is anyone else as stressed about this as I am?

We have a 4.2% chance of picking #1 (2 balls out of a 48 total). This means that guys like detroit only have a 2.1% chance and guys like columbus have a 6.25% chance. Obviously, with each following pick our chances increase (assuming we haven't been picked). That increased chance banks, however, on who is picked the one before (a team like columbus gets picked and 3 balls are taken out of the lottery).

I hope NMK doesn't delete this for fear of bad mojo.

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07-19-2005, 02:23 PM
  #2
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when is the draft anyway? have they set that date?

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Old
07-19-2005, 02:31 PM
  #3
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Columbus gets Crosby.

Nashville picks SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE RANGE OF NUMBERS 28th, 29th, and 30th (GD!!! )

Book it!


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Old
07-19-2005, 02:32 PM
  #4
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How are we picking at both 28 and 30?

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07-19-2005, 02:42 PM
  #5
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between 28th and 30th, i.e. either 28th, 29th, or 30th.

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Old
07-19-2005, 02:58 PM
  #6
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Technically, "between" 28th and 30th is 29th.

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Old
07-19-2005, 03:03 PM
  #7
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with the draft snaking, picking 25-30 isn't terrible. I mean, what's worse: a late 1st and early 2nd or a mid 1st and mid 2nd? Although wherever we pick, the hawks get our 2nd rounder.

I thought the draft lottery was slatted for Thursday to be announced Friday.


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Old
07-19-2005, 03:06 PM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vopatsrash
Columbus gets Crosby. Nashville picks between 28th and 30th. Book it!
if what you say becomes truth, a line of zherdev, crosby, and nash is scary!

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Old
07-19-2005, 03:17 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crossxcheck
with the draft snaking, picking 25-30 isn't terrible. I mean, what's worse: a late 1st and early 2nd or a mid 1st and mid 2nd? In some ways if we don't get 1-10 or so I don't care if we get 20 or 30.

I thought the draft lottery was slatted for Thursday to be announced Friday.
Actually its awful for us. Smokey pointed this out in another thread, but we traded our 2nd round pick this year in part of the Sullivan trade. A late round pick for us means we get bottom round picks for both of our first two selections (1st and 3rd round). Top 10 would be great for us, but realistically, I'm happy as long as we aren't drafting beyond 20. I figure we would be around the 16-24 mark if we played the season anyways, and still having Sully as an RFA was worth the 2nd for this year.

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Old
07-19-2005, 03:18 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crossxcheck
with the draft snaking, picking 25-30 isn't terrible. I mean, what's worse: a late 1st and early 2nd or a mid 1st and mid 2nd? Although wherever we pick, the hawks get our 2nd rounder.

I thought the draft lottery was slatted for Thursday to be announced Friday.

For us, it is terrible. If we pick late in the first round, it means that we would have been picking early in the second round (but won't because Chicago has our pick), and late in the 3rd round. At 25 overall, our first day haul will include the 25th overall pick and the ~85th overall pick. The best case scenerio sees us picking first overall. We would have the 1st pick and the ~61st pick in the draft. Just a shade better than drafting 25th/85th.

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Old
07-19-2005, 03:28 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
For us, it is terrible. If we pick late in the first round, it means that we would have been picking early in the second round (but won't because Chicago has our pick), and late in the 3rd round. At 25 overall, our first day haul will include the 25th overall pick and the ~85th overall pick. The best case scenerio sees us picking first overall. We would have the 1st pick and the ~61st pick in the draft. Just a shade better than drafting 25th/85th.
you're right. I just meant 25-30 isn't terrible for most teams. I realize it would suck for us. no doubt. I want to pick 1-5 so we can nab crosby, brule, kapitar, ryan, or o'marra.

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Old
07-19-2005, 03:57 PM
  #12
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Here's a thought on why they are having the draft lottery behind closed doors.

For instance, say Nashville gets the first pick. Not saying we wouldn't take him, but what if Chicago offers us back the 2nd round pick, plus another 2nd round pick, AND their number 4 first round pick. Do we turn it down? I dunno. I come here for the answers to those type of questions.

But those kind of offers could be made and they would also be behind the same closed doors. Does that make sense?

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Old
07-19-2005, 04:37 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quartermaster29
Here's a thought on why they are having the draft lottery behind closed doors.

For instance, say Nashville gets the first pick. Not saying we wouldn't take him, but what if Chicago offers us back the 2nd round pick, plus another 2nd round pick, AND their number 4 first round pick. Do we turn it down? I dunno. I come here for the answers to those type of questions.

But those kind of offers could be made and they would also be behind the same closed doors. Does that make sense?

We turn them down without even thinking about it. It would take a lot for Nashville to trade Crosby, in my opinion. And two second round picks are nice in order to move down in the draft only 3 spots. But those two seconds are very late in the second round and certainly don't make up the difference between Crosby and the prospect to be had at #4.

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Old
07-19-2005, 05:40 PM
  #14
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Rangers win it, we get #7.

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07-19-2005, 06:31 PM
  #15
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I'm stressed for sure about it. Winning the lottery changes hockey in Nashville forever. Tennessean, businesses and non-hockey fans can understand and repeat often the phrase "the next Wayne Gretzky". It substantially improves attendance and, I would guess, our cup chances.

All that being said, a top 10 would be great, a bottom 10 very bad, and the middle barely tolerable. I won't pretend to be a draft expert but my sense is there isn't a huge drop between #2 and #8. Any sense of that from anyone? Anze Kopitar, for instance, certainly sounds like a player we could smile about if we landed him as a consolation prize.

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Old
07-19-2005, 09:49 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quartermaster29
Here's a thought on why they are having the draft lottery behind closed doors.

For instance, say Nashville gets the first pick. Not saying we wouldn't take him, but what if Chicago offers us back the 2nd round pick, plus another 2nd round pick, AND their number 4 first round pick. Do we turn it down? I dunno. I come here for the answers to those type of questions.

But those kind of offers could be made and they would also be behind the same closed doors. Does that make sense?

man, do some research. you're not going to snag the crosby pick by tossing in a couple extra draft picks.

we're talking about sidney, not bing.

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Old
07-20-2005, 12:41 AM
  #17
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ahhh...bing crosby...he can skate.

heres to sid in cowboy boots

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07-20-2005, 01:00 AM
  #18
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ahhh...bing crosby...he can skate.

heres to sid in cowboy boots

Welcome back, ol' boy. The boards haven't been the same without your Arkhipov man-crushing

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Old
07-20-2005, 03:12 AM
  #19
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Totally nervous.

There are only 2 places I don't want us to pick. The number 2 pick or anything after 20. After 20 is obvious, but I don't want to pick at #2 knowing we were just thatclose to picking Crosby! I know we would still get a great player there, but it would just drive me mad knowing how close we were.

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Old
07-20-2005, 06:24 AM
  #20
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Any other year i'd offer that #1 pick up to the highest bidder.

But this year, when were trying to "re-launch" the game, Crosby is worth 3,000 extra season tickets and media attention that cant be bought.

He's the equivalent of Danica Patrick for the IRL. ....Sorry, been blitzed by IRL crud the past 2 weeks here in Nashville.

Anyone know of the two Philly studs are going back into the draft yet? They might be had in the top 10.

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Old
07-20-2005, 07:34 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nomorekids
Welcome back, ol' boy. The boards haven't been the same without your Arkhipov man-crushing
sure, don't even welcome me back, nmk!

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Old
07-20-2005, 09:55 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FangFingers
Any other year i'd offer that #1 pick up to the highest bidder.

But this year, when were trying to "re-launch" the game, Crosby is worth 3,000 extra season tickets and media attention that cant be bought.

He's the equivalent of Danica Patrick for the IRL. ....Sorry, been blitzed by IRL crud the past 2 weeks here in Nashville.

Anyone know of the two Philly studs are going back into the draft yet? They might be had in the top 10.
Both will sign with the Flyers. Bobby Clarke said he would give them the max. allowed to sign, and I think their willingness to play for the Flyers was shown when they both signed to play for their AHL affiliate (which won the Calder Cup).

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07-20-2005, 11:01 AM
  #23
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sure, don't even welcome me back, nmk!

you get no welcomes. you're a traitor.

"eh, to be honest, i just haven't really been following hockey that much lately"


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Old
07-20-2005, 11:02 AM
  #24
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Totally nervous.

There are only 2 places I don't want us to pick. The number 2 pick or anything after 20. After 20 is obvious, but I don't want to pick at #2 knowing we were just thatclose to picking Crosby! I know we would still get a great player there, but it would just drive me mad knowing how close we were.

I see where you're coming from, but Gilbert Brule or Benoit Pouliot would be a nice consolation prize

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Old
07-20-2005, 11:33 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nomorekids
you get no welcomes. you're a traitor.

"eh, to be honest, i just haven't really been following hockey that much lately"

who can blame someone for not following no news other than "we continue to meet" for months??

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