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russia economic crisis - will it affect KHL?

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Old
12-01-2013, 10:25 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Garl View Post
Yes, i am From Tatar nation, born and living in Russia. I am actually half russian half tatar but consider myself a tatar, because there's almost zero russian in my apperience))
The default meaning of the word "Russian" in the English language is actually closer to Russian "Rossiyanin", it's a deriviative of Russia (Rossiya). It may be used synonymously with "Russky" (a derivative of Rus') in many cases, and that's how it works for the Russian language too, but when it's used in the sense "ethnic Russian" using "ethnic Russian" is more preferable, I think. A lot of Russians who aren't good at English often don't even realize that and end up making awkward statements similar to Yakupov's "I'm Muslim, I'm not Russian".

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12-01-2013, 10:37 PM
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Bullcrap. Only reason you think it's doomed because people are unhappy with the current regime's pro-Russian attitude. If there's over half a million people marching peacefully on the streets against the president, then that is not a revolution. This is how the regime handled a peaceful demonstration: http://lb.ua/news/2013/11/30/243415_...azom_bili.html

Try getting your news from non-pro-Kreml sources for once in your life.
Another self-proclaimed expert. Sorry, but unlike you we can get news right from the Ukraine. Most news from Ukraine are in Russian language and Ukrainian isn't much different. So don't try to lecture us. You know nothing at all. Yanukovich isn't pro Russian in any way, even his opponents don't think so anymore. There wasn't very good relations between Ukraine and Russia for more than two years. Russia has nothing to do with current Ukraine situation and anybody who is not completely ignorant on the subject should know that. It's just battle for power between different clans in Ukraine.


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12-01-2013, 11:51 PM
  #78
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And who is your alternative?
There is no one on the scene right now who has the power to offer an alternative, which is the point of cracking down on potential rivals. Putin receives a lot of credit from the majority of voters for having established law and order, and provided the basis for normal economic activity, out of the near "Mad Max" style of lawlessness and chaos that he inherited. But now he is taking his mandate too far, and squelching any form of innovation and progress in the name of defending corruption. As long as corruption reigns throughout the economy, economic growth will be minimal. But from the microcosm of hockey, there's probably no effect at all.

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12-02-2013, 01:39 AM
  #79
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Bullcrap. Only reason you think it's doomed because people are unhappy with the current regime's pro-Russian attitude. If there's over half a million people marching peacefully on the streets against the president, then that is not a revolution. This is how the regime handled a peaceful demonstration: http://lb.ua/news/2013/11/30/243415_...azom_bili.html

Try getting your news from non-pro-Kreml sources for once in your life.
Jussi, you're hfboards veteran, and I respect your opinion but you're flat out wrong on that call.

Janukovich is not pro-russian. As I've said to Peter, Ukraine is divided into 2(or even 3 as he pointed out) parts. And ALL political leaders are almost by default very unpopular, because basically 1/2 of population dislike them becuase they are not from thir part of the country.

Janukovich happens to be popular with Eatern Ukraine, which is historically closer to Russia. But he is not pro-russian, if he was, he wouldn't even had the situation when he's going to some EU summits.

Also, the demonstration is far from peaceful. Ukraine is known for their violent demonstrations because well basically 2 parts of the country don't like each other.
The situation with EU is actually used by all anti-Janukovich forces to start civil disorder. For example one of the most active pro-EU protesters are ukrainian nationalists, even though EU is a globalist structure that is opressing nationalism and patriotism. It doesn't make any sense for nationalists to support globalists, but yet they do because they just don't like Janukovich because he is from the wrong part of the country.

As for their EU possibilites, as I've said, ukrainians expect EU to pay for new roads, new schools, new factories. But in reality Ukraine is a very big 60 million people country that is less economically developed than even Ireland, Portugal and Slovenia. And those countries are on bailouts. And their domestic economy is ruined by EU. And they have youth uneplyment of 50 to 70 percent, and those employed are usually on crappy parasitic jobs.
But those countries are small, Ukraine is 60 million people. The fact that EU even thinks about inviting Ukraine shows that EU now is only about politics and money control.

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12-02-2013, 03:03 AM
  #80
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Yanukovych is pro-himself and whatever will benefit his oligarch backers the most. He was initially pro-Russian, and has espoused pro-Russian rhetoric to gain Russian speaking votes, but if he was truly pro-Russian he would have signed up with the stupid 'Customs Union' already. Only the Communists are truly pro-Russian. Ukraine has dramatically cut down it's gas imports from Russia and Yanukovych/Azarov are doing everything they can to ween the country away from Russia because they know it's not in their best interests to be associated with Putin and the fruitless Russian economy. They're not stupid enough to want to be Belarus 2.0

Why didn't they sign with the EU then? Partly Russian pressure (immediate trade war would be bad for the conomy and bad for short term gains) and partly because EU demands required political reforms which would have hurt his current standing.

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12-02-2013, 03:12 AM
  #81
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As I've said to Peter, Ukraine is divided into 2(or even 3 as he pointed out) parts. And ALL political leaders are almost by default very unpopular, because basically 1/2 of population dislike them becuase they are not from thir part of the country.
Not necesarily true, Tymoshenko is from the east and has all her support in the west.

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Also, the demonstration is far from peaceful. Ukraine is known for their violent demonstrations because well basically 2 parts of the country don't like each other.
The situation with EU is actually used by all anti-Janukovich forces to start civil disorder. For example one of the most active pro-EU protesters are ukrainian nationalists, even though EU is a globalist structure that is opressing nationalism and patriotism. It doesn't make any sense for nationalists to support globalists, but yet they do because they just don't like Janukovich because he is from the wrong part of the country.
Ukraine is not known for violent demonstrations at all.

To blame the anti-government protesters for starting civil disorder is ridiculous. You realize that protesters were attacked mercilessly by government troops on saturday for no reason, right? You realize that 40 journalists have been assaults simply for being journalists, right?

Nationalists support EU free trade and association agreement, this isn't about membership. Nationalist support government reforms, anti corruption, and regime change. All would come with EU association.

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As for their EU possibilites, as I've said, ukrainians expect EU to pay for new roads, new schools, new factories. But in reality Ukraine is a very big 60 million people country that is less economically developed than even Ireland, Portugal and Slovenia. And those countries are on bailouts. And their domestic economy is ruined by EU. And they have youth uneplyment of 50 to 70 percent, and those employed are usually on crappy parasitic jobs.
But those countries are small, Ukraine is 60 million people. The fact that EU even thinks about inviting Ukraine shows that EU now is only about politics and money control.
Right now it's all about trade, and free trade would be great for both. The EU is already Ukraine's largest importer/exporter.

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12-02-2013, 03:21 AM
  #82
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Ukraine's poor performance is even more evident when you compare Ukraine to Belarus. Belarus has basically no natural resources, but it's GDP per capita is $15,592 while Ukraine, which has abundant natural resources, has a GDP per capita of only $7,600. That is only half of Belarus' economic output!

Ukraine's economic performance has been pitiful and it has been by far the biggest disappointment of the four big ex-Soviet states (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus).
I think this is best explained due to the economic disparity between rich and poor, and the criminals milking the country. Belarus doesn't have the oligarch boom anymore, it's set in stone. Ukraine is still the wild west.

also, belarus' gdp/capita is $6,685, but if you look at this chart, their economies are both on the same regional trajectory, but ukraine has always underperformed


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12-02-2013, 03:25 AM
  #83
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And who is your alternative?
there's no alternative and the credit for this may be given to the current regime. to consider a democratic change of power'd be naive or stupid. hence it's will be an epic coolapse when the regime falls, but i don't think it'll happen soon

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12-02-2013, 03:25 AM
  #84
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Right now there is an attempt to seize power by force and revolution in Kiev. If they succeed Ukraine will be even more doomed than it is now.
I completely disagree. Ukraine is only truly doomed on their current course of isolation and mafia politics. They need reform, capitalism, outside investment, trade, etc. None of this will happen as they drift into a banana republic.

The worst alternative for Ukraine would be to drift east, there is no future in Russia.

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12-02-2013, 03:38 AM
  #85
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I completely disagree. Ukraine is only truly doomed on their current course of isolation and mafia politics. They need reform, capitalism, outside investment, trade, etc. None of this will happen as they drift into a banana republic.

The worst alternative for Ukraine would be to drift east, there is no future in Russia.
yep, god bless you with your revolution. too bad that russian state treasury is like putin's personal purse which he can use whenever it pleases him i cringe at the thought about what was promised to yanukovich

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12-02-2013, 05:04 AM
  #86
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I think this is best explained due to the economic disparity between rich and poor, and the criminals milking the country. Belarus doesn't have the oligarch boom anymore, it's set in stone. Ukraine is still the wild west.
Uhhh... Ukraine never relied on Russian discounts, credits and trade preferences the way Lukashenka's regime did. That's basically it. And there wasn't much room for "oligarch boom" in Belarus in the first place, you can't grow influential business factions out of just potassium. I also don't really think that 20 years of authoritarian socialism somehow provide a better model than relatively open competition between various elites per se, it's more about the external factors and given circumstances. Belarus still is a really mismanaged country, the 2011 crisis showcased that well, it was just easier to conduct than Ukraine.

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12-02-2013, 05:17 AM
  #87
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If there's over half a million people marching peacefully
Half million, wow Never heard that number. But may be so...

I think there is a lot of misunderstanding in the West of what is happenning in Ukraine, mostly clouded by the beilef that the population wants into the EU and is ready .


1) The Ukrainian government is a master of playing Russia and the EU against each other with the goal getting more concessions. They have been playing this game with Russia for 20 years, and it's really, really getting old now...

2) The purchasing parity (!) GDP of Ukraine is more than 2 times less than that of the poorest EU member - Bulgaria, and 7 times less than the EU average. What Europe will be getting is an inefficient dinosour, 45 mill mouth to feed... I am not sure if the Euro leaders understand what they will be getting, and getting it soon: no Russian concessions to Ukraine mean that Ukraine will start asking EU to pool in almost right away...

3) There is no clearcut fight of good guys against the bad guys going on now: all sides are backed by some business elites with interests, obviously the Party of Rigions by Akhmetov, while the oppositional UDAR and Batkovschina - by Pinchuk and Kolomejsky.

4) Demonstrations from both sides are often "encouraged" by paying the participants. There were interviews online with babushkas paid by the Party of the Regions to march, and with the students from Lviv as well paid by UDAR.

5) My parents live on Moldova and I have to cross the Ukrainian border quite often. The Ukrainian customs is a farce. This is a big organization set up with a sole purpose to fleece the transit. Basically anybody who wants to smuggle a nuclear missle can do that through the back door after paying them off: their customs is a miniature of the country iteself, the way it functions. I remember I had such a nice experience with their cops once after they saw my train ticket and realized that I need to make a train in 4 hours: detention, "please take ofthe laces and the belt - so that you would not hang yourself", and it goes from there.


6) Other than obviously not-so-pure asspirations of the Russian leadership, Russia has assets to protect in Ukraine such as the Black Sea fleet (which will have to be moved if U joins NATO). It is not in the Russian interest to have a customs union with the country that has a free trade agreement with the EU. So all these attempts by Merkel and the company to present Russian "enormous presssure" as unjustified bullying and an interference into the internal affairs, blah, blah, is just smoke and the good old attempt the play the Euro russophobic card: any other country with interests and sufficient leverage would be doing that.



What I expect is that if Ukrain gets an association membership in the EU, Russia will start selling gas to them at EU prices, raise import taxes on goods (making them not competitive in the Russian market), Ukraine will go through crisis, the current government will fall,... and who will be paying for all of that? Ukraine's stretched hand that has been in the direction of Russia so far will be towards EU, and the EU taxpayers will be helping 45 mill population then... Which I personally would hate, because I live and pay my taxes in Sweden now. When Carl Bildt is asked by Brussel to pay Sweden's share of a bail-out package to Ukraine, I hope he chokes on his words about "brutala ryska trycket".


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12-02-2013, 05:25 AM
  #88
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"Peaceful protesters" in Kiev demanding "freedom and democracy":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=4yHiUKdVWeo

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12-02-2013, 05:31 AM
  #89
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The worst alternative for Ukraine would be to drift east, there is no future in Russia.
I actually agree (although personally I would like to see the customs between Russia and Ukrain disappear). But before Ukraine goes to EU it has to learn to work, suvirve on its one for 10-15 years, clean up its act, and you might be in ... in about 20 years.

Look at the grassroot level: there are very few people in Ukraine who would not immidiately engage in some shady dealings the moment they are in some position of power. 95% of the population suck in "you scretch my back and I scretch yours" with mother's milk.


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12-02-2013, 08:02 AM
  #90
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Jussi, you're hfboards veteran, and I respect your opinion but you're flat out wrong on that call.

Janukovich is not pro-russian. As I've said to Peter, Ukraine is divided into 2(or even 3 as he pointed out) parts. And ALL political leaders are almost by default very unpopular, because basically 1/2 of population dislike them becuase they are not from thir part of the country.

Janukovich happens to be popular with Eatern Ukraine, which is historically closer to Russia. But he is not pro-russian, if he was, he wouldn't even had the situation when he's going to some EU summits.

Also, the demonstration is far from peaceful. Ukraine is known for their violent demonstrations because well basically 2 parts of the country don't like each other.
The situation with EU is actually used by all anti-Janukovich forces to start civil disorder. For example one of the most active pro-EU protesters are ukrainian nationalists, even though EU is a globalist structure that is opressing nationalism and patriotism. It doesn't make any sense for nationalists to support globalists, but yet they do because they just don't like Janukovich because he is from the wrong part of the country.


As for their EU possibilites, as I've said, ukrainians expect EU to pay for new roads, new schools, new factories. But in reality Ukraine is a very big 60 million people country that is less economically developed than even Ireland, Portugal and Slovenia. And those countries are on bailouts. And their domestic economy is ruined by EU. And they have youth uneplyment of 50 to 70 percent, and those employed are usually on crappy parasitic jobs.
But those countries are small, Ukraine is 60 million people. The fact that EU even thinks about inviting Ukraine shows that EU now is only about politics and money control.
First of all I'm not going to even bother with yous view of EU which is just too crackpot.

Second, I've been reading about this from the Finnish hockey site jatkoaika.com, where a couple of posters who've visited Ukraine a number of times and have friends there and those friends have filled them in what's been happening there. They said the riots were basically initiated by government forces who intentionally began riling up the most volatile protesters. They also said the country basically consists of 4 regions even, separated geographically. So it is anything but a unified country. One poster who's visited Donetsk area a lot said his friends who define themselves as Ukrainian Ukrainians, are especially worried about where the country is headed. They feel the president in nothing but a corrupt puppet of Russia and also have issue with him not being able to speak Ukrainian Russian. They also said there were closer to 700K people marching.

Live stream from Ukraine for those interested: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=girrrlTQzbg&noredirect=1

Also, the Ukrainian unrest is not the topic of this thread and should be discussed more here: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/fo...play.php?f=160 Perhaps Sokil could open up a thread about this there?


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12-02-2013, 08:11 AM
  #91
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First of all I'm not going to even bother with yous view of EU which is just too crackpot.

Second, I've been reading about this from the Finnish hockey site jatkoaika.com, where a couple of posters who've visited Ukraine a number of times and have friends there and those friends have filled them in what's been happening there. They said the riots were basically initiated by government forces who intentionally began riling up the most volatile protesters. They also said the country basically consists of 4 regions even, separated geographically. So it is anything but a unified country. One poster who's visited Donetsk area a lot said his friends who define themselves as Ukrainian Ukrainians, are especially worried about where the country is headed. They feel the president in nothing but acorrupt puppet of Russia and also have issue with him not being able to speak Ukrainian Russian. They also said there were closer to 700K people marching.

Live stream from Ukraine for those interested: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=girrrlTQzbg&noredirect=1
so stupid he's anti-russian actually, stop it already

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12-02-2013, 08:17 AM
  #92
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First of all I'm not going to even bother with yous view of EU which is just too crackpot.

Second, I've been reading about this from the Finnish hockey site jatkoaika.com, where a couple of posters who've visited Ukraine a number of times and have friends there and those friends have filled them in what's been happening there. They said the riots were basically initiated by government forces who intentionally began riling up the most volatile protesters. They also said the country basically consists of 4 regions even, separated geographically. So it is anything but a unified country. One poster who's visited Donetsk area a lot said his friends who define themselves as Ukrainian Ukrainians, are especially worried about where the country is headed. They feel the president in nothing but a corrupt puppet of Russia and also have issue with him not being able to speak Ukrainian Russian. They also said there were closer to 700K people marching.
So you decided to counter one hyperbolical crackpot point of view by conveying another?

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12-02-2013, 08:17 AM
  #93
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so stupid he's anti-russian actually, stop it already
Hey, don't kill the messenger, those are the opinions of those people. Tell it to them.

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12-02-2013, 08:45 AM
  #94
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Hey, don't kill the messenger, those are the opinions of those people. Tell it to them.
hey, i can go outside and find some moron to question and then will post his opinions here as my arguments. the point is they elected this corrupted tool themselves and the most of ukrainians are anti-russian.
it's a little absurd to see this puppet bemoan the cost of natural gas from russia at every opportuinty and throwing timoshenko in the jail for dealing with putin regarding those contracts while at the same time being putin's puppet, don't you think?

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12-02-2013, 08:49 AM
  #95
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Jussi, you're hfboards veteran, and I respect your opinion but you're flat out wrong on that call.

Janukovich is not pro-russian. As I've said to Peter, Ukraine is divided into 2(or even 3 as he pointed out) parts. And ALL political leaders are almost by default very unpopular, because basically 1/2 of population dislike them becuase they are not from thir part of the country.

Janukovich happens to be popular with Eatern Ukraine, which is historically closer to Russia. But he is not pro-russian, if he was, he wouldn't even had the situation when he's going to some EU summits.

Also, the demonstration is far from peaceful. Ukraine is known for their violent demonstrations because well basically 2 parts of the country don't like each other.
The situation with EU is actually used by all anti-Janukovich forces to start civil disorder. For example one of the most active pro-EU protesters are ukrainian nationalists, even though EU is a globalist structure that is opressing nationalism and patriotism. It doesn't make any sense for nationalists to support globalists, but yet they do because they just don't like Janukovich because he is from the wrong part of the country.

As for their EU possibilites, as I've said, ukrainians expect EU to pay for new roads, new schools, new factories. But in reality Ukraine is a very big 60 million people country that is less economically developed than even Ireland, Portugal and Slovenia. And those countries are on bailouts. And their domestic economy is ruined by EU. And they have youth uneplyment of 50 to 70 percent, and those employed are usually on crappy parasitic jobs.
But those countries are small, Ukraine is 60 million people. The fact that EU even thinks about inviting Ukraine shows that EU now is only about politics and money control.
Excellent analysis! Very interesting to read.

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12-02-2013, 09:04 AM
  #96
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hey, i can go outside and find some moron to question and then will post his opinions here as my arguments. the point is they elected this corrupted tool themselves and the most of ukrainians are anti-russian.
it's a little absurd to see this puppet bemoan the cost of natural gas from russia at every opportuinty and throwing timoshenko in the jail for dealing with putin regarding those contracts while at the same time being putin's puppet, don't you think?
I thought only west-ukrainians were anti russian and that east ukrainians leaned more towards russia?

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12-02-2013, 09:23 AM
  #97
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I thought only west-ukrainians were anti russian and that east ukrainians leaned more towards russia?
hence most

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12-02-2013, 10:03 AM
  #98
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I completely disagree. Ukraine is only truly doomed on their current course of isolation and mafia politics. They need reform, capitalism, outside investment, trade, etc. None of this will happen as they drift into a banana republic.

The worst alternative for Ukraine would be to drift east, there is no future in Russia.
Oh, Sokil, you are gravely mistaken. You know I'm not pro-russian, but damn it man. You don't need outside investments and capitalism per se. You just need a bit of reform and strict and efficient judicial system.
We (Croatia) got to EU. During longest negotiations in history, our stupid elite helped EU elite to buy off (for a fist of Euros) or to destroy what little we had of industry and pretty much everything valuble we had. And now we are at their "mercy". And if you say that Ukrainian elite is that greedy/incompetant and what not, Ukraine will not do well in EU.

Your hate towards Russia sadly blinds you.

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12-02-2013, 10:35 AM
  #99
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Uhhh... Ukraine never relied on Russian discounts, credits and trade preferences the way Lukashenka's regime did. That's basically it. And there wasn't much room for "oligarch boom" in Belarus in the first place, you can't grow influential business factions out of just potassium. I also don't really think that 20 years of authoritarian socialism somehow provide a better model than relatively open competition between various elites per se, it's more about the external factors and given circumstances. Belarus still is a really mismanaged country, the 2011 crisis showcased that well, it was just easier to conduct than Ukraine.
Agreed
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I actually agree (although personally I would like to see the customs between Russia and Ukrain disappear). But before Ukraine goes to EU it has to learn to work, suvirve on its one for 10-15 years, clean up its act, and you might be in ... in about 20 years.

Look at the grassroot level: there are very few people in Ukraine who would not immidiately engage in some shady dealings the moment they are in some position of power. 95% of the population suck in "you scretch my back and I scretch yours" with mother's milk.
Totally agree on all points. No argument here.

I wouldn't be opposed to free trade with the CU, but so long as no other terms were attached. As it stands, they say that a free trade agreement with the EU would mean a no-go, and if I have to choose, I pick the richer market with 500 million people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SledgeHammer View Post
Oh, Sokil, you are gravely mistaken. You know I'm not pro-russian, but damn it man. You don't need outside investments and capitalism per se. You just need a bit of reform and strict and efficient judicial system.
We (Croatia) got to EU. During longest negotiations in history, our stupid elite helped EU elite to buy off (for a fist of Euros) or to destroy what little we had of industry and pretty much everything valuble we had. And now we are at their "mercy". And if you say that Ukrainian elite is that greedy/incompetant and what not, Ukraine will not do well in EU.

Your hate towards Russia sadly blinds you.
Wanting outside investment and capital makes me anti-Russian? Not connecting the points here. I don't think it's fair to say I'm blinded by Russian hatred, I'm in the center and can go hard on either side of the fence on a number of talking points.

Anyway...

Two of Ukraine's biggest issues are absolutely no foreign investment, and capital flight (Oligarchs who do run the country invest in Europe and have offshore accounts).

If privatization in the past is any indication, the current regime has sold off state assets for next to nothing to friends; during the 'Orange' era they re-did things and sold business for record highs.

If going to the EU means opening the market to a high bidding war for assets and money actually going into the state and reinvested in the country, then thats a million times better than the current situation.

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12-02-2013, 10:38 AM
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Peter25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SledgeHammer View Post
Oh, Sokil, you are gravely mistaken. You know I'm not pro-russian, but damn it man. You don't need outside investments and capitalism per se. You just need a bit of reform and strict and efficient judicial system.
We (Croatia) got to EU. During longest negotiations in history, our stupid elite helped EU elite to buy off (for a fist of Euros) or to destroy what little we had of industry and pretty much everything valuble we had. And now we are at their "mercy". And if you say that Ukrainian elite is that greedy/incompetant and what not, Ukraine will not do well in EU.

Your hate towards Russia sadly blinds you.
I studied how Croatia's economy has developed since it signed the association agreement with the EU in 2005.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm...pcode=tec00115

According to this Croatia's economy is now slightly smaller than it was in 2005 when it signed the association agreement with the EU. The association agreement with the EU has brought zero growth to Croatia's economy. Croatia is a small neighbor for wealthy countries such as Austria and Italy, which should drive up the Croatian economy. But instead of economic growth Croatia has experienced almost a decade of stagnation.

For Ukraine the future will be even more bleak if it signs this agreement. Ukraine's heavy industry will be completely annihilated. So will their aerospace industry. Who is going to buy their plane parts after Russia stops buying them? Certainly not EU. These companies will go bankrupt.

Right now Ukraine's GDP per capita is below China. Hopefully Ukraine will not start to resemble more like India in a few years.

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