HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Edmonton Oilers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

The Three Constants In Life: Death, Taxes and Oilers Draft Watch

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
03-11-2014, 06:54 PM
  #926
topchowda
Registered User
 
topchowda's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,705
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
You keep focusing on the one statistic. For me its the fact the he's NOT close to a PPG AND also a - player that has me concerned. If were developing him to be a great two way player and he's playing 30 minutes a night with top PP time shouldn't he be producing?? Doughty, Pietrangelo, Pronger, Etc.. all had either close PPG seasons or massive +/- in the case of Pietrangelo. Nurse has neither and while right now it's not concerning, saying something as stupid as he'd be our best NHL defenceman is ridiculous and HFFanboy talk. We will see how he does next year but we absolutely need Nurse to be a top pairing guy and if he doesn't come in and absolutely dominate I say send him back like St. Louis did with Pietrangelo.

For you OHL guys would you say Ekblad is ahead of Nurse or behind Nurse in development? His stats say he's the better defender but I haven't seen much of either this year.
Points and +/- are completely different stats. Nurse doesn't have to a PPG D either. At the same age, not many other top D weren't (Petro wasn't).
In the case of Doughty, a majority of his points could be PP. So he could score 2000 PP points, and his +/- doesn't go up (+/- and points arent correlative). Likewise, a D (lets say Ekblad) could play little PK time. So his +/- wont be lowered by that.

If you want to use +/- you have to put it into context. Youll have to see have to factor in quality of comp, EV points vs PP points, EV GF-GA ( go further by TOI), PK GA ,PK (TOI). And that is just for comparing to teammates. If you want to compare other D on other teams, its even harder

Ill trust what his coach and GM are saying about his play

Petro was only a +1 and was sub PPG. His big bump in +/- came on a new team that was stacked. His +/- was 6th amongst D


Last edited by topchowda: 03-11-2014 at 07:04 PM.
topchowda is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 06:55 PM
  #927
Musashi
Registered User
 
Musashi's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Alberta
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,134
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
None, but I don't need to watch a game to tell you that 21 points in 37 games since the beginning of december is dissapointing. On top of that you have the story about him being booed by Sault fans...
Well for someone who has always tried to be critical of him and wants to throw out words like regression maybe you should actually watch some games to try and verify your suspicions. Then maybe your opinion can be taken seriously instead of trying to cite a couple box numbers and make drastic conclusions from them.

I really like what I've seen from him this year. Sure the offensive numbers have cooled down but he's three times the defenseman he was last year and has been impressive. He is a lot smarter this year in all 3 zones and his leadership at a young age has really went a long way for a young team that everyone thought would come back down to earth. The standings and SSM having one of the lowest GAA really shows that. He is still pretty raw but he has a lot of swagger in his game and keeps trending in the right direction. My guess is that he should probably return to junior next year but should be deserving of some nhl experience next year before being returned.

I thought you would of learned about prematurely judging him with the trash you threw out about him around the draft but I guess another reality check was needed. Stop making yourself look silly.

Musashi is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 06:56 PM
  #928
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 7,176
vCash: 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by CurrenR View Post
How about comparing Luke Gazdic to Gordon? Plus/Minus does not show who is always the best defender.

Another better example is Shea Weber to Ryan Ellis on the Predators this season. Weber is a -16 compared to Ellis who is a +7. By that logic we can guess that Ryan Ellis is the best on the team defensively? The matter of the fact is you cannot judge someone's defensive play from Plus/Minus. Shea Weber plays top minutes against the toughest competition. Ellis does not. It is not nearly reliable enough to show who the better defender is.

Nurse has played the top competition all season. As dnicks17 mentioned its no surprise Ganly's plus/minus is better because he is playing the easier competition.
Luke Gazdic is a -7, Gordon is -11 hardly any indication of which is better when you consider the difference in minutes. I'm actually quite surprised by the Ryan Ellis stat. Maybe he is better then we give him credit for considering to get those pluses he had to be at 5x5. Alot of Weber points come on the PP also which would effect his +/-.

raab is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 06:59 PM
  #929
CupofOil
Registered User
 
CupofOil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Rock Bottom
Country: United States
Posts: 13,705
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
You keep focusing on the one statistic. For me its the fact the he's NOT close to a PPG AND also a - player that has me concerned. If were developing him to be a great two way player and he's playing 30 minutes a night with top PP time shouldn't he be producing?? Doughty, Pietrangelo, Pronger, Etc.. all had either close PPG seasons or massive +/- in the case of Pietrangelo. Nurse has neither and while right now it's not concerning, saying something as stupid as he'd be our best NHL defenceman is ridiculous and HFFanboy talk. We will see how he does next year but we absolutely need Nurse to be a top pairing guy and if he doesn't come in and absolutely dominate I say send him back like St. Louis did with Pietrangelo.

For you OHL guys would you say Ekblad is ahead of Nurse or behind Nurse in development? His stats say he's the better defender but I haven't seen much of either this year.
Well, you haven't watched Nurse so how can you possibly pass judgment based solely on a points stat? It's ridiculous.
I haven't seem him play either but I do know that he's the captain of that team and plays 30 minutes a night in all situations and for a guy who is known primarily as a shutdown D, his point totals really aren't that bad.

What I do agree with you on is that there are too many assumptions around here about his NHL readiness based on his preseason.
People need to keep in mind that the Oilers looked good and Joensuu looked like a world beater so preseason means very little in the grand scheme of things.

What I saw in Nurse was a kid who has a ton of raw potential but has a long ways to go to be considered NHL ready. I don't know how he has progressed this season, but I strongly feel that he needs to spend another year in junior. There's absolutely no reason to rush him to the NHL next season especially with Marincin already on the team, Klefbom ready to make the jump and possibly Ekblad as well. If they develop Nurse right, it could very well pay off big time because the potential is unlimited. Patience is the key with him.

CupofOil is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:01 PM
  #930
topchowda
Registered User
 
topchowda's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,705
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Well then who's he getting all the minuses against?
-3 against the super stacked Knights

topchowda is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:02 PM
  #931
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 7,176
vCash: 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
Points and +/- are completely different stats. Nurse doesn't have to a PPG D either. At the same age, not many other top D weren't (Petro wasn't).
Like in the case of Doughty, a majority of his points could be PP. So he could score 2000 PP points, and his +/- doesn't go up. Likewise Ekblad could play little PK time. So his +/- wont be lowered by that

If you want to use +/- you have to put it into context. Youll have to see have to factor in quality of comp, EV points vs PP points, EV GF-GA ( go further by TOI), PK GA ,PK (TOI). And that is just for comparing to teammates. If you want to compare other D on other teams, its even harder

Ill trust what his coach and GM are saying about his play

Petro was only a +1 and was sub PPG. His big bump in +/- came on a new team that was stacked. His +/- was 6th amongst D
Except for the two years prior when Pietrangelo was a +29, and a +40. Nurse is on a Team that is outscoring the opposition and is still a - how is that not a legitimate stat? And how is him having 32 points in 33 games and slowing down to 21 points in 37 games since december not regression? All while playing 30minutes a night. Sure the team could have slowed down but Nurse is one of the guys who's suppossed to be driving the bus. If the team slowed down it's partly on him.

raab is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:07 PM
  #932
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 7,176
vCash: 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Well, you haven't watched Nurse so how can you possibly pass judgment based solely on a points stat? It's ridiculous.
I haven't seem him play either but I do know that he's the captain of that team and plays 30 minutes a night in all situations and for a guy who is known primarily as a shutdown D, his point totals really aren't that bad.

What I do agree with you on is that there are too many assumptions around here about his NHL readiness based on his preseason.
People need to keep in mind that the Oilers looked good and Joensuu looked like a world beater so preseason means very little in the grand scheme of things.

What I saw in Nurse was a kid who has a ton of raw potential but has a long ways to go to be considered NHL ready. I don't know how he has progressed this season, but I strongly feel that he needs to spend another year in junior. There's absolutely no reason to rush him to the NHL next season especially with Marincin already on the team, Klefbom ready to make the jump and possibly Ekblad as well. If they develop Nurse right, it could very well pay off big time because the potential is unlimited. Patience is the key with him
.
Agreed, this whole thing started because someone chimed up that Nurse IS a proven NHL dman even though he's never played a single game.


Last edited by raab: 03-11-2014 at 07:17 PM.
raab is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:10 PM
  #933
dnicks17
Moderator
.
 
dnicks17's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 15,689
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Agreed, this whole thing started because someone chimed up that Nurse IS our best NHL dman even though he's never played a single game.
The poster said he was the team's best defenseman during the preseason, which he was.

He didn't say he is the team's best defenseman.

dnicks17 is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:11 PM
  #934
blueracer17
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Eau Claire, WI
Country: United States
Posts: 170
vCash: 500
Hate to do it, but the game is not on my GCL because it is broadcast on fox sports here. Anybody have a good quality stream? Thanks.

blueracer17 is online now  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:13 PM
  #935
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 7,176
vCash: 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushwick Bill View Post
Well for someone who has always tried to be critical of him and wants to throw out words like regression maybe you should actually watch some games to try and verify your suspicions. Then maybe your opinion can be taken seriously instead of trying to cite a couple box numbers and make drastic conclusions from them.

I really like what I've seen from him this year. Sure the offensive numbers have cooled down but he's three times the defenseman he was last year and has been impressive. He is a lot smarter this year in all 3 zones and his leadership at a young age has really went a long way for a young team that everyone thought would come back down to earth. The standings and SSM having one of the lowest GAA really shows that. He is still pretty raw but he has a lot of swagger in his game and keeps trending in the right direction. My guess is that he should probably return to junior next year but should be deserving of some nhl experience next year before being returned.I thought you would of learned about prematurely judging him with the trash you threw out about him around the draft but I guess another reality check was needed. Stop making yourself look silly.
Sure, I'm the one that needs the reality check when posters are saying he's a proven NHL dman. I agree with you on the bolded and I'm glad Nurse is developing better then planned, but the fact remains he would have been slaughtered on this team over an 82 game season. As I said lets re-evaluate in the fall and see where he is. Right now I would hope to see more offence from him or a better +/- showing that he can control the game at the junior level. He's not there yet if we want him to step in and have a Pietrangelo, Doughty, etc... type impact.

raab is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:16 PM
  #936
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 7,176
vCash: 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
The poster said he was the team's best defenseman during the preseason, which he was.

He didn't say he is the team's best defenseman.
"We already have Nurse in the system and proved last year that he could play at the NHL level as well. Do you take two rookies on the blueline?"

Sorry, I shouldn't say best dman. It was that he proved he could play at the NHL level which is false. He hasn't proven anything yet.

raab is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:20 PM
  #937
topchowda
Registered User
 
topchowda's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,705
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Except for the two years prior when Pietrangelo was a +29, and a +40. Nurse is on a Team that is outscoring the opposition and is still a - how is that not a legitimate stat? And how is him having 32 points in 33 games and slowing down to 21 points in 37 games since december not regression? All while playing 30minutes a night. Sure the team could have slowed down but Nurse is one of the guys who's suppossed to be driving the bus. If the team slowed down it's partly on him.
Regression to the norm maybe. Did anyone here really expect him to be a PPG D this season? He is a shutdown D. If he was a PPG D, he would be better than Ekblad, and possibly Jones. His current stat line is an improvement from last season, and that's just his offense.

I agree he should be back in Junior, barring an exceptional camp. But judging players on +/- is a fruitless endevour

topchowda is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:30 PM
  #938
raab
Where's the Hart?
 
raab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 7,176
vCash: 580
Quote:
Originally Posted by topchowda View Post
Regression to the norm maybe. Did anyone here really expect him to be a PPG D this season? He is a shutdown D. If he was a PPG D, he would be better than Ekblad, and possibly Jones. His current stat line is an improvement from last season, and that's just his offense.

I agree he should be back in Junior, barring an exceptional camp. But judging players on +/- is a fruitless endevour
In junior where some guys are head and shoulder above other players I don't think it is. For example Crosby was a +78 in his draft year, Kane was +42, Phaneuf was +28 in his draft year and +15 in his final year, Maata was +25 then a +9, Yandle was a +50, Jones +46. I'm trying to think of other examples beside the guys we talked about for D. But one thing is clear is most guys can usually hold a + or they score at a PPG pace. Obviously theres no one statistic that is the be all end all but I think there is a correlation to how NHL ready someone in junior is based on how good there +/- is.


Last edited by raab: 03-11-2014 at 07:38 PM.
raab is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:50 PM
  #939
Mikey71
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
None, but I don't need to watch a game to tell you that 21 points in 37 games since the beginning of december is dissapointing. On top of that you have the story about him being booed by Sault fans...
For the love of God, that BS story was put to bed long ago. He was not booed. The Soo powerplay was horrid for that stretch and it was what was being booed, not Nurse. He happened to be the guy going back in the Soo end to pick up the puck after it had been iced, but that is hardly a reason to suggest he specifically was the target.

He is also easily the best Soo defenceman and it isn't even close. He is also captain of a team that was not expected to finish in the top half of the west, let alone run away with their division. He gets every single tough assignment, every game.

Signed, someone who lives in the Soo and actually goes to the games and doesn't form opinions from boxscores...

Mikey71 is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 07:57 PM
  #940
40oz
..........
 
40oz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Country: Canada
Posts: 14,874
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikey71 View Post
For the love of God, that BS story was put to bed long ago. He was not booed. The Soo powerplay was horrid for that stretch and it was what was being booed, not Nurse. He happened to be the guy going back in the Soo end to pick up the puck after it had been iced, but that is hardly a reason to suggest he specifically was the target.

He is also easily the best Soo defenceman and it isn't even close. He is also captain of a team that was not expected to finish in the top half of the west, let alone run away with their division. He gets every single tough assignment, every game.

Signed, someone who lives in the Soo and actually goes to the games and doesn't form opinions from boxscores...
Okay fine, but what about his plus/minus?

40oz is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 08:02 PM
  #941
Lacaar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,423
vCash: 500
The only negative I can think of with nurse is Edmontons inability to draft and develop a top two d-man. We just can't do it.

Hoping Nurse is the exception but god our track record is so disgusting.

Lacaar is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 08:34 PM
  #942
Mikey71
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 40oz View Post
Okay fine, but what about his plus/minus?
Ah yes, the stat that is far and away the worst stat to judge anything. Lets look at some of the other Soo players and their +/-. Ganly is +33 and there is nobody on this planet that will suggest he is as good defensively as Nurse is. Gaudet is a good defensive center, but is not 5 times as good as McCann is. I could go on and on with the Soo roster since there are more examples. The only - that you could say makes sense is Sergei Tolchinsky, as he is horrible defensively as he sacrifices his defensive responsibilities to get more points.

There isn't one defenseman in Edmonton that a fan can feel good about being a mentor for the upcoming crop of D prospects in Marincin, Klefbom, Nurse and possibly Ekblad. For that reason, I hope Nurse spends another season in the Soo, not because I don't think he would be ready. None of these kids will be as ready as they have to be to handle the burden of play they will be forced to due to mismanagement in Edmonton. Hell, just keep watching this game tonight in Minnesota and tell me who would be good for any of the kids...

Mikey71 is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 10:04 PM
  #943
Seachd
Registered User
 
Seachd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: The Fail
Posts: 13,390
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Edit: And if he can't shutdown a 16 year old Mcdavid whats he going to look like vs Crosby in his prime? Or Kopitar, Thornton, Getzlaf, etc...
This has got to be one of the weirdest things I've read on here in a long time.

Seachd is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 10:07 PM
  #944
armandh01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 2,018
vCash: 500
I think Florida may draft higher than us.

armandh01 is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 10:08 PM
  #945
Soundwave
Moderator
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 24,209
vCash: 500
I think we'll be picking 4th or 5th honestly, so I'm not getting worked over not tanking properly. We're too talented to be drafting this high again as is. That's fine, the pick will probably be traded ... this group needs to learn how to win games anyway, there's no point in getting top pick after top pick if you're ruining the development/confidence of your previous picks in the process.

Soundwave is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 11:08 PM
  #946
dustrock
Too Legit To Quit
 
dustrock's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,879
vCash: 500
Draisaitl 1&1 and+1in a 6-3 loss.

dustrock is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 11:12 PM
  #947
Lindo
Registered User
 
Lindo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,529
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
I think we'll be picking 4th or 5th honestly, so I'm not getting worked over not tanking properly. We're too talented to be drafting this high again as is. That's fine, the pick will probably be traded ... this group needs to learn how to win games anyway, there's no point in getting top pick after top pick if you're ruining the development/confidence of your previous picks in the process.
I think MacT goes for one of the centers. If no one was willing to provide value for the 7th overall pick last year, I doubt they'd things change for a top 5 pick. MacT is going to want a top D or C and I doubt that happens.

Bennett or Draisaitl is my guess to who Edmonton winds up with.

Lindo is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 11:14 PM
  #948
armandh01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 2,018
vCash: 500
4th max and or only competition is Florida.

armandh01 is offline  
Old
03-11-2014, 11:51 PM
  #949
DousedInOil
Registered User
 
DousedInOil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Katy <3
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,425
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
"We already have Nurse in the system and proved last year that he could play at the NHL level as well. Do you take two rookies on the blueline?"

Sorry, I shouldn't say best dman. It was that he proved he could play at the NHL level which is false. He hasn't proven anything yet.
Someone piss in your cereal or something? Way to completely miss the point and start a completely useless argument about the plus/minus stat.

I never said that Nurse would light up the league. He proved that he could play against NHLers during the pre-season. He looked better than all the NHL dmen that we currently have in the lineup. If you want to argue semantics go ahead but he didn't look out of place.

DousedInOil is online now  
Old
03-12-2014, 12:04 AM
  #950
Soundwave
Moderator
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 24,209
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lindo View Post
I think MacT goes for one of the centers. If no one was willing to provide value for the 7th overall pick last year, I doubt they'd things change for a top 5 pick. MacT is going to want a top D or C and I doubt that happens.

Bennett or Draisaitl is my guess to who Edmonton winds up with.
They will package the pick (probably with Gagner) for Tyler Myers IMO if it's not one of the top 3. Buffalo will bite as they're probably going to get Ekblad 1st overall anyway. I can see something like that happening.

Soundwave is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:05 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.