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12-31-2013, 10:26 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Even out the percentages (25 and 25, 50 and 50, whatever), as long as it's not a certainty these guys will reach their potential - after all, Vankiller Whale believes Rick Nash never reached his - it's tough to get a valuable contribution out of one dimensional players if they are not elite in that one area.

Nevermind getting a valuable contribution at an advantageous cap hit, when we're talking about a player whose point totals will likely overstate his significance to his team..
Yes. That's what I was getting at earlier. If you have two one dimensional players, one offensive and one defensive, providing equivalent value to a team, the offensive player will get paid more in my opinion. Teams still tend to pay for goals/assists, rightly or wrongly (different debate).

I'm also not here to say I think Horvat will be Bergeron. I'm more just lightly taking issue with the firmness sometimes on display with prospects. They're very difficult to project. You can literally read through the first round scouting reports for every draft and find a dozen or more "are you for real?!" scouting reports on players.

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12-31-2013, 10:31 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
My odds were simply meant to illustrate that it's not a simple case of "type", which seems to be where you tend to go in this discussion.

I think if the two become equivalently valued in the league, I'd prefer a player of Horvat's type because of the way the game is called in the post-season. But I don't disagree with your sentiment that it's all or nothing for Gillis on that pick, but that was the case regardless after he traded Cory Schneider for it.

If Horvat turns into Bergeron, I don't see how anyone could be unhappy with that pick. I'd be ecstatic. Maybe I just like Bergeron more than some people do...
If Horvat turns into Bergeron I'd absolutely be ecstatic. But I don't think he will. He might, but probably won't(again, imo). He simply wasn't the BPA, and the only time I'd be okay passing on the BPA is if the player we're taking has significantly more upside that we'd believe he can reach.

I don't see Horvat as having more upside than guys like Nichushkin, Domi, Mantha, etc. If I'm wrong, then again, I'd gladly eat crow.

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12-31-2013, 10:36 AM
  #78
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You're still using "upside" as a ceiling without qualifying the odds of getting there, in my opinion. My personal reading is that you're conflating "upside" with "traditional offensive skillset".

I can see your argument on Nisch, but Domi? Really? I think you're out to lunch on that one.

I'd take David Backes over Patrick Sharp normally. Maybe not on the Canucks as currently constructed, but if I was building a hockey club? Absolutely. Then again, I'd take Backes over a lot of players...

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12-31-2013, 10:48 AM
  #79
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One more general point: it may be true that you can find a two-way type player in the later rounds more often than you can find a player with a higher offensive skillset. I don't know if that's true, but I allow that it seems like a reasonable guess to me.

I don't think that's mutually exclusive to what you select with your first pick, though. If you think you have David Backes sitting there with a #7, or #8, or #9 pick, you absolutely take him without question. After the first 3 or 4 picks in the draft, it becomes more of a qualified gamble. That would be a great result with a pick in the back half of the Top 10.

And if you can get another one later, good! Two David Backes types are better than one.

I know VWK takes a lot of flak for his views on this, but I do appreciate that the views are expressed clearly. This sort of discussion is why it's fun to follow prospects.

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12-31-2013, 11:01 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
You're still using "upside" as a ceiling without qualifying the odds of getting there, in my opinion. My personal reading is that you're conflating "upside" with "traditional offensive skillset".

I can see your argument on Nisch, but Domi? Really? I think you're out to lunch on that one.

I'd take David Backes over Patrick Sharp normally. Maybe not on the Canucks as currently constructed, but if I was building a hockey club? Absolutely. Then again, I'd take Backes over a lot of players...
When I say upside I am indeed talking about offensive upside, as to me being potentially a great faceoff guy or PKer is not something you should value over higher offensive talent when drafting.

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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
One more general point: it may be true that you can find a two-way type player in the later rounds more often than you can find a player with a higher offensive skillset. I don't know if that's true, but I allow that it seems like a reasonable guess to me.

I don't think that's mutually exclusive to what you select with your first pick, though. If you think you have David Backes sitting there with a #7, or #8, or #9 pick, you absolutely take him without question. After the first 3 or 4 picks in the draft, it becomes more of a qualified gamble. That would be a great result with a pick in the back half of the Top 10.

And if you can get another one later, good! Two David Backes types are better than one.

I know VWK takes a lot of flak for his views on this, but I do appreciate that the views are expressed clearly. This sort of discussion is why it's fun to follow prospects.
I don't think Horvat's offensive talent(or size/physicality) makes him a safe bet to become a Backes type. Someone like Monahan I'd put as a safe bet to be a ~65 point two way centre, with the potential to be a Toews/Kopitar type player.

Whereas I think Horvat is more a safe bet to become a Mike fisher type player, with the potential to be a Bergeron type.

I have nothing against two-way players, as long as they have the offense to back it up and make it worthwhile drafting them highly. I just don't see that with Horvat.

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12-31-2013, 11:07 AM
  #81
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I don't think Toews is that much different than Bergeron, except for the Power Play he's on with Patrick Kane. Just my opinion, of course.

I don't think a couple inches and probably 10 pounds is going to make the different when it comes to being David Backes. Horvat is strong on his skates. He doesn't need to hit, just be a guy that can get to the front of the net and use his hands to score dirty goals from the net front. I don't think that's a stretch at all when I watch him. Backes isn't a guy with a lot of "offensive skills". He's a north/south player who scores through hard work and a hard wrist shot. That's about it.

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12-31-2013, 11:15 AM
  #82
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I don't think Toews is that much different than Bergeron, except for the Power Play he's on with Patrick Kane. Just my opinion, of course.

I don't think a couple inches and probably 10 pounds is going to make the different when it comes to being David Backes. Horvat is strong on his skates. He doesn't need to hit, just be a guy that can get to the front of the net and use his hands to score dirty goals from the net front. I don't think that's a stretch at all when I watch him. Backes isn't a guy with a lot of "offensive skills". He's a north/south player who scores through hard work and a hard wrist shot. That's about it.
Backes would look so good in a Canucks uniform. If Gillis went for a $3.5 mill offersheet at the time, maybe it could have been done.

Then we would actually have Hodgson and Backes.

It's funny how one potential player could change the dynamic of your team so much.

We still haven't found a consistent power-forward, but hindsight is 20/20. Just very interesting nonetheless.

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12-31-2013, 11:18 AM
  #83
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Bergeron's scored .52 ES PPG over the past three seasons, Toews at a .74 ES PPG. That equates to an 18 point difference over 82 games, without accounting for the PP.

Backes does use his size/physicality to generate offense though. I agree overall his offensive game is nothing special, but without his size and ability to outwork players in front of the net he'd be less effective offensively. If Horvat were 6'3, 230 pounds, and played like a power forward, then I'd be a lot more comfortable in hoping his offense will translate as well.

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12-31-2013, 11:19 AM
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By the way, I don't get this continued insistence that there's no offense there with Horvat. He has 44 points in 28 games. That's a better scoring rate than Eric Staal in his third year of junior. It's more than Mike Richards did in juniors. Considerably more than someone like Dustin Brown did.

In his third season he's scoring at 1.57 PPG to Perry's 1.71 and Perry is a 50 goal scorer in the NHL.

Considering he's something of a late bloomer, I actually think Horvat tracks well to be a better offensive player than scouting reports indicated he would be. We're talking about a player who took a lot of defensive zone faceoffs. Basically whenever he's not with Domi it's because they need someone to take the tough offensive player match-ups in the Knight's dzone. He absolutely brutalized McDavid about 6 weeks ago in a head-to-head match-up.

Pronman watched him this year and listed his hands, vision, and skating all as "plus" assets. If you remove the type of game he plays and look at that in a vacuum, it doesn't scream "defensive center" to me.


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12-31-2013, 11:19 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I have nothing against two-way players, as long as they have the offense to back it up and make it worthwhile drafting them highly. I just don't see that with Horvat.
Good thing he's been scoring over PPG while shouldering the tough defensive minutes in London then. And improving from his previous point totals.

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12-31-2013, 11:26 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Bergeron's scored .52 ES PPG over the past three seasons, Toews at a .74 ES PPG. That equates to an 18 point difference over 82 games, without accounting for the PP.
I'm just speaking to how they play, though I do think Bergeron's injuries have taken something of a toll on his play. I think if you had Bergeron on the Hawks with their more primarily offensive play drivers (Sharp, Hossa, Keith, Kane) and put Toews with Marchand and the other secondary Bruins players, you'd probably see something of a reversal there. I appreciate that it's a debatable point.

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Backes does use his size/physicality to generate offense though. I agree overall his offensive game is nothing special, but without his size and ability to outwork players in front of the net he'd be less effective offensively. If Horvat were 6'3, 230 pounds, and played like a power forward, then I'd be a lot more comfortable in hoping his offense will translate as well.
Right, but Horvat is built similarly. If he ends up at 6' 215-220 pounds, he won't have any issues bullying his way around the slot in my opinion. Horvat also skates better than he's been given credit for.

The point is a project like that isn't a big reach in comparison to saying Nisch could be Rick Nash only realize his potential better and become a Top 3 scoring forward in the Western Conference...

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12-31-2013, 11:32 AM
  #87
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By the way, I don't get this continued insistence that there's no offense there with Horvat. He has 44 points in 28 games. That's a better scoring rate than Eric Staal in his third year of junior. It's more than Mike Richards did in juniors. Considerably more than someone like Dustin Brown did.

In his third season he's scoring at 1.57 PPG to Perry's 1.71 and Perry is a 50 goal scorer in the NHL.

Considering he's something of a late bloomer, I actually think Horvat tracks well to be a better offensive player than scouting reports indicated he would be. We're talking about a player who took a lot of defensive zone faceoffs. Basically whenever he's not with Domi it's because they need someone to take the tough offensive player match-ups in the Knight's dzone. He absolutely brutalized McDavid about 6 weeks ago in a head-to-head match-up.

Pronman watched him this year and listed his hands, vision, and skating all as "plus" assets. If you remove the type of game he plays and look at that in a vacuum, it doesn't scream "defensive center" to me.
I'm not saying he has "no" offense, I'm saying he doesn't have enough offense.

Now admittedly I haven't seen much of him this season. Most of my viewings were from last year, and this year's WJC. If he has blossomed into a high end offensive player then great, but I'm definitely not sold based on what I've seen so far.

Numbers don't always tell the whole story. Guys like Bolland, or even our very own Dane Fox have put up fantastic numbers in juniors. That doesn't mean they were or are seen to have high end offensive potential at the NHL level.

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12-31-2013, 11:37 AM
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I'm just speaking to how they play, though I do think Bergeron's injuries have taken something of a toll on his play. I think if you had Bergeron on the Hawks with their more primarily offensive play drivers (Sharp, Hossa, Keith, Kane) and put Toews with Marchand and the other secondary Bruins players, you'd probably see something of a reversal there. I appreciate that it's a debatable point.



Right, but Horvat is built similarly. If he ends up at 6' 215-220 pounds, he won't have any issues bullying his way around the slot in my opinion. Horvat also skates better than he's been given credit for.

The point is a project like that isn't a big reach in comparison to saying Nisch could be Rick Nash only realize his potential better and become a Top 3 scoring forward in the Western Conference...
You're off. Toews is a lot more skilled.

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12-31-2013, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I'm not saying he has "no" offense, I'm saying he doesn't have enough offense.

Now admittedly I haven't seen much of him this season. Most of my viewings were from last year, and this year's WJC. If he has blossomed into a high end offensive player then great, but I'm definitely not sold based on what I've seen so far.

Numbers don't always tell the whole story. Guys like Bolland, or even our very own Dane Fox have put up fantastic numbers in juniors. That doesn't mean they were or are seen to have high end offensive potential at the NHL level.
Fox is an overager... and Bolland? Here's his post-draft year: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/l...008142005.html

Producing the numbers Horvat is at 18 is a special thing and certainly should never be compared to a 20 year old putting up great numbers or to Bolland being the 4th highest scorer (yet still not reaching the numbers Horvat is on pace for) on a powerhouse team.

Are your even trying to have an honest discussion here?

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12-31-2013, 11:44 AM
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Besides, you're dismissing his numbers and saying you haven't watched him play this year but then how in the world can you say with such certainty that he doesn't have enough offensive upside? So there's really nothing Horvat could do right now to persuade you that he has offensive upside. This is just a worthy thread if there ever was one.

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12-31-2013, 11:48 AM
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Saying Domi is the better prospect at this point shows the huge flaw in analysis.

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12-31-2013, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
I'm just speaking to how they play, though I do think Bergeron's injuries have taken something of a toll on his play. I think if you had Bergeron on the Hawks with their more primarily offensive play drivers (Sharp, Hossa, Keith, Kane) and put Toews with Marchand and the other secondary Bruins players, you'd probably see something of a reversal there. I appreciate that it's a debatable point.
Toews doesn't play with Kane at ES. He plays with Hossa and either Saad/Bickell/Sharp depending on who's hot. Is there really that much of a difference between them and Marchand/Iginla/Eriksson/Seguin/Jagr(all of whom I believe were Bergeron's linemates over the past three years) that explains the almost 20 point difference solely in ES production?

Even without looking at the points I think Toews is clearly the better player offensively.

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Right, but Horvat is built similarly. If he ends up at 6' 215-220 pounds, he won't have any issues bullying his way around the slot in my opinion. Horvat also skates better than he's been given credit for.

The point is a project like that isn't a big reach in comparison to saying Nisch could be Rick Nash only realize his potential better and become a Top 3 scoring forward in the Western Conference...
If Horvat puts on another 10-20 pounds his speed/skating might suffer as a result(look at what happened to Lapierre after he bulked up). Even then, he is simply no where close to as big or mean or physical as Backes is. It's not the game he plays.

Why top-3 scorer in the Western conference? Currently there are 8 WC players on pace for 80 points(just by looking at the first page on NHL.com) and a good number more that are close enough to be only a matter of semantics.

I know you're going to point to 2011-2012 in which there were only like 3 guys in the WC on pace for 80+, but that seems like an anomaly to me. The year before there were 12 guys at or almost on pace for 80 points. I think Nichushkin's potential is absolutely within range of being a top-10 scorer in the West.

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12-31-2013, 11:53 AM
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Horvat has been very good today at dishing the puck to the slot from the side/end boards. Every pass seems to end up right on the tape.

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12-31-2013, 11:58 AM
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I'm not saying he has "no" offense, I'm saying he doesn't have enough offense.

Now admittedly I haven't seen much of him this season. Most of my viewings were from last year, and this year's WJC. If he has blossomed into a high end offensive player then great, but I'm definitely not sold based on what I've seen so far.

Numbers don't always tell the whole story. Guys like Bolland, or even our very own Dane Fox have put up fantastic numbers in juniors. That doesn't mean they were or are seen to have high end offensive potential at the NHL level.
You should watch him play this season then. He's improved offensively while still shouldering the defensive burden for London, allowing Domi to have easier minutes.

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12-31-2013, 12:02 PM
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I don't want to get sidetracked into a Bergeron/Toews debate, but I'll point out that Toews spends 52% of his 5v5 time on ice this year with Kane, 62.2% with Hossa, and 29% with Sharp. Those are his top 3 linemates. Hjalmarsson and Keith are the top two defenders. He has a 20% total start rate in the D Zone.

Bergeron starts 35% of his total starts in the defensive zone (these numbers include neutral zone starts). He faces competition that is a shade easier than Toews, though almost indistinguishable, and his most typical linemates are Eriksson, Marchand, Smith, Chara, and Boychuk this season, and he was saddled with an aging Jagr 85% of the time last season.

I'm not saying he's as good as Toews after the injuries, but I'm saying that situation/use makes a difference in how players are perceived. If you reversed their teams, I think you'd see a point swing. Not the full 18 points, but a goodly chunk, even if it was just from Patrick Kane.

And okay. If you think that's Nisch's upside, fair enough. That seems very optimistic to me, but who knows. I do think that some of the comparisons I offered in their third year of juniors probably make your worries about his offense seem a bit overstated, however. If anything, how Horvat generates offense is more likely to translate to the NHLer than a lot of "skilled" players.

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12-31-2013, 12:02 PM
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Fox is an overager... and Bolland? Here's his post-draft year: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/l...008142005.html

Producing the numbers Horvat is at 18 is a special thing and certainly should never be compared to a 20 year old putting up great numbers or to Bolland being the 4th highest scorer (yet still not reaching the numbers Horvat is on pace for) on a powerhouse team.

Are your even trying to have an honest discussion here?
I quite obviously was talking about Bollands 2.2 PPG season the following year.

But if you want to look at 18-year olds than Legwand put up 1.78 PPG, Stephen Weiss 1.4 PPG, Gilbert Brule put up 1.41 PPG, James Shepphard put up 1.71 PPG, Bryan Little put up 1.88 PPG, etc.

Putting up big numbers in junior does not guarantee they will translate to the NHL.

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12-31-2013, 12:06 PM
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I quite obviously was talking about Bollands 2.2 PPG season the following year.

But if you want to look at 18-year olds than Legwand put up 1.78 PPG, Stephen Weiss 1.4 PPG, Gilbert Brule put up 1.41 PPG, James Shepphard put up 1.71 PPG, Bryan Little put up 1.88 PPG, etc.

Putting up big numbers in junior does not guarantee they will translate to the NHL.
Legwand was also drafted as a big scorer rather than a two-way player. He developed into more of a two-way player because he never became that high-end offensive player he was expected to be.

I don't know how any of Weiss (one-way scorer, undersized), Brule (undersized), Sheppard (one-way scorer) or Little (undersized) compare to Horvat in any way... maybe at least find similar players?

Besides, no one is saying that junior offense necessarily projects to the NHL 100% of the time but it certainly projects better than when one doesn't score in junior. Really, you're not making much of a case against Horvat as against all CHL players...


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12-31-2013, 12:06 PM
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I quite obviously was talking about Bollands 2.2 PPG season the following year.

But if you want to look at 18-year olds than Legwand put up 1.78 PPG, Stephen Weiss 1.4 PPG, Gilbert Brule put up 1.41 PPG, James Shepphard put up 1.71 PPG, Bryan Little put up 1.88 PPG, etc.

Putting up big numbers in junior does not guarantee they will translate to the NHL.
Of course it doesn't, but the entire reason that discussion is happening is because you intimated there isn't enough offense there to project to NHL offense, when plainly there are similar players who have had similar offensive outputs in their third year/post-draft year of junior hockey and then went on to be very good NHLers that the Canucks would love to have. That's all.

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12-31-2013, 12:08 PM
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You should watch him play this season then. He's improved offensively while still shouldering the defensive burden for London, allowing Domi to have easier minutes.
I know I should, but unfortunately I don't have as much time this year as I did last year. I'm relying on the World Juniors, given I'm on break now.

Although to be honest it looks like Domi's actually done better without Horvat there, based on stat sheet scouting.

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12-31-2013, 12:10 PM
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Although to be honest it looks like Domi's actually done better without Horvat there, based on stat sheet scouting.
Not really. He just finally broke out in December after stinking it up the two months before. Before Horvat left he had 9 points in 3 games or something like that.

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