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David Desharnais fights back!

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Old
01-09-2014, 11:41 AM
  #301
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyclones Rock View Post
Didn't answer the question. Would you bet $5,000 on DD having less than a 41 point season?

If you can't acknowledge that the 19 game 1 assist stretch was a statistically anomaly, then

I would never suggest that the 20 points in 23 games is a pace which should be taken to be his expected long term production.
It's not anomaly...it happened last year...

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01-09-2014, 11:48 AM
  #302
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This team will never go anywhere with DD at center, way too one dimensional and easy to know off the puck.

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01-09-2014, 11:51 AM
  #303
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Desharnais opportunity cost as a top PP option and true go to offensive center is like a 60+ point pace. DD's opportunity cost as a frequent PP option(overall) and easier minutes ES producer is about 40 points. Again, a distinction.
Where are you getting this 60+ point pace from?

2010-2011: On pace for 42 pts
2011-2012: Had 60 pts
2012-2013: On pace for 48 pts
2013-2014: On pace for 40 pts

It looks much more like he's a 50pt player than a 60pt player

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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Now, as for Plekanec playing easier minutes. I don't get it. From a team perspective that makes zero sense. Plekanec is a two-way center, one of the best in the game yet you'll put him in a role where he only needs to use 1 dimension? What's the point? Does Bergeron play exploitation role? Toews? Nope, that's why they are considered 2-way players. If you shelter a player, you essentially remove the load on 1 dimension. If you put Plekanec in DD's role it would be wrong to call Plekanec our 2-way center as he'd only plays 1 dimension. By the same token, that's why it's a well known fact DD is not a 2-way center.
I covered this in another post but I'd just point out, the difference is Toews, Bergeron still get lots of offensive opportunties. The problem is Desharnais is the main offensive line and gets as many offensive opportunities as possible. Chicago/Boston don't give them all to 1 line they split it amongst their lines which is exactly what we should be doing.

When you talk about removing 1 dimension that's exactly what we've done, we've removed the offensive dimension.

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01-09-2014, 12:06 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by beaverBFP View Post
This team will never go anywhere with DD at center, way too one dimensional and easy to know off the puck.
I have never heard this one on this board…...


Maybe another 20 threads about DD will be needed.

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01-09-2014, 12:06 PM
  #305
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You can't measure his PP production over a subset of the games and then use the Lineamates over the whole season. You have to use the same time frame or it's meaningless. So in those 43 minutes where he hasn't produced, who has he played with? Because my guess is it's no longer mostly Subban/Markov.

Plekanec produces a point for every 8.4 min of time with Subban on the PP. Desharnais produces a point for every 10.4 min of time with Subban on the PP.
While I agree with you when Subban plays 80% of the PP, it's significant enough to draw a conclusion that Plekanec prob plays with him.

Now, if you have a way to check last 20 games or so, that would be ideal but unfortunately I got nothing so I'm open to feedback.

Where did you get those numbers if you don't even know how often he played with Subban on the PP??

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01-09-2014, 12:17 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
But guys like Bourque struggling is in part because DD is getting those exploitation minutes. By giving all those easy minutes to DD it leaves less easy minutes for guys like Bourque, and a lot more harder minutes.
Bourque's Corsi Rel QoC is actually worse than Desharnais. Of course, his offensive zone starts are less. The advanced stats everyone uses for DD seem to indicate Bourque isn't suffering 5 on 5. His PP TOI/G is 1:40. After all this he's -4 with 7 points in 33 games. Not even close to being productive.

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Nobody wants Plekanec to be used in Desharnais's role, they don't want anyone on the team to have Desharnais's role. DD's role should be split up amongst the 3 centers. Give Plekanec some easier minutes, he'll produce as well/better than DD does with the same minutes and he'll be better in his harder minutes since his total work load is easier is now easier and he has the extra confidence because he's producing more.

Since Desharnais can't pick up any defensive slack, his role is simply reduced. He'll still get sheltered he just won't be the go to offensive line all the time.

The lack of quality wingers is an issue, which is why it makes little sense to stick the 2 best on the same line. You even seem to acknowledge that with wanting to move Gallagher off DD's line now that Galchenyuk is injured.
Plekanec played over 22 minutes yesterday with no overtime. In cases like this, you want to give him what, 25-27 minutes? If we're talking about +- a couple shifts, by all means but in the grand scheme Plekanec is used everywhere. It is more likely Eller who would get the couple of shifts extra. I feel Eller/DD should get similar ice time per game.

As I said, Plekanec had 2 of our 'top 6 wingers' with galchenyuk and gionta on his line which is 'acceptable'. Now, given Galchenyuk's injury unless briere can pass as a top 6 forward Gallagher should be removed from DD's line or we should acquire a legit top 6 winger. So, despite me called a 'DD fanboy'(lol) I just have a different opinion on maximizing the odds of success. With galchenyuk gone and assumption briere is a no show, it would be best for the team if Gallagher was removed and prust took his spot.

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01-09-2014, 12:25 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
While I agree with you when Subban plays 80% of the PP, it's significant enough to draw a conclusion that Plekanec prob plays with him.

Now, if you have a way to check last 20 games or so, that would be ideal but unfortunately I got nothing so I'm open to feedback.

Where did you get those numbers if you don't even know how often he played with Subban on the PP??
Since Plekanec's PP time has been greatly reduced, even if he now plays exclusively with Bouillon/Diaz, his % would still lean towards Subban because the number of minutes is much smaller now then when it was during the first 20 games. That's why you can't draw those conclusions.

Also keep in mind, during the change in the PP Subban is more often than not the one whose on the ice while everyone else changes, which would give him ~10s of PP time with the second wave where he doesn't do anything besides a pass out of the zone and then change. So the 2nd wave would appear to have more TOI with Subban then they really do.

The numbers I gave were from the whole season not just the last 25 games, sorry if there was any confusion about that. Since as you've mentioned DD didn't get a lot of PP time during his slump, and Pleks doesn't get a lot of PP time now it seems like a relevant comparison.

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01-09-2014, 12:29 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Where are you getting this 60+ point pace from?

2010-2011: On pace for 42 pts
2011-2012: Had 60 pts
2012-2013: On pace for 48 pts
2013-2014: On pace for 40 pts

It looks much more like he's a 50pt player than a 60pt player.
Ah, I was referring to 'top PP time usage pace' this year. If you add up all the times he got top PP time on the team, what was his pace. Considering by the graph you showed in the earlier thread DD's numbers were very low during his slump(and justifiably so) it is not a period where he got 'top PP time'. Correct me if I'm wrong but the period he got top PP time is like last 25 games or so right? He's got 20ish points in that time. Over 82 games, that's above.

It should be taken with a grain of salt obviously but as I said in my post:

Quote:
Desharnais opportunity cost as a top PP option and true go to offensive center is like a 60+ point pace. DD's opportunity cost as a frequent PP option(overall) and easier minutes ES producer is about 40 points. Again, a distinction.
I brought both paces to the discussion. In reality, I feel DDs pace is somewhere in the middle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
I covered this in another post but I'd just point out, the difference is Toews, Bergeron still get lots of offensive opportunties. The problem is Desharnais is the main offensive line and gets as many offensive opportunities as possible. Chicago/Boston don't give them all to 1 line they split it amongst their lines which is exactly what we should be doing.

When you talk about removing 1 dimension that's exactly what we've done, we've removed the offensive dimension.
You don't just remove the offensive dimension by playing harder minutes. The whole idea is if you're a legit 2 way player you are capable of producing regardless. Less? obviously but capable just the same. If Plekanec played with Toews linemates he'd make more points, I'm certain of that. I'd argue Plekanec at easy ES minutes with Bourque and Gionta is less productive than Plekanec at current minutes with Marian Hossa and Sharp. I think linemates would make a bigger difference.

The way I see it if you can't produce vs top competition then you shouldn't be called a 'top line 2-way player'. It's essentially wrong then. Plekanec can. I've said before that PP time is entirely irrelevant to ES time. They should give whoever they want PP time. No one NEEDS to get PP time by default. Best offensive players should get it, that simple. If Plekanec is lights out then keep him there. If Eller looks dominant, keep him there. I have no issue with redistributing the PP time, none whatsoever.

BTW, thanks for pointing out times when I have acknowledged things that aren't pro-DD. We may disagree but some are more interested in saying "DD fanboy" than understanding I just have a different view of what helps the team win.

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01-09-2014, 12:32 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Since Plekanec's PP time has been greatly reduced, even if he now plays exclusively with Bouillon/Diaz, his % would still lean towards Subban because the number of minutes is much smaller now then when it was during the first 20 games. That's why you can't draw those conclusions.

Also keep in mind, during the change in the PP Subban is more often than not the one whose on the ice while everyone else changes, which would give him ~10s of PP time with the second wave where he doesn't do anything besides a pass out of the zone and then change. So the 2nd wave would appear to have more TOI with Subban then they really do.

The numbers I gave were from the whole season not just the last 25 games, sorry if there was any confusion about that. Since as you've mentioned DD didn't get a lot of PP time during his slump, and Pleks doesn't get a lot of PP time now it seems like a relevant comparison.
To avoid splitting hairs I think it's best to say the habs aren't top line talent heavy. It seems we're discussing who is more productive with skewed data than actually just agreeing on a simple fact: PP time is not exclusive. DD gets a lot some games and that's alright but in games where Plekanec and Eller aren't used for big time SH minutes they should jump in on the action, especially when they are having good games.

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01-09-2014, 12:37 PM
  #310
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Trade while he's playing good.

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01-09-2014, 12:37 PM
  #311
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Originally Posted by Habstraction View Post
I have never heard this one on this board…...


Maybe another 20 threads about DD will be needed.
I know it sounds like a broken record but its true..

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01-09-2014, 12:48 PM
  #312
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.

C'mon guys; its not because any other player can take the puck away
from DD by sneezing in his direction (and maybe causing him a concussion)
that he's a bad player.

He's just our very own Oompah - Loompah sized center...



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01-09-2014, 01:04 PM
  #313
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Bourque's Corsi Rel QoC is actually worse than Desharnais. Of course, his offensive zone starts are less. The advanced stats everyone uses for DD seem to indicate Bourque isn't suffering 5 on 5. His PP TOI/G is 1:40. After all this he's -4 with 7 points in 33 games. Not even close to being productive.
Bourque has been up/down the lineup and more often than not is spending time with struggling players. Hell his most common linemate is actually DD which means he had DD during his massive slump and no consistent linemates since. I'm not excusing his poor play, but it's hard for a good player to produce in those circumstances, so when you have a player like Bourque whose average at best you get crappy results.

Yes Bourque has not played well and needs to be better. But not getting consistent linemates is in part due to DD's line being untouchable. Spending over 40% of your ice time with a playmaking center who can only put up 1 assist in 19 games is also bad for your production.

If we gave Bourque DD's minutes would we be happy if he produced 40-50pts? Seems unlikely, we would complain that he gets all these easy minutes and doesn't produce very much and he's holding guys like Gallagher back who would do better. And it's not as far fetched as it sounds considering Bourque's career high is just as good as DD's (58 in 73 vs 60 in 81).

Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Plekanec played over 22 minutes yesterday with no overtime. In cases like this, you want to give him what, 25-27 minutes? If we're talking about +- a couple shifts, by all means but in the grand scheme Plekanec is used everywhere. It is more likely Eller who would get the couple of shifts extra. I feel Eller/DD should get similar ice time per game.

As I said, Plekanec had 2 of our 'top 6 wingers' with galchenyuk and gionta on his line which is 'acceptable'. Now, given Galchenyuk's injury unless briere can pass as a top 6 forward Gallagher should be removed from DD's line or we should acquire a legit top 6 winger. So, despite me called a 'DD fanboy'(lol) I just have a different opinion on maximizing the odds of success. With galchenyuk gone and assumption briere is a no show, it would be best for the team if Gallagher was removed and prust took his spot.
Plekanec has spent 88% of his 5vs5 time with Gionta, the next winger is Bournival at 23%, then Galchenyuk at 19% and Briere at 17%. I'm sure Moen & Prust are not too far behind either. So it's not at all true that he gets 2 of our top-6 wingers. He gets one average top-6 guy and a rotating cast of mostly 3rd liners.

As for ice time, it's less about total ice time for Plekanec and more about location/timing. When the other team ices the puck we will put out Desharnais line if at all possible. That shouldn't be the case, those types of opportunities, like the PP should be split amongst the 3 centers. If that means switching one of Desharnais's offensive zone faceoffs for a Plekanec neutral zone faceoffs then that's fine.

Eller should get much more ice time than DD. He's easily a much better player, he's as good/better than DD offensively and is also good defensively. But Desharnais played 3min more last game than him. So yeah we don't want to add too many minutes to Plekanec, but take away 3 of Desharnais easy minutes give some to Plekanec, some to Eller, and let Eller take a bit of Plekanec's defensive minutes.

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01-09-2014, 01:04 PM
  #314
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Bourque has been up/down the lineup and more often than not is spending time with struggling players. Hell his most common linemate is actually DD which means he had DD during his massive slump and no consistent linemates since. I'm not excusing his poor play, but it's hard for a good player to produce in those circumstances, so when you have a player like Bourque whose average at best you get crappy results.

Yes Bourque has not played well and needs to be better. But not getting consistent linemates is in part due to DD's line being untouchable. Spending over 40% of your ice time with a playmaking center who can only put up 1 assist in 19 games is also bad for your production.

If we gave Bourque DD's minutes would we be happy if he produced 40-50pts? Seems unlikely, we would complain that he gets all these easy minutes and doesn't produce very much and he's holding guys like Gallagher back who would do better. And it's not as far fetched as it sounds considering Bourque's career high is just as good as DD's (58 in 73 vs 60 in 81).



Plekanec has spent 88% of his 5vs5 time with Gionta, the next winger is Bournival at 23%, then Galchenyuk at 19% and Briere at 17%. I'm sure Moen & Prust are not too far behind either. So it's not at all true that he gets 2 of our top-6 wingers. He gets one average top-6 guy and a rotating cast of mostly 3rd liners.

As for ice time, it's less about total ice time for Plekanec and more about location/timing. When the other team ices the puck we will put out Desharnais line if at all possible. That shouldn't be the case, those types of opportunities, like the PP should be split amongst the 3 centers. If that means switching one of Desharnais's offensive zone faceoffs for a Plekanec neutral zone faceoffs then that's fine.

Eller should get much more ice time than DD. He's easily a much better player, he's as good/better than DD offensively and is also good defensively. But Desharnais played 3min more last game than him. So yeah we don't want to add too many minutes to Plekanec, but take away 3 of Desharnais easy minutes give some to Plekanec, some to Eller, and let Eller take a bit of Plekanec's defensive minutes.

He is.

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01-09-2014, 01:07 PM
  #315
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hard to see why so many players don't want to play in Montreal

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01-09-2014, 01:11 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
To avoid splitting hairs I think it's best to say the habs aren't top line talent heavy. It seems we're discussing who is more productive with skewed data than actually just agreeing on a simple fact: PP time is not exclusive. DD gets a lot some games and that's alright but in games where Plekanec and Eller aren't used for big time SH minutes they should jump in on the action, especially when they are having good games.
And do you think that is what's happening now? Because from what I see the only PP time they get is whatever's left after giving DD the maximum he can.

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01-09-2014, 01:15 PM
  #317
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He is.
outside 2 or 3 games, in december and january DD had more ice time per game...

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01-09-2014, 01:21 PM
  #318
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hard to see why so many players don't want to play in Montreal
Yeah.. especially when your first center is David Desharnais.

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01-09-2014, 01:22 PM
  #319
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He is.
Last 5 games.

DD // Eller

19:16 // 16:28
17:44 // 14:55
20:58 // 15:31
17:52 // 17:03
16:49 // 14:11

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01-09-2014, 01:35 PM
  #320
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It's not anomaly...it happened last year...
No, it didn't.

BTW, Eller has 1 goal and 4 assists in his last 20 games. That's a whopping 20 point pace for an 82 game season.


Last edited by Cyclones Rock: 01-09-2014 at 01:46 PM.
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01-09-2014, 01:42 PM
  #321
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Ah, I was referring to 'top PP time usage pace' this year. If you add up all the times he got top PP time on the team, what was his pace. Considering by the graph you showed in the earlier thread DD's numbers were very low during his slump(and justifiably so) it is not a period where he got 'top PP time'. Correct me if I'm wrong but the period he got top PP time is like last 25 games or so right? He's got 20ish points in that time. Over 82 games, that's above.

It should be taken with a grain of salt obviously but as I said in my post:



I brought both paces to the discussion. In reality, I feel DDs pace is somewhere in the middle.
2013-2014: 2nd in PP TOI (Most used center)
2012-2013: 3rd in PP TOI (3 min behind 1st)
2011-2012: 2nd in PP TOI (1 min behind 1st)
2010-2011: 7th in PP TOI (Played half the year)

So appart from the 1st season where he was a rookie he's been getting top pp time. And as a rookie he still got decent minutes.

So even if we ignore 2010-2011, it's a 40pt pace, a 49pt pace and a 60pt pace. So he still looks like a 50pt player more than a 60pt player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
You don't just remove the offensive dimension by playing harder minutes. The whole idea is if you're a legit 2 way player you are capable of producing regardless. Less? obviously but capable just the same. If Plekanec played with Toews linemates he'd make more points, I'm certain of that. I'd argue Plekanec at easy ES minutes with Bourque and Gionta is less productive than Plekanec at current minutes with Marian Hossa and Sharp. I think linemates would make a bigger difference.

The way I see it if you can't produce vs top competition then you shouldn't be called a 'top line 2-way player'. It's essentially wrong then. Plekanec can. I've said before that PP time is entirely irrelevant to ES time. They should give whoever they want PP time. No one NEEDS to get PP time by default. Best offensive players should get it, that simple. If Plekanec is lights out then keep him there. If Eller looks dominant, keep him there. I have no issue with redistributing the PP time, none whatsoever.

BTW, thanks for pointing out times when I have acknowledged things that aren't pro-DD. We may disagree but some are more interested in saying "DD fanboy" than understanding I just have a different view of what helps the team win.
And both Plekanec and to a lesser extent Eller have produced even though they go up against top lines. The better the linemates the more they produce, so it becomes a question of do we produce more by spreading out the offence on 2 or even 3 lines or put our top guys on 1 line.

Historically most teams will choose to spread out the offence because it's harder to defend against. We're not doing that, which would be fine if we were winning but it's been a month since we've been a .500 team so it's past time to make a change which means splitting up DD's line and the roles.

Also if your scoring goals going up against top lines, it means those top lines are defending rather than attacking which means less goals being given up as well. So if Pacioretty can produce similar goals/possession # with Plekanec then it's much better for the team then him potentially producing more goals in softer minutes.

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01-09-2014, 01:57 PM
  #322
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Originally Posted by Odelein24 View Post
Last 5 games.

DD // Eller

19:16 // 16:28
17:44 // 14:55
20:58 // 15:31
17:52 // 17:03
16:49 // 14:11
That's pretty good minutes for a third line centre.


Kidding apart, DD and Maxpac are about the only guys who generated some offense in the last 10-15 games.

Is Eller used wrongly ? I dunno. MT doesn't have much tools in his toolbox and Eller ios excellent in a defensive role.

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01-09-2014, 02:07 PM
  #323
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That's pretty good minutes for a third line centre.


Kidding apart, DD and Maxpac are about the only guys who generated some offense in the last 10-15 games.

Is Eller used wrongly ? I dunno. MT doesn't have much tools in his toolbox and Eller ios excellent in a defensive role.
You know why we're a 1 scoring line team ? for this exact reason : well Plekanec is good defensively so yeah we ask him to play a shutdown role... Eller ? he's good defensively (not as good as Plek but still) so we use him in such a role too...

1 average scoring line (scoring duo I'd say)
2 shutdown line
1 grinding line, sort of

surprised we're not scoring a ton ?

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01-09-2014, 02:15 PM
  #324
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Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
You know why we're a 1 scoring line team ? for this exact reason : well Plekanec is good defensively so yeah we ask him to play a shutdown role... Eller ? he's good defensively (not as good as Plek but still) so we use him in such a role too...

1 average scoring line (scoring duo I'd say)
2 shutdown line
1 grinding line, sort of

surprised we're not scoring a ton ?
Last year they were scroring way more, but also giving up way more goals. MT decided that he wanted a better tight checking team, more defensive. We can agree or disaggree with that "new" style, but they are still winning games and will "possibly" make the Playoffs once more. I know they are ****ing boring to watch..............

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01-09-2014, 02:21 PM
  #325
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Originally Posted by Habstraction View Post
Last year they were scroring way more, but also giving up way more goals. MT decided that he wanted a better tight checking team, more defensive. We can agree or disaggree with that "new" style, but they are still winning games and will "possibly" make the Playoffs once more. I know they are ****ing boring to watch..............
since he decided to make his changes after 20/25 games, Eller, Gallagher, Bournival, Galchenyuk and a few others ALL saw their production drop... we also saw the team giving 3+ goals way more often...

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