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The Habs Cup Contention Window Can Begin This Year

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Old
01-12-2014, 01:32 PM
  #1
DAChampion
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The Habs Cup Contention Window Can Begin This Year

Since approximately 1994, the Montreal Canadiens have been a team of the past and a team of the future, but virtually never a team of the present. In the early 2000s people were excited about Hossa, Perezhogin, and Hainsey. When I first started posting on boards, we were excited for a future core of Higgins, Komisarek, Chipchura, Kostitsyn, etc. Later on we were excited for a future core of Pacioretty, Subban, and Price. Now people are salivating at the future core Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Beaulieu, Tinordi, and De La Rose. I used to buy into the cult of tomorrow, in fact I posted one of the most flamed threads in recent hfboards history: The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs.

I argue that period is over, and that we all need to start thinking differently, to stop thinking about "competing in five years", and to think about competing right now, that the Habs can start winning right now. I make three arguments for this: the conference is weak, the team's core is mature and unlikely to get vastly better, and we're too good to tank.

1) The Eastern Conference is weak.
Bergevin has done nothing to deserve this good luck, but given that it's there, he might as well take advantage. The Western Conference has 5 teams with 60 points or more (Chicago, St-Louis, Colorado, Anaheim, San Jose) whereas the Eastern Conference has 1 (Pittsburgh). The 5th place team in the East would be 10th in the West. I never bought the argument that "anything can happen once you make the playoffs", but I am willing to buy the argument that "anything can happen once you make the finals". It's much easier to be lucky one time than to be lucky four times.

I can't argue that Bergevin has the tools to build the best team in the league now, but I think he has the tools to tweak the Habs and help them come out of the conference. Boston, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh are teams ranked above us now, and I think those are teams we can beat. They're also teams that I don't think will improve much in the coming years, neither will Detroit or Washington who are next in the rankings, so this favourable situation may last a couple seasons.

2) The Habs Core is Mature, and is Unlikely to Get Much Better in the Near Future.
Within the Habs core, I see three players who are in late-prime or past-prime (Plekanec, Markov, Gorges); five players who are in early-to-mid prime (Price, Emelin, Pacioretty, Eller, Subban) and two players who are in pre-prime (Galchenyuk, Gallagher). For the core to get "much" better in the near-future, the pre-prime players would have to improve "much" faster than Plekanec, Markov, and Gorges decline... I don't think we should count on that. I think that's a good bet but not a great bet. Gallagher might not improve at all, and Galchenyuk's improvement over Plekanec will probably be there, but he won't be replacing a slouch.

Meanwhile... Price is as good as he's going to be. He's got a .930 save percentage, it doesn't get much better than that except for flukes. Pacioretty as a goal-scorer is 24 and thus is at his peak, since the peak of goal-scoring is ages 22-26. Subban probably won't improve much from being a Norris winner. We have these assets, these assets we've dreamt of having back in the 2000s, it would be pathetic not to try and win.

3) We're Too Good to Tank
This logically follows from the other points, but it's worth going over. Montreal drafted McCarron at 25th overall last year, and we can expect more of that in 2014 and 2015. "Building through the draft", in and of itself, will not help Montreal win in the period 2014-2017. The best draft selections after the top-10 typically take a minimum of 3 years prior to becoming impact players. For example, Subban was drafted in 2007, and began to help in the 2010 playoffs. McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Eller were drafted in the same class and took 1 or 2 years longer.

What our draft picks can do, is help us remain a good team once Plekanec, Markov, Pacioretty are either fading memories or playing in support roles like Brian Gionta currently is, or give us assets in the following years to help us acquire missing pieces. That is how Los Angeles became a contender: They traded Colton Teubert, Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds, Jack Johnson, a 1st rounder, a 1st rounder, for Dustin Penner, Jeff Carter, and Mike Richards. That's part of what put them over the top. The Habs don't have those kinds of assets now -- acquiring Bobby Ryan might have meant the bankruptcy of the farm -- but they might in 2 years.


Last edited by DAChampion: 01-12-2014 at 01:42 PM.
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01-12-2014, 01:56 PM
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no... they're not contender

and I wont waste my time(once again) explaining why

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01-12-2014, 01:58 PM
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I agree that our time to make a push is coming up now, but I don't see it as a positive thing. You're right that our conference is weaker, but we're a part of that conference and we fit right in in that we're a weaker team that most of the western teams.

Our core is definitely approaching its prime now, and some of the important players are even getting a bit older, but I don't think we have the skill needed to be a legitimate threat yet. So do we make small changes and hope for the best, or do we continuously trade our aging players for young guys who may or may not pan out?

I don't think we're a bad team, I just think that we're in the same spot as 1/3 of the rest of the league, we're caught in the middle of the pack and it's hard to get out of here. We're too good to consider a major overhaul, and we're too bad to have a legitimate impact in the playoffs. How do we get out of the cycle?

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01-12-2014, 01:58 PM
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Lafleurs Guy
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We've finally got some pieces but we're not there. We just aren't.

Too many holes on D and up front. If we'd gotten say Jagr and a decent blueliner then maybe we could look at doing something at the deadline but we're... still at the 'in between stage'.

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01-12-2014, 01:58 PM
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Smokey Thompson
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I agree. We have a core that is able to make a deep playoff run.

Patches, Subban, Eller, Pleks, Markov, Emelin, Galchenyuk, Gallagher.

Elite goaltender in Price.

We have good role players and defensive forwards in Moen, Prust, White, Gionta (I wish he'd play a more defensive role).

However, the supporting cast on this team is sub par. And some players in the supporting cast are not viewed/played as supporting members, but rather as big minute core guys. I realize that last night, the passengers on this team played a great game, but it is still only one game. It would be short sighted to believe that they are no longer passengers.

Two needs going into the playoffs for this team are a top6 winger with size/speed and an upgrade on defense. Murray and/or Bouillon will be easily exploited in the playoffs.

Your point about the East being weak is particularly true. I know that this team can put up a good fight vs Boston, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Detroit. I know this team can beat the Caps, the Rangers, the Leafs, and the Canes. I know this team would probably lose to the Flyers.

However, I also know that the chip 'n chase team that we've been watching for a while now (before last night) would probably lose in the first round to any team. If this team can build off of last night's win and continue to play a high pace, possession game for 60 minutes, we'll be fine.

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01-12-2014, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feintastic View Post
no... they're not contender

and I wont waste my time(once again) explaining why
You should re-read his post, he's not saying we're a contender, he's saying that our window to try and contend starts now, given the age of our players and the skill of our conference. It's up to us to decide whether that's a good thing (meaning, we can content) or a bad thing (not good enough to contend with our present team)

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01-12-2014, 02:07 PM
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I miss Bégin. Get him back and now our Cup Contention Window will really open IMO.


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01-12-2014, 02:10 PM
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We are lacking a McDonagh (top defenseman that can shutdown top line and play 30+ min) along with Subban.
It's sad to think we gave it away. We are elite in goals, alright offensively but too small, and mediocre defensively.

We already did trade away too many future asset for a team tha bob gainey considered as contender (2008 1st, 2009 2nd, 2010 2nd, 2011 2nd and fricking Ryan McDonagh) I still think we have to stick with the plan, no irrational trade as our core is still very young.

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01-12-2014, 02:12 PM
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Hugo Sham
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Habs need another 2/3 slot Dman + a top 6 RW to even think about getting out of East - and that's not even surviving a 7 games series vs one of Stl,Chi,Ana,Stl or SJ

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01-12-2014, 02:16 PM
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The contention window has started with the franchise player, Price. Its been on since about 2-3 years now. Most of them, wasted by poor management.

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01-12-2014, 02:16 PM
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DAChampion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
We are lacking a McDonagh (top defenseman that can shutdown top line and play 30+ min) along with Subban.
It's sad to think we gave it away. We are elite in goals, alright offensively but too small, and mediocre defensively.

We already did trade away too many future asset for a team tha bob gainey considered as contender (2008 1st, 2009 2nd, 2010 2nd, 2011 2nd and fricking Ryan McDonagh) I still think we have to stick with the plan, no irrational trade our core is still very young.
I don't think we should trade a 1st rounder for a rental, as Pittsburgh does every single year. If we trade a 1st or a good prospect, it should be for someone who might help us for years to come, like how Los Angeles picked up Jeff Carter.

What we're missing now is a better bottom-4 defenseman. That might be Pateryn. Alternatively, I remind this thread that a few years back we got James Wisniewski for a 2nd rounder. Also, I'd like an upgrade on Ryan White, e has 2 points and is -6 in 33 games. I don't love White as much as a lot of other forum members.

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01-12-2014, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feintastic View Post
no... they're not contender

and I wont waste my time(once again) explaining why
He's not implying we are are a likely contender. He's saying we have the opportunity to, and we should take advantage of the window while we can.

-The Habs are, despite the protests of many here, an above average team. The NHL is an extremely close league talent-wise and a few moves could be the difference between crashing and punching above our weight to take anyone out.

-The East will never be weaker than it is now. You get to the cup finals and anything is possible.

-We have core players in their prime who will be harder to replace in a few years than given credit for. This includes Price.

-Other younger core players are on cap-friendly salaries. Subban, Galchenyuk, Eller, and Gallagher are absolute bargains for their talent, and it's unlikely we will have this many bargains playing big roles at the same time anytime soon.


Nobody should be planning the parade anytime soon, we are still a team with major holes on the wings and defense, and yes, the lack of size causes us to struggle to maintain possession against certain teams, and I'm not optimistic we have the management with the ambition to go for it now, but it makes a lot more sense than it does to tank and squander what we do have. This isn't the 70s or 80s anymore, you aren't either a bottom feeder or a dynasty, you play to win the game.

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01-12-2014, 02:22 PM
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Without the Gomez trade, we might have been there. I don't think McDonagh-Higgins would have prevented the catastrophic season that allowed us to draft Galchenyuk. So we'd basically have a top-2 D and a great 3rd liner for free. Add a couple of complementary pieces and we'd be contending.

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01-12-2014, 02:22 PM
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We seem to be 2 pcs away from really being up there with Pitts and the Broons...a scorer, and a rugged # 3 dman who can eat minutes like Subban and Markov...Right now we seem to be a mediocre above avg team...right now.

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01-12-2014, 02:31 PM
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Mrb1p
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A coaching change might do wonders also. See LA three years ago.

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01-12-2014, 02:38 PM
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I agree.

1st pick should be used to acquire a young vet around 25. Proposed Myers in the trade thread but there can be other options.

A player like Steve Begin could help us. Not sure why you troll and disrespect a player who gave everything he had for this team.

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01-12-2014, 02:40 PM
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Let's look at our team and prospects.

Subban is an elite #1 defensemen, Gorges has a few years left of solid defensive play, Emelin will be a nice #4 defensemen for years to come and Markov doesn't have much left. Our top 4 defence will look something like this:

Subban - XXX
Gorges - Emelin

for the bottom pairing we have players who can play as early as next season. A pairing of Tinordi - Beaulieu may be a bit too inexperienced so Markov could be eased into a lesser role to act as a stopgap, Diaz could play the same role if we resign him. So basically on defence all we are missing is a top 2 defensemen. Hopefully either Tinordi or Beaulieu can develop into one, I see Tinordi as a good partner to Subban if he continues to progress. However if none of Tinordi or Beaulieu pan out we could be in trouble. Finding a #2 defensemen will not be easy.

On offense our core top 9 will look like:

Pacioretty - Galchenyuk - Gallagher
XXX - Eller - Bournival
XXX - Plekanec - XXX

Our first line could be a serious scoring threat. I believe Bournival has shown flashes of being a solid top 6 player. So we're missing another top 6 winger and two third line wingers. As for prospects who can potentially fill a spot on the second line: Collberg/Mccarron/Andrighetto/Hudon/Lehkonen/De La rose/Reway. I believe one of these will pan out and develop in time and at least two of these will be able to play on the third line. However, I'm not very confident in this group. If we sign or trade for a solid top 6 winger I believe the third line will be taken care of by that prospect group.

Our goaltending is elite, we have Price.


So in order to be contenders MB will have to find a top pairing defensemen if Tinordi or Beaulieu aren't good enough. He will also have to find a top 6 winger who can score goals. If MB can accomplish these two things, we will be contenders. Let's see if he has what it takes.


Last edited by Willis Jenks: 01-12-2014 at 02:46 PM.
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01-12-2014, 02:41 PM
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I agree.

1st pick should be used to acquire a young vet around 25. Proposed Myers in the trade thread but there can be other options.
Myers isnt à good target. Hes not there in development. We need someone drafted around 05-08 that is ready for prime time

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01-12-2014, 02:48 PM
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Since approximately 1994, the Montreal Canadiens have been a team of the past and a team of the future, but virtually never a team of the present. In the early 2000s people were excited about Hossa, Perezhogin, and Hainsey. When I first started posting on boards, we were excited for a future core of Higgins, Komisarek, Chipchura, Kostitsyn, etc. Later on we were excited for a future core of Pacioretty, Subban, and Price. Now people are salivating at the future core Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Beaulieu, Tinordi, and De La Rose. I used to buy into the cult of tomorrow, in fact I posted one of the most flamed threads in recent hfboards history: The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs.

I argue that period is over, and that we all need to start thinking differently, to stop thinking about "competing in five years", and to think about competing right now, that the Habs can start winning right now. I make three arguments for this: the conference is weak, the team's core is mature and unlikely to get vastly better, and we're too good to tank.

1) The Eastern Conference is weak.
Bergevin has done nothing to deserve this good luck, but given that it's there, he might as well take advantage. The Western Conference has 5 teams with 60 points or more (Chicago, St-Louis, Colorado, Anaheim, San Jose) whereas the Eastern Conference has 1 (Pittsburgh). The 5th place team in the East would be 10th in the West. I never bought the argument that "anything can happen once you make the playoffs", but I am willing to buy the argument that "anything can happen once you make the finals". It's much easier to be lucky one time than to be lucky four times.

I can't argue that Bergevin has the tools to build the best team in the league now, but I think he has the tools to tweak the Habs and help them come out of the conference. Boston, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh are teams ranked above us now, and I think those are teams we can beat. They're also teams that I don't think will improve much in the coming years, neither will Detroit or Washington who are next in the rankings, so this favourable situation may last a couple seasons.

2) The Habs Core is Mature, and is Unlikely to Get Much Better in the Near Future.
Within the Habs core, I see three players who are in late-prime or past-prime (Plekanec, Markov, Gorges); five players who are in early-to-mid prime (Price, Emelin, Pacioretty, Eller, Subban) and two players who are in pre-prime (Galchenyuk, Gallagher). For the core to get "much" better in the near-future, the pre-prime players would have to improve "much" faster than Plekanec, Markov, and Gorges decline... I don't think we should count on that. I think that's a good bet but not a great bet. Gallagher might not improve at all, and Galchenyuk's improvement over Plekanec will probably be there, but he won't be replacing a slouch.

Meanwhile... Price is as good as he's going to be. He's got a .930 save percentage, it doesn't get much better than that except for flukes. Pacioretty as a goal-scorer is 24 and thus is at his peak, since the peak of goal-scoring is ages 22-26. Subban probably won't improve much from being a Norris winner. We have these assets, these assets we've dreamt of having back in the 2000s, it would be pathetic not to try and win.

3) We're Too Good to Tank
This logically follows from the other points, but it's worth going over. Montreal drafted McCarron at 25th overall last year, and we can expect more of that in 2014 and 2015. "Building through the draft", in and of itself, will not help Montreal win in the period 2014-2017. The best draft selections after the top-10 typically take a minimum of 3 years prior to becoming impact players. For example, Subban was drafted in 2007, and began to help in the 2010 playoffs. McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Eller were drafted in the same class and took 1 or 2 years longer.

What our draft picks can do, is help us remain a good team once Plekanec, Markov, Pacioretty are either fading memories or playing in support roles like Brian Gionta currently is, or give us assets in the following years to help us acquire missing pieces. That is how Los Angeles became a contender: They traded Colton Teubert, Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds, Jack Johnson, a 1st rounder, a 1st rounder, for Dustin Penner, Jeff Carter, and Mike Richards. That's part of what put them over the top. The Habs don't have those kinds of assets now -- acquiring Bobby Ryan might have meant the bankruptcy of the farm -- but they might in 2 years.
The Habs core is in its early prime and likely to improve. Yeah, Subban, Pacioretty and Price are ready now, but they lack a top-tier supporting cast. Like it or not, the smart thing is to stay patient for another couple of years, while Galchenyuk, Bournival improve, Dmen step up from Hamilton, and at least a couple of new forwards are acquired from... wherever.

The only downside to waiting revolves around Markov, and whether he he'll be more valuable as an aging star in two/three years or as a trade asset this year.

Until this team has stronger, more consistent scoring, we won't last through four playoff series.

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01-12-2014, 02:57 PM
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Kriss E
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Bergevin should have been more active in pursuing our needs last summer. Instead he wasted it away grabbing Briere and Murray.

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01-12-2014, 03:00 PM
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Bergevin should have been more active in pursuing our needs last summer. Instead he wasted it away grabbing Briere and Murray.
very easy to say but other than stop gaps what was availble?

as for trades it takes two to tango, and if your partner is asking for the moon it makes it hard to danse

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01-12-2014, 03:09 PM
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Chris Cutter
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If Price keeps playing the way he is, we can upset anyone. We just need a great PP and that's a recipe that can win you the cup.

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01-12-2014, 03:10 PM
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I'm not obsessed with size, but we are definitely too small up front. If Gallagher is considered part of our core, then you have to replace at least one, if not two of Briere, Gionta and DD. Nothing specifically against any of these guys, they can all contribute to a certain extent. But you can't have 4 diminutive players in your top 9. That's just too much (or might I say 'not enough').

Regarding the D squad, I'd say we could be there if two of Tinordi, Pateyrn and Beaulieu make it to the big league and contribute in the next 1-2 years.

In goals, we're good.

With some serious luck, we could get out of the East not too banged up, but that's about it.

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01-12-2014, 03:17 PM
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Mrb1p
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If Price keeps playing the way he is, we can upset anyone. We just need a great PP and that's a recipe that can win you the cup.
A recipe on which we relied for the last twenty years.

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01-12-2014, 03:19 PM
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Chris Cutter
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A recipe on which we relied for the last twenty years.
Price is better (puck-handling, rebounds, recovery) and more durable than Halak was. In 2010, Markov was injured in the 2nd round. Make a move for a gritty top 4 guy a la Matt Greene and add a forward like Stafford and it could get interesting. These are moves that won't hurt us long term either.

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